The Reserve Bank of India monitors trends in
various macroeconomic indicators in the process of
conducting monetary policy in India. However, most
of these indicators are available with a time lag. In
order to bridge the gap, the Reserve Bank conducts a
few forward looking surveys1 covering corporate and
household sectors. The corporate sector being one of
the key sectors in an economy, sentiments that drive
current and near term business decisions is a key
information for policy formulation.
The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting
the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) for the Indian
manufacturing sector on a quarterly basis since 1998.
The survey captures the assessment of business
sentiments for the current quarter and expectations for
the ensuing quarter, based on qualitative responses on a
set of parameters pertaining to the demand conditions,
financial conditions, employment condition and price
situation. The survey schedule is canvassed among a
fixed panel of 2,000 manufacturing companies, mostly
with paid-up capital above `5 million, representing a
good mix of size and industry groups. The panel is
periodically updated with addition of new companies
or deletion of closed/merged companies as required.
This article analyses the survey responses for four
quarters from April-June 2012 to January-March 2013.
The response rate lied between 65-78 percent during
this period.
I.1 Business sentiments weakened progressively
The business Expectation Index (BEI) which
is computed as a weighted average of net responses on nine select performance parameter2 gives a single
snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter. For
each of the survey round, two indices are computed -
one based on assessment of current quarter and another
based on expectations of next quarter.
During the year under study, BEI (based on
assessment) moderated in the first two quarters
when it reached a level seen at the onset of financial
crisis in Q3:2008-09 and moved up marginally in
the next two quarters. BEI (based on outlook) also
indicated similar trend but recorded a sharp drop in
Q1:2013-14. It is observed that the index based on
expectation has generally been higher than the index
based on assessment and the gap has widened since
2011-12 (Chart 1). The BEI has still remained in the
growth terrain (i.e., above 100, which is the threshold
separating contraction from expansion).
I.2 Demand conditions weakened
The survey collects perceptions of Indian
manufacturers on demand conditions through various
parameters, namely, production, order books, capacity
utilisation, inventory, exports and imports. In respect
of most of the above parameters, outlook during FY: 2012-13 remained weak and it deteriorated further
for Q1: 2013-14. Analysis of data from the previous
survey rounds indicates that one-quarter ahead outlook
is generally able to track the actual movement in the
case of most of the parameters (Box I).
I.2.1 The net response3 on production dropped sharply
in assessment quarter of Q1:2012-13 and it remained
flat in the remaining quarters. One quarter ahead
outlook also showed lower optimism in Q1 and Q2
of 2012-13. Though expectations improved modestly
during the next two quarters, the same declined sharply
for Q1:2013-14 (Chart 2). The pattern was similar
for order books also (Chart 3). However, positive net
response is indicative of continued growth.
I.2.2 Majority of the respondents (around 55-60 per
cent) expected capacity utilisation to remain the same in FY:2012-13 and the net response remained flat during
this period. However, outlook for Q1:2013-14 revealed
lower optimism (Chart 4).
Box I: Validation of Expectation response with succeeding Assessment response
The survey collects assessment for current quarter
and expectations for next quarter on various business
parameters. In order to examine, how close is the
assessment for a given quarter to corresponding
expectation captured a quarter back, correlation
between the assessment during the current survey
round and expectations for that parameter given
during the last survey round is computed for some
major parameters (Chart A). The survey responses
during Q1:2000-01 to Q4:2012-13 (52 quarters) is taken for this validation. It is found that these
parameters are positively correlated though the extent
of correlation varies. Assessment and expectations for
major parameters under demand conditions, financial
conditions and price situation are highly correlated
implying that three months ahead expectations nearly
coincide with assessment given during current quarter.
This indicates that the expectations captured for each
quarter by the survey, is a very good lead indicator for
its subsequent behaviour.
 I.2.3 Outlook on exports growth remained less
optimistic throughout the year (Chart 5). Lack of
domestic demand also impacted the growth in imports
and net response fell during the year (Chart 6). Outlook
though remained positive for Q1:2013-14, indicated further decline. Lack of domestic and external demand
had been reported to be a major constraint by majority
of the reporting companies.
I.2.4 According to the survey results, most of the
responding firms (about 80 per cent) reported ‘no
change’ in the inventory levels of both raw materials
and finished goods on a quarterly basis. Of the
remaining, slightly higher percentage of respondents reported carrying above average level of inventory
during the year.
I.3 Financial Situation yet to revive
The survey assesses sentiments about the
financial situations based on several parameters. While
the respondents are required to evaluate the overall
financial situation, responses are specifically obtained
on availability of finance, cost of external finance and
profit margin.
I.3.1 Optimism level for overall financial situation had
been lower since 2011-12, and the outlook deteriorated
further for Q1: 2013-14 (Chart 7). During Q1:2012-13
to Q3:2012-13, majority of companies (89 per cent)
reported their availability of finance either unchanged
or improve. Expectations too reveal almost similar
trend, with majority of the respondents expecting the
availability of finance to remain stagnant (Chart 8).
I.3.2 In Q4:2012-13, the question on availability
of finance was divided into three questions viz.,
availability of finance from internal accruals, availability
of finance from banks and other financial institutions
and availability of finance from overseas (if applicable).
It was seen that majority of the companies responded
no change for all the three questions. Only less than 10 per cent of respondents expected the situation to
worsen in Q1:2013-14 (Table-11(a)).
I.3.3 The sentiments on cost of finance have remained
negative for a long time and the lowest level was
reached in Q3:2011-12. The net response improved
gradually thereafter and percentage of respondents who
experienced higher cost of finance has been declining
throughout the year (Chart 9).
I.3.4 On profit margin, a higher percentage of
respondents reported either decrease or no change
during the year. As regards outlook, though the
sentiments of corporates were evenly balanced, the
net response dropped substantially for Q1:2013-14
(Chart 10).
I.4 Employment and Price Situation
The survey seeks from the companies their
perceptions on employment. Generally, 70-75 per
cent of companies responded ‘no change’ in the
employment level and only less than 10 per cent of
the manufacturing companies witnessed a contraction
in their employment levels during the year under
study. As regards the price situation, the survey
elicits current assessment/one-quarter ahead outlook
on cost of raw material and selling prices from the
respondent companies. The sentiment on cost of raw
materials, though remained negative during the year,
showed some improvement as compared with the
previous year. However, a much lower percentage of
respondents reported/expected rise in selling price,
which could be an indication of continued lack of
pricing power which is in consistent with falling profit
margins (Chart 11 and 12).
1.5 Conclusion
The weakening growth in demand conditions
and the BEI huddling around the levels seen at crisis
period of Q2:2008-09, indicates that the growth
of manufacturing sector has been plummeting
throughout the year. Lack of domestic and external
demand along with shortage of power persisting as
the major constraints in production, weighed to this
modest pace of growth.
Table 1: Assessment & Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses) @ |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
45.6 |
12.5 |
41.9 |
33.1 |
49.8 |
9.5 |
40.7 |
40.4 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
38.8 |
18.5 |
42.7 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
10.6 |
44.0 |
34.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
37.9 |
19.2 |
42.9 |
18.8 |
45.4 |
11.7 |
42.9 |
33.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
37.5 |
18.8 |
43.7 |
18.6 |
46.1 |
10.4 |
43.4 |
35.7 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
36.8 |
18.2 |
45.0 |
18.6 |
46.3 |
9.2 |
44.4 |
37.1 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
38.3 |
13.8 |
47.9 |
24.4 |
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. |
Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order books |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
38.9 |
14.1 |
47.0 |
24.8 |
42.3 |
11.0 |
46.7 |
31.3 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
34.2 |
17.3 |
48.5 |
16.9 |
39.3 |
9.8 |
50.9 |
29.5 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
31.9 |
19.8 |
48.3 |
12.0 |
41.0 |
11.1 |
47.9 |
29.9 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
32.0 |
19.2 |
48.8 |
12.9 |
41.2 |
10.9 |
48.0 |
30.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
32.7 |
18.6 |
48.7 |
14.0 |
40.0 |
10.2 |
49.8 |
29.8 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
35.5 |
13.2 |
51.2 |
22.3 |
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
15.9 |
5.4 |
78.7 |
10.5 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
79.8 |
7.3 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
17.0 |
5.7 |
77.3 |
11.3 |
13.3 |
4.6 |
82.1 |
8.8 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
18.7 |
5.6 |
75.7 |
13.1 |
14.6 |
6.2 |
79.2 |
8.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
18.8 |
4.4 |
76.8 |
14.3 |
14.4 |
7.0 |
78.6 |
7.4 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
19.3 |
4.7 |
75.9 |
14.6 |
14.6 |
4.5 |
80.9 |
10.1 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
16.9 |
5.3 |
77.7 |
11.6 |
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
Table 4: Assessment & Expectations for Capacity Utilisation |
(Percentage responses) |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Q1:2012-13 |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Q1:2013-14 |
Capacity Utilisation (CU)-(main product) |
Increase |
25.8 |
24.0 |
23.3 |
23.7 |
30.4 |
30.4 |
31.1 |
24.9 |
No Change |
57.1 |
58.3 |
59.0 |
60.5 |
57.6 |
59.3 |
59.6 |
62.0 |
Decrease |
17.1 |
17.7 |
17.6 |
15.9 |
12.0 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
13.1 |
Net Response |
8.6 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
7.8 |
18.4 |
20.0 |
21.7 |
11.7 |
Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
Above normal |
10.1 |
9.7 |
9.1 |
10.0 |
11.4 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
Normal |
71.9 |
71.3 |
70.9 |
71.3 |
75.6 |
77.4 |
76.6 |
74.5 |
Below Normal |
17.9 |
18.9 |
20.0 |
18.7 |
13.0 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
15.0 |
Net Response |
-7.8 |
-9.2 |
-10.8 |
-8.7 |
-1.5 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-4.4 |
Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
More than adequate |
12.4 |
13.1 |
14.2 |
13.4 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
13.7 |
Adequate |
79.6 |
79.0 |
77.5 |
77.4 |
80.0 |
80.5 |
79.6 |
78.4 |
Less than adequate |
8.0 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
7.4 |
7.9 |
Net Response |
4.4 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
27.8 |
13.6 |
58.6 |
14.2 |
29.0 |
10.4 |
60.6 |
18.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
25.7 |
14.9 |
59.4 |
10.8 |
30.1 |
9.4 |
60.5 |
20.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
25.3 |
15.2 |
59.5 |
10.0 |
31.0 |
10.5 |
58.5 |
20.5 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
24.3 |
15.0 |
60.6 |
9.3 |
29.0 |
10.9 |
60.1 |
18.0 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
25.9 |
15.0 |
59.1 |
10.8 |
28.5 |
10.1 |
61.4 |
18.4 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
27.1 |
10.4 |
62.5 |
16.7 |
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic |
Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Import |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
14.4 |
23.0 |
7.5 |
69.4 |
15.5 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
21.8 |
10.1 |
68.1 |
11.6 |
22.4 |
6.7 |
70.8 |
15.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.5 |
9.8 |
22.9 |
7.4 |
69.7 |
15.5 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
19.0 |
10.2 |
70.7 |
8.8 |
22.1 |
8.1 |
69.8 |
14.0 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
19.8 |
11.5 |
68.8 |
8.3 |
20.9 |
7.4 |
71.7 |
13.5 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.4 |
8.5 |
71.1 |
11.9 |
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic |
Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods) |
(Percentage responses) |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Q1:2012-13 |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Q1:2013-14 |
Inventory of raw material |
Below average |
8.0 |
6.9 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
6.6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
Average |
81.0 |
80.9 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
83.7 |
85.2 |
83.9 |
84.2 |
Above average |
11.0 |
12.3 |
12.6 |
12.2 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
Net Response |
-2.9 |
-5.4 |
-5.0 |
-4.3 |
-3.1 |
-4.7 |
-5.1 |
-3.3 |
Inventory of Finished goods |
Below average |
6.8 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
6.1 |
7.0 |
6.3 |
Average |
81.6 |
78.5 |
78.0 |
76.5 |
83.6 |
83.9 |
83.1 |
83.1 |
Above average |
11.7 |
14.5 |
15.0 |
16.1 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
9.9 |
10.6 |
Net Response |
-4.9 |
-7.4 |
-8.0 |
-8.7 |
-2.1 |
-4.0 |
-3.0 |
-4.3 |
Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic |
Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
19.8 |
6.9 |
73.3 |
12.9 |
19.3 |
5.7 |
75.0 |
13.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
19.8 |
9.7 |
70.5 |
10.0 |
19.9 |
5.2 |
74.9 |
14.6 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
17.9 |
9.6 |
72.5 |
8.3 |
20.5 |
8.3 |
71.2 |
12.3 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
16.4 |
9.7 |
73.9 |
6.7 |
19.2 |
5.9 |
74.9 |
13.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
15.3 |
9.8 |
74.9 |
5.5 |
17.2 |
6.9 |
75.8 |
10.3 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
16.0 |
8.0 |
76.1 |
8.0 |
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic |
Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
30.4 |
11.9 |
57.8 |
18.5 |
35.3 |
10.2 |
54.5 |
25.2 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
27.8 |
13.5 |
58.7 |
14.2 |
35.7 |
8.1 |
56.2 |
27.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
27.1 |
14.9 |
58.0 |
12.2 |
33.2 |
9.5 |
57.3 |
23.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
26.4 |
13.7 |
59.9 |
12.7 |
34.8 |
9.0 |
56.2 |
25.8 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
26.9 |
15.1 |
58.0 |
11.8 |
34.9 |
7.9 |
57.2 |
27.0 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
31.5 |
9.6 |
58.9 |
21.9 |
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic |
Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
40.0 |
5.1 |
54.8 |
34.9 |
38.0 |
4.2 |
57.8 |
33.8 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
36.6 |
6.1 |
57.3 |
30.4 |
36.2 |
4.3 |
59.6 |
31.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
37.5 |
6.8 |
55.8 |
30.7 |
34.9 |
4.8 |
60.3 |
30.1 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
35.0 |
5.7 |
59.4 |
29.3 |
37.3 |
4.4 |
58.3 |
32.9 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
35.2 |
6.3 |
58.5 |
29.0 |
35.8 |
3.8 |
60.5 |
32.0 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
33.0 |
6.5 |
60.4 |
26.5 |
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic |
Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
26.1 |
10.3 |
63.5 |
15.8 |
28.2 |
9.1 |
62.7 |
19.0 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
26.2 |
11.1 |
62.7 |
15.0 |
29.9 |
7.0 |
63.1 |
22.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
25.0 |
11.2 |
63.8 |
13.8 |
28.0 |
7.7 |
64.3 |
20.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
21.2 |
11.2 |
67.6 |
10.0 |
29.1 |
7.8 |
63.1 |
21.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
26.7 |
7.2 |
66.0 |
19.5 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic |
Table 11(a): Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance |
(Percentage responses) |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Q4:2012-13 |
Q1:2013-14 |
Availability of Finance (from internal accruals)* |
Improve |
23.3 |
25.6 |
| |
No Change |
65.6 |
67.4 |
| |
Worsen |
11.1 |
7.0 |
| |
Net Response |
12.1 |
18.7 |
Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources)* |
Improve |
18.3 |
18.7 |
| |
No Change |
76.8 |
77.9 |
| |
Worsen |
4.9 |
3.4 |
| |
Net Response |
13.4 |
15.3 |
Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable)* |
Improve |
9.6 |
11.0 |
| |
No Change |
84.2 |
84.4 |
| |
Worsen |
6.2 |
4.6 |
| |
Net Response |
3.4 |
6.3 |
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
*These questions are newly added by splitting the question on Availability of Finance (both internal and external sources) in the 61st Round (Jan-March 2013) |
Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
3.8 |
41.1 |
55.1 |
-37.4 |
4.1 |
42.8 |
53.1 |
-38.8 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
7.3 |
37.8 |
54.9 |
-30.5 |
9.9 |
32.6 |
57.6 |
-22.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
5.8 |
33.1 |
61.1 |
-27.4 |
8.6 |
32.6 |
58.9 |
-24.0 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
5.8 |
30.3 |
63.9 |
-24.4 |
7.6 |
28.1 |
64.3 |
-20.6 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
9.5 |
27.0 |
63.5 |
-17.6 |
7.5 |
25.5 |
67.0 |
-18.1 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
9.7 |
24.0 |
66.3 |
-14.3 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of external finance is optimistic |
Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
3.4 |
62.7 |
33.9 |
-59.4 |
4.0 |
54.1 |
41.9 |
-50.1 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
3.1 |
66.2 |
30.7 |
-63.1 |
2.2 |
51.2 |
46.5 |
-49.0 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
3.0 |
62.6 |
34.4 |
-59.6 |
3.5 |
54.9 |
41.6 |
-51.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
5.4 |
56.2 |
38.4 |
-50.7 |
3.5 |
52.1 |
44.3 |
-48.6 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
4.3 |
57.8 |
37.9 |
-53.5 |
3.3 |
48.3 |
48.3 |
-45.0 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
3.6 |
49.2 |
47.1 |
-45.6 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic |
Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
25.1 |
11.6 |
63.3 |
13.5 |
25.0 |
10.3 |
64.7 |
14.7 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
28.0 |
10.5 |
61.4 |
17.5 |
26.3 |
7.3 |
66.4 |
19.0 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
29.3 |
10.9 |
59.8 |
18.5 |
27.8 |
9.0 |
63.2 |
18.8 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
22.5 |
12.3 |
65.1 |
10.2 |
25.6 |
8.3 |
66.1 |
17.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
22.3 |
13.2 |
64.5 |
9.1 |
22.8 |
7.0 |
70.2 |
15.8 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
23.1 |
8.1 |
68.8 |
14.9 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic |
Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
17.5 |
28.7 |
53.8 |
-11.3 |
20.1 |
23.1 |
56.8 |
-2.9 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
15.4 |
33.3 |
51.3 |
-17.9 |
20.4 |
21.6 |
58.0 |
-1.2 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
16.2 |
31.2 |
52.6 |
-15.1 |
20.1 |
23.6 |
56.3 |
-3.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
14.5 |
31.2 |
54.2 |
-16.7 |
20.5 |
21.8 |
57.7 |
-1.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
16.2 |
31.5 |
52.3 |
-15.3 |
18.8 |
20.8 |
60.4 |
-2.0 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
17.7 |
22.7 |
59.6 |
-4.9 |
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic |
Table 16: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
| |
|
(Percentage responses) |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
37.8 |
11.3 |
50.9 |
26.5 |
43.6 |
10.0 |
46.5 |
33.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
32.9 |
14.6 |
52.5 |
18.3 |
43.0 |
8.1 |
49.0 |
34.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
32.8 |
16.7 |
50.5 |
16.1 |
40.2 |
9.7 |
50.1 |
30.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
32.3 |
15.0 |
52.7 |
17.2 |
41.4 |
9.2 |
49.4 |
32.2 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
1301 |
32.8 |
14.4 |
52.8 |
18.4 |
44.8 |
7.2 |
48.0 |
37.5 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
39.3 |
9.7 |
51.1 |
29.6 |
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic |
Table 17: Business Expectation Index (BEI) |
Quarter |
BEI-Assessment Quarter |
BEI-Expectation Quarter |
Q4: 2011-12 |
114.9 |
117.2 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
107.4 |
116.8 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
103.8 |
114.0 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
104.5 |
115.7 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
105.6 |
115.6 |
Q1:2013-14 |
|
111.6 |
Note: @Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable for all the tables from 1 to 16. |
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