Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the May 2020 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey was conducted through telephonic interviews during May 5-17, 2020 in thirteen major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending have been obtained from 5,300 households across these cities. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence collapsed in May 2020, with the current situation index (CSI) touching historic low and the one year ahead future expectations index (FEI)2 also recording a sharp fall, entering the zone of pessimism (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data II. Consumer perception on the general economic situation, employment scenario and household income plunged deeper into contraction zone (Tables 1, 2 and 5); while expectation on general economic situation and employment scenario for the year ahead were also pessimistic. III. Overall consumer spending remained afloat, mostly due to relative inelasticity in essential spending (Table 6 and 7); consumers, however, reported sharp cuts in discretionary spending and also do not expect much improvement in the coming year (Table 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | May-19 | 38.8 | 23.6 | 37.7 | 1.1 | 61.4 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 40.5 | | Jul-19 | 37.4 | 24.2 | 38.4 | -1.0 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 34.8 | | Sep-19 | 33.5 | 18.6 | 47.9 | -14.4 | 53.2 | 15.0 | 31.8 | 21.4 | | Nov-19 | 30.0 | 18.4 | 51.6 | -21.6 | 48.9 | 16.5 | 34.7 | 14.2 | | Jan-20 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 54.9 | -27.8 | 48.8 | 14.3 | 36.9 | 11.9 | | Mar-20 | 28.4 | 19.3 | 52.3 | -23.9 | 49.8 | 15.6 | 34.7 | 15.1 | | May-20 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 74.4 | -60.0 | 39.6 | 9.0 | 51.4 | -11.7 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | May-19 | 33.7 | 22.1 | 44.2 | -10.5 | 59.3 | 17.6 | 23.1 | 36.2 | | Jul-19 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 45.6 | -13.1 | 56.7 | 17.5 | 25.8 | 30.9 | | Sep-19 | 28.0 | 19.5 | 52.5 | -24.5 | 51.2 | 15.4 | 33.4 | 17.8 | | Nov-19 | 24.4 | 18.1 | 57.5 | -33.1 | 46.3 | 17.7 | 36.0 | 10.3 | | Jan-20 | 24.6 | 17.8 | 57.7 | -33.1 | 48.4 | 16.3 | 35.4 | 13.0 | | Mar-20 | 25.2 | 19.1 | 55.7 | -30.5 | 48.8 | 17.1 | 34.1 | 14.7 | | May-20 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 67.4 | -48.2 | 41.5 | 11.1 | 47.4 | -5.9 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 81.6 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -77.3 | 70.3 | 18.7 | 11.0 | -59.3 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | -78.4 | 73.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | -63.9 | | Sep-19 | 86.1 | 10.6 | 3.3 | -82.8 | 75.9 | 13.8 | 10.3 | -65.6 | | Nov-19 | 86.8 | 10.2 | 2.9 | -83.9 | 78.0 | 14.1 | 7.9 | -70.1 | | Jan-20 | 90.6 | 7.6 | 1.9 | -88.7 | 76.9 | 12.9 | 10.2 | -66.7 | | Mar-20 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.6 | -84.6 | 78.1 | 14.2 | 7.7 | -70.4 | | May-20 | 79.1 | 17.5 | 3.4 | -75.8 | 75.8 | 14.8 | 9.4 | -66.4 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 74.4 | 20.8 | 4.8 | -69.6 | 76.7 | 18.5 | 4.8 | -71.9 | | Jul-19 | 72.5 | 22.3 | 5.2 | -67.3 | 77.8 | 18.0 | 4.1 | -73.7 | | Sep-19 | 74.2 | 19.5 | 6.3 | -67.9 | 77.9 | 16.1 | 6.1 | -71.8 | | Nov-19 | 77.2 | 17.4 | 5.5 | -71.7 | 77.3 | 17.3 | 5.4 | -71.9 | | Jan-20 | 84.9 | 11.2 | 4.0 | -80.9 | 80.3 | 14.7 | 5.0 | -75.3 | | Mar-20 | 80.8 | 15.7 | 3.5 | -77.3 | 75.6 | 20.3 | 4.1 | -71.5 | | May-20 | 74.8 | 18.6 | 6.6 | -68.2 | 73.4 | 19.5 | 7.1 | -66.3 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 29.0 | 50.2 | 20.8 | 8.2 | 58.9 | 35.1 | 6.0 | 52.9 | | Jul-19 | 25.8 | 51.3 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 55.4 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 48.5 | | Sep-19 | 25.0 | 48.3 | 26.7 | -1.7 | 53.0 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 43.4 | | Nov-19 | 24.1 | 49.2 | 26.7 | -2.6 | 52.8 | 38.9 | 8.3 | 44.5 | | Jan-20 | 21.9 | 51.2 | 26.9 | -5.0 | 51.9 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 42.7 | | Mar-20 | 22.7 | 52.4 | 24.9 | -2.2 | 52.0 | 40.2 | 7.8 | 44.2 | | May-20 | 12.6 | 34.0 | 53.4 | -40.8 | 39.5 | 39.1 | 21.4 | 18.1 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 68.6 | 28.0 | 3.4 | 65.2 | 74.7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 71.8 | | Jul-19 | 71.7 | 25.0 | 3.4 | 68.3 | 76.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 73.6 | | Sep-19 | 74.1 | 22.0 | 3.8 | 70.3 | 77.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 73.0 | | Nov-19 | 73.2 | 23.4 | 3.4 | 69.8 | 77.4 | 19.0 | 3.6 | 73.8 | | Jan-20 | 76.3 | 20.5 | 3.2 | 73.1 | 78.7 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 74.7 | | Mar-20 | 72.6 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 69.2 | 75.8 | 20.7 | 3.5 | 72.3 | | May-20 | 56.1 | 31.0 | 12.9 | 43.2 | 64.3 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 55.6 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 80.0 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 77.1 | 80.7 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 77.9 | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 80.1 | | Sep-19 | 83.8 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 81.2 | 83.0 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 79.7 | | Nov-19 | 83.6 | 13.6 | 2.7 | 80.9 | 83.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 79.9 | | Jan-20 | 85.3 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 82.7 | 83.7 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 80.3 | | Mar-20 | 83.0 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 80.6 | 82.1 | 15.0 | 2.9 | 79.2 | | May-20 | 69.3 | 20.9 | 9.8 | 59.5 | 73.0 | 20.6 | 6.4 | 66.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | May-19 | 32.7 | 40.3 | 27.0 | 5.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 | 23.3 | 16.1 | | Jul-19 | 31.0 | 44.9 | 24.1 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 21.6 | 14.6 | | Sep-19 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 34.7 | 39.2 | 26.0 | 8.7 | | Nov-19 | 27.5 | 42.4 | 30.1 | -2.6 | 33.4 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 9.9 | | Jan-20 | 28.0 | 37.3 | 34.6 | -6.6 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 27.9 | 6.4 | | Mar-20 | 27.7 | 42.0 | 30.3 | -2.6 | 32.4 | 43.5 | 24.1 | 8.3 | | May-20 | 13.9 | 39.6 | 46.4 | -32.5 | 22.0 | 42.4 | 35.6 | -13.6 |
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