Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1 for the January 2022 round. The survey was conducted during January 02 to January 11, 2022 in 13 major cities, viz., Ahmedabad; Bengaluru; Bhopal; Chennai; Delhi; Guwahati; Hyderabad; Jaipur; Kolkata; Lucknow; Mumbai; Patna; and Thiruvananthapuram. The survey obtained current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending from 5,387 households across these cities2. Highlights: -
Consumer confidence for the current period recorded gradual improvement for third successive round of the survey though it remained in pessimistic zone; the current situation index (CSI)3 increased marginally on the back of better sentiments on general economic situation, household income and spending (Chart 1 and Tables 1, 5 and 6). -
One year ahead outlook, as reflected by the future expectations index (FEI), remained in optimism zone; the index, however, moderated as the latest survey period coincided with the surge in COVID-19 infection cases in January 2022 (Chart 1 and Table 1). -
Households reported further increase in overall expenditure driven by higher essential spending; their sentiments on non-essential outlay, however, remained subdued (Tables 6, 7 and 8). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 72.2 | -57.9 | 52.6 | 16.1 | 31.3 | 21.3 | | Mar-21 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 76.0 | -63.9 | 44.0 | 17.3 | 38.7 | 5.3 | | May-21 | 6.5 | 12.1 | 81.4 | -75.0 | 33.2 | 15.3 | 51.5 | -18.3 | | Jul-21 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 78.5 | -69.1 | 39.7 | 15.8 | 44.5 | -4.8 | | Sep-21 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 72.3 | -57.4 | 41.6 | 18.3 | 40.1 | 1.5 | | Nov-21 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 70.8 | -54.2 | 43.9 | 17.4 | 38.7 | 5.2 | | Jan-22 | 17.4 | 15.1 | 67.5 | -50.2 | 40.5 | 16.5 | 43.1 | -2.6 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 75.4 | -62.3 | 55.3 | 16.1 | 28.6 | 26.7 | | Mar-21 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 75.3 | -62.4 | 46.7 | 17.3 | 36.0 | 10.7 | | May-21 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 82.1 | -74.9 | 35.4 | 16.1 | 48.5 | -13.0 | | Jul-21 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 78.4 | -68.2 | 42.2 | 16.5 | 41.3 | 0.9 | | Sep-21 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 72.4 | -57.6 | 45.0 | 17.8 | 37.1 | 7.9 | | Nov-21 | 18.8 | 16.0 | 65.2 | -46.4 | 48.6 | 18.1 | 33.3 | 15.4 | | Jan-22 | 17.4 | 16.3 | 66.4 | -49.0 | 41.4 | 19.1 | 39.6 | 1.8 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 88.6 | 9.6 | 1.7 | -86.9 | 73.2 | 17.1 | 9.7 | -63.5 | | Mar-21 | 93.8 | 5.0 | 1.2 | -92.6 | 75.0 | 14.4 | 10.6 | -64.4 | | May-21 | 90.6 | 7.8 | 1.6 | -89.0 | 73.9 | 16.4 | 9.7 | -64.3 | | Jul-21 | 93.1 | 5.6 | 1.3 | -91.9 | 71.3 | 16.9 | 11.8 | -59.5 | | Sep-21 | 92.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | -90.6 | 74.7 | 15.0 | 10.3 | -64.4 | | Nov-21 | 95.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | -94.5 | 76.5 | 12.9 | 10.6 | -66.0 | | Jan-22 | 93.8 | 5.0 | 1.2 | -92.6 | 78.0 | 12.4 | 9.5 | -68.5 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 83.5 | 13.4 | 3.1 | -80.4 | 77.7 | 17.2 | 5.0 | -72.7 | | Mar-21 | 88.8 | 8.5 | 2.7 | -86.1 | 81.1 | 14.3 | 4.5 | -76.6 | | May-21 | 87.2 | 10.3 | 2.5 | -84.7 | 79.3 | 16.7 | 4.0 | -75.3 | | Jul-21 | 87.9 | 10.4 | 1.7 | -86.3 | 79.7 | 16.3 | 4.0 | -75.8 | | Sep-21 | 88.4 | 9.0 | 2.6 | -85.8 | 81.9 | 13.8 | 4.4 | -77.5 | | Nov-21 | 91.3 | 6.7 | 2.0 | -89.3 | 81.7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | -77.5 | | Jan-22 | 89.1 | 8.1 | 2.8 | -86.2 | 81.3 | 14.0 | 4.7 | -76.6 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 9.9 | 29.2 | 60.9 | -51.0 | 51.3 | 38.8 | 9.9 | 41.4 | | Mar-21 | 7.9 | 30.5 | 61.6 | -53.7 | 46.4 | 40.7 | 13.0 | 33.4 | | May-21 | 8.4 | 33.1 | 58.5 | -50.1 | 42.5 | 42.1 | 15.5 | 27.0 | | Jul-21 | 6.8 | 27.4 | 65.9 | -59.1 | 44.5 | 41.6 | 13.9 | 30.6 | | Sep-21 | 10.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | -47.8 | 44.2 | 42.9 | 12.9 | 31.3 | | Nov-21 | 11.7 | 36.1 | 52.2 | -40.6 | 46.7 | 42.0 | 11.3 | 35.4 | | Jan-22 | 11.5 | 37.9 | 50.6 | -39.1 | 42.3 | 43.4 | 14.3 | 28.0 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 53.3 | 28.9 | 17.8 | 35.5 | 66.4 | 26.7 | 6.8 | 59.6 | | Mar-21 | 56.6 | 24.9 | 18.4 | 38.2 | 67.0 | 25.3 | 7.7 | 59.3 | | May-21 | 50.6 | 30.3 | 19.2 | 31.4 | 60.5 | 29.9 | 9.6 | 50.9 | | Jul-21 | 51.9 | 27.7 | 20.5 | 31.4 | 62.1 | 28.7 | 9.3 | 52.8 | | Sep-21 | 58.1 | 25.7 | 16.2 | 41.9 | 65.7 | 27.5 | 6.9 | 58.8 | | Nov-21 | 62.5 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 47.1 | 66.0 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 58.2 | | Jan-22 | 62.1 | 24.8 | 13.1 | 49.0 | 64.8 | 26.9 | 8.4 | 56.4 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 68.6 | 20.0 | 11.4 | 57.2 | 73.6 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 68.8 | | Mar-21 | 71.1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 58.2 | 74.6 | 20.0 | 5.4 | 69.2 | | May-21 | 63.2 | 22.3 | 14.5 | 48.7 | 68.1 | 24.6 | 7.3 | 60.8 | | Jul-21 | 66.2 | 19.0 | 14.8 | 51.4 | 71.0 | 22.1 | 7.0 | 64.0 | | Sep-21 | 72.2 | 16.7 | 11.0 | 61.2 | 73.4 | 21.3 | 5.4 | 68.1 | | Nov-21 | 75.8 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 66.1 | 74.3 | 20.2 | 5.5 | 68.7 | | Jan-22 | 76.3 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 67.8 | 74.3 | 19.7 | 6.0 | 68.3 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jan-21 | 13.3 | 27.1 | 59.7 | -46.4 | 27.5 | 36.7 | 35.8 | -8.3 | | Mar-21 | 11.9 | 29.5 | 58.5 | -46.6 | 24.7 | 38.3 | 37.1 | -12.4 | | May-21 | 8.7 | 31.5 | 59.7 | -51.0 | 22.2 | 40.7 | 37.1 | -14.9 | | Jul-21 | 8.4 | 27.2 | 64.4 | -56.0 | 21.5 | 37.9 | 40.6 | -19.2 | | Sep-21 | 9.2 | 29.7 | 61.0 | -51.8 | 23.4 | 38.7 | 37.9 | -14.5 | | Nov-21 | 12.1 | 27.7 | 60.3 | -48.2 | 23.4 | 37.1 | 39.5 | -16.1 | | Jan-22 | 13.6 | 31.6 | 54.8 | -41.3 | 22.5 | 39.5 | 38.0 | -15.5 |
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