Skip to main content
Click here to Visit the RBI’s new website

BBBPLogo

publications

PDF document (324 kb)
Date : Feb 07, 2025
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of January 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during January 2-11, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 6,096 valid responses, where female participation was 55.4 per cent.

Highlights:

  1. Households' median inflation perception moderated marginally by 10 basis points (bps) from the previous survey round to 8.3 per cent [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. Inflation expectations for the three months and one-year horizons increased by 20 bps and 10 bps to 9.3 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  3. The share of households anticipating rise in general prices and inflation for both near term as well as the coming year has increased [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  4. Respondents expect somewhat higher inflationary pressures across product groups, especially for food products and housing for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  5. One year ahead price expectation of households is closely aligned with food prices and housing related expenses [Table 4].

Chart_1

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 78.2 0.84 82.3 0.77 79.7 0.89 79.3 0.89 81.6 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 54.4 1.09 60.5 1.13 55.5 1.21 53.6 1.24 57.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.80 17.3 0.86 19.2 0.86 19.9 0.87 19.2 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.43 4.5 0.48 5.0 0.55 5.8 0.49 4.4 0.44
No changes in prices 18.3 0.79 14.6 0.71 17.9 0.85 18.7 0.87 16.5 0.76
Decline in prices 3.6 0.37 3.1 0.37 2.5 0.32 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 80.2 0.77 84.2 0.70 83.9 0.75 83.9 0.75 83.2 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 59.3 1.00 62.1 1.03 60.7 1.07 60.7 1.08 59.3 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 15.6 0.72 16.0 0.75 16.7 0.77 17.0 0.81 17.3 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.45 6.1 0.52 6.6 0.58 6.2 0.50 6.7 0.53
No changes in prices 12.3 0.65 10.2 0.57 11.2 0.67 11.1 0.64 11.5 0.66
Decline in prices 7.5 0.51 5.6 0.47 4.9 0.42 5.0 0.44 5.3 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 74.0 0.85 77.0 0.81 76.1 0.92 75.9 0.90 75.2 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 52.3 1.03 54.5 1.10 52.4 1.11 51.7 1.14 52.5 1.04
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.71 16.2 0.79 17.7 0.78 17.9 0.78 16.8 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.45 6.2 0.52 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.50 6.0 0.47
No changes in prices 18.6 0.76 17.6 0.74 19.1 0.85 19.9 0.85 20.4 0.79
Decline in prices 7.4 0.52 5.4 0.48 4.7 0.42 4.2 0.39 4.4 0.40
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 65.5 0.93 68.2 0.97 64.9 1.03 66.5 1.00 67.0 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 46.3 1.04 49.6 1.09 45.9 1.11 46.3 1.11 46.9 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 14.5 0.65 13.9 0.73 14.2 0.71 14.5 0.70 14.7 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.42 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.48 5.7 0.50 5.4 0.45
No changes in prices 25.2 0.85 23.4 0.88 25.2 0.97 24.8 0.89 25.3 0.92
Decline in prices 9.4 0.57 8.4 0.58 9.8 0.55 8.7 0.55 7.8 0.50
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.4 0.83 78.6 0.84 77.7 0.88 78.9 0.85 78.5 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 58.2 1.05 59.6 1.07 56.9 1.11 57.4 1.14 58.0 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 16.1 0.72 14.8 0.78 16.3 0.75 16.4 0.76 15.6 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.41 4.1 0.45 4.5 0.48 5.1 0.46 4.9 0.44
No changes in prices 18.1 0.79 18.2 0.78 19.1 0.87 18.2 0.79 18.3 0.87
Decline in prices 3.6 0.34 3.2 0.37 3.3 0.35 2.9 0.33 3.2 0.36
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 65.0 0.93 71.0 0.95 66.9 1.04 66.3 0.99 68.4 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 46.1 1.02 52.7 1.12 46.9 1.15 46.6 1.12 48.2 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 15.0 0.69 13.6 0.70 15.5 0.73 14.8 0.70 14.9 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.37 4.6 0.46 4.5 0.46 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.45
No changes in prices 30.5 0.91 25.3 0.90 29.8 1.01 30.7 0.98 28.4 0.96
Decline in prices 4.5 0.41 3.7 0.38 3.2 0.35 2.9 0.33 3.1 0.36
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 88.7 0.63 90.6 0.60 89.4 0.73 89.6 0.67 90.6 0.62
Price increase more than current rate 66.3 1.06 68.6 1.12 66.5 1.20 66.9 1.14 68.7 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 19.1 0.83 18.3 0.86 18.6 0.91 18.6 0.85 18.1 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 3.3 0.36 3.7 0.43 4.4 0.50 4.1 0.40 3.8 0.43
No changes in prices 8.2 0.55 6.6 0.50 8.6 0.67 8.2 0.62 7.4 0.55
Decline in prices 3.0 0.36 2.9 0.35 2.0 0.28 2.2 0.30 2.0 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.4 0.68 87.1 0.65 86.6 0.78 89.0 0.66 88.8 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 63.6 1.03 63.5 1.09 61.8 1.20 64.4 1.13 63.5 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 18.2 0.77 19.0 0.84 19.2 0.85 19.3 0.87 19.7 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.43 4.6 0.48 5.6 0.55 5.3 0.48 5.6 0.51
No changes in prices 8.7 0.53 7.9 0.52 9.7 0.66 7.3 0.53 7.7 0.55
Decline in prices 4.9 0.43 5.0 0.43 3.8 0.38 3.7 0.38 3.5 0.36
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.0 0.80 82.9 0.77 82.4 0.85 81.9 0.81 83.3 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 59.1 1.11 61.2 1.12 58.3 1.20 56.7 1.19 59.4 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 0.79 16.9 0.80 18.5 0.83 19.5 0.84 18.6 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.41 4.8 0.46 5.6 0.57 5.6 0.48 5.2 0.46
No changes in prices 13.1 0.66 12.4 0.64 14.0 0.77 14.7 0.76 13.2 0.69
Decline in prices 4.8 0.45 4.7 0.44 3.6 0.37 3.4 0.36 3.6 0.37
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 74.8 0.84 77.4 0.83 76.2 0.93 76.8 0.90 76.3 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 54.0 1.06 56.6 1.12 54.5 1.16 54.8 1.18 54.3 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.69 16.1 0.76 16.5 0.79 16.9 0.76 17.0 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.41 4.8 0.49 5.1 0.50 5.0 0.45 5.0 0.47
No changes in prices 18.3 0.75 16.3 0.73 17.3 0.79 17.6 0.81 18.0 0.82
Decline in prices 6.9 0.49 6.3 0.48 6.5 0.49 5.6 0.46 5.6 0.43
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.0 0.65 88.2 0.66 87.7 0.74 88.8 0.70 88.7 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 67.7 0.96 66.6 1.05 65.9 1.07 66.7 1.09 67.6 1.05
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.74 17.7 0.80 17.0 0.79 17.6 0.83 17.0 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.40 3.9 0.43 4.8 0.53 4.5 0.45 4.1 0.45
No changes in prices 9.1 0.55 8.6 0.55 8.9 0.60 8.7 0.61 8.8 0.59
Decline in prices 2.9 0.34 3.2 0.36 3.4 0.40 2.5 0.30 2.5 0.31
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 79.5 0.78 83.4 0.76 82.2 0.85 81.7 0.90 81.9 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 58.8 1.03 61.6 1.17 58.8 1.18 58.4 1.19 58.8 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 16.6 0.72 17.4 0.82 17.9 0.80 18.3 0.82 18.2 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.40 4.4 0.45 5.5 0.57 4.9 0.44 5.0 0.47
No changes in prices 17.0 0.72 13.2 0.67 15.3 0.80 15.7 0.84 15.5 0.79
Decline in prices 3.5 0.37 3.4 0.39 2.4 0.30 2.6 0.32 2.6 0.33
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jan-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.0 0.13 8.4 0.17 9.8 0.14 9.4 0.31 9.9 0.16 10.1 0.15
Female 8.8 0.11 8.2 0.13 9.8 0.12 9.5 0.28 9.9 0.14 10.2 0.09
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.1 0.41 9.1 1.01 10.0 0.45 10.0 0.52 10.3 0.53 10.2 0.52
Other Employees 9.0 0.19 8.4 0.22 10.0 0.19 9.5 0.38 10.0 0.22 10.2 0.16
Self Employed 8.8 0.20 8.1 0.25 9.4 0.21 8.6 0.27 9.7 0.23 9.8 0.32
Homemaker 8.8 0.13 8.2 0.16 9.8 0.14 9.4 0.32 9.8 0.17 10.2 0.12
Retired Persons 9.3 0.35 8.6 0.57 9.9 0.38 9.0 0.69 9.4 0.48 8.7 0.64
Daily Workers 9.0 0.25 8.5 0.35 10.0 0.29 9.9 0.42 10.2 0.34 10.4 0.24
Other category 8.4 0.21 7.9 0.23 9.6 0.23 9.0 0.31 9.8 0.26 10.2 0.23
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.3 0.16 7.7 0.19 9.3 0.17 8.6 0.20 9.7 0.21 9.8 0.28
25 to 30 years 8.6 0.17 8.1 0.19 9.7 0.19 9.6 0.36 9.9 0.23 10.2 0.21
30 to 35 years 8.9 0.19 8.3 0.28 9.9 0.20 9.7 0.40 10.1 0.23 10.3 0.18
35 to 40 years 8.9 0.18 8.4 0.21 9.9 0.20 9.8 0.31 9.9 0.24 10.3 0.14
40 to 45 years 9.0 0.21 8.5 0.28 9.9 0.22 9.6 0.43 10.0 0.26 10.2 0.23
45 to 50 years 9.0 0.23 8.5 0.34 10.0 0.24 9.8 0.52 10.1 0.28 10.4 0.19
50 to 55 years 8.9 0.25 8.2 0.45 9.7 0.28 9.1 0.53 9.6 0.34 9.8 0.55
55 to 60 years 9.2 0.28 8.9 0.47 9.8 0.30 9.1 0.50 9.4 0.34 9.7 0.48
60 years and above 9.2 0.27 8.6 0.58 10.0 0.30 9.3 0.69 9.8 0.34 9.8 0.64
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.5 0.27 6.8 0.33 8.6 0.31 7.8 0.38 8.5 0.37 8.1 0.39
Bengaluru 6.4 0.21 5.6 0.11 7.9 0.25 7.1 0.28 8.4 0.27 7.9 0.28
Bhopal 9.6 0.49 9.6 0.94 10.6 0.43 10.4 0.35 9.9 0.54 10.4 0.34
Bhubaneswar 8.5 0.62 8.4 1.35 10.2 0.69 9.7 1.38 10.8 0.86 10.5 1.21
Chennai 8.7 0.27 9.2 0.70 9.5 0.42 9.7 0.74 10.4 0.53 10.9 0.50
Delhi 10.1 0.21 10.1 0.17 10.3 0.23 10.2 0.26 10.3 0.24 10.5 0.19
Guwahati 9.3 0.75 9.7 0.86 9.9 0.69 9.9 0.97 10.5 0.83 10.4 1.15
Hyderabad 8.2 0.20 7.1 0.42 10.0 0.25 9.3 0.52 10.5 0.34 10.6 0.51
Jaipur 7.6 0.46 7.3 0.62 7.8 0.38 7.6 0.58 7.1 0.56 6.8 0.74
Jammu 10.4 0.54 10.2 0.55 8.8 0.61 8.9 0.79 9.2 0.85 9.8 1.36
Kolkata 11.1 0.30 10.6 0.16 11.6 0.32 11.4 0.70 11.3 0.34 11.6 0.84
Lucknow 8.4 0.42 8.0 0.27 9.2 0.41 8.5 0.25 8.7 0.64 9.1 0.41
Mumbai 8.7 0.20 8.0 0.17 10.2 0.21 10.2 0.16 10.3 0.29 10.6 0.17
Nagpur 9.1 0.39 8.6 0.46 10.4 0.40 9.7 0.54 10.4 0.76 11.1 0.84
Patna 7.8 0.45 7.3 0.36 8.0 0.43 7.8 0.33 8.3 0.52 8.3 0.60
Thiruvananthapuram 7.8 0.74 6.0 1.03 9.1 0.71 7.5 1.12 10.2 0.70 9.4 1.31
Chandigarh 10.6 0.69 10.1 0.52 10.2 0.55 10.1 0.71 10.7 0.68 10.6 0.84
Ranchi 9.0 0.49 8.3 0.37 9.2 0.48 8.5 0.36 9.3 0.76 9.0 0.65
Raipur 9.7 0.91 10.4 0.92 10.0 1.10 10.3 2.21 8.7 1.04 9.9 2.57
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jan-24 8.8 0.09 8.1 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.2 0.17 9.6 0.10 10.0 0.13
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Nov-24 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
Jan-25 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jan-24 65.2 65.4 60.8 64.2 65.8
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
Nov-24 65.7 66.2 61.0 64.1 71.3
Jan-25 66.2 66.2 61.1 65.3 66.0
One Year Ahead
Jan-24 76.5 74.1 67.9 74.9 74.6
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9
Nov-24 79.6 73.8 70.1 75.7 74.4
Jan-25 75.3 73.1 67.8 75.3 73.9

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 8 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-<2 0 18 23 4 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51
2-<3 0 10 84 47 33 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194
3-<4 0 2 8 88 50 52 13 2 2 0 8 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 229
4-<5 0 1 8 0 121 79 56 18 8 1 19 12 16 5 1 7 3 0 355
5-<6 0 3 11 28 14 464 183 213 88 7 117 1 2 0 1 5 16 0 1153
6-<7 0 1 1 3 2 6 162 103 67 27 27 1 6 0 0 2 1 0 409
7-<8 0 0 4 0 0 12 5 194 136 51 65 4 5 0 5 3 3 0 487
8-<9 0 1 0 1 4 7 5 7 218 98 154 27 28 5 1 6 3 0 565
9-<10 0 2 3 1 0 1 7 1 2 97 59 19 25 5 3 1 1 0 227
10-<11 0 6 12 10 6 26 2 5 8 7 385 79 230 56 17 260 73 1 1183
11-<12 2 5 0 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 10 17 4 1 4 2 0 54
12-<13 0 1 6 11 6 14 11 4 0 1 1 0 46 17 32 30 10 0 190
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 6 0 0 17
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 8 6 9 0 28
15-<16 0 1 1 2 0 21 23 1 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 54 135 0 245
>=16 0 1 0 2 4 32 9 1 1 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 628 1 693
Total 10 54 164 205 242 737 483 549 534 290 855 153 380 99 71 384 884 2 6096


Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-<2 2 12 19 11 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51
2-<3 24 3 33 55 50 20 5 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194
3-<4 29 0 3 33 47 71 21 9 6 2 5 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 229
4-<5 39 1 0 2 50 73 67 24 20 5 17 5 20 5 6 9 12 0 355
5-<6 119 0 0 6 7 272 145 185 116 35 200 7 9 1 1 30 20 0 1153
6-<7 39 0 1 1 0 4 79 86 84 33 42 9 20 1 0 2 8 0 409
7-<8 58 0 0 0 1 1 3 91 98 69 103 10 22 1 2 17 10 1 487
8-<9 54 0 0 0 0 6 5 5 96 56 176 31 70 22 9 19 16 0 565
9-<10 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 43 53 22 39 9 6 18 5 0 227
10-<11 67 2 7 9 10 16 8 4 7 2 233 54 195 59 24 302 184 0 1183
11-<12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 15 4 3 6 4 0 54
12-<13 15 2 3 4 4 15 9 4 1 2 0 0 28 14 36 32 21 0 190
13-<14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 6 2 0 17
14-<15 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 14 0 28
15-<16 16 0 0 0 8 4 1 1 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 46 163 0 245
>=16 62 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 0 14 597 1 693
Total 575 24 69 124 183 490 344 412 431 250 845 148 420 120 90 512 1057 2 6096

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on December 06, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

Top