Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2024 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS)1. The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during September 1-10, 2024, covering 6,087 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 49.2 per cent of this sample. Highlights: -
Consumer confidence for the current period improved again after the uptrend since mid-2021 was interrupted in the previous two survey rounds; sentiments on all major economic parameters inched up in the September 2024 (Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6). -
Current Situation Index (CSI)2 improved by 0.8 points to 94.7 though it remained below the threshold level of 100 (Chart 1). -
Households expressed higher confidence for the year ahead in all survey parameters (Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6). -
The future expectations index (FEI) improved by 0.7 points to 121.4 in the latest survey (Chart 1). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 36.1 | 19.9 | 44.0 | -7.9 | 56.8 | 15.1 | 28.1 | 28.6 | | Nov-23 | 33.1 | 22.5 | 44.4 | -11.3 | 54.3 | 17.2 | 28.5 | 25.7 | | Jan-24 | 37.5 | 22.3 | 40.2 | -2.7 | 59.2 | 15.3 | 25.5 | 33.7 | | Mar-24 | 41.2 | 23.1 | 35.8 | 5.4 | 60.7 | 15.8 | 23.4 | 37.3 | | May-24 | 40.0 | 22.6 | 37.4 | 2.6 | 59.0 | 15.6 | 25.4 | 33.5 | | Jul-24 | 36.3 | 22.4 | 41.3 | -5.0 | 55.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 26.1 | | Sep-24 | 37.3 | 21.1 | 41.6 | -4.4 | 55.5 | 16.0 | 28.6 | 26.9 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 34.0 | 21.8 | 44.2 | -10.2 | 55.8 | 18.1 | 26.2 | 29.6 | | Nov-23 | 32.3 | 23.0 | 44.7 | -12.4 | 53.6 | 19.7 | 26.8 | 26.9 | | Jan-24 | 35.3 | 23.4 | 41.3 | -6.0 | 58.7 | 17.4 | 24.0 | 34.7 | | Mar-24 | 38.1 | 23.8 | 38.1 | -0.0 | 60.0 | 17.4 | 22.6 | 37.4 | | May-24 | 36.8 | 23.0 | 40.2 | -3.3 | 58.0 | 18.3 | 23.7 | 34.3 | | Jul-24 | 34.5 | 23.0 | 42.6 | -8.1 | 54.2 | 18.4 | 27.4 | 26.8 | | Sep-24 | 35.5 | 21.8 | 42.8 | -7.3 | 54.2 | 18.9 | 26.9 | 27.3 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 91.8 | 6.4 | 1.8 | -90.0 | 78.4 | 9.9 | 11.7 | -66.8 | | Nov-23 | 91.3 | 7.3 | 1.4 | -89.9 | 81.0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | -72.3 | | Jan-24 | 90.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | -88.9 | 80.5 | 10.4 | 9.1 | -71.4 | | Mar-24 | 89.2 | 9.3 | 1.4 | -87.8 | 78.2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | -68.8 | | May-24 | 90.5 | 7.8 | 1.6 | -88.9 | 79.0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | -68.4 | | Jul-24 | 93.3 | 6.0 | 0.7 | -92.6 | 82.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | -74.3 | | Sep-24 | 93.3 | 5.8 | 0.9 | -92.4 | 82.0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | -73.3 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 82.5 | 13.4 | 4.2 | -78.3 | 79.4 | 15.8 | 4.8 | -74.6 | | Nov-23 | 81.8 | 13.6 | 4.6 | -77.2 | 80.1 | 14.7 | 5.2 | -75.0 | | Jan-24 | 79.5 | 15.7 | 4.8 | -74.7 | 77.2 | 17.8 | 5.0 | -72.2 | | Mar-24 | 77.0 | 17.6 | 5.4 | -71.6 | 76.7 | 18.3 | 5.0 | -71.7 | | May-24 | 77.8 | 15.1 | 7.1 | -70.6 | 79.1 | 16.0 | 4.9 | -74.3 | | Jul-24 | 80.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | -74.6 | 79.4 | 16.2 | 4.4 | -75.0 | | Sep-24 | 80.7 | 13.0 | 6.2 | -74.5 | 78.7 | 15.9 | 5.4 | -73.4 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 25.0 | 49.8 | 25.2 | -0.3 | 55.7 | 37.8 | 6.5 | 49.2 | | Nov-23 | 27.2 | 50.1 | 22.7 | 4.5 | 57.9 | 36.0 | 6.1 | 51.8 | | Jan-24 | 26.4 | 51.5 | 22.1 | 4.2 | 56.3 | 36.9 | 6.8 | 49.4 | | Mar-24 | 27.7 | 50.6 | 21.7 | 6.0 | 56.7 | 37.2 | 6.1 | 50.5 | | May-24 | 25.3 | 52.3 | 22.4 | 2.9 | 56.9 | 36.9 | 6.2 | 50.7 | | Jul-24 | 24.4 | 50.8 | 24.9 | -0.5 | 55.9 | 37.3 | 6.8 | 49.1 | | Sep-24 | 24.1 | 51.6 | 24.3 | -0.3 | 55.8 | 38.2 | 6.0 | 49.9 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 74.6 | 20.2 | 5.2 | 69.4 | 75.2 | 20.3 | 4.6 | 70.6 | | Nov-23 | 74.8 | 20.6 | 4.6 | 70.1 | 75.0 | 21.0 | 4.1 | 70.9 | | Jan-24 | 73.2 | 22.3 | 4.5 | 68.6 | 74.2 | 20.9 | 5.0 | 69.2 | | Mar-24 | 73.1 | 23.1 | 3.8 | 69.2 | 73.9 | 21.7 | 4.3 | 69.6 | | May-24 | 76.2 | 20.1 | 3.8 | 72.5 | 77.9 | 18.1 | 4.0 | 73.9 | | Jul-24 | 78.9 | 18.0 | 3.1 | 75.8 | 79.5 | 16.5 | 3.9 | 75.6 | | Sep-24 | 80.4 | 16.9 | 2.7 | 77.6 | 79.6 | 16.9 | 3.6 | 76.0 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 84.9 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 81.7 | 82.0 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 78.4 | | Nov-23 | 85.7 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 82.7 | 82.3 | 14.4 | 3.4 | 78.9 | | Jan-24 | 84.1 | 12.9 | 3.0 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 14.6 | 3.6 | 78.2 | | Mar-24 | 84.5 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 82.0 | 82.5 | 14.5 | 3.0 | 79.5 | | May-24 | 85.6 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 82.9 | 84.7 | 12.3 | 3.1 | 81.6 | | Jul-24 | 87.3 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 85.1 | 85.0 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 82.0 | | Sep-24 | 87.9 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 86.2 | 84.9 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 82.2 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Sep-23 | 23.4 | 38.5 | 38.2 | -14.8 | 33.0 | 38.2 | 28.8 | 4.2 | | Nov-23 | 25.2 | 36.6 | 38.2 | -13.0 | 34.1 | 36.8 | 29.0 | 5.1 | | Jan-24 | 27.2 | 36.2 | 36.6 | -9.4 | 34.6 | 36.4 | 29.0 | 5.5 | | Mar-24 | 29.2 | 37.6 | 33.2 | -4.1 | 35.7 | 37.6 | 26.7 | 9.0 | | May-24 | 30.5 | 35.4 | 34.1 | -3.7 | 37.4 | 35.2 | 27.4 | 9.9 | | Jul-24 | 29.0 | 36.7 | 34.4 | -5.4 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 27.0 | 10.3 | | Sep-24 | 27.6 | 40.2 | 32.3 | -4.7 | 36.4 | 37.8 | 25.8 | 10.6 |
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