The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Twenty-one professional forecasters participated in the latest survey round (Round 45) conducted in March 20172. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and a snapshot is presented in the Annex.
1. Output
2. Inflation
3. Fiscal Deficit
4. Money and Banking
5. External Sector
6. Medium-term and Long-term Forecasts
Table A.1: Annual Forecasts for 2016-17 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2016-17 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 6.7 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.5 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 10.9 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.5 |
3 | Gross Saving (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) | 31.4 | 31.5 | 34.2 | 28.8 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 28.0 | 27.0 | 31.2 | 26.6 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 7.9 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 6.3 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 6.6 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 3.3 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
10 | CRR (end period) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 6.2 | 6.00 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 19.6 | 20.8 | 35.5 | 0.1 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 271.3 | 271.2 | 290.0 | 258.7 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 2.6 | 2.8 | 6.0 | -2.9 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 385.6 | 382.9 | 420.0 | 364.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in percent) | -1.7 | -2.0 | 5.0 | -6.5 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -5.1 | -5.0 | -4.3 | -6.0 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 99.1 | 98.2 | 110.0 | 89.0 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -17.9 | -17.9 | -3.0 | -58.9 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.5 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 35.4 | 35.5 | 52.2 | 14.0 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
Table A.2: Annual Forecasts for 2017-18 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2017-18 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 6.1 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 8.4 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 7.2 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 11.9 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 7.5 |
3 | Gross Saving (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) | 31.7 | 31.8 | 35.2 | 27.5 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 28.3 | 28.8 | 30.7 | 26.0 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 10.5 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 10.8 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 9.0 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.8 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | 6.09 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 5.75 |
10 | CRR (end period) | 4.09 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 6.7 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 6.2 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 31.0 | 32.2 | 52.7 | 10.3 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 288.8 | 290.2 | 320.0 | 267.0 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 5.7 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 2.3 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 415.7 | 412.8 | 440.0 | 397.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in per cent) | 6.0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | -6.5 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -5.2 | -5.3 | -4.5 | -5.9 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 102.0 | 100.6 | 116.3 | 90.0 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -25.5 | -30.0 | 25.3 | -58.9 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -2.0 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 56.8 | 57.0 | 75.0 | 41.3 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
Table A.3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q3:2016-17 to Q2:2017-18 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q4: 2016-17 | Q1: 2017-18 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 6.5 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 4.6 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 1.0 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 6.6 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 12.0 | 11.8 | 15.5 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 16.0 | 9.2 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 27.1 | 26.1 | 33.9 | 25.6 | 28.6 | 28.1 | 32.5 | 26.5 |
4 | ₹ per U.S. Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 67.21 | 67.68 | 68.70 | 64.00 |
5 | Repo Rate (end period) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 6.20 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 |
6 | CRR (end period) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
7 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 70.5 | 71.0 | 72.9 | 68.1 | 71.1 | 72.4 | 73.1 | 66.0 |
8 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 103.5 | 102.5 | 120.1 | 96.4 | 100.6 | 101.4 | 108.0 | 89.4 |
9 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | 54.1 | 54.5 | 55.6 | 51.9 | 54.0 | 55.0 | 57.0 | 49.3 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q2: 2017-18 | Q3: 2017-18 | Q4:2017-18 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GVA at basic prices (growth rate in per cent) | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 1.1 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 7.3 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 8.0 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 12.9 | 12.5 | 15.8 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 16.7 | 12.4 |
3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 27.7 | 27.1 | 30.5 | 25.7 | 27.6 | 26.9 | 31.9 | 25.6 | 32.1 | 26.9 | 69.5 | 24.7 |
4 | ₹ per U.S. Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | 67.29 | 67.10 | 69.70 | 64.50 | 67.65 | 67.38 | 70.20 | 66.00 | 62.01 | 67.77 | 70.00 | 6.25 |
5 | Repo Rate (end period) | 6.17 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.09 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 5.75 | 5.93 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 4.00 |
6 | CRR (end period) | 4.07 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.08 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.11 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
7 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 71.5 | 72.0 | 73.9 | 66.9 | 71.8 | 71.7 | 75.0 | 67.5 | 73.7 | 73.6 | 78.0 | 68.5 |
8 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 101.6 | 102.8 | 112.0 | 90.0 | 101.6 | 103.2 | 106.8 | 91.5 | 104.3 | 103.7 | 116.6 | 90.5 |
9 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | 55.9 | 57.0 | 62.0 | 49.4 | 56.9 | 55.0 | 64.0 | 50.4 | 58.8 | 57.8 | 67.0 | 53.0 |