|
The Industrial Outlook Survey conducted in Q3:2012-13, the 60th round in the series, gives assessment of business situation of companies in the manufacturing sector for Q3:2012-13 and their expectations for the ensuing quarter Q4:2012-13. The survey elicited response from 1,388 (response rate about 70 per cent) manufacturing companies.
Highlights:
-
The assessment of major demand side parameters, viz: production, capacity utilisation, exports and imports for Q3:2012-13, measured by net responses of the companies, remained positive but marginally lower as compared to those in the previous quarter.
-
On the other hand, the outlook of demand conditions for Q4:2012-13 improved, with the exception of imports.
-
Net response for order books improved marginally in Q3:2012-13 from a quarter ago, but remained lower as compared to the corresponding quarter of previous year.
-
Majority of the respondents reported no change in the level of raw material and finished goods inventories in both the assessment and expectation quarters.
-
The level of optimism on overall financial situation remained broadly the same as compared with the previous quarter.
-
Net response on availability of finance moderated for both the quarters.
-
Both cost of external finance and cost of raw materials were perceived to rise, but by a lower proportion of respondents as compared to a quarter and a year ago.
-
The assessment and expectation on profit margin remained more or less balanced for Q3:2012-13 and Q4:2012-13, respectively.
-
The Business Expectation Index (BEI), a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter, increased marginally to 104.5 for Q3:2012-13 from 103.8 in the previous quarter.
-
The index, however, remained broadly at the same level for Q4:2012-13 (115.6 from 115.7).
- The BEI for both the assessment quarter and the expectation quarter have persisted in the growth terrain, i.e. above 100, which is the threshold separating contraction from expansion.
Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
49.0 |
12.5 |
38.5 |
36.5 |
48.8 |
8.8 |
42.3 |
40.0 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
48.4 |
13.0 |
38.6 |
35.4 |
45.8 |
9.9 |
44.3 |
35.9 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
51.6 |
11.6 |
36.8 |
40.0 |
49.7 |
9.4 |
40.9 |
40.2 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
53.9 |
10.0 |
36.0 |
43.9 |
55.9 |
6.8 |
37.3 |
49.1 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
52.1 |
10.7 |
37.1 |
41.4 |
55.4 |
6.8 |
37.7 |
48.6 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
47.8 |
15.7 |
36.5 |
32.1 |
49.1 |
9.1 |
41.8 |
40.0 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
40.8 |
18.3 |
40.9 |
22.6 |
49.6 |
9.0 |
41.5 |
40.6 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
42.2 |
16.9 |
41.0 |
25.3 |
49.5 |
9.5 |
41.0 |
39.9 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
45.6 |
12.5 |
41.9 |
33.1 |
49.8 |
9.5 |
40.7 |
40.4 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
38.8 |
18.5 |
42.7 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
10.6 |
44.0 |
34.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
37.9 |
19.2 |
42.9 |
18.8 |
45.4 |
11.7 |
42.9 |
33.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
37.5 |
18.8 |
43.7 |
18.6 |
46.1 |
10.4 |
43.4 |
35.7 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
46.3 |
9.2 |
44.4 |
37.1 |
#Due to rounding off, percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable for all the tables.
‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. |
Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order books |
(Percentage responses)# |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
43.5 |
11.6 |
44.9 |
31.9 |
44.8 |
9.1 |
46.1 |
35.8 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
41.8 |
10.5 |
47.7 |
31.3 |
42.3 |
8.9 |
48.8 |
33.4 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
45.4 |
9.3 |
45.3 |
36.1 |
44.4 |
8.1 |
47.5 |
36.3 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
46.9 |
9.1 |
44.0 |
37.9 |
49.8 |
5.1 |
45.1 |
44.8 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
44.8 |
10.1 |
45.2 |
34.7 |
49.6 |
5.6 |
44.8 |
44.0 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
42.5 |
14.4 |
43.0 |
28.1 |
45.9 |
7.5 |
46.6 |
38.4 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
37.9 |
17.6 |
44.5 |
20.3 |
45.4 |
9.4 |
45.2 |
35.9 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
36.9 |
18.5 |
44.6 |
18.4 |
43.5 |
10.1 |
46.4 |
33.4 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
38.9 |
14.1 |
47.0 |
24.8 |
42.3 |
11.0 |
46.7 |
31.3 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
34.2 |
17.3 |
48.5 |
16.9 |
39.3 |
9.8 |
50.9 |
29.5 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
31.9 |
19.8 |
48.3 |
12.0 |
41.0 |
11.1 |
47.9 |
29.9 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
32.0 |
19.2 |
48.8 |
12.9 |
41.2 |
10.9 |
48.0 |
30.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
40.0 |
10.2 |
49.8 |
29.8 |
| ‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Below Normal |
Above Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
15.5 |
6.7 |
77.8 |
8.8 |
12.2 |
6.5 |
81.3 |
5.7 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
14.3 |
7.4 |
78.3 |
6.9 |
12.9 |
6.4 |
80.7 |
6.5 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
12.0 |
6.9 |
81.1 |
5.1 |
11.4 |
7.3 |
81.3 |
4.2 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
11.6 |
7.6 |
80.8 |
3.9 |
8.8 |
7.3 |
83.9 |
1.5 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
12.5 |
6.9 |
80.6 |
5.5 |
9.8 |
8.1 |
82.1 |
1.7 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
13.3 |
6.7 |
80.0 |
6.5 |
10.4 |
6.6 |
83.0 |
3.9 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
18.0 |
4.7 |
77.3 |
13.3 |
11.8 |
7.2 |
81.0 |
4.5 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
17.5 |
5.0 |
77.5 |
12.6 |
13.6 |
6.0 |
80.4 |
7.6 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
15.9 |
5.4 |
78.7 |
10.5 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
79.8 |
7.3 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
17.0 |
5.7 |
77.3 |
11.3 |
13.3 |
4.6 |
82.1 |
8.8 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
18.7 |
5.6 |
75.7 |
13.1 |
14.6 |
6.2 |
79.2 |
8.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
18.8 |
4.4 |
76.8 |
14.3 |
14.4 |
7.0 |
78.6 |
7.4 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
14.6 |
4.5 |
80.9 |
10.1 |
| Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Capacity Utilisation (main product) |
Increase |
24.0 |
23.3 |
30.4 |
31.1 |
No Change |
58.3 |
59.0 |
59.3 |
59.6 |
Decrease |
17.7 |
17.6 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
Net Response |
6.3 |
5.7 |
20.0 |
21.7 |
Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) |
Above normal |
9.7 |
9.1 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
Normal |
71.3 |
70.9 |
77.4 |
76.6 |
Below Normal |
18.9 |
20.0 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
Net Response |
-9.2 |
-10.8 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) |
More than adequate |
13.1 |
14.2 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
Adequate |
79.0 |
77.5 |
80.5 |
79.6 |
Less than adequate |
7.9 |
8.3 |
6.4 |
7.4 |
Net Response |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
| ‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Exports |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
28.9 |
16.2 |
54.9 |
12.7 |
31.2 |
11.0 |
57.8 |
20.2 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
29.1 |
13.7 |
57.2 |
15.3 |
30.0 |
11.5 |
58.5 |
18.5 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
31.8 |
11.8 |
56.5 |
20.0 |
30.8 |
10.1 |
59.1 |
20.7 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
34.4 |
11.4 |
54.2 |
23.1 |
34.4 |
8.3 |
57.3 |
26.1 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
32.1 |
13.2 |
54.7 |
18.9 |
34.4 |
8.1 |
57.5 |
26.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
31.8 |
13.6 |
54.6 |
18.2 |
33.4 |
9.4 |
57.1 |
24.0 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
28.7 |
15.7 |
56.6 |
13.1 |
35.1 |
9.2 |
55.7 |
25.8 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
26.8 |
15.3 |
57.9 |
11.5 |
32.7 |
10.6 |
56.8 |
22.1 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
27.8 |
13.6 |
58.6 |
14.2 |
29.0 |
10.4 |
60.6 |
18.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
25.7 |
14.9 |
59.4 |
10.8 |
30.1 |
9.4 |
60.5 |
20.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
25.3 |
15.2 |
59.5 |
10.0 |
31.0 |
10.5 |
58.5 |
20.5 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
24.3 |
15.0 |
60.6 |
9.3 |
29.0 |
10.9 |
60.1 |
18.0 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
28.5 |
10.1 |
61.4 |
18.4 |
| ‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. |
Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Import |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
25.5 |
8.4 |
66.1 |
17.1 |
23.4 |
6.5 |
70.1 |
16.9 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
27.7 |
6.8 |
65.6 |
20.9 |
22.9 |
5.9 |
71.2 |
17.1 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
28.6 |
6.6 |
64.7 |
22.0 |
27.0 |
5.4 |
67.6 |
21.7 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
27.3 |
6.4 |
66.3 |
20.9 |
27.3 |
5.1 |
67.6 |
22.2 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
27.0 |
7.1 |
65.8 |
19.9 |
26.7 |
5.4 |
67.9 |
21.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
25.0 |
7.4 |
67.6 |
17.6 |
25.1 |
6.2 |
68.6 |
18.9 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
23.3 |
7.6 |
69.2 |
15.7 |
25.1 |
6.1 |
68.9 |
19.0 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
20.8 |
9.3 |
69.9 |
11.6 |
23.1 |
6.2 |
70.7 |
16.9 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
22.5 |
8.0 |
69.5 |
14.4 |
23.0 |
7.5 |
69.4 |
15.5 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
21.8 |
10.1 |
68.1 |
11.6 |
22.4 |
6.7 |
70.8 |
15.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.5 |
9.8 |
22.9 |
7.4 |
69.7 |
15.5 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
19.0 |
10.2 |
70.7 |
8.8 |
22.1 |
8.1 |
69.8 |
14.0 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
20.9 |
7.4 |
71.7 |
13.5 |
| ‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. |
Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods) |
(Percentage responses) # |
Parameter |
Options |
Assessment for Quarter |
Expectations for Quarter |
Q2:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q3:2012-13 |
Q4:2012-13 |
Inventory of raw material |
Below average |
6.9 |
7.6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
Average |
80.9 |
79.8 |
85.2 |
83.9 |
Above average |
12.3 |
12.6 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
Net Response |
-5.4 |
-5.0 |
-4.7 |
-5.1 |
Inventory of Finished goods |
Below average |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.1 |
7.0 |
Average |
78.5 |
78.0 |
83.9 |
83.1 |
Above average |
14.5 |
15.0 |
10.0 |
9.9 |
Net Response |
-7.4 |
-8.0 |
-4.0 |
-3.0 |
| Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic. |
Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
21.0 |
7.3 |
71.7 |
13.7 |
18.2 |
6.1 |
75.6 |
12.1 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
21.7 |
7.0 |
71.3 |
14.7 |
19.5 |
5.9 |
74.7 |
13.6 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
25.1 |
6.3 |
68.6 |
18.7 |
21.8 |
5.1 |
73.1 |
16.8 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
24.8 |
5.4 |
69.9 |
19.4 |
24.7 |
3.6 |
71.7 |
21.0 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
24.3 |
5.6 |
70.1 |
18.7 |
25.0 |
4.3 |
70.7 |
20.6 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
24.3 |
6.1 |
69.6 |
18.2 |
23.0 |
5.6 |
71.4 |
17.4 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
22.7 |
7.1 |
70.2 |
15.6 |
24.0 |
4.6 |
71.5 |
19.4 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
18.9 |
7.6 |
73.5 |
11.3 |
21.7 |
5.2 |
73.1 |
16.5 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
19.8 |
6.9 |
73.3 |
12.9 |
19.3 |
5.7 |
75.0 |
13.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
19.8 |
9.7 |
70.5 |
10.0 |
19.9 |
5.2 |
74.9 |
14.6 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
17.9 |
9.6 |
72.5 |
8.3 |
20.5 |
8.3 |
71.2 |
12.3 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
16.4 |
9.7 |
73.9 |
6.7 |
19.2 |
5.9 |
74.9 |
13.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
17.2 |
6.9 |
75.8 |
10.3 |
| ‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. |
Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
42.3 |
6.5 |
51.3 |
35.8 |
44.3 |
5.0 |
50.6 |
39.3 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
39.1 |
6.9 |
54.0 |
32.2 |
41.6 |
5.3 |
53.1 |
36.3 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
38.7 |
8.1 |
53.2 |
30.6 |
39.7 |
5.6 |
54.8 |
34.1 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
42.8 |
5.7 |
51.5 |
37.1 |
44.9 |
5.3 |
49.7 |
39.6 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
35.7 |
8.6 |
55.8 |
27.1 |
45.5 |
4.4 |
50.1 |
41.1 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
34.5 |
10.4 |
55.0 |
24.1 |
38.6 |
5.2 |
56.1 |
33.4 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
27.8 |
16.0 |
56.2 |
11.7 |
37.4 |
6.8 |
55.7 |
30.6 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
28.1 |
16.9 |
55.0 |
11.2 |
35.5 |
9.2 |
55.3 |
26.3 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
30.4 |
11.9 |
57.8 |
18.5 |
35.3 |
10.2 |
54.5 |
25.2 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
27.8 |
13.5 |
58.7 |
14.2 |
35.7 |
8.1 |
56.2 |
27.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
27.1 |
14.9 |
58.0 |
12.2 |
33.2 |
9.5 |
57.3 |
23.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
26.4 |
13.7 |
59.9 |
12.7 |
34.8 |
9.0 |
56.2 |
25.8 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
34.9 |
7.9 |
57.2 |
27.0 |
| ‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. |
Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
35.8 |
5.3 |
58.9 |
30.5 |
36.8 |
4.0 |
59.2 |
32.7 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
34.7 |
4.8 |
60.5 |
29.9 |
31.9 |
4.3 |
63.8 |
27.7 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
35.6 |
6.3 |
58.1 |
29.3 |
35.2 |
4.1 |
60.7 |
31.1 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
41.3 |
4.1 |
54.6 |
37.1 |
38.4 |
3.6 |
58.0 |
34.8 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
41.0 |
4.1 |
54.9 |
36.9 |
40.7 |
3.0 |
56.3 |
37.8 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
41.1 |
5.4 |
53.5 |
35.7 |
37.4 |
4.4 |
58.2 |
32.9 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
36.8 |
5.7 |
57.4 |
31.1 |
38.7 |
5.1 |
56.3 |
33.6 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
38.9 |
5.7 |
55.4 |
33.3 |
38.4 |
4.2 |
57.5 |
34.2 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
40.0 |
5.1 |
54.8 |
34.9 |
38.0 |
4.2 |
57.8 |
33.8 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
36.6 |
6.1 |
57.3 |
30.4 |
36.2 |
4.3 |
59.6 |
31.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
37.5 |
6.8 |
55.8 |
30.7 |
34.9 |
4.8 |
60.3 |
30.1 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
35.0 |
5.7 |
59.4 |
29.3 |
37.3 |
4.4 |
58.3 |
32.9 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
35.8 |
3.8 |
60.5 |
32.0 |
| ‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. |
Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
32.1 |
6.4 |
61.5 |
25.7 |
33.7 |
4.5 |
61.8 |
29.2 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
32.3 |
5.9 |
61.8 |
26.4 |
31.2 |
4.4 |
64.4 |
26.8 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
32.6 |
6.0 |
61.4 |
26.6 |
32.9 |
4.4 |
62.7 |
28.5 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
35.9 |
5.6 |
58.4 |
30.3 |
35.3 |
4.0 |
60.6 |
31.3 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
32.1 |
8.3 |
59.6 |
23.8 |
36.4 |
4.0 |
59.6 |
32.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
30.2 |
8.7 |
61.1 |
21.5 |
32.6 |
5.3 |
62.2 |
27.3 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
24.0 |
12.0 |
64.0 |
12.1 |
30.0 |
5.8 |
64.2 |
24.2 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
24.1 |
13.7 |
62.2 |
10.4 |
28.7 |
8.5 |
62.7 |
20.2 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
26.1 |
10.3 |
63.5 |
15.8 |
28.2 |
9.1 |
62.7 |
19.0 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
26.2 |
11.1 |
62.7 |
15.0 |
29.9 |
7.0 |
63.1 |
22.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
25.0 |
11.2 |
63.8 |
13.8 |
28.0 |
7.7 |
64.3 |
20.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
21.2 |
11.2 |
67.6 |
10.0 |
29.1 |
7.8 |
63.1 |
21.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
26.7 |
7.2 |
66.0 |
19.5 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of External Finance |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
7.7 |
23.6 |
68.7 |
-15.9 |
6.8 |
25.1 |
68.1 |
-18.3 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
7.0 |
28.9 |
64.0 |
-21.9 |
6.1 |
26.8 |
67.1 |
-20.6 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
5.0 |
33.2 |
61.8 |
-28.3 |
5.7 |
29.0 |
65.3 |
-23.3 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
4.0 |
37.9 |
58.1 |
-33.9 |
3.8 |
32.1 |
64.2 |
-28.3 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
3.5 |
46.0 |
50.6 |
-42.5 |
3.7 |
35.0 |
61.3 |
-31.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
3.5 |
52.5 |
44.1 |
-49.0 |
3.9 |
38.9 |
57.1 |
-35.0 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
3.5 |
53.7 |
42.9 |
-50.2 |
4.0 |
43.7 |
52.4 |
-39.7 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
2.9 |
53.4 |
43.7 |
-50.6 |
3.4 |
44.4 |
52.2 |
-41.0 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
3.8 |
41.1 |
55.1 |
-37.4 |
4.1 |
42.8 |
53.1 |
-38.8 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
7.3 |
37.8 |
54.9 |
-30.5 |
9.9 |
32.6 |
57.6 |
-22.7 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
5.8 |
33.1 |
61.1 |
-27.4 |
8.6 |
32.6 |
58.9 |
-24.0 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
5.8 |
30.3 |
63.9 |
-24.4 |
7.6 |
28.1 |
64.3 |
-20.6 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
7.5 |
25.5 |
67.0 |
-18.1 |
| ‘Decrease’ in cost of external finance is optimistic. |
Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Material |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Decrease |
Increase |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
2.2 |
62.3 |
35.5 |
-60.2 |
3.6 |
47.9 |
48.5 |
-44.3 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
2.5 |
65.2 |
32.3 |
-62.7 |
2.2 |
50.8 |
47.0 |
-48.6 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
3.5 |
61.8 |
34.7 |
-58.3 |
2.7 |
52.0 |
45.2 |
-49.3 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
2.4 |
66.3 |
31.3 |
-63.9 |
3.3 |
52.6 |
44.1 |
-49.3 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
1.7 |
73.7 |
24.6 |
-71.9 |
2.3 |
55.9 |
41.8 |
-53.6 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
4.5 |
70.0 |
25.6 |
-65.5 |
2.5 |
59.5 |
38.0 |
-57.0 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
5.3 |
63.3 |
31.4 |
-58.1 |
4.8 |
56.6 |
38.6 |
-51.7 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
5.1 |
66.3 |
28.7 |
-61.2 |
3.7 |
53.4 |
42.9 |
-49.7 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
3.4 |
62.7 |
33.9 |
-59.4 |
4.0 |
54.1 |
41.9 |
-50.1 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
3.1 |
66.2 |
30.7 |
-63.1 |
2.2 |
51.2 |
46.5 |
-49.0 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
3.0 |
62.6 |
34.4 |
-59.6 |
3.5 |
54.9 |
41.6 |
-51.4 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
5.4 |
56.2 |
38.4 |
-50.7 |
3.5 |
52.1 |
44.3 |
-48.6 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
3.3 |
48.3 |
48.3 |
-45.0 |
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic. |
Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
24.6 |
12.2 |
63.2 |
12.4 |
20.7 |
10.9 |
68.4 |
9.8 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
29.3 |
12.0 |
58.6 |
17.3 |
22.4 |
9.1 |
68.5 |
13.3 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
28.0 |
14.2 |
57.8 |
13.8 |
24.4 |
9.2 |
66.3 |
15.2 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
30.2 |
10.0 |
59.8 |
20.2 |
25.7 |
8.7 |
65.5 |
17.0 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
35.7 |
9.2 |
55.1 |
26.5 |
26.7 |
8.1 |
65.2 |
18.6 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
35.0 |
13.4 |
51.6 |
21.5 |
30.6 |
7.0 |
62.4 |
23.7 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
27.3 |
16.6 |
56.1 |
10.7 |
29.1 |
10.7 |
60.2 |
18.3 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
24.6 |
15.7 |
59.7 |
8.9 |
26.8 |
10.8 |
62.4 |
16.0 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
25.1 |
11.6 |
63.3 |
13.5 |
25.0 |
10.3 |
64.7 |
14.7 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
28.0 |
10.5 |
61.4 |
17.5 |
26.3 |
7.3 |
66.4 |
19.0 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
29.3 |
10.9 |
59.8 |
18.5 |
27.8 |
9.0 |
63.2 |
18.8 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
22.5 |
12.3 |
65.1 |
10.2 |
25.6 |
8.3 |
66.1 |
17.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
22.8 |
7.0 |
70.2 |
15.8 |
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. |
Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
21.7 |
24.6 |
53.9 |
-2.9 |
21.1 |
20.1 |
58.8 |
1.1 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
20.2 |
25.0 |
54.9 |
-4.8 |
22.1 |
18.9 |
59.0 |
3.2 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
21.3 |
23.9 |
54.8 |
-2.5 |
22.2 |
19.1 |
58.7 |
3.1 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
54.2 |
-0.4 |
25.2 |
16.1 |
58.7 |
9.2 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
20.8 |
25.1 |
54.1 |
-4.3 |
25.6 |
17.2 |
57.2 |
8.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
18.2 |
28.1 |
53.6 |
-9.9 |
22.2 |
18.4 |
59.4 |
3.8 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
15.2 |
32.3 |
52.5 |
-17.1 |
22.0 |
19.5 |
58.5 |
2.5 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
15.2 |
32.5 |
52.4 |
-17.3 |
20.3 |
21.9 |
57.8 |
-1.6 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
17.5 |
28.7 |
53.8 |
-11.3 |
20.1 |
23.1 |
56.8 |
-2.9 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
15.4 |
33.3 |
51.3 |
-17.9 |
20.4 |
21.6 |
58.0 |
-1.2 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
16.2 |
31.2 |
52.6 |
-15.1 |
20.1 |
23.6 |
56.3 |
-3.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
14.5 |
31.2 |
54.2 |
-16.7 |
20.5 |
21.8 |
57.7 |
-1.3 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
18.8 |
20.8 |
60.4 |
-2.0 |
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. |
Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation |
(Percentage responses) # |
Survey Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment for Current Quarter |
Expectation for Next Quarter |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Q4: 2009-10 |
1079 |
50.5 |
7.4 |
42.1 |
43.1 |
50.4 |
5.5 |
44.2 |
44.9 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
1092 |
47.8 |
7.1 |
45.0 |
40.7 |
47.3 |
6.1 |
46.6 |
41.2 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
1403 |
46.7 |
8.0 |
45.3 |
38.7 |
47.6 |
6.2 |
46.2 |
41.5 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
1561 |
51.4 |
5.5 |
43.1 |
45.9 |
52.5 |
5.1 |
42.4 |
47.4 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
1524 |
46.0 |
7.4 |
46.6 |
38.6 |
54.2 |
4.1 |
41.8 |
50.1 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
1504 |
42.8 |
10.1 |
47.1 |
32.6 |
47.0 |
5.6 |
47.4 |
41.4 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
1528 |
34.1 |
15.4 |
50.5 |
18.7 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
46.6 |
39.8 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
1450 |
35.2 |
17.5 |
47.3 |
17.7 |
43.1 |
8.0 |
48.9 |
35.2 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
1234 |
37.8 |
11.3 |
50.9 |
26.5 |
43.6 |
10.0 |
46.5 |
33.6 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
1404 |
32.9 |
14.6 |
52.5 |
18.3 |
43.0 |
8.1 |
49.0 |
34.9 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
1561 |
32.8 |
16.7 |
50.5 |
16.1 |
40.2 |
9.7 |
50.1 |
30.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
1388 |
32.3 |
15.0 |
52.7 |
17.2 |
41.4 |
9.2 |
49.4 |
32.2 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
44.8 |
7.2 |
48.0 |
37.5 |
| ‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. |
Table 17: Business Expectation Index |
Quarter |
Assessment |
Expectations |
Index |
Change over previous quarter |
Change over previous year |
Index |
Change over previous quarter |
Change over previous year |
Q1: 2004-05 |
118.4 |
-3.0 |
8.6 |
121.5 |
-0.7 |
3.7 |
Q2: 2004-05 |
116.9 |
-1.5 |
2.6 |
120.0 |
-1.5 |
2.9 |
Q3: 2004-05 |
122.0 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
121.5 |
1.5 |
-0.6 |
Q4: 2004-05 |
122.5 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
123.2 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
Q1: 2005-06 |
117.5 |
-5.0 |
-0.9 |
120.7 |
-2.5 |
-0.8 |
Q2: 2005-06 |
114.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.0 |
119.6 |
-1.1 |
-0.4 |
Q3: 2005-06 |
124.3 |
9.4 |
2.3 |
122.7 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
Q4: 2005-06 |
120.7 |
-3.6 |
-1.8 |
125.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
Q1: 2006-07 |
121.8 |
1.1 |
4.3 |
120.5 |
-5.2 |
-0.2 |
Q2: 2006-07 |
120.7 |
-1.1 |
5.8 |
126.5 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
Q3: 2006-07 |
123.9 |
3.2 |
-0.4 |
125.3 |
-1.2 |
2.6 |
Q4: 2006-07 |
127.7 |
3.8 |
7.0 |
126.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
Q1: 2007-08 |
115.8 |
-11.9 |
-6.0 |
127.5 |
1.0 |
7.0 |
Q2: 2007-08 |
118.9 |
3.1 |
-1.8 |
121.1 |
-6.4 |
-5.4 |
Q3: 2007-08 |
115.9 |
-3.0 |
-8.0 |
124.4 |
3.3 |
-0.9 |
Q4: 2007-08 |
122.8 |
6.9 |
-4.9 |
118.6 |
-5.8 |
-7.9 |
Q1: 2008-09 |
116.2 |
-6.6 |
0.4 |
123.2 |
4.6 |
-4.3 |
Q2: 2008-09 |
113.4 |
-2.8 |
-5.5 |
122.1 |
-1.1 |
1.0 |
Q3: 2008-09 |
104.1 |
-9.3 |
-11.8 |
118.9 |
-3.2 |
-5.5 |
Q4: 2008-09 |
82.6 |
-21.5 |
-40.2 |
111.9 |
-7.0 |
-6.7 |
Q1: 2009-10 |
99.4 |
16.8 |
-16.8 |
96.4 |
-15.5 |
-26.8 |
Q2: 2009-10 |
107.2 |
7.8 |
-6.2 |
109.9 |
13.5 |
-12.2 |
Q3: 2009-10 |
112.8 |
5.6 |
8.7 |
116.4 |
6.5 |
-2.5 |
Q4: 2009-10 |
118.5 |
5.7 |
35.9 |
120.6 |
4.2 |
8.7 |
Q1: 2010-11 |
115.9 |
-2.6 |
16.5 |
119.8 |
-0.8 |
23.4 |
Q2: 2010-11 |
119.0 |
3.1 |
11.8 |
118.8 |
-1.0 |
8.9 |
Q3: 2010-11 |
122.8 |
3.8 |
10.0 |
126.5 |
7.7 |
10.1 |
Q4: 2010-11 |
122.0 |
-0.8 |
3.5 |
125.9 |
-0.6 |
5.3 |
Q1: 2011-12 |
116.3 |
-5.7 |
0.4 |
121.9 |
-4.0 |
2.1 |
Q2: 2011-12 |
109.4 |
-6.93 |
-9.67 |
121.5 |
-0.4 |
2.7 |
Q3: 2011-12 |
110.1 |
0.8 |
-12.7 |
118.8 |
-2.7 |
-7.7 |
Q4: 2011-12 |
114.9 |
4.8 |
-7.1 |
117.2 |
-1.6 |
-8.7 |
Q1: 2012-13 |
107.4 |
-7.5 |
-8.9 |
116.8 |
-0.4 |
-5.1 |
Q2: 2012-13 |
103.8 |
-3.6 |
-5.5 |
114.0 |
-2.8 |
-7.6 |
Q3: 2012-13 |
104.5 |
0.7 |
-4.9 |
115.7 |
1.7 |
-3.1 |
Q4: 2012-13 |
|
|
|
115.6 |
0.0 |
-3.1 |
Table18: Outlook for important business parameters according to Industries |
(Net response in per cent) |
|
Production |
Order books |
Availability of Finance |
Cost of raw material |
Cost of finance |
Profit Margin |
|
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Food products |
44.3 |
37.9 |
33.6 |
31.0 |
28.6 |
19.4 |
-58.6 |
-52.3 |
-14.7 |
-11.1 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
Textiles |
28.3 |
30.7 |
30.3 |
27.6 |
11.6 |
7.3 |
-40.2 |
-37.7 |
-21.9 |
-15.8 |
0.0 |
-6.8 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
25.5 |
21.2 |
16.1 |
17.7 |
11.7 |
14.0 |
-43.1 |
-44.1 |
-21.6 |
-22.2 |
-10.9 |
-9.8 |
Electrical machinery |
41.7 |
38.6 |
35.5 |
34.6 |
17.6 |
16.7 |
-46.6 |
-36.0 |
-22.0 |
-20.5 |
0.9 |
3.4 |
Other Machinery(Non-electrical machinery) & Apparatus |
29.3 |
39.9 |
24.3 |
32.2 |
20.6 |
14.9 |
-50.0 |
-55.9 |
-16.0 |
-18.4 |
-11.4 |
-6.0 |
Transport Equipment |
38.9 |
38.8 |
30.9 |
30.4 |
30.3 |
27.4 |
-46.8 |
-36.6 |
-16.0 |
-9.8 |
-5.5 |
0.0 |
Fertilisers |
22.6 |
13.3 |
20.8 |
0.0 |
25.8 |
10.0 |
-35.5 |
-33.3 |
-31.0 |
-10.7 |
6.7 |
-10.3 |
Pharmaceuticals & Medicines |
41.4 |
45.7 |
31.9 |
33.3 |
18.4 |
22.1 |
-63.0 |
-52.1 |
-19.1 |
-12.2 |
0.0 |
-2.1 |
Basic Chemicals |
44.1 |
40.4 |
35.3 |
31.3 |
26.3 |
24.5 |
-48.3 |
-44.7 |
-27.7 |
-33.3 |
5.2 |
2.2 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
45.1 |
59.4 |
50.6 |
40.0 |
32.6 |
23.6 |
-51.1 |
-44.9 |
-29.5 |
-15.5 |
4.3 |
8.5 |
Paper & Paper products |
44.2 |
45.0 |
38.1 |
41.7 |
23.3 |
31.7 |
-42.2 |
-37.5 |
-25.0 |
-23.1 |
-2.3 |
-15.0 |
Cement |
41.9 |
48.0 |
32.1 |
27.3 |
20.0 |
24.0 |
-35.5 |
-46.2 |
-10.0 |
-3.8 |
6.5 |
30.8 |
Wood & wood products |
33.3 |
71.4 |
35.7 |
53.3 |
26.7 |
26.7 |
-84.6 |
-64.3 |
-40.0 |
-40.0 |
16.7 |
42.9 |
Diversified companies |
42.9 |
43.1 |
43.8 |
31.3 |
15.0 |
34.7 |
-66.7 |
-50.0 |
-15.8 |
-26.1 |
15.0 |
0.0 |
Other industries |
34.4 |
34.0 |
28.6 |
31.0 |
27.4 |
27.1 |
-49.6 |
-41.7 |
-17.4 |
-16.0 |
3.8 |
-3.7 |
All Industries |
35.7 |
37.1 |
30.3 |
29.8 |
21.3 |
19.5 |
-48.6 |
-45.0 |
-20.6 |
-18.1 |
-1.3 |
-2.0 |
Table19: Outlook for important business parameters according to size
(PUC-wise and Annual production-wise) of responding companies |
(Net response in per cent) |
|
|
Production |
Order books |
Availability of Finance |
Cost of raw material |
Cost of finance |
Profit Margin |
|
|
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
Rd59 |
Rd60 |
PUC-Wise |
Small |
18.4 |
24.9 |
14.2 |
15.6 |
13.5 |
11.0 |
-55.0 |
-46.7 |
-20.7 |
-20.4 |
-13.4 |
-15.0 |
Medium |
38.6 |
39.2 |
33.1 |
32.3 |
22.8 |
20.8 |
-47.6 |
-44.5 |
-20.6 |
-18.3 |
-0.4 |
0.5 |
Big |
44.6 |
43.0 |
35.9 |
35.7 |
22.6 |
25.8 |
-43.9 |
-46.0 |
-19.5 |
-9.2 |
10.0 |
13.8 |
Annual Prod.-Wise |
Small |
31.5 |
34.7 |
24.3 |
25.6 |
16.3 |
13.7 |
-54.7 |
-50.7 |
-23.6 |
-21.4 |
-8.0 |
-7.3 |
Medium |
37.7 |
37.5 |
33.4 |
31.4 |
24.7 |
25.1 |
-44.6 |
-42.4 |
-19.8 |
-18.0 |
-1.3 |
-0.2 |
Big |
42.5 |
43.1 |
39.2 |
38.3 |
25.9 |
18.4 |
-42.1 |
-35.8 |
-13.6 |
-7.5 |
11.5 |
7.3 |
Table 20: Constraints for attaining the normal production level: Industry-wise |
|
Production Constraint |
NO |
YES |
Count |
Per cent |
Count |
Per cent |
Food products |
56 |
42.7 |
75 |
57.3 |
Textiles |
66 |
36.9 |
113 |
63.1 |
Basic Metals & Metal products |
77 |
42.5 |
104 |
57.5 |
Electrical machinery |
48 |
52.2 |
44 |
47.8 |
Other Machinery & Apparatus |
70 |
45.2 |
85 |
54.8 |
Transport Equipment |
37 |
42.5 |
50 |
57.5 |
Fertilisers |
17 |
54.8 |
14 |
45.2 |
Pharmaceutical & Medicines |
62 |
65.3 |
33 |
34.7 |
Basic Chemicals |
52 |
54.2 |
44 |
45.8 |
Rubber & Plastic products |
33 |
45.8 |
39 |
54.2 |
Paper & Paper products |
23 |
56.1 |
18 |
43.9 |
Cement |
11 |
42.3 |
15 |
57.7 |
Wood & wood products |
7 |
43.8 |
9 |
56.3 |
Diversified companies |
42 |
55.3 |
34 |
44.7 |
Other industries |
61 |
55.5 |
49 |
44.5 |
All Industries |
662 |
47.7 |
726 |
52.3 |
|