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Date : Apr 08, 2022
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the March 2022 round of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during March 2 to 11, 2022 in 19 major cities3. The results are based on responses from 6,033 urban households.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median inflation perceptions for the current period remained unchanged at 9.7 per cent in the latest survey round, while the expectations for both three months and one year ahead rose by 10 basis points each to 10.7 per cent and 10.8 per cent, respectively, as compared to January 2022 round [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For a majority of population and age groups, uncertainty in inflation expectations increased for both three months and one year horizons, as compared to the previous survey round [Tables 1(a), 1(b) and 2].

  3. Three months ahead expectations for overall prices and inflation were generally aligned to those for food and non-food products, while one year ahead expectations were more aligned to those for non-food products and services [Table 4].

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data4.

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 86.6 0.74 84.9 0.76 89.3 0.64 85.6 0.68 89.9 0.64
Price increase more than current rate 58.3 1.14 61.5 1.14 66.9 1.16 61.4 1.07 67.2 1.27
Price increase similar to current rate 24.2 0.94 19.9 0.88 19.2 0.94 20.5 0.87 19.3 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.50 3.5 0.40 3.3 0.41 3.7 0.40 3.5 0.45
No changes in prices 11.1 0.71 12.9 0.71 8.2 0.55 12.0 0.64 8.6 0.59
Decline in prices 2.3 0.29 2.2 0.29 2.5 0.30 2.4 0.30 1.5 0.22
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 85.2 0.70 84.8 0.73 86.0 0.70 83.7 0.71 89.6 0.62
Price increase more than current rate 61.1 1.01 61.3 1.08 63.6 1.16 61.0 1.01 68.2 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 18.2 0.81 18.3 0.80 17.2 0.82 17.0 0.78 16.2 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 5.9 0.55 5.3 0.50 5.2 0.46 5.7 0.47 5.2 0.48
No changes in prices 9.3 0.60 10.7 0.64 8.2 0.51 10.5 0.58 6.9 0.51
Decline in prices 5.5 0.45 4.4 0.40 5.9 0.46 5.8 0.45 3.5 0.36
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.0 0.78 82.1 0.81 86.3 0.67 80.4 0.73 88.4 0.63
Price increase more than current rate 56.9 0.99 58.7 1.14 62.5 1.17 55.4 1.02 65.6 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.76 18.3 0.82 18.8 0.85 19.4 0.80 17.6 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.42 5.1 0.44 4.9 0.48 5.6 0.46 5.2 0.49
No changes in prices 12.8 0.69 13.6 0.72 8.9 0.54 14.1 0.64 8.7 0.56
Decline in prices 6.2 0.48 4.3 0.42 4.8 0.43 5.4 0.43 2.9 0.31
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 68.1 0.91 67.3 0.96 68.6 0.90 69.9 0.88 73.5 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 45.9 0.98 46.4 1.08 47.7 1.11 48.6 1.03 51.9 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 17.8 0.74 16.3 0.77 16.0 0.77 16.2 0.70 16.0 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.44 4.6 0.43 4.9 0.44 5.1 0.45 5.5 0.50
No changes in prices 24.6 0.84 25.0 0.86 22.7 0.82 23.1 0.82 20.4 0.83
Decline in prices 7.3 0.50 7.7 0.53 8.7 0.54 7.0 0.45 6.1 0.44
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 69.0 0.93 68.8 0.95 74.3 0.94 71.5 0.88 75.8 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 48.4 1.03 49.6 1.07 55.1 1.16 51.3 1.07 54.9 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 16.8 0.74 15.2 0.77 15.6 0.78 16.1 0.74 16.6 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.40 3.9 0.42 3.7 0.39 4.2 0.42 4.3 0.40
No changes in prices 22.1 0.85 21.8 0.85 19.0 0.82 21.3 0.80 18.9 0.86
Decline in prices 8.9 0.54 9.4 0.58 6.7 0.50 7.2 0.48 5.4 0.46
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 75.6 0.89 73.3 0.93 76.5 0.86 74.3 0.83 76.3 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 51.6 1.02 52.1 1.09 53.9 1.19 51.6 1.05 54.5 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 19.5 0.78 16.9 0.75 17.6 0.80 18.0 0.79 16.8 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.44 4.4 0.41 5.0 0.49 4.6 0.43 5.0 0.47
No changes in prices 20.7 0.84 23.7 0.90 20.2 0.80 22.3 0.78 21.2 0.86
Decline in prices 3.7 0.36 3.0 0.33 3.3 0.34 3.4 0.34 2.4 0.29
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 88.6 0.61 87.6 0.72 90.4 0.59 89.6 0.58 91.5 0.58
Price increase more than current rate 63.2 1.06 66.3 1.09 70.5 1.15 68.2 1.05 71.0 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 21.5 0.86 18.1 0.85 16.7 0.91 18.1 0.81 17.4 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.44 3.3 0.36 3.3 0.39 3.3 0.39 3.1 0.41
No changes in prices 8.5 0.54 9.4 0.61 6.4 0.46 7.8 0.50 6.1 0.48
Decline in prices 2.8 0.32 3.0 0.35 3.1 0.35 2.6 0.29 2.4 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.6 0.73 81.5 0.79 84.5 0.74 83.8 0.71 85.3 0.72
Price increase more than current rate 54.5 1.00 57.2 1.11 60.2 1.20 58.2 1.06 60.9 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 22.2 0.83 19.6 0.89 19.9 0.92 20.4 0.86 19.6 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.45 4.7 0.45 4.4 0.42 5.2 0.45 4.8 0.47
No changes in prices 12.0 0.61 11.9 0.65 9.4 0.57 10.9 0.61 9.8 0.59
Decline in prices 6.3 0.45 6.6 0.47 6.1 0.47 5.3 0.40 5.0 0.41
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 79.9 0.79 81.4 0.81 85.1 0.72 82.9 0.72 85.8 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 53.8 1.01 57.8 1.12 61.7 1.20 57.5 1.09 62.4 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 21.5 0.83 19.5 0.84 19.0 0.87 20.5 0.86 18.9 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.43 4.1 0.40 4.4 0.45 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.44
No changes in prices 13.4 0.66 13.3 0.71 9.5 0.56 12.0 0.61 9.7 0.60
Decline in prices 6.7 0.47 5.3 0.42 5.4 0.43 5.0 0.41 4.5 0.40
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 70.3 0.90 71.4 0.98 75.0 0.87 75.4 0.87 77.3 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 47.1 0.97 49.3 1.09 52.3 1.16 52.1 1.07 54.1 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 18.9 0.73 17.5 0.83 18.2 0.85 18.7 0.81 18.3 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.42 4.5 0.45 4.5 0.45 4.6 0.45 4.8 0.48
No changes in prices 22.7 0.80 22.4 0.89 18.0 0.75 18.5 0.77 17.1 0.74
Decline in prices 7.0 0.48 6.2 0.46 7.0 0.48 6.1 0.44 5.6 0.43
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 75.7 0.86 76.4 0.87 82.4 0.77 79.3 0.78 83.1 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 53.7 1.03 55.1 1.08 60.6 1.15 57.0 1.03 61.1 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.79 16.8 0.80 17.9 0.86 18.1 0.78 17.6 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.38 4.5 0.42 3.9 0.40 4.2 0.43 4.5 0.43
No changes in prices 17.8 0.75 17.4 0.78 12.8 0.67 15.1 0.66 13.2 0.67
Decline in prices 6.5 0.48 6.2 0.47 4.9 0.41 5.6 0.43 3.7 0.36
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 81.4 0.74 79.8 0.84 83.6 0.73 82.0 0.75 83.0 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 55.1 1.01 56.6 1.14 59.5 1.20 57.5 1.04 59.2 1.25
Price increase similar to current rate 21.6 0.81 18.9 0.85 19.1 0.88 19.8 0.81 18.8 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.43 4.3 0.43 5.0 0.46 4.6 0.44 5.0 0.47
No changes in prices 15.1 0.66 16.6 0.76 13.3 0.65 15.1 0.68 14.1 0.71
Decline in prices 3.5 0.35 3.6 0.38 3.1 0.34 3.0 0.31 3.0 0.32
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Mar-22
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.8 0.12 9.7 0.31 11.1 0.12 10.7 0.09 10.9 0.13 10.8 0.11
Gender-wise                        
Male 10.1 0.15 10.1 0.11 11.4 0.15 11.0 0.28 11.2 0.17 11.4 0.47
Female 9.6 0.16 9.2 0.37 10.9 0.16 10.5 0.10 10.7 0.18 10.6 0.12
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.2 0.53 7.9 0.66 10.6 0.56 9.4 0.76 11.0 0.61 10.7 0.70
Other Employees 9.9 0.21 9.8 0.41 11.2 0.20 10.8 0.21 11.0 0.24 11.1 0.41
Self Employed 10.5 0.25 10.3 0.12 11.8 0.24 12.0 0.71 11.3 0.28 12.0 0.70
Homemaker 9.8 0.18 9.7 0.39 11.0 0.18 10.6 0.12 10.8 0.21 10.7 0.15
Retired Persons 10.7 0.44 10.5 0.22 11.8 0.43 11.8 0.93 12.0 0.44 12.6 1.17
Daily Workers 10.0 0.28 9.8 0.36 11.1 0.28 10.7 0.28 10.9 0.33 11.0 0.54
Other category 9.1 0.23 8.2 0.36 10.5 0.24 10.2 0.22 10.6 0.27 10.4 0.22
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 9.0 0.19 8.3 0.31 10.4 0.20 10.1 0.23 10.6 0.23 10.5 0.18
25 to 30 years 9.8 0.22 9.4 0.45 11.1 0.22 10.7 0.23 10.9 0.25 11.0 0.45
30 to 35 years 9.7 0.22 9.1 0.49 11.2 0.21 10.7 0.21 11.1 0.25 11.0 0.39
35 to 40 years 10.1 0.21 10.1 0.21 11.4 0.21 11.0 0.30 11.1 0.24 10.9 0.35
40 to 45 years 10.0 0.24 10.1 0.21 11.2 0.25 10.8 0.24 10.7 0.30 11.0 0.49
45 to 50 years 10.0 0.26 9.9 0.35 11.3 0.25 10.9 0.46 10.8 0.31 10.8 0.36
50 to 55 years 10.3 0.28 10.1 0.30 11.4 0.27 11.0 0.41 11.0 0.34 11.2 0.64
55 to 60 years 10.3 0.34 10.0 0.38 11.5 0.34 11.4 0.69 11.3 0.38 11.2 0.90
60 years and above 10.5 0.30 10.3 0.16 11.5 0.29 11.0 0.49 11.5 0.33 11.8 0.78
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 8.7 0.65 7.0 0.77 10.1 0.67 8.6 1.03 10.4 0.64 9.5 1.04
Bengaluru 9.9 0.28 10.2 0.25 11.4 0.30 11.2 0.67 11.1 0.34 12.2 1.09
Bhopal 8.6 0.68 7.6 1.57 10.0 0.62 9.8 1.48 9.3 0.61 9.6 1.15
Bhubaneswar 5.4 0.52 5.2 0.55 7.3 0.60 7.1 0.76 8.4 0.59 8.1 0.63
Chennai 10.1 0.44 10.3 0.27 11.5 0.41 11.3 0.71 11.8 0.42 13.8 1.39
Delhi 9.7 0.25 9.7 0.47 10.9 0.29 10.5 0.22 10.7 0.36 10.8 0.52
Guwahati 6.6 0.37 6.1 0.37 7.2 0.45 6.9 0.54 7.8 0.75 7.6 0.84
Hyderabad 11.8 0.62 12.4 2.24 13.6 0.48 15.9 0.36 13.2 0.47 16.0 0.27
Jaipur 9.1 0.47 8.8 0.56 10.1 0.52 10.0 0.48 9.4 0.48 9.7 0.56
Jammu 9.6 0.65 9.7 0.72 9.9 0.67 9.6 0.87 8.6 0.86 8.7 1.02
Kolkata 10.4 0.35 10.3 0.19 11.8 0.32 11.9 0.59 11.6 0.35 12.2 0.81
Lucknow 10.6 0.57 10.1 0.41 11.3 0.46 10.9 0.85 10.2 0.59 10.2 0.45
Mumbai 10.3 0.27 9.5 0.43 11.5 0.28 10.8 0.33 11.0 0.33 11.0 0.43
Nagpur 10.3 0.65 9.6 0.95 11.8 0.60 11.8 1.52 11.3 0.64 11.8 1.39
Patna 8.4 0.55 8.1 0.56 9.6 0.80 9.3 0.76 9.4 0.83 9.4 0.75
Thiruvananthapuram 6.0 0.55 5.2 0.44 7.9 0.58 7.2 0.60 9.2 0.80 8.6 1.04
Chandigarh 10.8 0.66 10.0 0.43 11.4 0.76 10.7 1.02 10.5 0.99 10.2 1.12
Ranchi 7.3 0.35 6.6 0.23 8.0 0.35 7.5 0.43 8.2 0.38 8.2 0.25
Raipur 7.0 0.48 6.2 0.56 7.3 0.59 6.8 0.82 6.9 0.95 6.9 1.28
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Mar-21 9.4 0.11 8.8 0.15 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.12 10.0 0.12 10.2 0.09
Sep-21 10.4 0.11 10.2 0.06 11.4 0.11 10.8 0.11 10.8 0.13 10.9 0.14
Nov-21 10.7 0.11 10.4 0.05 11.9 0.11 12.3 0.27 11.5 0.12 12.7 0.27
Jan-22 9.9 0.10 9.7 0.28 11.1 0.10 10.6 0.08 10.7 0.11 10.7 0.09
Mar-22 9.8 0.12 9.7 0.31 11.1 0.12 10.7 0.09 10.9 0.13 10.8 0.11
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-21 67.1 65.9 57.5 58.9 65.3
Sep-21 68.8 69.1 59.5 60.2 66.7
Nov-21 69.8 70.5 59.0 63.4 65.7
Jan-22 66.8 65.8 60.5 61.7 66.0
Mar-22 70.5 70.8 60.2 62.0 65.8
One Year Ahead
Mar-21 69.7 70.2 62.5 65.8 71.8
Sep-21 71.3 72.9 64.9 67.1 73.8
Nov-21 73.8 74.8 66.2 70.4 73.2
Jan-22 71.7 72.4 65.2 67.5 72.9
Mar-22 73.1 74.2 67.5 69.4 74.4
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-22
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 12 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
1-<2 0 16 14 8 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
2-<3 0 5 70 42 33 13 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 170
3-<4 0 3 3 47 50 44 20 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 177
4-<5 0 0 5 8 88 83 67 18 8 1 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 286
5-<6 0 0 9 14 23 329 163 216 86 14 137 2 5 1 0 14 5 0 1018
6-<7 0 0 1 4 2 8 117 97 77 24 26 4 6 1 5 4 0 0 376
7-<8 0 0 0 2 1 3 8 134 104 59 72 7 14 3 8 4 1 0 420
8-<9 1 1 2 0 3 3 3 3 134 68 140 15 34 11 2 9 6 0 435
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 4 59 55 27 24 4 8 6 6 0 198
10-<11 0 0 1 0 3 25 3 9 8 12 357 64 185 50 27 296 150 2 1192
11-<12 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 6 7 2 2 4 4 0 29
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 33 8 11 30 16 0 102
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 6 8 7 0 27
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 13 0 25
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 86 176 1 269
>=16 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 0 2 1 20 0 2 0 0 24 1191 1 1247
Total 13 29 109 127 203 518 387 484 427 242 824 128 312 85 75 491 1575 4 6033
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-22
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 10 3 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 22
1-<2 9 4 11 6 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40
2-<3 20 2 42 28 35 23 9 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 170
3-<4 22 0 1 29 28 42 19 14 11 2 7 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 177
4-<5 30 0 0 4 56 61 55 26 21 14 13 1 4 0 0 0 1 0 286
5-<6 85 0 1 8 7 219 106 178 117 32 162 7 12 9 5 34 36 0 1018
6-<7 23 0 0 3 0 8 77 62 90 36 41 5 17 3 0 8 3 0 376
7-<8 31 0 1 0 1 3 3 84 65 63 98 12 24 3 8 12 11 1 420
8-<9 33 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 85 52 131 27 43 11 6 16 23 0 435
9-<10 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 42 37 28 31 6 11 18 6 0 198
10-<11 104 0 0 0 1 7 4 4 9 11 235 41 126 41 21 289 298 1 1192
11-<12 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 3 2 2 7 3 0 29
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 26 6 10 22 29 0 102
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 11 8 0 27
14-<15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 16 0 25
15-<16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 1 0 1 46 199 0 269
>=16 109 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 14 0 1 0 0 18 1102 2 1247
Total 520 9 58 80 132 374 279 376 406 253 748 125 289 86 70 484 1740 4 6033
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 10, 2022.

2 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank of India. It provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by the respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, they should be treated as households’ sentiments on inflation.

3 These results include Jammu as the new survey centre, which constitutes 1.6 per cent of respondents in the latest survey round. The results for all the 19 cities, including Jammu, from the March 2021 through March 2022 rounds are released in the attached excel file and the same is also updated in the respective tables as applicable.

4 Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) portal of the Bank (weblink: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData).

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