1. Introduction
The Reserve Bank has been conducting Consumer
Confidence Survey (CCS) on a quarterly basis since
June 2010.The survey captures qualitative responses
on questions pertaining to economic conditions,
household circumstances, income, spending, prices
and employment prospects. The survey results are
based on the views of the respondents and are not
necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India. The
responses are analysed in two parts, viz., current
situation as compared with a year ago and expectations
for a year ahead. The quarterly results of CCS are
released on the RBI website. This article presents
analysis of survey results covering a longer time period,
with particular focus on the last four rounds (Q2:
2013-14 to Q1:2014-15) of the survey.
2. Sample Coverage and Survey Questionnaire
The survey is conducted in six metropolitan
cities, viz., Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi. In each round of survey,
5,400 respondents are selected (900 respondents from
each city). A two stage sampling design is adopted for
the survey. At the first stage in a city, the polling
booths are selected using systematic random sampling
technique, after arranging these according to various
constituencies. In order to ensure wide geographical
coverage, 45 polling booths spread over the entire
city are selected. From each polling booth area, 20
respondents are selected following the right hand
rule.
The survey schedule is organised into four blocks
covering the respondent’s details, economic conditions,
household circumstances and general views on
income, spending etc. and perceptions on price level.
From Q2:2012-13 (10th round) onwards, the survey
schedule was modified to include perceptions on
future household circumstances, outlay for major
expenditures viz., motor vehicle, house, consumer
durables, etc., current employment scenario and
current/future rate of price change. Qualitative
information is obtained on a three point scale i.e.
positive/no change/ negative.
Box 1
Consumer Confidence Index – A cross-country practice
Consumer confidence is considered to be a leading
indicator of economic trends. With globalisation greater
liberalisation of the domestic financial system and
increasingly deregulated markets, need for quick and
forward looking information has increased. Many
developed economies conduct consumer confidence
surveys. Some of the leading surveys are given below:
USA: Two institutions viz., the Conference Board and
University of Michigan collect 5,000 and 500 respondents’
views respectively and compiles consumer confidence
index on monthly basis. University of Michigan captures information on current family finances, future family
finances, future business conditions, future national
economy and current buying conditions parameters.
The Conference Board collates information on current
business conditions, business conditions for the next six
months, current employment conditions and employment
conditions for the next six months and total family income
for the next six months.
Japan: Bank of Japan collects around 5,000 respondents’
view and compiles consumer confidence index on monthly basis. Survey schedule comprises of questions for
eliciting information on select parameters viz., economic
conditions, household circumstances, price levels, future
land prices, growth potential of the Japanese economy and
recognition and credibility of the Bank.
Australia: Westpac-Melbourne Institute collects views of
around 1,200 respondents on monthly basis in Australia
for Consumer Confidence Survey. The survey comprises
of five parameters viz., family finances v/s. a year ago,
family finances next 12 months, economic conditions
next 12 months, economic conditions next 5 years and
good or bad time to buy major household items.
UK: GfK NOP collects 2,000 respondents’ view on monthly
basis for compiling consumer confidence. GfK NOP captures information on five parameters viz., personal
financial situation over the last 12 months, personal
financial situation over the next 12 months, general
economic situation over the last 12 months, General
economic situation over the next 12 months and ‘a good
time or bad time for the average person to make a major
outlay for items such as a furniture or electrical goods
purchasing sentiments’.
Euro Area: European commission conducts Consumer
Confidence Survey by phone and covers 23,000 households
on monthly basis. The questions focus on current
economic and financial situation, saving intention as well
as on expected developments regarding: consumer price
indices, general economic situation and major purchases
of durable goods.
3. Survey Results
The survey results are shown for each parameter
based on net response (difference between positive
and negative perceptions). For reporting purpose,
current is used for current situation as compared with
one year ago and future is used for expectations for
one year ahead period.
3.1 Economic Conditions
The net response on current economic conditions
became negative from Q2:2012-13 onwards and could
not recover thereafter (Chart 1).
The optimism regarding future economic
conditions has consistently been better than that
pertaining to the current economic conditions (Chart 1). The net responses in this case also turned negative
during Q4:2012-13 to Q2:2013-14 of the survey.
However, it turned positive since Q3: 2013-14. The net
responses on future economic conditions appear to
show sharp improvement after Q3:2013-14, rising from
4.7 per cent to 39.1 per cent.
3.2 Household Circumstances
Net response on current household circumstances
showed a sign of improvement from Q3:2013-14. It is
observed that the outlook on household circumstances
has been better than the current scenario (Chart 2).
However, the net responses on future household
circumstances witnessed rise since Q2:2013-14 and
reached around 49 per cent in Q1:2014-15.
‘Salary and business income’ and ‘prices’ are the
two major factors that have influenced respondents’
perceptions on household circumstances across all the
survey rounds (Table 3).
3.3 Income
The net response on current and future income
perceptions was at its lowest in Q2:2013-14 but
witnessed improvement in subsequent survey rounds.
Current income perceptions have remained consistently
lower as compared to the net perceptions on future income. The net response on future income improved
to more than 50 per cent in latest two rounds i.e.
Q4:2013-14 & Q1:2014-15 (Chart 3).
The proportion of respondents, who reported
relatively higher income as compared to the last year,
has increased consistently from 34.5 per cent in Q2:
2013-14 to about 39.1 per cent in Q1:2014-15. However,
this proportion in respect of future income expectations
has remained above 40 per cent during last four
quarters. About 43-54 per cent respondents reported
that their income has remained at the same level as
that of last year. However, the same proportion for
future expectations is about 30-41 per cent only
(Table 4).
3.4 Spending
The net response on future spending has
remained consistently lower as compared to net
response on current spending. The net responses on
current as well as future spending appear to show
some improvement in Q1:2014-15 (Chart 4).
More than three-fourths of the respondents
reported that their current spending has increased as
compared to a year ago (Table 5). However, this proportion in respect of increased future spending in
the next year has been significantly lower.
‘Cost of consumer goods’, ‘cost of services’ and
‘income’ were observed to be the major factors that
have influenced the perceptions on current spending
(Table 6).
3.5 Perceptions on Price Levels and Inflation
Net responses on current price level are below
90 per cent during last one year. These proportions
were marginally lower in respect of net responses on
future price levels (Chart 5). During the last four
rounds, the proportion of respondents expecting
prices to rise has decreased. The net response on
expectations on price rise improved from 80 per cent
to 70 per cent.
Extending the query, the respondents among those
who reported increase in price levels were asked
whether the rate of price rise (i.e., inflation) would be
higher or same or lower. In terms of net responses, more
than 80 per cent of respondents expected inflation to
increase over the next year (Chart 6, Table 8).
3.6 Cross Tabulations on Income versus Spending
and Inflation versus Spending
The cross tabulation on income and spending for
last four rounds are given in Table 9. About 27-32 per
cent of respondents reported increase in current
spending to be associated with increase in current
income. About 21- 38 per cent of respondents, reported
increase in current spending even with current income
remaining same or lower. The strength of association
of expected increase in future spending with increase
in future income is observed to be relatively lower as
about 14-24 per cent respondents reported increase in
expected spending to be associated with increase in
future income.
The cross tabulation on inflation and spending
for last four rounds are given in Table 10 providing
further insights on spending perceptions. The analysis
of responses reveal that about 63-74 per cent of the
respondents reported higher current spending in
association with higher current inflation. Against 23-32
per cent respondents reported association of increase
in future spending with increase in expected inflation
as expected expectations of rise in future inflation was
associated with lower spending intentions.
3.7 Perceptions on other Macroeconomic Indicators
3.7.1 Employment: In general, the respondents had
more optimistic outlook regarding employment. The
similar pattern is observed in terms of net responses
on employment perceptions (Chart 7).
The proportion of respondents expecting
improvement in the future employment scenario has consistently been higher than those who felt
improvement in current employment prospects
(Table 12).
3.7.2 Plan for major expenses: Respondents were
asked whether it was a good time to make major outlay
for any major purchases viz., motor vehicle, house or
durable goods. Gold/bullion was added as an item in
the list from Q4:2012-13. During the last four rounds,
less than 32 per cent of respondents reported that this
is the right time to make outlays for major purchases
viz., motor vehicle, house, durable goods and gold.
Around one third of the respondents reported that it
is a good time for purchasing gold (Table 12).
3.8 Consumer Confidence Index
3.8.1 Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future
Expectations Index (FEI)
In the pre Q2:2012-13 rounds, the CSI was based
on the net responses in respect of economic
conditions, household circumstances, income,
spending and price levels and FEI was based on the
net responses in respect of economic conditions,
income, spending, employment conditions and price
levels. From Q2:2012-13, these indices have been worked out using the common set of parameters viz.
economic conditions, household circumstances,
income, spending, employment conditions and price
levels (new methodology in Annex 2).
CSI and FEI were at their lowest in Q2:2013-14
since their inception. But CSI recovered slowly and
reached threshold level in Q1:2014-15. However, there
has been significant improvement in FEI due to
increase in the positive perceptions on almost all
parameters during last four rounds of survey, however,
increase is not uniform across all indicators. Overall
the consumer confidence index reflects improvements
in the positive perceptions, in general, there exists optimism regarding future circumstances as compared
to current situation.
3.8.2 Robustness of Estimates
In order to evaluate the quality of estimates, the
confidence intervals for mean CSI and FEI have been
estimated using bootstrap methodology. Based on
10,000 re-samples selected through ‘simple random
sampling with replacement’, the 99 per cent bootstrap
confidence intervals for mean CSI and mean FEI are
given in Table 14. The width of confidence intervals
varied between 2.7 to 3.2 indicating the robustness of
the estimates of CSI and FEI.
Annex 1 – Data Tables
Table 1: Opinion on Economic Conditions |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Improve |
22.4 |
22.7 |
29.5 |
25.5 |
29.9 |
34.8 |
47.6 |
56.7 |
Remain same |
18.4 |
23.3 |
31.3 |
34.6 |
31.5 |
35.1 |
31.2 |
25.6 |
Worsen |
59.3 |
54.0 |
39.1 |
39.9 |
38.6 |
30.1 |
21.1 |
17.6 |
Net Response |
-36.9 |
-31.2 |
-9.6 |
-14.4 |
-8.8 |
4.7 |
26.5 |
39.1 |
Table 2: Perceptions on Household circumstances |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Improve |
30.8 |
23.7 |
32.4 |
36.5 |
33.3 |
37.1 |
52.9 |
59.7 |
Remain same |
30.4 |
38.6 |
41.3 |
36.3 |
38.0 |
43.3 |
34.7 |
29.5 |
Worsen |
38.8 |
37.7 |
26.2 |
27.2 |
28.7 |
19.6 |
12.4 |
10.9 |
Net Response |
-8.0 |
-14.0 |
6.2 |
9.3 |
4.6 |
17.5 |
40.5 |
48.8 |
Table 3: Major Factors influencing views on Household Circumstances |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Salary and business income |
84.1 |
70.0 |
74.8 |
84.4 |
81.3 |
77.2 |
72.1 |
90.0 |
Interest and dividend income |
30.8 |
15.4 |
22.4 |
14.9 |
32.8 |
15.6 |
18.7 |
14.8 |
Income from real estate sales |
26.6 |
12.1 |
17.6 |
13.1 |
26.2 |
12.2 |
16.1 |
13.7 |
Prices |
76.0 |
78.8 |
81.7 |
74.4 |
70.6 |
70.9 |
75.8 |
73.1 |
Change in value of assets |
25.8 |
12.8 |
17.4 |
7.6 |
26.3 |
13.6 |
17.4 |
8.1 |
The number of dependent in my family |
34.5 |
19.7 |
33.2 |
20.4 |
37.2 |
20.4 |
30.0 |
19.1 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, the per centage responses may add up to be more than 100. |
Table 4: Perceptions on Income |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Increase |
34.5 |
30.9 |
34.3 |
39.1 |
41.7 |
45.4 |
58.9 |
63.9 |
Remain same |
43.5 |
53.5 |
54.2 |
46.7 |
41.2 |
46.4 |
35.8 |
30.8 |
Decrease |
21.9 |
15.5 |
11.5 |
14.3 |
17.1 |
8.2 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
Net Response |
12.6 |
15.4 |
22.8 |
24.8 |
24.6 |
37.2 |
53.6 |
58.7 |
Table 5: Perceptions on Spending |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Increase |
61.8 |
76.7 |
73.9 |
77.1 |
28.4 |
26.4 |
25.1 |
36.3 |
Remain same |
30.7 |
19.4 |
19.4 |
16.0 |
39.5 |
44.8 |
46.6 |
32.6 |
Decrease |
7.5 |
3.9 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
32.1 |
28.8 |
28.3 |
31.2 |
Net Response |
54.3 |
72.8 |
67.3 |
70.3 |
-3.7 |
-2.4 |
-3.3 |
5.1 |
Table 6: Major Factors influencing Spending Perception |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Income |
Future
income |
Non-
financial
assets |
Financial
assets |
Expenditure on
real estate |
Expenditure
on consumer
durables |
Number of
dependents |
Cost of
consumer
goods |
Cost of
services |
Q2:2013-14 |
66.6 |
32.1 |
20.5 |
40.0 |
26.2 |
39.0 |
49.9 |
79.4 |
70.4 |
Q3:2013-14 |
51.2 |
22.2 |
9.7 |
17.7 |
20.8 |
38.2 |
41.8 |
83.0 |
66.9 |
Q4:2013-14 |
49.0 |
26.0 |
11.3 |
24.7 |
21.6 |
46.6 |
50.2 |
75.2 |
71.7 |
Q1:2014-15 |
61.7 |
29.6 |
10.9 |
16.7 |
23.8 |
34.5 |
36.1 |
67.6 |
62.1 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of per centage relating to factors may be more than 100. |
Table 7: Perceptions on price level |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Increase |
85.2 |
94.2 |
88.9 |
89.7 |
82.6 |
83.0 |
73.6 |
76.7 |
Remain same |
11.4 |
5.1 |
9.1 |
8.8 |
13.1 |
14.0 |
19.9 |
16.1 |
Decrease |
3.4 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
Net Response |
-81.8 |
-93.5 |
-86.9 |
-88.2 |
-78.2 |
-80.0 |
-67.2 |
-69.5 |
Note: Perceptions of increase/decrease in prices is considered to be negative/positive sentiments. |
Table 8: Perceptions on rate of change in price levels (Inflation) |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Increase |
89.0 |
93.4 |
83.8 |
87.1 |
85.4 |
87.8 |
80.8 |
84.0 |
Remain Same |
8.3 |
6.2 |
14.5 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
11.1 |
16.3 |
14.5 |
Decrease |
2.7 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
Net Response |
-86.3 |
-93.0 |
-82.2 |
-85.4 |
-81.6 |
-86.6 |
-77.9 |
-82.4 |
Note: Perceptions of increase/decrease in inflations is considered to be negative/positive sentiments. |
Table 9: Cross-tabulation of Income and Spending |
(Per centage responses) |
Income |
Spending |
Current Income Vs. Current Spending |
Future Income Vs. Future Spending |
Increase |
Remain same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Remain same |
Decrease |
Q2:
2013-14 |
Increase |
26.9 |
6.7 |
0.9 |
14.2 |
14.3 |
13.1 |
Remain same |
21.7 |
19.3 |
2.4 |
9.9 |
18.6 |
12.8 |
Decrease |
13.2 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
6.5 |
6.2 |
Q3:
2013-14 |
Increase |
26.6 |
3.7 |
0.7 |
14.5 |
18.7 |
12.2 |
Remain same |
37.7 |
14.3 |
1.5 |
10.4 |
23.7 |
12.2 |
Decrease |
12.5 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
4.4 |
Q4:
2013-14 |
Increase |
29.3 |
4.2 |
0.8 |
18.1 |
24.0 |
16.8 |
Remain same |
36.3 |
13.9 |
4.0 |
5.7 |
20.9 |
9.1 |
Decrease |
8.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
Q1:
2014-15 |
Increase |
31.9 |
5.3 |
1.9 |
24.4 |
19.0 |
20.5 |
Remain same |
34.5 |
9.1 |
3.1 |
10.4 |
12.2 |
8.3 |
Decrease |
10.7 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
Table 10: Cross-tabulation of Inflation and Spending |
(Per centage responses) |
Income |
Spending |
Current Income Vs. Current Spending |
Future Income Vs. Future Spending |
Increase |
Remain same |
Decrease |
Increase |
Remain same |
Decrease |
Q2:
2013-14 |
Increase |
63.4 |
19.7 |
5.9 |
25.2 |
31.6 |
28.6 |
Remain same |
4.0 |
4.0 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
5.2 |
2.5 |
Decrease |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
Q3:
2013-14 |
Increase |
73.8 |
16.4 |
3.3 |
23.6 |
37.0 |
27.2 |
Remain same |
4.9 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
2.8 |
5.1 |
3.2 |
Decrease |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
Q4:
2013-14 |
Increase |
66.1 |
13.5 |
4.2 |
23.7 |
32.3 |
24.7 |
Remain same |
10.5 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
3.6 |
9.4 |
3.3 |
Decrease |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
Q1:
2014-15 |
Increase |
69.5 |
12.1 |
5.6 |
32.0 |
24.7 |
27.3 |
Remain same |
8.0 |
2.5 |
0.6 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
2.7 |
Decrease |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
Table 11: Current & Future perceptions on Employment |
(Per centage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Improve |
26.6 |
29.1 |
28.3 |
30.8 |
35.3 |
45.1 |
54.6 |
65.1 |
Remain Same |
34.6 |
36.5 |
43.0 |
39.0 |
34.0 |
34.7 |
29.9 |
24.8 |
Worsen |
38.8 |
34.4 |
28.7 |
30.2 |
30.7 |
20.2 |
15.5 |
10.1 |
Net Response |
-12.1 |
-5.3 |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
24.9 |
39.0 |
54.9 |
Table 12: Perceptions on Outlays for Major Expenditure |
(Per centage responses) |
|
|
Q2:13-14 |
Q3:13-14 |
Q4:13-14 |
Q1:14-15 |
Motor Vehicle |
Yes |
13.1 |
14.4 |
21.1 |
17.9 |
Can’t Say |
19.2 |
17.3 |
21.9 |
20.6 |
No |
67.7 |
68.2 |
57.0 |
61.5 |
House |
Yes |
14.1 |
17.7 |
19.7 |
25.4 |
Can’t Say |
16.6 |
15.4 |
18.7 |
19.2 |
No |
69.3 |
67.0 |
61.6 |
55.4 |
Durable goods |
Yes |
15.3 |
21.9 |
20.2 |
29.7 |
Can’t Say |
18.4 |
18.6 |
27.3 |
21.8 |
No |
66.4 |
59.4 |
52.5 |
48.5 |
Gold |
Yes |
9.8 |
18.9 |
15.5 |
32.0 |
Can’t Say |
12.2 |
15.4 |
15.7 |
17.8 |
No |
78.0 |
65.8 |
68.8 |
50.2 |
Table 13: Current and Future Expectations Index |
|
Q3: 10-11 |
Q4: 10-11 |
Q1: 11-12 |
Q2: 11-12 |
Q3: 11-12 |
Q4: 11-12 |
Q1: 12-13 |
Q2: 12-13 |
Q3: 12-13 |
Q4: 12-13 |
Q1: 13-14 |
Q2: 13-14 |
Q3: 13-14 |
Q4: 13-14 |
Q1: 14-15 |
CSI |
116.7 |
112.2 |
116.3 |
115.0 |
116.2 |
114.6 |
106.7 |
106.2 |
105.5 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
88.0 |
89.9 |
99.9 |
100.4 |
CSI (Revised) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
107.0 |
106.9 |
101.7 |
101.7 |
88.0 |
90.7 |
99.9 |
100.4 |
FEI |
118.9 |
120.8 |
120.2 |
118.7 |
120.2 |
115.5 |
115.3 |
104.7 |
102.1 |
100.4 |
106.2 |
87.7 |
96.9 |
109.7 |
117.7 |
FEI (Revised) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
107.7 |
105.6 |
103.9 |
109.8 |
90.5 |
100.3 |
114.9 |
122.9 |
Table 14: 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (BCI) Based on 10,000 Resamples |
Survey
Round |
Survey
Quarter ended |
CSI |
FEI |
99% BCI for Mean |
Interval width |
99% BCI for Mean |
Interval width |
14 |
Q2:13-14 |
(86.5,89.5) |
3.0 |
(88.9,92.1) |
3.2 |
15 |
Q3:13-14 |
(89.3,92.1) |
2.8 |
(98.8,101.8) |
3.0 |
16 |
Q4:13-14 |
(98.4,101.4) |
3.0 |
(113.3,116.4) |
3.1 |
18 |
Q1:14-15 |
(99.0,101.7) |
2.7 |
(121.5,124.2) |
2.7 |
Annex 2: Methodology
Current Situation Index & Future Expectations Index
In standard opinion surveys, respondents generally
have three reply options such as up/same/down; or
above-normal/normal/ below-normal; or increase/remain-same/decrease. Because of the difficulty of
interpreting all three per centages, the survey results
are normally converted into a single quantitative
number. One of the most common way of doing this
is to use ‘Net-Responses’ (also called ‘Balances’ or ‘Net
Balances’). It is defined as the per centage of the
respondents reporting a decrease (negative), subtracted
from the per centage reporting an increase (positive).
Net Responses can take values from –100 to +100. In
this survey, Net Response is used to analyse the
Consumer Confidence Survey results. To combine the
consumer confidence perceptions on various
parameters, two indices are worked out. These are
Current Situation Index for reflecting current situation
as compared to one year ago and Future ExpectationsIndex to reflect the expectations one year ahead. For
calculating the index, the following formula has been
used.
Overall Index = 100 + Average (Net Response of
selected factors)
Where Net Response = Positive perceptions (%) –
Negative perception (%)
The average net responses on the current perception
on various factors, viz. economic conditions,
household circumstances, income, spending, price
level and employment@ are used for the calculation
of the Current Situation Index.
The average net responses on the future perceptions
on various factors, viz. economic conditions,
household@@, income, spending, price level and
employment are used for the calculation of the Future
Expectations Index.
|