प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मार्च 2019 चक्र के मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था और इसके परिणाम 5,829 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

i. दिसंबर 2018 में किए गए अंतिम सर्वेक्षण चक्र की अपेक्षा आगामी तीन महीने और आगामी एक वर्ष, दोनों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में प्रत्येक में 40 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) की गिरावट आईं है (चार्ट 1a, 1b, तालिका 2)।

ii. संचयी आधार पर मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में सितंबर 2018 के चक्र से अगले तीन महीनों के होरिज़न के लिए 160 आधार अंकों और अगले एक वर्ष के होरिज़न के लिए 170 आधार अंकों की गिरावट आईं है ।

iii. सर्वेक्षण के इस चक्र में परिवारों की मौजूदा मुद्रास्फीति धारणाओं और उनकी भविष्य के लिए अपेक्षाओं के बीच का अंतर भी कम हुआ है।

CHART1

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

iv. अगले तीन महीनों में खाद्य एवं गैर-खाद्य उत्पादों और उपभोक्ता टिकाऊ वस्तुओं की कीमतों में वृद्धि की उम्मीद करने वाले उत्तरदाताओं का अनुपात दिसम्बर 2018 चक्र के मुक़ाबले बढ़ा है (तालिका 1a)।

v. दिसम्बर 2018 चक्र में अगले एक वर्ष के लिए मूल्य स्तर में बदलाव को लेकर परिवारों की गुणात्मक अपेक्षाओं में हुआ सुधार कायम था।

vi. उत्तरदाताओं के पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के मुक़ाबले एक छोटे वर्ग का मानना था कि आने वाले एक वर्ष के होरिज़न में कीमतें मौजूदा दर से अधिक दर से बढ़ेंगी, जो मुख्य रूप से खाद्य कीमतों और आवास की लागत के संबंध में उनकी भावनाओं को दर्शाता है।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
General   Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.2 80.4 0.92 77.9 0.91 72.9 1.04 74.8 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 45.4 49.1 1.15 47.4 1.12 46.2 1.14 44.1 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 27.2 27.6 1.00 25.6 1.00 23.3 0.96 26.9 0.97
Price increase less than current rate 7.5 3.7 0.38 4.9 0.59 3.4 0.39 3.8 0.41
No changes in prices 17.8 17.4 0.88 19.2 0.87 21.2 0.98 21.9 0.98
Decline in prices 2.1 2.2 0.31 2.9 0.33 5.8 0.46 3.4 0.36
Food Product                  
Prices will increase 79.6 79.5 0.89 77.2 0.89 70.7 0.98 73.7 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 44.0 48.9 1.12 46.4 1.03 42.7 1.08 43.6 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 24.9 24.5 0.91 23.6 0.91 22.4 0.87 24.1 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 10.7 6.1 0.48 7.3 0.63 5.7 0.48 6.0 0.49
No changes in prices 15.4 15.5 0.82 16.9 0.81 17.2 0.79 17.5 0.84
Decline in prices 5.0 4.9 0.40 5.9 0.46 12.0 0.65 8.8 0.56
Non- Food Product                  
Prices will increase 75.0 78.9 0.87 75.8 0.90 67.6 1.00 71.3 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 39.6 47.5 1.11 45.2 1.07 40.8 1.08 41.0 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 25.4 25.3 0.91 24.1 0.94 21.6 0.89 24.5 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 10.0 6.1 0.48 6.5 0.61 5.3 0.47 5.7 0.48
No changes in prices 20.8 17.1 0.81 18.5 0.79 20.5 0.85 21.9 0.87
Decline in prices 4.2 4.0 0.38 5.8 0.48 11.9 0.63 6.8 0.47
Household Durables                  
Prices will increase 63.7 56.6 1.05 57.9 1.06 56.8 1.08 59.5 1.05
Price increase more than current rate 34.7 32.4 1.05 33.8 1.03 34.8 1.08 35.2 0.99
Price increase similar to current rate 20.7 19.5 0.80 18.9 0.80 17.9 0.85 19.3 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 8.3 4.7 0.41 5.2 0.50 4.1 0.39 5.0 0.41
No changes in prices 26.2 30.8 0.98 29.7 0.98 24.8 0.91 27.7 0.96
Decline in prices 10.1 12.5 0.66 12.4 0.66 18.4 0.77 12.8 0.62
Cost of Housing                  
Prices will increase 70.0 67.1 0.92 68.7 0.96 69.1 1.03 68.1 0.98
Price increase more than current rate 43.9 45.2 1.02 44.5 1.05 46.5 1.06 44.2 0.97
Price increase similar to current rate 18.8 17.9 0.78 19.0 0.83 18.2 0.79 19.5 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 7.3 4.0 0.40 5.2 0.51 4.5 0.41 4.4 0.41
No changes in prices 22.4 24.1 0.87 23.7 0.88 22.2 0.94 22.4 0.88
Decline in prices 7.7 8.8 0.59 7.6 0.54 8.6 0.57 9.5 0.60
Cost of Services                  
Prices will increase 70.2 67.7 1.04 68.2 0.99 65.7 1.10 66.4 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 38.3 41.8 1.15 40.4 1.06 40.2 1.11 39.2 1.00
Price increase similar to current rate 23.5 21.0 0.89 22.4 0.86 21.2 0.82 21.9 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 8.3 5.0 0.43 5.3 0.48 4.3 0.41 5.3 0.45
No changes in prices 26.6 29.6 1.01 28.8 0.97 28.2 1.02 28.9 0.99
Decline in prices 3.3 2.7 0.33 3.0 0.35 6.1 0.45 4.7 0.42
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses from the September 2018 round onwards. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Mar-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
General   Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 90.8 88.3 0.77 89.7 0.65 83.8 0.82 84.4 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 56.7 59.7 1.15 60.0 1.11 57.5 1.15 54.6 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 28.0 25.3 0.97 26.4 0.97 23.3 1.00 26.6 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 3.3 0.35 3.4 0.43 3.0 0.37 3.2 0.38
No changes in prices 7.1 9.1 0.69 7.6 0.57 11.3 0.73 12.6 0.83
Decline in prices 2.2 2.6 0.32 2.7 0.33 4.9 0.43 3.0 0.33
Food Product                  
Prices will increase 85.0 84.8 0.78 85.4 0.73 80.0 0.82 80.1 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 47.4 52.5 1.16 52.3 1.14 50.6 1.08 47.2 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 28.9 27.0 0.96 27.5 0.96 24.7 0.93 28.0 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 8.7 5.3 0.45 5.7 0.51 4.7 0.43 5.0 0.44
No changes in prices 10.2 9.7 0.64 9.4 0.60 12.1 0.68 14.0 0.76
Decline in prices 4.8 5.5 0.45 5.2 0.45 7.9 0.52 5.9 0.45
Non- Food Product                  
Prices will increase 80.0 82.3 0.79 82.4 0.78 76.4 0.92 78.2 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 44.2 51.0 1.18 51.6 1.10 47.5 1.09 45.7 1.05
Price increase similar to current rate 26.8 26.1 0.91 25.2 0.90 24.2 0.92 27.5 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 9.0 5.2 0.44 5.6 0.50 4.7 0.43 5.0 0.41
No changes in prices 15.8 13.1 0.70 12.7 0.68 15.8 0.78 16.9 0.80
Decline in prices 4.3 4.6 0.40 4.9 0.43 7.7 0.54 5.0 0.41
Household Durables                  
Prices will increase 71.1 67.5 0.97 70.1 0.98 66.9 1.02 68.3 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 40.1 40.7 1.10 43.0 1.10 42.0 1.09 41.3 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 23.4 22.0 0.83 22.0 0.88 20.4 0.84 22.6 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 7.7 4.8 0.42 5.1 0.47 4.5 0.40 4.4 0.41
No changes in prices 19.9 22.6 0.84 20.4 0.85 20.1 0.91 21.9 0.89
Decline in prices 9.0 10.0 0.58 9.6 0.61 13.0 0.69 9.8 0.57
Cost of Housing                  
Prices will increase 80.2 77.9 0.89 80.6 0.79 79.6 0.85 77.6 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 50.9 52.9 1.08 53.8 1.04 55.9 1.00 51.0 1.01
Price increase similar to current rate 22.5 21.0 0.87 22.5 0.91 19.8 0.78 22.9 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 6.8 4.0 0.38 4.3 0.44 3.9 0.39 3.8 0.36
No changes in prices 13.9 15.1 0.74 13.3 0.68 13.7 0.74 15.2 0.75
Decline in prices 5.9 7.0 0.52 6.1 0.50 6.7 0.50 7.2 0.53
Cost of Services                  
Prices will increase 82.6 82.0 0.81 83.3 0.75 77.9 0.88 78.8 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 45.3 49.7 1.18 52.2 1.11 49.0 1.11 47.5 1.02
Price increase similar to current rate 28.6 27.3 0.96 25.7 0.92 24.1 0.90 26.4 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 8.7 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.48 4.8 0.44 4.8 0.42
No changes in prices 14.9 15.6 0.76 13.5 0.68 17.1 0.82 17.4 0.81
Decline in prices 2.5 2.4 0.29 3.1 0.34 5.0 0.44 3.9 0.37
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses from the September 2018 round onwards. For earlier rounds, the results are based on sample proportions.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: March 2019
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.0 0.09 6.9 0.14 8.7 0.10 7.8 0.12 8.3 0.12 8.1 0.17
Gender-wise                        
Male 7.9 0.13 7.0 0.18 8.6 0.13 7.7 0.16 8.2 0.16 7.9 0.20
Female 8.1 0.13 7.1 0.18 9.0 0.13 8.2 0.17 8.6 0.16 8.5 0.21
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 7.4 0.61 6.1 0.48 8.1 0.82 6.5 0.56 8.1 0.81 7.6 0.75
Other Employees 8.2 0.18 7.1 0.22 8.8 0.19 7.9 0.21 8.3 0.23 8.1 0.33
Self Employed 7.6 0.19 6.7 0.30 8.3 0.20 7.4 0.22 7.9 0.24 7.8 0.28
Homemaker 8.2 0.14 7.1 0.20 9.1 0.15 8.3 0.19 8.8 0.19 8.7 0.24
Retired Persons 8.2 0.30 7.5 0.25 8.9 0.32 8.2 0.46 8.6 0.43 8.4 0.55
Daily Workers 8.1 0.22 7.1 0.28 9.0 0.22 8.1 0.31 8.5 0.28 8.5 0.47
Other category 7.5 0.23 6.3 0.28 8.2 0.23 7.3 0.24 7.9 0.28 7.7 0.33
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.3 0.15 6.1 0.18 7.9 0.17 7.0 0.23 7.5 0.22 7.3 0.32
25 to 30 years 8.0 0.19 6.8 0.28 8.8 0.19 7.9 0.23 8.4 0.23 8.3 0.27
30 to 35 years 7.9 0.19 6.8 0.26 8.7 0.19 7.9 0.25 8.5 0.24 8.3 0.33
35 to 40 years 8.1 0.20 7.1 0.24 8.8 0.20 8.0 0.27 8.5 0.24 8.4 0.33
40 to 45 years 7.9 0.22 6.9 0.33 8.7 0.23 7.8 0.26 8.2 0.26 7.9 0.35
45 to 50 years 8.3 0.21 7.3 0.24 9.0 0.22 8.4 0.31 8.1 0.28 8.1 0.41
50 to 55 years 8.5 0.30 7.3 0.29 9.4 0.31 8.2 0.39 8.8 0.36 8.4 0.42
55 to 60 years 8.4 0.29 7.5 0.31 9.1 0.30 8.3 0.63 8.3 0.36 8.0 0.65
60 years and above 8.4 0.23 7.7 0.29 9.2 0.25 8.5 0.43 8.9 0.31 8.8 0.55
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 9.8 0.45 9.5 0.81 10.9 0.44 10.6 0.57 9.7 0.50 10.1 0.51
Bengaluru 7.0 0.29 6.0 0.24 8.0 0.27 7.3 0.37 9.0 0.30 8.8 0.38
Bhopal 8.0 0.49 7.9 1.04 8.6 0.69 8.0 1.20 7.7 0.64 7.9 1.04
Bhubaneswar 4.5 0.38 4.4 0.42 5.6 0.58 5.4 0.44 5.8 1.14 5.9 0.85
Chennai 8.4 0.30 8.2 0.35 9.5 0.34 9.6 0.48 10.2 0.39 10.5 0.22
Delhi 7.3 0.18 6.3 0.26 7.7 0.21 6.8 0.29 6.8 0.33 6.2 0.38
Guwahati 4.4 0.53 4.1 0.72 5.4 0.45 5.0 0.38 4.8 0.41 5.0 0.38
Hyderabad 8.5 0.41 6.8 0.66 9.7 0.39 8.6 0.61 10.2 0.39 10.0 0.58
Jaipur 7.2 0.49 6.7 0.53 7.4 0.50 6.9 0.55 6.6 0.52 6.3 0.58
Kolkata 8.8 0.32 7.7 0.35 9.6 0.35 8.8 0.53 9.2 0.36 8.8 0.50
Lucknow 7.6 0.41 7.2 0.42 8.5 0.42 8.1 0.31 8.6 0.55 9.6 0.34
Mumbai 8.6 0.24 7.9 0.37 9.4 0.24 9.0 0.50 8.2 0.33 8.3 0.53
Nagpur 8.1 0.55 6.7 0.76 8.3 0.49 6.8 0.65 7.3 0.72 6.6 0.59
Patna 6.7 0.39 6.2 0.34 6.9 0.39 6.3 0.35 6.4 0.46 6.3 0.29
Thiruvananthapuram 6.7 0.47 5.6 0.38 8.3 0.53 7.5 0.75 10.1 0.67 10.4 0.89
Chandigarh 8.0 0.66 7.1 0.98 8.0 0.64 7.2 0.79 6.8 0.82 6.6 0.86
Ranchi 7.5 0.78 6.2 1.04 7.9 0.85 6.4 1.11 7.3 0.76 6.3 1.14
Raipur 7.3 0.50 6.3 0.62 7.1 0.49 6.2 0.65 4.3 0.79 2.4 1.65
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses for the March 2019 round.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Mar-18 8.2 -- 7.2 -- 8.6 -- 7.8 -- 8.9 -- 8.6 --
Sep-18 9.2 0.12 8.4 0.19 9.9 0.12 9.4 0.27 9.6 0.14 9.8 0.23
Nov-18 9.1 0.11 8.2 0.18 9.7 0.12 9.0 0.22 9.6 0.12 9.8 0.25
Dec-18 8.3 0.11 7.1 0.18 9.1 0.11 8.2 0.15 8.6 0.13 8.5 0.17
Mar-19 8.0 0.09 6.9 0.14 8.7 0.10 7.8 0.12 8.3 0.12 8.1 0.17
‘--‘ Calculation of Standard Error was initiated from the September 2018 round onwards.
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-18 63.7 63.2 55.6 57.8 62.7
Sep-18 64.4 65.3 52.8 58.6 64.3
Nov-18 65.6 66.8 56.5 61.4 66.2
Dec-18 62.9 64.0 55.3 62.4 64.3
Mar-19 62.6 62.3 54.9 58.8 63.4
One Year Ahead
Mar-18 69.0 66.3 59.6 64.3 69.2
Sep-18 72.2 71.5 60.0 66.5 71.4
Nov-18 73.5 72.3 62.7 67.7 73.2
Dec-18 72.5 71.7 62.5 70.3 72.9
Mar-19 70.2 68.8 61.8 66.0 69.9
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: March 2019
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 25 1 2 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42
1-<2 0 40 14 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
2-<3 3 14 176 62 48 22 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 329
3-<4 2 5 18 151 67 66 26 3 3 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 346
4-<5 1 0 13 24 272 88 64 11 10 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 486
5-<6 0 1 9 25 27 680 129 178 87 12 79 1 1 0 0 4 0 2 1235
6-<7 0 0 3 3 8 8 265 74 57 18 10 1 7 0 0 1 2 0 457
7-<8 0 1 0 1 6 13 9 265 99 78 50 1 2 1 3 0 1 0 530
8-<9 0 0 0 2 0 4 2 3 198 55 102 8 13 5 0 2 2 0 396
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 97 41 14 20 4 1 2 2 0 188
10-<11 2 1 2 0 3 20 3 7 7 6 423 38 117 34 7 126 47 2 845
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 31 9 7 2 6 7 0 67
12-<13 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 24 6 8 27 4 0 75
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 2 6 3 0 23
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 16 4 7 0 29
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 2 2 0 83 87 2 183
>=16 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 10 0 1 0 1 13 498 4 534
Total 33 64 238 276 439 915 499 548 469 268 730 96 199 71 40 274 660 10 5829
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: March 2019
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 23 3 3 2 2 4 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42
1-<2 16 22 5 11 0 2 4 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 64
2-<3 88 3 84 31 47 32 23 10 5 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 329
3-<4 66 0 5 78 30 66 38 18 17 8 14 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 346
4-<5 96 0 0 3 152 60 81 33 34 5 16 0 4 0 0 1 1 0 486
5-<6 191 0 2 11 16 398 90 156 101 38 185 3 17 2 1 15 7 2 1235
6-<7 53 0 0 2 3 4 156 58 73 36 38 9 16 3 2 2 2 0 457
7-<8 73 1 0 0 2 4 6 154 63 83 96 13 17 5 2 7 2 2 530
8-<9 47 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 96 46 125 14 31 9 4 8 10 1 396
9-<10 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 59 27 15 30 5 6 6 6 0 188
10-<11 104 0 0 0 0 4 1 6 5 10 266 23 87 37 24 154 121 3 845
11-<12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 7 7 5 14 8 0 67
12-<13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 15 5 4 19 19 0 75
13-<14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 4 5 0 23
14-<15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 8 0 29
15-<16 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 53 101 2 183
>=16 90 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 3 426 6 534
Total 926 30 99 140 252 576 402 445 398 287 785 93 228 82 59 295 716 16 5829
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा नियमित अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और अन्य आर्थिक संकेतकों का अनुपूरक होता है। सर्वेक्षण में उल्लिखित मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षाएं उत्तरदाताओं द्वारा दिए गए उत्तरों पर आधारित है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करती हैं। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति के आधिकारिक उपायों के लिए बेंचमार्क के रूप में नहीं माना जाना चाहिए।


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