Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the September 2019 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. The survey was conducted in 13 major cities viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and own income and spending are obtained from 5,192 households across these cities. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence weakened in September with both the current situation index (CSI)2 and the future expectations index (FEI) recording declines (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data II. Households’ sentiments on the general economic situation (Table 1) and the employment scenario (Table 2) declined further, and they were less optimistic on their income over the year ahead (Table 5) than in July 2019. III. Respondents perceived an increase in the price level over the last one year and a majority of them expect prices to rise further in the coming year (Tables 3 and 4); as a result, sentiments on overall spending as well as essential spending remain strong, though sentiments on discretionary spending weakened (Tables 6, 7 and 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.3 | -10.6 | 53.2 | 16.7 | 30.2 | 23.0 | | Nov-18 | 33.2 | 21.6 | 45.2 | -12.0 | 53.6 | 15.3 | 31.2 | 22.4 | | Dec-18 | 36.7 | 20.2 | 43.1 | -6.4 | 59.9 | 15.8 | 24.3 | 35.6 | | Mar-19 | 46.2 | 21.3 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 66.4 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 48.6 | | May-19 | 38.8 | 23.6 | 37.7 | 1.1 | 61.4 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 40.5 | | Jul-19 | 37.4 | 24.2 | 38.4 | -1.0 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 34.8 | | Sep-19 | 33.5 | 18.6 | 47.9 | -14.4 | 53.2 | 15.0 | 31.8 | 21.4 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 35.2 | 19.3 | 45.5 | -10.3 | 54.1 | 17.0 | 29.0 | 25.1 | | Nov-18 | 33.9 | 18.9 | 47.2 | -13.3 | 53.5 | 16.1 | 30.4 | 23.1 | | Dec-18 | 35.6 | 20.1 | 44.3 | -8.7 | 60.3 | 17.1 | 22.7 | 37.6 | | Mar-19 | 41.1 | 21.7 | 37.2 | 3.9 | 65.3 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 46.4 | | May-19 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.2 | -10.5 | 59.3 | 17.6 | 23.1 | 36.2 | | Jul-19 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 45.6 | -13.1 | 56.7 | 17.5 | 25.8 | 30.9 | | Sep-19 | 28.0 | 19.5 | 52.5 | -24.5 | 51.2 | 15.4 | 33.4 | 17.8 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 88.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | -85.1 | 80.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | -72.2 | | Nov-18 | 88.3 | 7.8 | 3.8 | -84.5 | 80.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | -72.0 | | Dec-18 | 84.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | -79.5 | 71.6 | 15.9 | 12.5 | -59.1 | | Mar-19 | 77.8 | 16.4 | 5.8 | -72.0 | 68.7 | 20.5 | 10.9 | -57.8 | | May-19 | 81.6 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -77.3 | 70.3 | 18.7 | 11.0 | -59.3 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | -78.4 | 73.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | -63.9 | | Sep-19 | 86.1 | 10.6 | 3.3 | -82.8 | 75.9 | 13.8 | 10.3 | -65.6 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 80.8 | 13.2 | 6.1 | -74.7 | 79.8 | 14.2 | 6.1 | -73.7 | | Nov-18 | 80.0 | 13.9 | 6.1 | -73.9 | 75.9 | 18.0 | 6.1 | -69.8 | | Dec-18 | 77.9 | 15.2 | 6.9 | -71.0 | 76.3 | 17.3 | 6.4 | -69.9 | | Mar-19 | 72.5 | 20.0 | 7.6 | -64.9 | 72.9 | 20.8 | 6.3 | -66.6 | | May-19 | 74.4 | 20.8 | 4.8 | -69.6 | 76.7 | 18.5 | 4.8 | -71.9 | | Jul-19 | 72.5 | 22.3 | 5.2 | -67.3 | 77.8 | 18.0 | 4.1 | -73.7 | | Sep-19 | 74.2 | 19.5 | 6.3 | -67.9 | 77.9 | 16.1 | 6.1 | -71.8 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 28.3 | 48.3 | 23.4 | 4.9 | 59.1 | 33.1 | 7.8 | 51.3 | | Nov-18 | 29.9 | 49.5 | 20.5 | 9.4 | 59.0 | 34.3 | 6.7 | 52.3 | | Dec-18 | 29.8 | 48.2 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 63.5 | 30.4 | 6.2 | 57.3 | | Mar-19 | 30.1 | 50.0 | 19.9 | 10.2 | 60.8 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 55.1 | | May-19 | 29.0 | 50.2 | 20.8 | 8.2 | 58.9 | 35.1 | 6.0 | 52.9 | | Jul-19 | 25.8 | 51.3 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 55.4 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 48.5 | | Sep-19 | 25.0 | 48.3 | 26.7 | -1.7 | 53.0 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 43.4 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 78.4 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 74.9 | 81.2 | 15.7 | 3.1 | 78.1 | | Nov-18 | 73.0 | 23.9 | 3.1 | 69.9 | 77.6 | 19.0 | 3.4 | 74.2 | | Dec-18 | 73.8 | 22.7 | 3.5 | 70.3 | 77.3 | 18.7 | 4.0 | 73.3 | | Mar-19 | 70.1 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 67.0 | 77.5 | 19.9 | 2.6 | 74.9 | | May-19 | 68.6 | 28.0 | 3.4 | 65.2 | 74.7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 71.8 | | Jul-19 | 71.7 | 25.0 | 3.4 | 68.3 | 76.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 73.6 | | Sep-19 | 74.1 | 22.0 | 3.8 | 70.3 | 77.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 73.0 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 83.6 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 80.2 | 84.2 | 13.1 | 2.7 | 81.5 | | Nov-18 | 83.4 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 80.2 | 84.1 | 12.5 | 3.3 | 80.8 | | Dec-18 | 82.4 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 79.3 | 83.5 | 13.0 | 3.4 | 80.1 | | Mar-19 | 78.6 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 75.4 | 83.4 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 81.1 | | May-19 | 80.0 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 77.1 | 80.7 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 77.9 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 80.1 | | Sep-19 | 83.8 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 81.2 | 83.0 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 79.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-18 | 44.0 | 34.3 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 49.2 | 33.3 | 17.5 | 31.7 | | Nov-18 | 39.1 | 37.6 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 44.5 | 35.9 | 19.6 | 24.9 | | Dec-18 | 38.4 | 37.5 | 24.1 | 14.3 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 20.9 | 25.2 | | Mar-19 | 36.3 | 43.3 | 20.4 | 15.9 | 46.1 | 37.6 | 16.3 | 29.8 | | May-19 | 32.7 | 40.3 | 27.0 | 5.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 | 23.3 | 16.1 | | Jul-19 | 31.0 | 44.9 | 24.1 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 21.6 | 14.6 | | Sep-19 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 34.7 | 39.2 | 26.0 | 8.7 |
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