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Date : Aug 06, 2021
Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey for Q1:2021-22

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 29th round of its quarterly services and infrastructure outlook survey (SIOS). This forward-looking survey, being conducted since Q1:2014-15, captures qualitative assessment and expectations of Indian companies in the services and infrastructure sectors on a set of business parameters relating to demand conditions, price situation and other business conditions. 836 companies provided their assessment for Q1:2021-22 and expectations for Q2:2021-22 in the latest round of the survey, which was conducted during April-June 2021.1 Owing to uncertainty driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional block was included in this round of the survey for assessing the outlook on key parameters for two quarters ahead as well as three quarters ahead.

Highlights:

A. Services Sector

Assessment for Q1:2021-22

  • Services sector enterprises assessed significant deterioration in the overall business situation as well as in their turnover during Q1:2021-22 due to the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions (Chart 1 and Table A).

  • Respondent’s assessment on full-time employees turned negative during the quarter.

  • Services companies reported continued input cost pressures and some increase in selling prices during Q1:2021-22.

  • The sentiments on profit margins deteriorated further.

Expectations for Q2:2021-22

  • Service sector companies are optimistic about the overall business situation as well as turnover in Q2:2021-22 (Chart 1).

  • Both full-time and part-time employment are expected to expand in the next quarter.

  • Respondents expect input costs pressures and cost of finance to increase and selling prices to harden further in Q2:2021-22.

  • Profit margins are envisaged to improve.

Expectations for Q3:2021-22 and Q4:2021-22

  • Gradual improvement is expected for overall business situation, turnover and employment over the next two quarters (Table C).

  • Enterprises expect input cost pressures to continue.

  • Selling prices are anticipated to rise and remain elevated through Q4:2021-22.
Chart_1

B. Infrastructure Sector

Assessment for Q1:2021-22

  • Infrastructure companies gauged sharp downtick in the overall business situation as well as turnover (Chart 2 and Table B).

  • Respondents assessed deterioration in both full-time and part-time employment conditions, resulting in lower salary outgo.

  • Infrastructure companies perceived continued pressure from input costs but easier cost of finance during Q1:2021-22.

Expectations for Q2:2021-22

  • The realized assessment for Q1:2021-22 in the latest round was much lower than original expectations for the same quarter collected in the previous round, largely due to the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic; demand conditions are expected to improve in Q2:2021-22 (Chart 2 and Table B).

  • Respondents expect improvement in both full-time and part-time employment.

  • Anticipating higher input cost pressures, selling prices are expected to increase further in Q2:2021-22.

Expectations for Q3:2021-22 and Q4:2021-22

  • Overall business situation and demand conditions are expected to gradually improve during Q3 and Q4 of 2021-22 (Table D).

  • Input cost pressure is expected to increase further and selling prices are expected to rise.

Chart_2

Summary of Net Responses2 on Survey Parameters
Table A: Services Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q4:20-21 Q1:21-22 Q1:21-22 Q2:21-22
Overall Business Situation 20.9 -15.9 50.1 45.0
Turnover 17.7 -19.2 53.7 40.1
Full-time Employees 5.6 -6.6 28.7 30.5
Part-time Employees 4.7 4.3 19.4 39.1
Availability of Finance 14.6 -11.0 39.1 35.5
Cost of Finance -3.9 -3.0 -22.3 -37.2
Salary & Wages -16.2 -5.0 -41.6 -32.0
Cost of Inputs -25.4 -27.0 -43.2 -45.2
Selling Price 3.6 11.1 31.2 37.2
Profit Margin -5.6 -20.0 32.5 28.9
Inventories 3.6 2.1 21.1 32.0
Technical/Service Capacity 21.5 13.7 40.9 42.7
Physical Investment 12.4 9.3 31.1 41.5

Table B: Infrastructure Sector
(per cent)
Parameters Assessment period Expectations period
Q4:20-21 Q1:21-22 Q1:21-22 Q2:21-22
Overall Business Situation 20.5 -27.0 64.3 50.5
Turnover 27.9 -30.6 56.5 43.9
Full-time Employees -7.1 -16.8 24.1 32.1
Part-time Employees 4.2 -3.3 14.7 49.2
Availability of Finance 7.1 -22.1 25.0 38.3
Cost of Finance -16.7 5.1 -30.5 -41.0
Salary & Wages -10.7 3.2 -39.2 -37.8
Cost of Inputs -44.7 -37.3 -44.4 -62.4
Selling Price 4.2 0.9 18.8 50.5
Profit Margin -11.1 -30.8 22.8 34.7
Inventories 18.4 0.9 26.8 42.4
Technical/Service Capacity 11.1 6.0 21.4 69.6
Physical Investment 7.9 10.8 24.2 68.8

Expectations of Select Parameters for extended period – Net response (in per cent)
Table C: Services Sector
Parameter Round 28 Round 29
Q1:2021-22 Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22 Q4:2021-22
Overall Business Situation 50.1 45.0 53.9 59.4
Turnover 53.7 40.1 53.6 56.7
Full-time Employees 28.7 30.5 45.0 44.5
Part-time Employees 19.4 39.1 51.6 52.7
Cost of Inputs -43.2 -45.2 -49.6 -51.3
Selling Price 31.2 37.2 47.4 45.7

Table D: Infrastructure Sector
Parameter Round 28 Round 29
Q1:2021-22 Q2:2021-22 Q3:2021-22 Q4:2021-22
Overall Business Situation 64.3 50.5 55.4 62.9
Turnover 56.5 43.9 57.5 61.3
Full-time Employees 24.1 32.1 48.1 48.1
Part-time Employees 14.7 49.2 70.7 69.5
Cost of Inputs -44.4 -62.4 -69.5 -69.1
Selling Price 18.8 50.5 58.0 57.0

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.

Services Sector

Table S1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q1:20-21 7.4 31.3 61.3 -53.9 43.8 45.8 10.4 33.4
Q2:20-21 26.4 42.4 31.1 -4.7 29.0 43.9 27.1 1.9
Q3:20-21 43.2 44.5 12.3 30.9 40.3 46.3 13.4 27.0
Q4:20-21 39.2 42.4 18.3 20.9 50.4 43.7 5.9 44.5
Q1:21-22 22.8 38.5 38.7 -15.9 59.3 31.5 9.2 50.1
Q2:21-22         51.9 41.1 6.9 45.0
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table S2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 9.0 23.9 67.1 -58.1 46.6 39.1 14.3 32.2
Q2:20-21 28.0 33.2 38.7 -10.7 30.4 33.9 35.8 -5.4
Q3:20-21 43.7 36.3 20.0 23.7 40.5 40.2 19.3 21.2
Q4:20-21 38.1 41.6 20.3 17.7 48.6 41.1 10.3 38.4
Q1:21-22 20.5 39.7 39.7 -19.2 62.3 29.1 8.6 53.7
Q2:21-22         49.0 42.2 8.8 40.1
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 11.6 63.5 24.8 -13.2 28.3 62.8 8.9 19.4
Q2:20-21 15.2 60.9 24.0 -8.8 13.4 68.7 17.9 -4.6
Q3:20-21 24.9 59.8 15.3 9.5 17.0 70.0 13.0 4.0
Q4:20-21 19.6 66.3 14.1 5.6 22.9 69.5 7.5 15.4
Q1:21-22 14.4 64.6 21.0 -6.6 35.2 58.2 6.6 28.7
Q2:21-22         34.4 61.7 3.9 30.5
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 4.5 62.9 32.6 -28.1 15.4 74.1 10.6 4.8
Q2:20-21 8.3 68.1 23.6 -15.4 8.5 70.4 21.2 -12.7
Q3:20-21 10.0 75.7 14.3 -4.3 9.5 77.2 13.3 -3.8
Q4:20-21 16.3 72.1 11.6 4.7 15.0 76.7 8.3 6.6
Q1:21-22 16.8 70.8 12.4 4.3 26.6 66.3 7.1 19.4
Q2:21-22         43.2 52.7 4.1 39.1
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q1:20-21 9.7 66.3 23.9 -14.2 24.0 65.9 10.1 13.9
Q2:20-21 15.4 68.0 16.6 -1.1 15.9 66.6 17.5 -1.7
Q3:20-21 21.3 68.0 10.7 10.7 17.7 69.9 12.4 5.3
Q4:20-21 31.0 52.7 16.4 14.6 25.5 65.9 8.6 16.9
Q1:21-22 14.2 60.6 25.2 -11.0 47.6 43.9 8.5 39.1
Q2:21-22         40.5 54.4 5.1 35.5
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 21.4 62.9 15.7 -5.7 13.4 76.6 10.0 -3.4
Q2:20-21 15.1 69.7 15.1 0.0 18.1 68.9 13.0 -5.1
Q3:20-21 16.8 70.9 12.3 -4.6 13.5 75.1 11.4 -2.2
Q4:20-21 19.0 65.9 15.1 -3.9 17.0 74.6 8.5 -8.5
Q1:21-22 18.6 65.9 15.5 -3.0 34.1 54.2 11.8 -22.3
Q2:21-22         41.2 54.7 4.1 -37.2
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 13.2 61.2 25.6 12.3 39.2 57.8 3.0 -36.2
Q2:20-21 16.9 66.4 16.7 -0.3 15.8 66.2 18.0 2.3
Q3:20-21 23.7 64.5 11.7 -12.0 19.0 71.6 9.5 -9.5
Q4:20-21 24.5 67.3 8.3 -16.2 26.4 67.6 6.0 -20.3
Q1:21-22 16.4 72.1 11.4 -5.0 45.2 51.2 3.6 -41.6
Q2:21-22         34.8 62.5 2.8 -32.0
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 24.5 58.8 16.7 -7.8 32.6 62.7 4.7 -28.0
Q2:20-21 34.6 56.9 8.4 -26.2 25.8 63.6 10.6 -15.2
Q3:20-21 33.2 61.5 5.2 -28.0 30.6 63.1 6.4 -24.2
Q4:20-21 31.4 62.5 6.0 -25.4 34.0 61.1 4.8 -29.2
Q1:21-22 34.6 57.8 7.6 -27.0 46.0 51.1 2.9 -43.2
Q2:21-22         47.5 50.2 2.3 -45.2
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 3.0 71.2 25.8 -22.9 12.5 76.0 11.4 1.1
Q2:20-21 6.1 75.1 18.8 -12.6 6.1 75.4 18.6 -12.5
Q3:20-21 7.0 76.0 16.9 -9.9 7.8 79.1 13.2 -5.4
Q4:20-21 20.4 62.9 16.7 3.6 11.3 77.7 11.0 0.3
Q1:21-22 19.1 73.0 7.9 11.1 37.5 56.1 6.3 31.2
Q2:21-22         39.2 58.9 1.9 37.2
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 3.5 37.7 58.7 -55.2 23.0 59.7 17.3 5.7
Q2:20-21 12.4 45.8 41.9 -29.5 13.4 48.5 38.1 -24.8
Q3:20-21 19.0 50.8 30.2 -11.1 20.5 52.7 26.8 -6.3
Q4:20-21 20.7 53.1 26.2 -5.6 21.6 58.3 20.2 1.4
Q1:21-22 13.5 53.0 33.5 -20.0 44.5 43.5 12.0 32.5
Q2:21-22         38.6 51.7 9.7 28.9
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 13.5 63.5 23.0 -9.6 16.9 73.9 9.2 7.7
Q2:20-21 14.4 65.3 20.3 -5.9 14.5 68.8 16.7 -2.2
Q3:20-21 17.9 70.2 11.9 6.0 15.9 69.6 14.6 1.3
Q4:20-21 15.0 73.7 11.3 3.6 20.6 71.2 8.3 12.3
Q1:21-22 14.4 73.3 12.3 2.1 29.6 61.9 8.5 21.1
Q2:21-22         36.0 60.1 3.9 32.0
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 9.2 79.2 11.5 -2.3 16.8 81.3 2.0 14.8
Q2:20-21 12.5 80.6 6.9 5.6 13.9 78.6 7.5 6.3
Q3:20-21 14.6 81.5 3.9 10.7 14.8 80.1 5.2 9.6
Q4:20-21 25.5 70.5 4.0 21.5 16.8 79.4 3.8 13.1
Q1:21-22 18.6 76.4 4.9 13.7 42.5 55.9 1.6 40.9
Q2:21-22         44.4 54.0 1.7 42.7
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table S13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 11.7 72.8 15.6 -3.9 15.4 79.5 5.1 10.2
Q2:20-21 8.0 82.7 9.3 -1.4 13.9 75.3 10.8 3.2
Q3:20-21 13.2 79.4 7.4 5.7 8.5 84.0 7.5 1.1
Q4:20-21 18.0 76.4 5.6 12.4 14.0 80.8 5.2 8.7
Q1:21-22 14.6 80.2 5.3 9.3 34.7 61.8 3.6 31.1
Q2:21-22         42.8 55.9 1.3 41.5
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Infrastructure Sector

Table I1: Assessment and Expectation for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses)@
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Better No Change Worse Net response# Better No Change Worse Net response
Q1:20-21 13.3 28.6 58.1 -44.8 50.8 40.0 9.2 41.5
Q2:20-21 25.2 38.6 36.2 -11.0 29.5 46.7 23.8 5.7
Q3:20-21 35.2 45.8 19.0 16.2 34.4 46.1 19.5 14.8
Q4:20-21 42.0 36.4 21.6 20.5 47.1 43.5 9.4 37.7
Q1:21-22 16.7 39.5 43.8 -27.0 70.2 23.8 6.0 64.3
Q2:21-22         56.6 37.4 6.0 50.5
‘Increase’ in Overall business situation is optimistic.
@: Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100.
#: Net Response (NR) is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting optimism and that reporting pessimism. The range is -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/ pessimism.

Table I2: Assessment and Expectation for Turnover
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 9.7 29.1 61.2 -51.5 42.2 47.7 10.2 32.0
Q2:20-21 23.4 35.9 40.6 -17.2 24.5 45.1 30.4 -5.9
Q3:20-21 29.8 44.0 26.2 3.5 38.1 41.3 20.6 17.5
Q4:20-21 47.7 32.6 19.8 27.9 41.8 48.2 9.9 31.9
Q1:21-22 13.9 41.6 44.5 -30.6 61.2 34.1 4.7 56.5
Q2:21-22         51.1 41.8 7.1 43.9
‘Increase’ in Turnover is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I3: Assessment and Expectation for Full-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 4.8 68.3 26.9 -22.1 20.5 70.1 9.4 11.0
Q2:20-21 3.9 66.1 29.9 -26.0 7.7 70.2 22.1 -14.4
Q3:20-21 7.1 71.6 21.3 -14.2 8.8 74.4 16.8 -8.0
Q4:20-21 11.9 69.0 19.0 -7.1 14.3 74.3 11.4 2.9
Q1:21-22 9.3 64.6 26.1 -16.8 31.3 61.4 7.2 24.1
Q2:21-22         36.1 59.9 4.0 32.1
‘Increase’ in Full-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I4: Assessment and Expectation for Part-time Employees
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 3.9 63.1 33.0 -29.1 10.2 81.3 8.6 1.6
Q2:20-21 5.6 69.6 24.8 -19.2 9.8 71.6 18.6 -8.8
Q3:20-21 8.7 76.8 14.5 -5.8 10.6 76.4 13.0 -2.4
Q4:20-21 15.3 73.6 11.1 4.2 12.6 77.8 9.6 3.0
Q1:21-22 11.0 74.7 14.3 -3.3 23.5 67.6 8.8 14.7
Q2:21-22         52.5 44.2 3.3 49.2
‘Increase’ in Part-time Employees is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I5: Assessment and Expectation for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Improve No Change Worsen Net response Improve No Change Worsen Net response
Q1:20-21 7.0 64.0 29.0 -22.0 25.2 64.2 10.6 14.6
Q2:20-21 14.4 60.8 24.8 -10.4 14.7 66.7 18.6 -3.9
Q3:20-21 18.6 62.1 19.3 -0.7 21.8 58.1 20.2 1.6
Q4:20-21 24.7 57.6 17.6 7.1 23.0 64.0 12.9 10.1
Q1:21-22 10.0 57.9 32.1 -22.1 35.7 53.6 10.7 25.0
Q2:21-22         44.9 48.5 6.6 38.3
‘Improve’ in Availability of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I6: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Finance
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 29.1 56.3 14.6 -14.6 23.2 66.4 10.4 -12.8
Q2:20-21 24.4 63.4 12.2 -12.2 28.7 59.4 11.9 -16.8
Q3:20-21 20.3 73.2 6.5 -13.8 27.6 65.9 6.5 -21.1
Q4:20-21 25.0 66.7 8.3 -16.7 24.6 68.1 7.2 -17.4
Q1:21-22 15.9 63.0 21.0 5.1 31.7 67.1 1.2 -30.5
Q2:21-22         44.6 51.7 3.7 -41.0
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Finance is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I7: Assessment and Expectation for Salary/Wages
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 18.6 59.8 21.6 2.9 37.5 61.7 0.8 -36.7
Q2:20-21 12.0 64.8 23.2 11.2 21.8 60.4 17.8 -4.0
Q3:20-21 19.3 70.0 10.7 -8.6 23.4 71.0 5.6 -17.7
Q4:20-21 19.0 72.6 8.3 -10.7 22.5 71.7 5.8 -16.7
Q1:21-22 11.5 73.8 14.7 3.2 45.6 48.1 6.3 -39.2
Q2:21-22         40.7 56.4 2.9 -37.8
‘Decrease’ in Salary/Wages is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I8: Assessment and Expectation for Cost of Inputs
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 31.6 58.2 10.2 -21.4 36.1 58.8 5.0 -31.1
Q2:20-21 36.1 59.7 4.2 -31.9 31.6 62.2 6.1 -25.5
Q3:20-21 38.2 56.6 5.1 -33.1 44.4 53.8 1.7 -42.7
Q4:20-21 46.1 52.6 1.3 -44.7 42.2 56.3 1.5 -40.7
Q1:21-22 41.9 53.5 4.6 -37.3 47.2 50.0 2.8 -44.4
Q2:21-22         62.4 37.6 0.0 -62.4
‘Decrease’ in Cost of Inputs is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I9: Assessment and Expectation for Selling Price
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 7.4 66.0 26.6 -19.1 10.8 74.8 14.4 -3.6
Q2:20-21 8.9 63.4 27.7 -18.8 7.5 68.8 23.7 -16.1
Q3:20-21 8.7 75.4 15.9 -7.1 10.9 68.2 20.9 -10.0
Q4:20-21 23.9 56.3 19.7 4.2 15.2 72.8 12.0 3.2
Q1:21-22 12.7 75.6 11.8 0.9 33.3 52.2 14.5 18.8
Q2:21-22         51.8 46.8 1.4 50.5
‘Increase’ in Selling Price is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I10: Assessment and Expectation for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 2.9 33.0 64.1 -61.2 18.6 58.5 22.9 -4.2
Q2:20-21 7.3 43.5 49.2 -41.9 11.9 44.6 43.6 -31.7
Q3:20-21 11.3 53.9 34.8 -23.4 17.4 47.9 34.7 -17.4
Q4:20-21 18.5 51.9 29.6 -11.1 21.0 54.3 24.6 -3.6
Q1:21-22 8.6 52.0 39.4 -30.8 39.2 44.3 16.5 22.8
Q2:21-22         42.3 50.0 7.7 34.7
‘Increase’ in Profit Margin is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I11: Assessment and Expectation for Inventories
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 17.0 68.0 15.0 2.0 16.9 73.7 9.3 7.6
Q2:20-21 12.4 75.2 12.4 0.0 14.3 72.4 13.3 1.0
Q3:20-21 12.9 75.0 12.1 0.8 18.0 69.7 12.3 5.7
Q4:20-21 28.9 60.5 10.5 18.4 16.8 73.3 9.9 6.9
Q1:21-22 10.9 79.2 10.0 0.9 33.8 59.2 7.0 26.8
Q2:21-22         45.2 52.1 2.8 42.4
‘Increase’ in Inventories is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I12: Assessment and Expectation for Technical/Service Capacity
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 4.4 79.1 16.5 -12.1 14.7 82.6 2.8 11.9
Q2:20-21 5.6 85.2 9.3 -3.7 8.8 80.2 11.0 -2.2
Q3:20-21 9.2 83.3 7.5 1.7 9.5 82.9 7.6 1.9
Q4:20-21 20.6 69.8 9.5 11.1 10.0 85.0 5.0 5.0
Q1:21-22 12.1 81.9 6.0 6.0 28.6 64.3 7.1 21.4
Q2:21-22         70.3 29.1 0.7 69.6
‘Increase’ in Technical/Service Capacity is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

Table I13: Assessment and Expectation for Physical Investment
(Percentage responses)
Quarter Assessment Expectation
Increase No Change Decrease Net response Increase No Change Decrease Net response
Q1:20-21 6.7 71.9 21.3 -14.6 20.2 76.9 2.9 17.3
Q2:20-21 10.7 75.7 13.6 -2.9 9.1 72.7 18.2 -9.1
Q3:20-21 9.4 82.1 8.5 0.9 17.6 72.5 9.8 7.8
Q4:20-21 14.3 79.4 6.3 7.9 14.8 77.4 7.8 7.0
Q1:21-22 15.9 79.0 5.1 10.8 29.0 66.1 4.8 24.2
Q2:21-22         68.8 31.2 0.0 68.8
‘Increase’ in Physical Investment is optimistic. Footnotes @ and # given in Table 1 are applicable here.

1 The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on April 07, 2021. This round of the survey was launched on April 22, 2021 and results were compiled with data received till June 30, 2021.

2 Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Positive value indicates expansion/optimism and negative value indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D); where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/ equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100). For example, increase in turnover is optimism whereas decrease in cost of inputs is optimism.


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