Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1 for the March 2022 round. The survey was conducted during March 02 to March 11, 2022 in 19 major cities2. The survey obtains current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending from 5,984 households across these cities. Highlights: -
Consumer confidence for the current period continued on its recovery path, witnessed since mid-2021 though the assessment compared to a year ago remained in negative zone. The current situation index (CSI)3 improved further in March 2022 on the back of improved sentiments on general economic situation, employment and household income (Chart 1 and Tables 1, 2 and 5). -
One year ahead outlook, as measured by the future expectations index (FEI), also continued on its recovery path which was interrupted by a dip in the January 2022 round at the peak of Omicron variant impact of COVID-19 (Chart 1 and Table 1). -
Households’ opinion about current and future spending remained in positive territory and was bolstered by a rise in both essential and discretionary spending (Tables 6, 7 and 8). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data4. Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | Mar-21 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 74.7 | -61.3 | 45.6 | 16.8 | 37.5 | 8.1 | May-21 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 80.8 | -73.3 | 33.9 | 15.3 | 50.8 | -16.9 | Jul-21 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 78.0 | -68.0 | 40.1 | 16.3 | 43.6 | -3.4 | Sep-21 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 71.6 | -56.2 | 42.3 | 18.1 | 39.6 | 2.7 | Nov-21 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 70.1 | -52.7 | 44.6 | 17.3 | 38.1 | 6.4 | Jan-22 | 17.8 | 15.6 | 66.7 | -48.9 | 40.8 | 16.7 | 42.5 | -1.7 | Mar-22 | 21.7 | 16.2 | 62.2 | -40.5 | 49.2 | 15.2 | 35.7 | 13.5 | Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | Mar-21 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 73.3 | -59.1 | 47.9 | 17.4 | 34.6 | 13.3 | May-21 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 81.0 | -73.0 | 36.0 | 16.3 | 47.6 | -11.6 | Jul-21 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 77.5 | -66.5 | 42.7 | 16.6 | 40.7 | 2.0 | Sep-21 | 15.6 | 13.5 | 70.9 | -55.4 | 45.7 | 18.1 | 36.3 | 9.4 | Nov-21 | 19.6 | 16.5 | 64.0 | -44.4 | 48.9 | 18.1 | 33.0 | 16.0 | Jan-22 | 17.4 | 17.2 | 65.4 | -48.0 | 41.4 | 19.3 | 39.3 | 2.2 | Mar-22 | 23.6 | 17.0 | 59.5 | -35.9 | 52.9 | 17.0 | 30.2 | 22.7 | Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 94.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | -92.8 | 75.3 | 14.0 | 10.7 | -64.6 | May-21 | 90.4 | 7.7 | 1.9 | -88.5 | 74.3 | 15.9 | 9.8 | -64.4 | Jul-21 | 92.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | -90.8 | 71.5 | 16.3 | 12.2 | -59.4 | Sep-21 | 92.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | -91.0 | 75.0 | 14.5 | 10.5 | -64.5 | Nov-21 | 95.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | -94.2 | 76.6 | 12.6 | 10.9 | -65.7 | Jan-22 | 93.4 | 5.4 | 1.2 | -92.3 | 78.1 | 12.4 | 9.5 | -68.6 | Mar-22 | 93.3 | 5.6 | 1.2 | -92.1 | 79.1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | -68.6 | Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 88.8 | 8.5 | 2.8 | -86.0 | 81.2 | 14.2 | 4.6 | -76.6 | May-21 | 86.4 | 11.1 | 2.5 | -84.0 | 80.1 | 15.9 | 4.0 | -76.1 | Jul-21 | 87.6 | 10.4 | 2.0 | -85.6 | 79.8 | 15.9 | 4.3 | -75.5 | Sep-21 | 88.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | -85.3 | 82.9 | 12.9 | 4.3 | -78.6 | Nov-21 | 90.6 | 7.1 | 2.3 | -88.4 | 82.4 | 13.2 | 4.4 | -78.0 | Jan-22 | 88.1 | 8.7 | 3.2 | -84.9 | 81.7 | 13.5 | 4.7 | -77.0 | Mar-22 | 88.5 | 9.3 | 2.2 | -86.2 | 83.9 | 12.4 | 3.7 | -80.2 | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. | Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 9.8 | 30.1 | 60.1 | -50.4 | 48.3 | 39.4 | 12.4 | 35.9 | May-21 | 10.1 | 32.5 | 57.4 | -47.3 | 44.1 | 40.9 | 15.0 | 29.1 | Jul-21 | 8.0 | 27.2 | 64.9 | -56.9 | 45.7 | 40.3 | 14.1 | 31.6 | Sep-21 | 11.2 | 31.5 | 57.3 | -46.1 | 45.4 | 41.8 | 12.8 | 32.6 | Nov-21 | 13.0 | 36.0 | 51.0 | -38.1 | 47.9 | 40.8 | 11.3 | 36.6 | Jan-22 | 12.3 | 38.0 | 49.7 | -37.4 | 43.2 | 42.5 | 14.3 | 29.0 | Mar-22 | 16.0 | 42.1 | 42.0 | -26.0 | 52.9 | 38.5 | 8.6 | 44.3 | Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 56.8 | 24.5 | 18.7 | 38.0 | 67.5 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 59.6 | May-21 | 50.5 | 29.8 | 19.7 | 30.8 | 61.5 | 29.1 | 9.4 | 52.0 | Jul-21 | 51.5 | 27.0 | 21.6 | 29.9 | 62.7 | 27.8 | 9.5 | 53.1 | Sep-21 | 58.3 | 25.4 | 16.3 | 42.0 | 66.0 | 26.7 | 7.3 | 58.8 | Nov-21 | 62.2 | 22.1 | 15.8 | 46.4 | 66.4 | 25.7 | 8.0 | 58.4 | Jan-22 | 61.7 | 24.9 | 13.3 | 48.4 | 64.4 | 26.9 | 8.7 | 55.8 | Mar-22 | 64.1 | 24.8 | 11.1 | 53.0 | 70.4 | 23.2 | 6.4 | 64.1 | Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 71.0 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 58.2 | 74.7 | 19.8 | 5.6 | 69.1 | May-21 | 62.6 | 22.3 | 15.1 | 47.5 | 68.4 | 24.2 | 7.4 | 61.0 | Jul-21 | 65.4 | 18.8 | 15.8 | 49.7 | 71.1 | 21.7 | 7.2 | 63.9 | Sep-21 | 72.4 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 61.3 | 73.5 | 20.7 | 5.8 | 67.8 | Nov-21 | 75.4 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 65.4 | 74.1 | 20.1 | 5.8 | 68.4 | Jan-22 | 75.7 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 67.1 | 73.5 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 67.0 | Mar-22 | 76.6 | 15.7 | 7.7 | 68.9 | 78.6 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 73.5 | Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | Mar-21 | 13.4 | 28.6 | 58.0 | -44.7 | 26.9 | 37.2 | 35.8 | -8.9 | May-21 | 10.4 | 31.1 | 58.5 | -48.1 | 25.1 | 40.0 | 35.0 | -9.9 | Jul-21 | 9.3 | 26.9 | 63.8 | -54.5 | 23.9 | 36.9 | 39.2 | -15.3 | Sep-21 | 10.2 | 28.9 | 60.8 | -50.6 | 25.5 | 37.0 | 37.5 | -12.0 | Nov-21 | 12.9 | 26.8 | 60.4 | -47.5 | 25.0 | 36.3 | 38.7 | -13.7 | Jan-22 | 14.3 | 31.1 | 54.5 | -40.2 | 23.6 | 38.6 | 37.8 | -14.2 | Mar-22 | 16.1 | 31.6 | 52.2 | -36.1 | 28.9 | 36.7 | 34.4 | -5.5 | |