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Date : Apr 07, 2021
Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey for Q4:2020-21

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 28th round of its quarterly Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey (SIOS). This forward-looking survey, being conducted since Q1:2014-15, captures qualitative assessment and expectations of Indian companies in the services and infrastructure sectors on a set of business parameters relating to demand conditions, price situation and other business conditions. 437 companies provided their assessment for Q4:2020-21 and expectations for Q1:2021-22 in the latest round of the survey, which was conducted during January-March 2021.1 Owing to uncertainty driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional block was included in this round of the survey for assessing the outlook on key parameters for two quarters ahead as well as three quarters ahead.

Highlights:

A. Services Sector

Assessment for Q4:2020-21

  • Services sector enterprises assessed some moderation in overall business situation and their turnover during Q4:2020-21 after strong recovery in Q3:2020-21 (Chart 1 and Table A).

  • Sentiments on part-time employment recovered; assessment for full-time employees remained in positive terrain for the second successive quarter.

  • Cost of inputs and salary outgo were perceived to exert pressure on expenditure with concomitant rise in selling prices.

Expectations for Q1:2021-22

  • Services sector companies expect further improvement in overall business situation and turnover in Q1:2021-22 (Chart 1).

  • Job landscape is expected to improve for both full-time and part-time employees.

  • Respondents expect cost pressures to amplify in Q1:2021-22 but improvement in pricing power is likely to bolster profit margin.

Expectations for Q2:2021-22 and Q3:2021-22

  • Gradual improvement is expected for overall business situation, turnover and employment over the next two quarters (Table C).

  • Enterprises expect input cost pressures to continue.

  • Input cost pressures are likely to aggravate and selling prices are expected to harden gradually.

Chart_1

B. Infrastructure Sector

Assessment for Q4:2020-21

  • Infrastructure companies gauged sharp uptick in the overall business situation (Chart 2 and Table B).

  • Major business parameters like turnover, availability of finance and selling price are assessed to improve in Q4:2020-21.

  • Input cost pressure is assessed to worsen and to contribute to the rise in selling prices.

Expectations for Q1:2021-22

  • Turnover of infrastructure companies is expected to improve further in Q1:2021-22 (Chart 2).

  • Respondents expected improvement in both full-time and part-time employment.

  • Considering higher input cost pressures, selling prices are expected to increase further in Q1:21-22.

Expectations for Q2:2021-22 and Q3:2021-22

  • Improvements in overall business situation and demand condition are expected to continue in Q2 and Q3 of 2021-22 (Table D).

  • Respondents expect employment conditions to improve.

  • Input cost pressure is also expected to intensify further and selling prices are expected to harden gradually.

Chart_2
Summary of Net Responses2 on Survey Parameters
Table A: Services Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:20-21 Q4:20-21 Q4:20-21 Q1:21-22
Overall Business Situation 30.9 20.9 44.5 50.1
Turnover 23.7 17.7 38.4 53.7
Full-time Employees 9.5 5.6 15.4 28.7
Part-time Employees -4.3 4.7 6.6 19.4
Availability of Finance 10.7 14.6 16.9 39.1
Cost of Finance -4.6 -3.9 -8.5 -22.3
Salary & Wages -12.0 -16.2 -20.3 -41.6
Cost of Inputs -28.0 -25.4 -29.2 -43.2
Selling Price -9.9 3.6 0.3 31.2
Profit Margin -11.1 -5.6 1.4 32.5
Inventories 6.0 3.6 12.3 21.1
Technical/Service Capacity 10.7 21.5 13.1 40.9
Physical Investment 5.7 12.4 8.7 31.1

Table B: Infrastructure Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q3:20-21 Q4:20-21 Q4:20-21 Q1:21-22
Overall Business Situation 16.2 20.5 37.7 64.3
Turnover 3.5 27.9 31.9 56.5
Full-time Employees -14.2 -7.1 2.9 24.1
Part-time Employees -5.8 4.2 3.0 14.7
Availability of Finance -0.7 7.1 10.1 25.0
Cost of Finance -13.8 -16.7 -17.4 -30.5
Salary & Wages -8.6 -10.7 -16.7 -39.2
Cost of Inputs -33.1 -44.7 -40.7 -44.4
Selling Price -7.1 4.2 3.2 18.8
Profit Margin -23.4 -11.1 -3.6 22.8
Inventories 0.8 18.4 6.9 26.8
Technical/Service Capacity 1.7 11.1 5.0 21.4
Physical Investment 0.9 7.9 7.0 24.2

Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response (in per cent)
Table C: Services Sector
Parameter Round 27 Round 28
Q4:2020-21 Q1:2021-22 Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22
Overall Business Situation 44.5 50.1 53 68.4
Turnover 38.4 53.7 54.8 68.0
Full-time Employees 15.4 28.7 32.8 38.5
Part-time Employees 6.6 19.4 23.6 31.9
Cost of Inputs -29.2 -43.2 -42.5 -52.2
Selling Price 0.3 31.2 34.7 44.4

Table D: Infrastructure Sector
Parameter Round 27 Round 28
Q4:2020-21 Q1:2021-22 Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22
Overall Business Situation 37.7 64.3 54.8 69.9
Turnover 31.9 56.5 55.0 70.9
Full-time Employees 2.9 24.1 22.7 32.0
Part-time Employees 3.0 14.7 27.9 36.8
Cost of Inputs -40.7 -44.4 -49.3 -55.7
Selling Price 3.2 18.8 23.9 35.8

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data

Services Sector

Table S1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:19-20 33.0 52.6 14.3 18.7 45.2 45.2 9.6 35.5
Q1:20-21 7.4 31.3 61.3 -53.9 43.8 45.8 10.4 33.4
Q2:20-21 26.4 42.4 31.1 -4.7 29.0 43.9 27.1 1.9
Q3:20-21 43.2 44.5 12.3 30.9 40.3 46.3 13.4 27.0
Q4:20-21 39.2 42.4 18.3 20.9 50.4 43.7 5.9 44.5
Q1:21-22         59.3 31.5 9.2 50.1
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table S2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 41.6 38.8 19.7 21.9 48.1 40.9 11.0 37.1
Q1:20-21 9.0 23.9 67.1 -58.1 46.6 39.1 14.3 32.2
Q2:20-21 28.0 33.2 38.7 -10.7 30.4 33.9 35.8 -5.4
Q3:20-21 43.7 36.3 20.0 23.7 40.5 40.2 19.3 21.2
Q4:20-21 38.1 41.6 20.3 17.7 48.6 41.1 10.3 38.4
Q1:21-22         62.3 29.1 8.6 53.7
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 30.3 56.9 12.8 17.5 27.4 63.5 9.1 18.3
Q1:20-21 11.6 63.5 24.8 -13.2 28.3 62.8 8.9 19.4
Q2:20-21 15.2 60.9 24.0 -8.8 13.4 68.7 17.9 -4.6
Q3:20-21 24.9 59.8 15.3 9.5 17.0 70.0 13.0 4.0
Q4:20-21 19.6 66.3 14.1 5.6 22.9 69.5 7.5 15.4
Q1:21-22         35.2 58.2 6.6 28.7
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 12.1 75.6 12.4 -0.3 14.7 72.3 13.1 1.6
Q1:20-21 4.5 62.9 32.6 -28.1 15.4 74.1 10.6 4.8
Q2:20-21 8.3 68.1 23.6 -15.4 8.5 70.4 21.2 -12.7
Q3:20-21 10.0 75.7 14.3 -4.3 9.5 77.2 13.3 -3.8
Q4:20-21 16.3 72.1 11.6 4.7 15.0 76.7 8.3 6.6
Q1:21-22         26.6 66.3 7.1 19.4
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:19-20 21.5 66.8 11.7 9.8 22.9 68.0 9.1 13.9
Q1:20-21 9.7 66.3 23.9 -14.2 24.0 65.9 10.1 13.9
Q2:20-21 15.4 68.0 16.6 -1.1 15.9 66.6 17.5 -1.7
Q3:20-21 21.3 68.0 10.7 10.7 17.7 69.9 12.4 5.3
Q4:20-21 31.0 52.7 16.4 14.6 25.5 65.9 8.6 16.9
Q1:21-22         47.6 43.9 8.5 39.1
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 14.9 75.7 9.5 -5.4 15.3 75.7 9.0 -6.3
Q1:20-21 21.4 62.9 15.7 -5.7 13.4 76.6 10.0 -3.4
Q2:20-21 15.1 69.7 15.1 0.0 18.1 68.9 13.0 -5.1
Q3:20-21 16.8 70.9 12.3 -4.6 13.5 75.1 11.4 -2.2
Q4:20-21 19.0 65.9 15.1 -3.9 17.0 74.6 8.5 -8.5
Q1:21-22         34.1 54.2 11.8 -22.3
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 33.6 61.9 4.4 -29.2 31.2 66.8 2.1 -29.1
Q1:20-21 13.2 61.2 25.6 12.3 39.2 57.8 3.0 -36.2
Q2:20-21 16.9 66.4 16.7 -0.3 15.8 66.2 18.0 2.3
Q3:20-21 23.7 64.5 11.7 -12.0 19.0 71.6 9.5 -9.5
Q4:20-21 24.5 67.3 8.3 -16.2 26.4 67.6 6.0 -20.3
Q1:21-22         45.2 51.2 3.6 -41.6
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 36.2 56.9 6.9 -29.3 31.7 63.9 4.5 -27.2
Q1:20-21 24.5 58.8 16.7 -7.8 32.6 62.7 4.7 -28.0
Q2:20-21 34.6 56.9 8.4 -26.2 25.8 63.6 10.6 -15.2
Q3:20-21 33.2 61.5 5.2 -28.0 30.6 63.1 6.4 -24.2
Q4:20-21 31.4 62.5 6.0 -25.4 34.0 61.1 4.8 -29.2
Q1:21-22         46.0 51.1 2.9 -43.2
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 11.1 77.8 11.1 0.0 11.7 79.2 9.0 2.7
Q1:20-21 3.0 71.2 25.8 -22.9 12.5 76.0 11.4 1.1
Q2:20-21 6.1 75.1 18.8 -12.6 6.1 75.4 18.6 -12.5
Q3:20-21 7.0 76.0 16.9 -9.9 7.8 79.1 13.2 -5.4
Q4:20-21 20.4 62.9 16.7 3.6 11.3 77.7 11.0 0.3
Q1:21-22         37.5 56.1 6.3 31.2
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 19.4 56.0 24.6 -5.2 26.4 57.0 16.6 9.8
Q1:20-21 3.5 37.7 58.7 -55.2 23.0 59.7 17.3 5.7
Q2:20-21 12.4 45.8 41.9 -29.5 13.4 48.5 38.1 -24.8
Q3:20-21 19.0 50.8 30.2 -11.1 20.5 52.7 26.8 -6.3
Q4:20-21 20.7 53.1 26.2 -5.6 21.6 58.3 20.2 1.4
Q1:21-22         44.5 43.5 12.0 32.5
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 16.7 72.2 11.0 5.7 13.8 78.2 8.0 5.7
Q1:20-21 13.5 63.5 23.0 -9.6 16.9 73.9 9.2 7.7
Q2:20-21 14.4 65.3 20.3 -5.9 14.5 68.8 16.7 -2.2
Q3:20-21 17.9 70.2 11.9 6.0 15.9 69.6 14.6 1.3
Q4:20-21 15.0 73.7 11.3 3.6 20.6 71.2 8.3 12.3
Q1:21-22         29.6 61.9 8.5 21.1
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 16.8 81.0 2.2 14.6 18.6 80.1 1.3 17.3
Q1:20-21 9.2 79.2 11.5 -2.3 16.8 81.3 2.0 14.8
Q2:20-21 12.5 80.6 6.9 5.6 13.9 78.6 7.5 6.3
Q3:20-21 14.6 81.5 3.9 10.7 14.8 80.1 5.2 9.6
Q4:20-21 25.5 70.5 4.0 21.5 16.8 79.4 3.8 13.1
Q1:21-22         42.5 55.9 1.6 40.9
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 18.5 77.4 4.2 14.3 18.0 80.1 1.9 16.1
Q1:20-21 11.7 72.8 15.6 -3.9 15.4 79.5 5.1 10.2
Q2:20-21 8.0 82.7 9.3 -1.4 13.9 75.3 10.8 3.2
Q3:20-21 13.2 79.4 7.4 5.7 8.5 84.0 7.5 1.1
Q4:20-21 18.0 76.4 5.6 12.4 14.0 80.8 5.2 8.7
Q1:21-22         34.7 61.8 3.6 31.1
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Infrastructure Sector

Table I1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q4:19-20 34.6 47.7 17.7 16.9 49.7 39.9 10.5 39.2
Q1:20-21 13.3 28.6 58.1 -44.8 50.8 40.0 9.2 41.5
Q2:20-21 25.2 38.6 36.2 -11.0 29.5 46.7 23.8 5.7
Q3:20-21 35.2 45.8 19.0 16.2 34.4 46.1 19.5 14.8
Q4:20-21 42.0 36.4 21.6 20.5 47.1 43.5 9.4 37.7
Q1:21-22         70.2 23.8 6.0 64.3
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table I2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 34.4 45.3 20.3 14.1 45.5 42.2 12.3 33.1
Q1:20-21 9.7 29.1 61.2 -51.5 42.2 47.7 10.2 32.0
Q2:20-21 23.4 35.9 40.6 -17.2 24.5 45.1 30.4 -5.9
Q3:20-21 29.8 44.0 26.2 3.5 38.1 41.3 20.6 17.5
Q4:20-21 47.7 32.6 19.8 27.9 41.8 48.2 9.9 31.9
Q1:21-22         61.2 34.1 4.7 56.5
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 16.2 68.5 15.4 0.8 16.4 73.7 9.9 6.6
Q1:20-21 4.8 68.3 26.9 -22.1 20.5 70.1 9.4 11.0
Q2:20-21 3.9 66.1 29.9 -26.0 7.7 70.2 22.1 -14.4
Q3:20-21 7.1 71.6 21.3 -14.2 8.8 74.4 16.8 -8.0
Q4:20-21 11.9 69.0 19.0 -7.1 14.3 74.3 11.4 2.9
Q1:21-22         31.3 61.4 7.2 24.1
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 5.5 85.0 9.4 -3.9 10.7 80.5 8.7 2.0
Q1:20-21 3.9 63.1 33.0 -29.1 10.2 81.3 8.6 1.6
Q2:20-21 5.6 69.6 24.8 -19.2 9.8 71.6 18.6 -8.8
Q3:20-21 8.7 76.8 14.5 -5.8 10.6 76.4 13.0 -2.4
Q4:20-21 15.3 73.6 11.1 4.2 12.6 77.8 9.6 3.0
Q1:21-22         23.5 67.6 8.8 14.7
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q4:19-20 14.5 69.4 16.1 -1.6 22.4 68.4 9.2 13.2
Q1:20-21 7.0 64.0 29.0 -22.0 25.2 64.2 10.6 14.6
Q2:20-21 14.4 60.8 24.8 -10.4 14.7 66.7 18.6 -3.9
Q3:20-21 18.6 62.1 19.3 -0.7 21.8 58.1 20.2 1.6
Q4:20-21 24.7 57.6 17.6 7.1 23.0 64.0 12.9 10.1
Q1:21-22         35.7 53.6 10.7 25.0
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 27.4 63.7 8.9 -18.5 24.3 66.2 9.5 -14.9
Q1:20-21 29.1 56.3 14.6 -14.6 23.2 66.4 10.4 -12.8
Q2:20-21 24.4 63.4 12.2 -12.2 28.7 59.4 11.9 -16.8
Q3:20-21 20.3 73.2 6.5 -13.8 27.6 65.9 6.5 -21.1
Q4:20-21 25.0 66.7 8.3 -16.7 24.6 68.1 7.2 -17.4
Q1:21-22         31.7 67.1 1.2 -30.5
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 25.0 67.2 7.8 -17.2 28.3 67.8 3.9 -24.3
Q1:20-21 18.6 59.8 21.6 2.9 37.5 61.7 0.8 -36.7
Q2:20-21 12.0 64.8 23.2 11.2 21.8 60.4 17.8 -4.0
Q3:20-21 19.3 70.0 10.7 -8.6 23.4 71.0 5.6 -17.7
Q4:20-21 19.0 72.6 8.3 -10.7 22.5 71.7 5.8 -16.7
Q1:21-22         45.6 48.1 6.3 -39.2
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 39.3 55.7 4.9 -34.4 37.1 58.7 4.2 -32.9
Q1:20-21 31.6 58.2 10.2 -21.4 36.1 58.8 5.0 -31.1
Q2:20-21 36.1 59.7 4.2 -31.9 31.6 62.2 6.1 -25.5
Q3:20-21 38.2 56.6 5.1 -33.1 44.4 53.8 1.7 -42.7
Q4:20-21 46.1 52.6 1.3 -44.7 42.2 56.3 1.5 -40.7
Q1:21-22         47.2 50.0 2.8 -44.4
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 8.0 74.3 17.7 -9.7 12.5 78.9 8.6 3.9
Q1:20-21 7.4 66.0 26.6 -19.1 10.8 74.8 14.4 -3.6
Q2:20-21 8.9 63.4 27.7 -18.8 7.5 68.8 23.7 -16.1
Q3:20-21 8.7 75.4 15.9 -7.1 10.9 68.2 20.9 -10.0
Q4:20-21 23.9 56.3 19.7 4.2 15.2 72.8 12.0 3.2
Q1:21-22         33.3 52.2 14.5 18.8
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 11.6 56.2 32.2 -20.7 17.4 59.0 23.6 -6.3
Q1:20-21 2.9 33.0 64.1 -61.2 18.6 58.5 22.9 -4.2
Q2:20-21 7.3 43.5 49.2 -41.9 11.9 44.6 43.6 -31.7
Q3:20-21 11.3 53.9 34.8 -23.4 17.4 47.9 34.7 -17.4
Q4:20-21 18.5 51.9 29.6 -11.1 21.0 54.3 24.6 -3.6
Q1:21-22         39.2 44.3 16.5 22.8
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 15.8 71.7 12.5 3.3 17.5 72.0 10.5 7.0
Q1:20-21 17.0 68.0 15.0 2.0 16.9 73.7 9.3 7.6
Q2:20-21 12.4 75.2 12.4 0.0 14.3 72.4 13.3 1.0
Q3:20-21 12.9 75.0 12.1 0.8 18.0 69.7 12.3 5.7
Q4:20-21 28.9 60.5 10.5 18.4 16.8 73.3 9.9 6.9
Q1:21-22         33.8 59.2 7.0 26.8
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 14.0 82.2 3.7 10.3 16.7 80.2 3.2 13.5
Q1:20-21 4.4 79.1 16.5 -12.1 14.7 82.6 2.8 11.9
Q2:20-21 5.6 85.2 9.3 -3.7 8.8 80.2 11.0 -2.2
Q3:20-21 9.2 83.3 7.5 1.7 9.5 82.9 7.6 1.9
Q4:20-21 20.6 69.8 9.5 11.1 10.0 85.0 5.0 5.0
Q1:21-22         28.6 64.3 7.1 21.4
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q4:19-20 16.8 79.4 3.7 13.1 21.1 74.0 4.9 16.3
Q1:20-21 6.7 71.9 21.3 -14.6 20.2 76.9 2.9 17.3
Q2:20-21 10.7 75.7 13.6 -2.9 9.1 72.7 18.2 -9.1
Q3:20-21 9.4 82.1 8.5 0.9 17.6 72.5 9.8 7.8
Q4:20-21 14.3 79.4 6.3 7.9 14.8 77.4 7.8 7.0
Q1:21-22         29.0 66.1 4.8 24.2
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

1 The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 5, 2021. This round of the survey was launched on January 22, 2021 and results were compiled with data received till March 25, 2021.

2 Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Positive value indicates expansion/optimism and negative value indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/ equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100). For example, increase in turnover is optimism whereas decrease in cost of inputs is optimism.


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