Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1 for the November 2021 round. With the gradual withdrawal of COVID-19 related restrictions in most states, the survey was conducted through physical interviews, during October 25 to November 3, 2021 in 13 major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. The survey obtained current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending from 5,310 households across these cities2. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence continued to improve from the historic low recorded in July 2021 though the assessment for the current period remained in pessimistic terrain; the current situation index (CSI)3 increased to 62.3 in November 2021 from 57.7 in the previous survey round (Chart 1). II. The perception for general economic situation, employment scenario and household income displayed signs of recovery (Tables 1, 2 and 5). III. Households were more confident for the year ahead, which was reflected in the continued upward trajectory of the future expectations index (FEI), buoyed by higher optimism for household income and employment scenario (Chart 1; Tables 2 and 5). IV. With higher expenditure on essential items, households perceived a rise in overall expenditure; sentiments on non-essential expenditure, however, continue to be pessimistic and did not reflect improvement over the coming year (Tables 6, 7 and 8). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 77.5 | -66.5 | 50.9 | 13.9 | 35.2 | 15.7 | | Jan-21 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 72.2 | -57.9 | 52.6 | 16.1 | 31.3 | 21.3 | | Mar-21 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 76.0 | -63.9 | 44.0 | 17.3 | 38.7 | 5.3 | | May-21 | 6.5 | 12.1 | 81.4 | -75.0 | 33.2 | 15.3 | 51.5 | -18.3 | | Jul-21 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 78.5 | -69.1 | 39.7 | 15.8 | 44.5 | -4.8 | | Sep-21 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 72.3 | -57.4 | 41.6 | 18.3 | 40.1 | 1.5 | | Nov-21 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 70.8 | -54.2 | 43.9 | 17.4 | 38.7 | 5.2 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 79.5 | -68.5 | 52.0 | 14.9 | 33.1 | 18.9 | | Jan-21 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 75.4 | -62.3 | 55.3 | 16.1 | 28.6 | 26.7 | | Mar-21 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 75.3 | -62.4 | 46.7 | 17.3 | 36.0 | 10.7 | | May-21 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 82.1 | -74.9 | 35.4 | 16.1 | 48.5 | -13.0 | | Jul-21 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 78.4 | -68.2 | 42.2 | 16.5 | 41.3 | 0.9 | | Sep-21 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 72.4 | -57.6 | 45.0 | 17.8 | 37.1 | 7.9 | | Nov-21 | 18.8 | 16.0 | 65.2 | -46.4 | 48.6 | 18.1 | 33.3 | 15.4 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 89.7 | 9.0 | 1.4 | -88.3 | 70.5 | 17.4 | 12.1 | -58.4 | | Jan-21 | 88.6 | 9.6 | 1.7 | -86.9 | 73.2 | 17.1 | 9.7 | -63.5 | | Mar-21 | 93.8 | 5.0 | 1.2 | -92.6 | 75.0 | 14.4 | 10.6 | -64.4 | | May-21 | 90.6 | 7.8 | 1.6 | -89.0 | 73.9 | 16.4 | 9.7 | -64.3 | | Jul-21 | 93.1 | 5.6 | 1.3 | -91.9 | 71.3 | 16.9 | 11.8 | -59.5 | | Sep-21 | 92.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | -90.6 | 74.7 | 15.0 | 10.3 | -64.4 | | Nov-21 | 95.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | -94.5 | 76.5 | 12.9 | 10.6 | -66.0 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 88.3 | 8.9 | 2.8 | -85.5 | 78.3 | 16.7 | 4.9 | -73.4 | | Jan-21 | 83.5 | 13.4 | 3.1 | -80.4 | 77.7 | 17.2 | 5.0 | -72.7 | | Mar-21 | 88.8 | 8.5 | 2.7 | -86.1 | 81.1 | 14.3 | 4.5 | -76.6 | | May-21 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.5 | -84.7 | 79.3 | 16.7 | 4.0 | -75.3 | | Jul-21 | 87.9 | 10.4 | 1.7 | -86.3 | 79.7 | 16.3 | 4.0 | -75.8 | | Sep-21 | 88.4 | 9.0 | 2.6 | -85.8 | 81.9 | 13.8 | 4.4 | -77.5 | | Nov-21 | 91.3 | 6.7 | 2.0 | -89.3 | 81.7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | -77.5 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 8.4 | 28.5 | 63.1 | -54.7 | 51.0 | 38.3 | 10.7 | 40.3 | | Jan-21 | 9.9 | 29.2 | 60.9 | -51.0 | 51.3 | 38.8 | 9.9 | 41.4 | | Mar-21 | 7.9 | 30.5 | 61.6 | -53.7 | 46.4 | 40.7 | 13.0 | 33.4 | | May-21 | 8.4 | 33.1 | 58.5 | -50.1 | 42.5 | 42.1 | 15.5 | 27.0 | | Jul-21 | 6.8 | 27.4 | 65.9 | -59.1 | 44.5 | 41.6 | 13.9 | 30.6 | | Sep-21 | 10.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | -47.8 | 44.2 | 42.9 | 12.9 | 31.3 | | Nov-21 | 11.7 | 36.1 | 52.2 | -40.6 | 46.7 | 42.0 | 11.3 | 35.4 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 55.6 | 28.5 | 15.9 | 39.7 | 69.1 | 24.9 | 6.1 | 63.0 | | Jan-21 | 53.3 | 28.9 | 17.8 | 35.5 | 66.4 | 26.7 | 6.8 | 59.6 | | Mar-21 | 56.6 | 24.9 | 18.4 | 38.2 | 67.0 | 25.3 | 7.7 | 59.3 | | May-21 | 50.6 | 30.3 | 19.2 | 31.4 | 60.5 | 29.9 | 9.6 | 50.9 | | Jul-21 | 51.9 | 27.7 | 20.5 | 31.4 | 62.1 | 28.7 | 9.3 | 52.8 | | Sep-21 | 58.1 | 25.7 | 16.2 | 41.9 | 65.7 | 27.5 | 6.9 | 58.8 | | Nov-21 | 62.5 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 47.1 | 66.0 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 58.2 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 68.7 | 20.0 | 11.3 | 57.4 | 75.6 | 19.2 | 5.2 | 70.4 | | Jan-21 | 68.6 | 20.0 | 11.4 | 57.2 | 73.6 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 68.8 | | Mar-21 | 71.1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 58.2 | 74.6 | 20.0 | 5.4 | 69.2 | | May-21 | 63.2 | 22.3 | 14.5 | 48.7 | 68.1 | 24.6 | 7.3 | 60.8 | | Jul-21 | 66.2 | 19.0 | 14.8 | 51.4 | 71.0 | 22.1 | 7.0 | 64.0 | | Sep-21 | 72.2 | 16.7 | 11.0 | 61.2 | 73.4 | 21.3 | 5.4 | 68.1 | | Nov-21 | 75.8 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 66.1 | 74.3 | 20.2 | 5.5 | 68.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Nov-20 | 11.2 | 27.9 | 60.9 | -49.7 | 28.7 | 37.3 | 34.0 | -5.3 | | Jan-21 | 13.3 | 27.1 | 59.7 | -46.4 | 27.5 | 36.7 | 35.8 | -8.3 | | Mar-21 | 11.9 | 29.5 | 58.5 | -46.6 | 24.7 | 38.3 | 37.1 | -12.4 | | May-21 | 8.7 | 31.5 | 59.7 | -51.0 | 22.2 | 40.7 | 37.1 | -14.9 | | Jul-21 | 8.4 | 27.2 | 64.4 | -56.0 | 21.5 | 37.9 | 40.6 | -19.2 | | Sep-21 | 9.2 | 29.7 | 61.0 | -51.8 | 23.4 | 38.7 | 37.9 | -14.5 | | Nov-21 | 12.1 | 27.7 | 60.3 | -48.2 | 23.4 | 37.1 | 39.5 | -16.1 |
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