Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the July 2020 round of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey was conducted through telephonic interviews during July 1-12, 2020 in thirteen major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. Perceptions and expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending have been obtained from 5,342 households across these cities. Highlights: I. Consumer confidence plummeted in July 2020 with the current situation index (CSI) recording its all-time low; the future expectations index (FEI)2, however, charted back into the positive territory indicating signs of recovery for the year ahead (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data II. Consumer perception of the prevailing economic situation, employment scenario and own income was significantly lower than that in May 2020 (Tables 1, 2 and 5); respondents were, however, somewhat optimistic about these parameters for the coming year vis-a-vis the previous survey round. III. Most respondents reported reduction in discretionary spending though their overall spending increased during the last one year; they do not expect to increase non-essential spending in the coming year as well (Table 6, 7 and 8).
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 37.4 | 24.2 | 38.4 | -1.0 | 59.4 | 16.0 | 24.6 | 34.8 | | Sep-19 | 33.5 | 18.6 | 47.9 | -14.4 | 53.2 | 15.0 | 31.8 | 21.4 | | Nov-19 | 30.0 | 18.4 | 51.6 | -21.6 | 48.9 | 16.5 | 34.7 | 14.2 | | Jan-20 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 54.9 | -27.8 | 48.8 | 14.3 | 36.9 | 11.9 | | Mar-20 | 28.4 | 19.3 | 52.3 | -23.9 | 49.8 | 15.6 | 34.7 | 15.1 | | May-20 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 74.4 | -60.0 | 39.6 | 9.0 | 51.4 | -11.7 | | Jul-20 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 77.8 | -65.9 | 44.3 | 13.5 | 42.2 | 2.1 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 45.6 | -13.1 | 56.7 | 17.5 | 25.8 | 30.9 | | Sep-19 | 28.0 | 19.5 | 52.5 | -24.5 | 51.2 | 15.4 | 33.4 | 17.8 | | Nov-19 | 24.4 | 18.1 | 57.5 | -33.1 | 46.3 | 17.7 | 36.0 | 10.3 | | Jan-20 | 24.6 | 17.8 | 57.7 | -33.1 | 48.4 | 16.3 | 35.4 | 13.0 | | Mar-20 | 25.2 | 19.1 | 55.7 | -30.5 | 48.8 | 17.1 | 34.1 | 14.7 | | May-20 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 67.4 | -48.2 | 41.5 | 11.1 | 47.4 | -5.9 | | Jul-20 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 78.1 | -65.1 | 48.6 | 13.3 | 38.2 | 10.4 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 3.3 | -78.4 | 73.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | -63.9 | | Sep-19 | 86.1 | 10.6 | 3.3 | -82.8 | 75.9 | 13.8 | 10.3 | -65.6 | | Nov-19 | 86.8 | 10.2 | 2.9 | -83.9 | 78.0 | 14.1 | 7.9 | -70.1 | | Jan-20 | 90.6 | 7.6 | 1.9 | -88.7 | 76.9 | 12.9 | 10.2 | -66.7 | | Mar-20 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.6 | -84.6 | 78.1 | 14.2 | 7.7 | -70.4 | | May-20 | 79.1 | 17.5 | 3.4 | -75.8 | 75.8 | 14.8 | 9.4 | -66.4 | | Jul-20 | 79.7 | 16.7 | 3.6 | -76.2 | 71.6 | 18.3 | 10.1 | -61.5 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 72.5 | 22.3 | 5.2 | -67.3 | 77.8 | 18.0 | 4.1 | -73.7 | | Sep-19 | 74.2 | 19.5 | 6.3 | -67.9 | 77.9 | 16.1 | 6.1 | -71.8 | | Nov-19 | 77.2 | 17.4 | 5.5 | -71.7 | 77.3 | 17.3 | 5.4 | -71.9 | | Jan-20 | 84.9 | 11.2 | 4.0 | -80.9 | 80.3 | 14.7 | 5.0 | -75.3 | | Mar-20 | 80.8 | 15.7 | 3.5 | -77.3 | 75.6 | 20.3 | 4.1 | -71.5 | | May-20 | 74.8 | 18.6 | 6.6 | -68.2 | 73.4 | 19.5 | 7.1 | -66.3 | | Jul-20 | 79.8 | 15.6 | 4.5 | -75.3 | 76.4 | 18.6 | 5.0 | -71.4 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 25.8 | 51.3 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 55.4 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 48.5 | | Sep-19 | 25.0 | 48.3 | 26.7 | -1.7 | 53.0 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 43.4 | | Nov-19 | 24.1 | 49.2 | 26.7 | -2.6 | 52.8 | 38.9 | 8.3 | 44.5 | | Jan-20 | 21.9 | 51.2 | 26.9 | -5.0 | 51.9 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 42.7 | | Mar-20 | 22.7 | 52.4 | 24.9 | -2.2 | 52.0 | 40.2 | 7.8 | 44.2 | | May-20 | 12.6 | 34.0 | 53.4 | -40.8 | 39.5 | 39.1 | 21.4 | 18.1 | | Jul-20 | 8.3 | 28.9 | 62.8 | -54.5 | 43.5 | 39.3 | 17.2 | 26.3 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 71.7 | 25.0 | 3.4 | 68.3 | 76.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 73.6 | | Sep-19 | 74.1 | 22.0 | 3.8 | 70.3 | 77.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 73.0 | | Nov-19 | 73.2 | 23.4 | 3.4 | 69.8 | 77.4 | 19.0 | 3.6 | 73.8 | | Jan-20 | 76.3 | 20.5 | 3.2 | 73.1 | 78.7 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 74.7 | | Mar-20 | 72.6 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 69.2 | 75.8 | 20.7 | 3.5 | 72.3 | | May-20 | 56.1 | 31.0 | 12.9 | 43.2 | 64.3 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 55.6 | | Jul-20 | 48.1 | 34.7 | 17.2 | 30.8 | 60.2 | 29.2 | 10.6 | 49.6 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 81.7 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 79.1 | 82.9 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 80.1 | | Sep-19 | 83.8 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 81.2 | 83.0 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 79.7 | | Nov-19 | 83.6 | 13.6 | 2.7 | 80.9 | 83.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 79.9 | | Jan-20 | 85.3 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 82.7 | 83.7 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 80.3 | | Mar-20 | 83.0 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 80.6 | 82.1 | 15.0 | 2.9 | 79.2 | | May-20 | 69.3 | 20.9 | 9.8 | 59.5 | 73.0 | 20.6 | 6.4 | 66.7 | | Jul-20 | 64.0 | 23.9 | 12.1 | 51.9 | 69.4 | 22.9 | 7.7 | 61.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-19 | 31.0 | 44.9 | 24.1 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 21.6 | 14.6 | | Sep-19 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 34.7 | 39.2 | 26.0 | 8.7 | | Nov-19 | 27.5 | 42.4 | 30.1 | -2.6 | 33.4 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 9.9 | | Jan-20 | 28.0 | 37.3 | 34.6 | -6.6 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 27.9 | 6.4 | | Mar-20 | 27.7 | 42.0 | 30.3 | -2.6 | 32.4 | 43.5 | 24.1 | 8.3 | | May-20 | 13.9 | 39.6 | 46.4 | -32.5 | 22.0 | 42.4 | 35.6 | -13.6 | | Jul-20 | 9.2 | 29.4 | 61.4 | -52.2 | 22.2 | 37.9 | 39.9 | -17.7 |
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