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Date : Oct 09, 2024
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during September 1-10, 2024, in 19 major cities, with 6,076 valid responses, where female participation was 52.6 per cent.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median perception of current inflation declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 8.1 per cent, when compared to July 2024 round of the survey; their inflation expectations for three months and one year ahead periods moderated by 20 and 10 bps, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation have reduced vis-à-vis the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Price and inflationary pressures eased across all the product groups [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  4. Female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations when compared to their male counterparts [Table 2].

Charts 1a and 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-23 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 74.2 0.97 76.5 0.85 80.6 0.81 82.3 0.77 79.7 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 49.5 1.10 53.1 1.08 59.1 1.13 60.5 1.13 55.5 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.80 18.2 0.79 17.5 0.83 17.3 0.86 19.2 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.47 5.2 0.44 4.0 0.43 4.5 0.48 5.0 0.55
No changes in prices 20.7 0.88 19.6 0.80 16.6 0.77 14.6 0.71 17.9 0.85
Decline in prices 5.0 0.52 3.9 0.38 2.8 0.32 3.1 0.37 2.5 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.4 0.87 76.7 0.81 81.8 0.74 84.2 0.70 83.9 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 55.1 1.05 54.4 1.00 61.0 1.07 62.1 1.03 60.7 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 15.1 0.71 15.7 0.69 15.3 0.74 16.0 0.75 16.7 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.46 6.6 0.50 5.5 0.46 6.1 0.52 6.6 0.58
No changes in prices 13.2 0.68 15.1 0.68 12.1 0.64 10.2 0.57 11.2 0.67
Decline in prices 11.3 0.66 8.2 0.54 6.1 0.46 5.6 0.47 4.9 0.42
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 69.2 0.93 71.5 0.87 75.0 0.85 77.0 0.81 76.1 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 47.1 1.04 48.9 1.01 53.7 1.11 54.5 1.10 52.4 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.72 16.2 0.71 15.6 0.72 16.2 0.79 17.7 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.51 6.4 0.48 5.7 0.50 6.2 0.52 6.1 0.55
No changes in prices 20.5 0.77 20.9 0.80 19.3 0.78 17.6 0.74 19.1 0.85
Decline in prices 10.3 0.66 7.7 0.51 5.7 0.43 5.4 0.48 4.7 0.42
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 62.2 0.99 64.7 0.92 68.2 0.94 68.2 0.97 64.9 1.03
Price increase more than current rate 43.2 1.05 43.8 1.01 48.3 1.10 49.6 1.09 45.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 14.1 0.65 15.5 0.70 15.2 0.74 13.9 0.73 14.2 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.43 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.48
No changes in prices 26.4 0.88 26.1 0.85 23.4 0.86 23.4 0.88 25.2 0.97
Decline in prices 11.3 0.64 9.2 0.57 8.5 0.53 8.4 0.58 9.8 0.55
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 75.1 0.95 76.9 0.83 80.4 0.81 78.6 0.84 77.7 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 54.3 1.09 55.8 1.07 59.3 1.06 59.6 1.07 56.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.66 16.4 0.74 16.7 0.77 14.8 0.78 16.3 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.43 4.7 0.40 4.3 0.44 4.1 0.45 4.5 0.48
No changes in prices 20.9 0.90 19.6 0.78 16.7 0.77 18.2 0.78 19.1 0.87
Decline in prices 4.1 0.46 3.5 0.36 3.0 0.34 3.2 0.37 3.3 0.35
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 63.0 1.04 65.0 0.97 68.6 0.98 71.0 0.95 66.9 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 44.7 1.05 45.5 1.09 49.2 1.12 52.7 1.12 46.9 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 14.5 0.68 14.4 0.70 14.4 0.68 13.6 0.70 15.5 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.40 5.2 0.45 5.0 0.46 4.6 0.46 4.5 0.46
No changes in prices 31.2 0.99 30.1 0.92 27.3 0.94 25.3 0.90 29.8 1.01
Decline in prices 5.7 0.54 4.8 0.43 4.1 0.39 3.7 0.38 3.2 0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-23 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 86.2 0.74 87.4 0.67 89.1 0.64 90.6 0.60 89.4 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 62.2 1.05 64.7 1.08 67.9 1.14 68.6 1.12 66.5 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.9 0.81 18.5 0.83 17.8 0.90 18.3 0.86 18.6 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.43 4.2 0.41 3.5 0.41 3.7 0.43 4.4 0.50
No changes in prices 9.6 0.59 9.7 0.59 7.9 0.56 6.6 0.50 8.6 0.67
Decline in prices 4.2 0.48 2.9 0.35 3.0 0.34 2.9 0.35 2.0 0.28
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.8 0.80 84.5 0.73 86.0 0.68 87.1 0.65 86.6 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 57.9 1.09 59.5 1.10 62.8 1.10 63.5 1.09 61.8 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.82 19.8 0.80 18.3 0.86 19.0 0.84 19.2 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.48 5.2 0.45 4.9 0.49 4.6 0.48 5.6 0.55
No changes in prices 9.6 0.58 10.1 0.61 9.3 0.58 7.9 0.52 9.7 0.66
Decline in prices 7.6 0.60 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.39 5.0 0.43 3.8 0.38
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 78.9 0.83 81.1 0.76 82.1 0.79 82.9 0.77 82.4 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 54.7 1.05 56.3 1.09 59.8 1.13 61.2 1.12 58.3 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.78 19.5 0.82 17.3 0.80 16.9 0.80 18.5 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.44 5.3 0.47 5.1 0.47 4.8 0.46 5.6 0.57
No changes in prices 13.9 0.66 14.1 0.69 12.9 0.68 12.4 0.64 14.0 0.77
Decline in prices 7.2 0.57 4.8 0.44 5.0 0.44 4.7 0.44 3.6 0.37
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 73.9 0.91 74.5 0.83 76.8 0.83 77.4 0.83 76.2 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 52.4 1.04 52.3 1.06 56.0 1.12 56.6 1.12 54.5 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.71 17.3 0.76 16.4 0.79 16.1 0.76 16.5 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.42 5.0 0.45 4.4 0.44 4.8 0.49 5.1 0.50
No changes in prices 18.5 0.76 18.1 0.76 16.6 0.72 16.3 0.73 17.3 0.79
Decline in prices 7.7 0.56 7.4 0.51 6.6 0.47 6.3 0.48 6.5 0.49
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 86.1 0.70 87.2 0.66 89.2 0.64 88.2 0.66 87.7 0.74
Price increase more than current rate 65.0 1.04 65.6 1.01 68.7 1.02 66.6 1.05 65.9 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 16.9 0.73 17.2 0.74 16.3 0.75 17.7 0.80 17.0 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.42 4.4 0.39 4.2 0.45 3.9 0.43 4.8 0.53
No changes in prices 10.1 0.56 9.5 0.57 8.4 0.57 8.6 0.55 8.9 0.60
Decline in prices 3.8 0.43 3.3 0.36 2.4 0.31 3.2 0.36 3.4 0.40
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 78.4 0.86 80.1 0.78 82.1 0.77 83.4 0.76 82.2 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 56.2 1.05 56.3 1.08 58.9 1.13 61.6 1.17 58.8 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 18.0 0.70 18.9 0.78 18.6 0.83 17.4 0.82 17.9 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.43 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44 4.4 0.45 5.5 0.57
No changes in prices 17.1 0.74 16.0 0.71 14.7 0.71 13.2 0.67 15.3 0.80
Decline in prices 4.4 0.48 3.9 0.38 3.2 0.34 3.4 0.39 2.4 0.30
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-24
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.17 9.7 0.14 9.4 0.32 9.7 0.16 10.1 0.16
Female 8.5 0.12 8.0 0.17 9.5 0.13 9.2 0.31 9.5 0.16 10.0 0.18
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.0 0.56 8.6 0.80 9.7 0.61 9.4 0.92 10.4 0.66 10.3 1.17
Other Employees 8.6 0.16 8.1 0.21 9.5 0.17 9.0 0.28 9.6 0.20 10.0 0.23
Self Employed 8.9 0.19 8.4 0.24 9.7 0.20 9.8 0.40 9.6 0.25 10.1 0.30
Homemaker 8.4 0.14 8.0 0.20 9.6 0.16 9.4 0.37 9.5 0.19 10.0 0.21
Retired Persons 10.2 0.47 9.8 0.65 10.7 0.46 10.4 0.63 10.4 0.52 10.6 0.82
Daily Workers 9.2 0.24 9.1 0.40 10.1 0.25 10.1 0.40 10.1 0.31 10.3 0.29
Other category 7.9 0.19 7.2 0.23 8.8 0.21 7.9 0.21 8.8 0.26 8.6 0.30
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.1 0.15 7.4 0.19 9.0 0.16 8.3 0.18 9.4 0.19 9.4 0.32
25 to 30 years 8.5 0.17 8.1 0.21 9.5 0.19 9.1 0.31 9.5 0.22 9.9 0.25
30 to 35 years 8.5 0.18 8.1 0.22 9.5 0.20 9.2 0.37 9.6 0.24 10.1 0.23
35 to 40 years 8.8 0.20 8.4 0.26 9.7 0.21 9.6 0.48 9.6 0.26 10.0 0.33
40 to 45 years 8.8 0.20 8.2 0.33 9.6 0.21 9.4 0.51 9.3 0.27 9.7 0.44
45 to 50 years 8.9 0.21 8.7 0.33 10.1 0.24 10.2 0.25 9.7 0.30 10.2 0.26
50 to 55 years 9.2 0.30 8.8 0.52 10.0 0.32 9.8 0.57 10.1 0.36 10.2 0.35
55 to 60 years 9.5 0.29 9.4 0.36 10.6 0.32 10.5 0.24 10.4 0.38 10.7 0.41
60 years and above 9.5 0.29 9.3 0.69 10.3 0.32 10.1 0.37 9.9 0.37 10.1 0.45
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.6 0.27 6.7 0.46 8.9 0.37 7.8 0.45 8.5 0.48 8.3 0.61
Bengaluru 6.8 0.22 5.7 0.14 8.2 0.23 7.3 0.33 8.8 0.25 8.2 0.35
Bhopal 8.8 0.43 7.1 0.77 10.4 0.61 10.1 0.71 9.8 0.59 10.1 0.78
Bhubaneswar 9.0 0.42 8.9 1.22 10.9 0.46 10.5 0.53 10.7 0.73 10.0 1.00
Chennai 8.9 0.32 9.4 0.61 9.7 0.47 10.1 0.66 10.7 0.56 12.3 0.64
Delhi 8.8 0.21 8.7 0.30 9.5 0.23 9.8 0.47 9.6 0.24 10.1 0.31
Guwahati 9.2 0.52 9.9 0.39 9.6 0.63 10.4 0.69 9.5 0.73 10.7 0.98
Hyderabad 7.8 0.28 7.1 0.27 9.2 0.31 8.5 0.32 9.4 0.42 9.9 0.44
Jaipur 7.9 0.51 7.6 0.60 8.4 0.56 7.8 0.64 7.5 0.71 7.8 0.94
Jammu 9.7 1.37 9.2 1.36 9.2 1.14 9.2 2.00 8.7 1.67 8.8 2.52
Kolkata 11.0 0.35 10.5 0.22 11.8 0.35 11.9 1.03 11.6 0.35 12.2 1.02
Lucknow 9.0 0.46 8.8 0.75 9.7 0.51 9.3 0.71 9.3 0.45 9.0 0.72
Mumbai 9.0 0.26 8.3 0.23 9.8 0.29 9.6 0.44 9.3 0.39 10.1 0.32
Nagpur 8.0 0.42 7.5 0.71 9.2 0.47 8.5 0.65 9.2 0.74 9.9 0.79
Patna 6.8 0.23 6.7 0.36 7.4 0.30 7.4 0.44 7.2 0.39 7.6 0.39
Thiruvananthapuram 7.4 0.60 6.1 0.67 8.6 0.63 7.7 0.57 10.3 0.63 10.2 0.71
Chandigarh 10.6 0.53 10.0 0.37 10.8 0.48 10.4 0.27 10.8 0.55 10.6 0.42
Ranchi 8.9 0.41 8.3 0.33 9.1 0.39 8.6 0.31 8.4 0.65 9.0 0.78
Raipur 10.1 0.66 10.2 0.54 11.0 0.62 10.9 0.64 10.7 0.90 11.6 1.31
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Sep-23 9.0 0.09 8.4 0.11 9.7 0.09 9.1 0.17 9.3 0.11 9.9 0.17
Mar-24 8.7 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.09 9.0 0.16 9.5 0.10 9.8 0.19
May-24 8.7 0.10 8.0 0.13 9.8 0.10 9.2 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.9 0.19
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-23 62.0 64.3 60.7 63.2 66.3
Mar-24 65.4 66.1 61.2 64.6 66.8
May-24 67.4 67.2 63.2 67.2 68.0
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
One Year Ahead
Sep-23 69.8 71.2 66.8 72.2 71.5
Mar-24 74.6 73.6 68.3 75.0 74.2
May-24 76.1 74.5 69.5 76.8 75.0
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 2 27 18 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
2-<3 0 3 111 81 30 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 238
3-<4 0 6 19 119 59 49 17 27 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 300
4-<5 1 2 9 17 133 92 62 10 11 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 343
5-<6 1 2 18 31 41 444 132 157 73 5 79 6 1 0 0 12 1 1 1004
6-<7 0 1 2 6 6 9 205 113 87 20 26 2 8 6 1 15 8 0 515
7-<8 0 0 1 1 6 15 9 232 114 54 63 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 503
8-<9 0 0 1 0 5 14 4 11 198 88 147 12 14 7 3 7 2 1 514
9-<10 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 3 89 73 186 14 3 3 3 12 5 397
10-<11 0 1 7 5 1 27 10 5 24 3 433 68 198 51 18 193 66 2 1112
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 12 42 0 7 1 0 83
12-<13 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 34 12 31 25 2 0 114
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 9 6 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 1 3 0 12
15-<16 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 84 107 0 205
>=16 0 3 1 0 2 4 1 0 2 0 29 0 3 0 2 16 582 8 653
Total 9 45 189 268 287 670 441 562 515 260 863 304 289 128 64 372 791 19 6076

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 8 14 17 11 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
2-<3 49 3 39 53 50 27 7 2 1 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 238
3-<4 47 1 6 50 43 69 35 7 23 4 12 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 300
4-<5 55 1 3 5 61 75 61 34 30 4 7 1 4 0 0 1 1 0 343
5-<6 143 2 7 13 17 230 106 150 103 34 138 6 13 3 0 27 10 2 1004
6-<7 53 1 0 2 3 8 100 81 94 44 65 6 25 4 1 16 12 0 515
7-<8 47 0 2 1 1 9 2 125 79 81 98 11 27 3 4 10 3 0 503
8-<9 54 0 1 1 3 4 3 4 109 54 142 25 73 8 6 16 10 1 514
9-<10 13 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 19 33 71 38 152 29 6 15 13 4 397
10-<11 88 0 1 4 1 15 1 4 10 31 234 47 176 42 36 239 180 3 1112
11-<12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 11 10 36 5 3 0 83
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 22 9 35 30 6 0 114
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 9 7 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 6 0 12
15-<16 15 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 57 124 1 205
>=16 57 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 24 0 0 0 1 15 547 5 653
Total 645 23 79 141 179 446 315 413 470 287 803 148 506 112 128 441 922 18 6076

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 08, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.


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