आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने जनवरी 2025 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 2-11 जनवरी, 2025 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था, जिसमें 6,096 वैध प्रतिक्रियाएँ मिलीं, और महिला भागीदारी 55.4 प्रतिशत रही।
| Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
| (Percentage of Respondents) |
| Survey period ended |
Jan-24 |
Jul-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
Jan-25 |
| General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
| Prices will increase |
78.2 |
0.84 |
82.3 |
0.77 |
79.7 |
0.89 |
79.3 |
0.89 |
81.6 |
0.79 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
54.4 |
1.09 |
60.5 |
1.13 |
55.5 |
1.21 |
53.6 |
1.24 |
57.9 |
1.11 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
19.5 |
0.80 |
17.3 |
0.86 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
19.9 |
0.87 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.43 |
4.5 |
0.48 |
5.0 |
0.55 |
5.8 |
0.49 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
| No changes in prices |
18.3 |
0.79 |
14.6 |
0.71 |
17.9 |
0.85 |
18.7 |
0.87 |
16.5 |
0.76 |
| Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.1 |
0.37 |
2.5 |
0.32 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
| Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
80.2 |
0.77 |
84.2 |
0.70 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
83.2 |
0.77 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
59.3 |
1.00 |
62.1 |
1.03 |
60.7 |
1.07 |
60.7 |
1.08 |
59.3 |
1.03 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
15.6 |
0.72 |
16.0 |
0.75 |
16.7 |
0.77 |
17.0 |
0.81 |
17.3 |
0.78 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
5.4 |
0.45 |
6.1 |
0.52 |
6.6 |
0.58 |
6.2 |
0.50 |
6.7 |
0.53 |
| No changes in prices |
12.3 |
0.65 |
10.2 |
0.57 |
11.2 |
0.67 |
11.1 |
0.64 |
11.5 |
0.66 |
| Decline in prices |
7.5 |
0.51 |
5.6 |
0.47 |
4.9 |
0.42 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.3 |
0.45 |
| Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
74.0 |
0.85 |
77.0 |
0.81 |
76.1 |
0.92 |
75.9 |
0.90 |
75.2 |
0.86 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
52.3 |
1.03 |
54.5 |
1.10 |
52.4 |
1.11 |
51.7 |
1.14 |
52.5 |
1.04 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
16.4 |
0.71 |
16.2 |
0.79 |
17.7 |
0.78 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
16.8 |
0.74 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.45 |
6.2 |
0.52 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
6.3 |
0.50 |
6.0 |
0.47 |
| No changes in prices |
18.6 |
0.76 |
17.6 |
0.74 |
19.1 |
0.85 |
19.9 |
0.85 |
20.4 |
0.79 |
| Decline in prices |
7.4 |
0.52 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
4.7 |
0.42 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
4.4 |
0.40 |
| Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
65.5 |
0.93 |
68.2 |
0.97 |
64.9 |
1.03 |
66.5 |
1.00 |
67.0 |
0.99 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
46.3 |
1.04 |
49.6 |
1.09 |
45.9 |
1.11 |
46.3 |
1.11 |
46.9 |
1.09 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
14.5 |
0.65 |
13.9 |
0.73 |
14.2 |
0.71 |
14.5 |
0.70 |
14.7 |
0.71 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.7 |
0.42 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.48 |
5.7 |
0.50 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
| No changes in prices |
25.2 |
0.85 |
23.4 |
0.88 |
25.2 |
0.97 |
24.8 |
0.89 |
25.3 |
0.92 |
| Decline in prices |
9.4 |
0.57 |
8.4 |
0.58 |
9.8 |
0.55 |
8.7 |
0.55 |
7.8 |
0.50 |
| Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
78.4 |
0.83 |
78.6 |
0.84 |
77.7 |
0.88 |
78.9 |
0.85 |
78.5 |
0.91 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
58.2 |
1.05 |
59.6 |
1.07 |
56.9 |
1.11 |
57.4 |
1.14 |
58.0 |
1.10 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
16.1 |
0.72 |
14.8 |
0.78 |
16.3 |
0.75 |
16.4 |
0.76 |
15.6 |
0.75 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.0 |
0.41 |
4.1 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.48 |
5.1 |
0.46 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
| No changes in prices |
18.1 |
0.79 |
18.2 |
0.78 |
19.1 |
0.87 |
18.2 |
0.79 |
18.3 |
0.87 |
| Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.34 |
3.2 |
0.37 |
3.3 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
| Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
65.0 |
0.93 |
71.0 |
0.95 |
66.9 |
1.04 |
66.3 |
0.99 |
68.4 |
0.99 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
46.1 |
1.02 |
52.7 |
1.12 |
46.9 |
1.15 |
46.6 |
1.12 |
48.2 |
1.10 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
15.0 |
0.69 |
13.6 |
0.70 |
15.5 |
0.73 |
14.8 |
0.70 |
14.9 |
0.74 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
3.8 |
0.37 |
4.6 |
0.46 |
4.5 |
0.46 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
| No changes in prices |
30.5 |
0.91 |
25.3 |
0.90 |
29.8 |
1.01 |
30.7 |
0.98 |
28.4 |
0.96 |
| Decline in prices |
4.5 |
0.41 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
3.2 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
3.1 |
0.36 |
| Note: |
| 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
| 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
| Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
| (Percentage of Respondents) |
| Survey period ended |
Jan-24 |
Jul-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
Jan-25 |
| General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
| Prices will increase |
88.7 |
0.63 |
90.6 |
0.60 |
89.4 |
0.73 |
89.6 |
0.67 |
90.6 |
0.62 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
66.3 |
1.06 |
68.6 |
1.12 |
66.5 |
1.20 |
66.9 |
1.14 |
68.7 |
1.06 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
19.1 |
0.83 |
18.3 |
0.86 |
18.6 |
0.91 |
18.6 |
0.85 |
18.1 |
0.87 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
3.3 |
0.36 |
3.7 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.50 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
3.8 |
0.43 |
| No changes in prices |
8.2 |
0.55 |
6.6 |
0.50 |
8.6 |
0.67 |
8.2 |
0.62 |
7.4 |
0.55 |
| Decline in prices |
3.0 |
0.36 |
2.9 |
0.35 |
2.0 |
0.28 |
2.2 |
0.30 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
| Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
86.4 |
0.68 |
87.1 |
0.65 |
86.6 |
0.78 |
89.0 |
0.66 |
88.8 |
0.65 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
63.6 |
1.03 |
63.5 |
1.09 |
61.8 |
1.20 |
64.4 |
1.13 |
63.5 |
1.10 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
18.2 |
0.77 |
19.0 |
0.84 |
19.2 |
0.85 |
19.3 |
0.87 |
19.7 |
0.89 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.6 |
0.48 |
5.6 |
0.55 |
5.3 |
0.48 |
5.6 |
0.51 |
| No changes in prices |
8.7 |
0.53 |
7.9 |
0.52 |
9.7 |
0.66 |
7.3 |
0.53 |
7.7 |
0.55 |
| Decline in prices |
4.9 |
0.43 |
5.0 |
0.43 |
3.8 |
0.38 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
3.5 |
0.36 |
| Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
82.0 |
0.80 |
82.9 |
0.77 |
82.4 |
0.85 |
81.9 |
0.81 |
83.3 |
0.78 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
59.1 |
1.11 |
61.2 |
1.12 |
58.3 |
1.20 |
56.7 |
1.19 |
59.4 |
1.16 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
18.6 |
0.79 |
16.9 |
0.80 |
18.5 |
0.83 |
19.5 |
0.84 |
18.6 |
0.84 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.4 |
0.41 |
4.8 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.57 |
5.6 |
0.48 |
5.2 |
0.46 |
| No changes in prices |
13.1 |
0.66 |
12.4 |
0.64 |
14.0 |
0.77 |
14.7 |
0.76 |
13.2 |
0.69 |
| Decline in prices |
4.8 |
0.45 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.4 |
0.36 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
| Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
74.8 |
0.84 |
77.4 |
0.83 |
76.2 |
0.93 |
76.8 |
0.90 |
76.3 |
0.90 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
54.0 |
1.06 |
56.6 |
1.12 |
54.5 |
1.16 |
54.8 |
1.18 |
54.3 |
1.13 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
16.7 |
0.69 |
16.1 |
0.76 |
16.5 |
0.79 |
16.9 |
0.76 |
17.0 |
0.80 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.1 |
0.41 |
4.8 |
0.49 |
5.1 |
0.50 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
5.0 |
0.47 |
| No changes in prices |
18.3 |
0.75 |
16.3 |
0.73 |
17.3 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.81 |
18.0 |
0.82 |
| Decline in prices |
6.9 |
0.49 |
6.3 |
0.48 |
6.5 |
0.49 |
5.6 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.43 |
| Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
88.0 |
0.65 |
88.2 |
0.66 |
87.7 |
0.74 |
88.8 |
0.70 |
88.7 |
0.66 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
67.7 |
0.96 |
66.6 |
1.05 |
65.9 |
1.07 |
66.7 |
1.09 |
67.6 |
1.05 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
16.7 |
0.74 |
17.7 |
0.80 |
17.0 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.83 |
17.0 |
0.80 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
3.6 |
0.40 |
3.9 |
0.43 |
4.8 |
0.53 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.1 |
0.45 |
| No changes in prices |
9.1 |
0.55 |
8.6 |
0.55 |
8.9 |
0.60 |
8.7 |
0.61 |
8.8 |
0.59 |
| Decline in prices |
2.9 |
0.34 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
3.4 |
0.40 |
2.5 |
0.30 |
2.5 |
0.31 |
| Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Prices will increase |
79.5 |
0.78 |
83.4 |
0.76 |
82.2 |
0.85 |
81.7 |
0.90 |
81.9 |
0.85 |
| Price increase more than current rate |
58.8 |
1.03 |
61.6 |
1.17 |
58.8 |
1.18 |
58.4 |
1.19 |
58.8 |
1.15 |
| Price increase similar to current rate |
16.6 |
0.72 |
17.4 |
0.82 |
17.9 |
0.80 |
18.3 |
0.82 |
18.2 |
0.82 |
| Price increase less than current rate |
4.1 |
0.40 |
4.4 |
0.45 |
5.5 |
0.57 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
5.0 |
0.47 |
| No changes in prices |
17.0 |
0.72 |
13.2 |
0.67 |
15.3 |
0.80 |
15.7 |
0.84 |
15.5 |
0.79 |
| Decline in prices |
3.5 |
0.37 |
3.4 |
0.39 |
2.4 |
0.30 |
2.6 |
0.32 |
2.6 |
0.33 |
| Note: |
| 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
| 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |