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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने सितंबर 2024 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 1-10 सितंबर, 2024 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था, जिसमें 6,076 वैध प्रतिक्रियाएँ मिलीं, और महिला भागीदारी 52.6 प्रतिशत रही।

मुख्य विशेषताएँ:

  1. सर्वेक्षण के जुलाई 2024 दौर की तुलना में, परिवारों की वर्तमान मुद्रास्फीति की औसत धारणा 10 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) से घट कर 8.1 प्रतिशत हो गई; आगामी तीन महीने और एक वर्ष की अवधि के लिए मुद्रास्फीति पर उनकी अपेक्षाओं में क्रमश: 20 एवं 10 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) की कमी आई है [चार्ट 1(ए) और 1(बी); टेबल 3]।

  2. अल्पकालिक और एक वर्ष आगे दोनों अवधियों के लिए, सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति में वृद्धि की उम्मीद करने वाले उत्तरदाताओं का प्रतिशत पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर से कम हुआ है [टेबल 1 (ए) और 1 (बी)]।

  3. सभी उत्पाद समूहों में कीमत और मुद्रास्फीति का दबाव कम हुआ है [टेबल 1 (ए) और 1 (बी)]।

  4. महिला उत्तरदाताओं का मुद्रास्फीति पर आकलन तथा अपेक्षाएं अपने पुरुष समकक्षों की तुलना में थोड़ी कम रही [टेबल 2]।

Charts 1a and 1b

नोट: कृपया समय क्षृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-23 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 74.2 0.97 76.5 0.85 80.6 0.81 82.3 0.77 79.7 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 49.5 1.10 53.1 1.08 59.1 1.13 60.5 1.13 55.5 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.80 18.2 0.79 17.5 0.83 17.3 0.86 19.2 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.47 5.2 0.44 4.0 0.43 4.5 0.48 5.0 0.55
No changes in prices 20.7 0.88 19.6 0.80 16.6 0.77 14.6 0.71 17.9 0.85
Decline in prices 5.0 0.52 3.9 0.38 2.8 0.32 3.1 0.37 2.5 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.4 0.87 76.7 0.81 81.8 0.74 84.2 0.70 83.9 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 55.1 1.05 54.4 1.00 61.0 1.07 62.1 1.03 60.7 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 15.1 0.71 15.7 0.69 15.3 0.74 16.0 0.75 16.7 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.46 6.6 0.50 5.5 0.46 6.1 0.52 6.6 0.58
No changes in prices 13.2 0.68 15.1 0.68 12.1 0.64 10.2 0.57 11.2 0.67
Decline in prices 11.3 0.66 8.2 0.54 6.1 0.46 5.6 0.47 4.9 0.42
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 69.2 0.93 71.5 0.87 75.0 0.85 77.0 0.81 76.1 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 47.1 1.04 48.9 1.01 53.7 1.11 54.5 1.10 52.4 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.72 16.2 0.71 15.6 0.72 16.2 0.79 17.7 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.51 6.4 0.48 5.7 0.50 6.2 0.52 6.1 0.55
No changes in prices 20.5 0.77 20.9 0.80 19.3 0.78 17.6 0.74 19.1 0.85
Decline in prices 10.3 0.66 7.7 0.51 5.7 0.43 5.4 0.48 4.7 0.42
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 62.2 0.99 64.7 0.92 68.2 0.94 68.2 0.97 64.9 1.03
Price increase more than current rate 43.2 1.05 43.8 1.01 48.3 1.10 49.6 1.09 45.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 14.1 0.65 15.5 0.70 15.2 0.74 13.9 0.73 14.2 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.43 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.48
No changes in prices 26.4 0.88 26.1 0.85 23.4 0.86 23.4 0.88 25.2 0.97
Decline in prices 11.3 0.64 9.2 0.57 8.5 0.53 8.4 0.58 9.8 0.55
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 75.1 0.95 76.9 0.83 80.4 0.81 78.6 0.84 77.7 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 54.3 1.09 55.8 1.07 59.3 1.06 59.6 1.07 56.9 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.66 16.4 0.74 16.7 0.77 14.8 0.78 16.3 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.43 4.7 0.40 4.3 0.44 4.1 0.45 4.5 0.48
No changes in prices 20.9 0.90 19.6 0.78 16.7 0.77 18.2 0.78 19.1 0.87
Decline in prices 4.1 0.46 3.5 0.36 3.0 0.34 3.2 0.37 3.3 0.35
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 63.0 1.04 65.0 0.97 68.6 0.98 71.0 0.95 66.9 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 44.7 1.05 45.5 1.09 49.2 1.12 52.7 1.12 46.9 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 14.5 0.68 14.4 0.70 14.4 0.68 13.6 0.70 15.5 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.40 5.2 0.45 5.0 0.46 4.6 0.46 4.5 0.46
No changes in prices 31.2 0.99 30.1 0.92 27.3 0.94 25.3 0.90 29.8 1.01
Decline in prices 5.7 0.54 4.8 0.43 4.1 0.39 3.7 0.38 3.2 0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-23 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 86.2 0.74 87.4 0.67 89.1 0.64 90.6 0.60 89.4 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 62.2 1.05 64.7 1.08 67.9 1.14 68.6 1.12 66.5 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.9 0.81 18.5 0.83 17.8 0.90 18.3 0.86 18.6 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.43 4.2 0.41 3.5 0.41 3.7 0.43 4.4 0.50
No changes in prices 9.6 0.59 9.7 0.59 7.9 0.56 6.6 0.50 8.6 0.67
Decline in prices 4.2 0.48 2.9 0.35 3.0 0.34 2.9 0.35 2.0 0.28
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.8 0.80 84.5 0.73 86.0 0.68 87.1 0.65 86.6 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 57.9 1.09 59.5 1.10 62.8 1.10 63.5 1.09 61.8 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.82 19.8 0.80 18.3 0.86 19.0 0.84 19.2 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.48 5.2 0.45 4.9 0.49 4.6 0.48 5.6 0.55
No changes in prices 9.6 0.58 10.1 0.61 9.3 0.58 7.9 0.52 9.7 0.66
Decline in prices 7.6 0.60 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.39 5.0 0.43 3.8 0.38
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 78.9 0.83 81.1 0.76 82.1 0.79 82.9 0.77 82.4 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 54.7 1.05 56.3 1.09 59.8 1.13 61.2 1.12 58.3 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.78 19.5 0.82 17.3 0.80 16.9 0.80 18.5 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.44 5.3 0.47 5.1 0.47 4.8 0.46 5.6 0.57
No changes in prices 13.9 0.66 14.1 0.69 12.9 0.68 12.4 0.64 14.0 0.77
Decline in prices 7.2 0.57 4.8 0.44 5.0 0.44 4.7 0.44 3.6 0.37
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 73.9 0.91 74.5 0.83 76.8 0.83 77.4 0.83 76.2 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 52.4 1.04 52.3 1.06 56.0 1.12 56.6 1.12 54.5 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.71 17.3 0.76 16.4 0.79 16.1 0.76 16.5 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.42 5.0 0.45 4.4 0.44 4.8 0.49 5.1 0.50
No changes in prices 18.5 0.76 18.1 0.76 16.6 0.72 16.3 0.73 17.3 0.79
Decline in prices 7.7 0.56 7.4 0.51 6.6 0.47 6.3 0.48 6.5 0.49
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 86.1 0.70 87.2 0.66 89.2 0.64 88.2 0.66 87.7 0.74
Price increase more than current rate 65.0 1.04 65.6 1.01 68.7 1.02 66.6 1.05 65.9 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 16.9 0.73 17.2 0.74 16.3 0.75 17.7 0.80 17.0 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.42 4.4 0.39 4.2 0.45 3.9 0.43 4.8 0.53
No changes in prices 10.1 0.56 9.5 0.57 8.4 0.57 8.6 0.55 8.9 0.60
Decline in prices 3.8 0.43 3.3 0.36 2.4 0.31 3.2 0.36 3.4 0.40
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 78.4 0.86 80.1 0.78 82.1 0.77 83.4 0.76 82.2 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 56.2 1.05 56.3 1.08 58.9 1.13 61.6 1.17 58.8 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 18.0 0.70 18.9 0.78 18.6 0.83 17.4 0.82 17.9 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.43 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44 4.4 0.45 5.5 0.57
No changes in prices 17.1 0.74 16.0 0.71 14.7 0.71 13.2 0.67 15.3 0.80
Decline in prices 4.4 0.48 3.9 0.38 3.2 0.34 3.4 0.39 2.4 0.30
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-24
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.17 9.7 0.14 9.4 0.32 9.7 0.16 10.1 0.16
Female 8.5 0.12 8.0 0.17 9.5 0.13 9.2 0.31 9.5 0.16 10.0 0.18
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.0 0.56 8.6 0.80 9.7 0.61 9.4 0.92 10.4 0.66 10.3 1.17
Other Employees 8.6 0.16 8.1 0.21 9.5 0.17 9.0 0.28 9.6 0.20 10.0 0.23
Self Employed 8.9 0.19 8.4 0.24 9.7 0.20 9.8 0.40 9.6 0.25 10.1 0.30
Homemaker 8.4 0.14 8.0 0.20 9.6 0.16 9.4 0.37 9.5 0.19 10.0 0.21
Retired Persons 10.2 0.47 9.8 0.65 10.7 0.46 10.4 0.63 10.4 0.52 10.6 0.82
Daily Workers 9.2 0.24 9.1 0.40 10.1 0.25 10.1 0.40 10.1 0.31 10.3 0.29
Other category 7.9 0.19 7.2 0.23 8.8 0.21 7.9 0.21 8.8 0.26 8.6 0.30
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.1 0.15 7.4 0.19 9.0 0.16 8.3 0.18 9.4 0.19 9.4 0.32
25 to 30 years 8.5 0.17 8.1 0.21 9.5 0.19 9.1 0.31 9.5 0.22 9.9 0.25
30 to 35 years 8.5 0.18 8.1 0.22 9.5 0.20 9.2 0.37 9.6 0.24 10.1 0.23
35 to 40 years 8.8 0.20 8.4 0.26 9.7 0.21 9.6 0.48 9.6 0.26 10.0 0.33
40 to 45 years 8.8 0.20 8.2 0.33 9.6 0.21 9.4 0.51 9.3 0.27 9.7 0.44
45 to 50 years 8.9 0.21 8.7 0.33 10.1 0.24 10.2 0.25 9.7 0.30 10.2 0.26
50 to 55 years 9.2 0.30 8.8 0.52 10.0 0.32 9.8 0.57 10.1 0.36 10.2 0.35
55 to 60 years 9.5 0.29 9.4 0.36 10.6 0.32 10.5 0.24 10.4 0.38 10.7 0.41
60 years and above 9.5 0.29 9.3 0.69 10.3 0.32 10.1 0.37 9.9 0.37 10.1 0.45
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.6 0.27 6.7 0.46 8.9 0.37 7.8 0.45 8.5 0.48 8.3 0.61
Bengaluru 6.8 0.22 5.7 0.14 8.2 0.23 7.3 0.33 8.8 0.25 8.2 0.35
Bhopal 8.8 0.43 7.1 0.77 10.4 0.61 10.1 0.71 9.8 0.59 10.1 0.78
Bhubaneswar 9.0 0.42 8.9 1.22 10.9 0.46 10.5 0.53 10.7 0.73 10.0 1.00
Chennai 8.9 0.32 9.4 0.61 9.7 0.47 10.1 0.66 10.7 0.56 12.3 0.64
Delhi 8.8 0.21 8.7 0.30 9.5 0.23 9.8 0.47 9.6 0.24 10.1 0.31
Guwahati 9.2 0.52 9.9 0.39 9.6 0.63 10.4 0.69 9.5 0.73 10.7 0.98
Hyderabad 7.8 0.28 7.1 0.27 9.2 0.31 8.5 0.32 9.4 0.42 9.9 0.44
Jaipur 7.9 0.51 7.6 0.60 8.4 0.56 7.8 0.64 7.5 0.71 7.8 0.94
Jammu 9.7 1.37 9.2 1.36 9.2 1.14 9.2 2.00 8.7 1.67 8.8 2.52
Kolkata 11.0 0.35 10.5 0.22 11.8 0.35 11.9 1.03 11.6 0.35 12.2 1.02
Lucknow 9.0 0.46 8.8 0.75 9.7 0.51 9.3 0.71 9.3 0.45 9.0 0.72
Mumbai 9.0 0.26 8.3 0.23 9.8 0.29 9.6 0.44 9.3 0.39 10.1 0.32
Nagpur 8.0 0.42 7.5 0.71 9.2 0.47 8.5 0.65 9.2 0.74 9.9 0.79
Patna 6.8 0.23 6.7 0.36 7.4 0.30 7.4 0.44 7.2 0.39 7.6 0.39
Thiruvananthapuram 7.4 0.60 6.1 0.67 8.6 0.63 7.7 0.57 10.3 0.63 10.2 0.71
Chandigarh 10.6 0.53 10.0 0.37 10.8 0.48 10.4 0.27 10.8 0.55 10.6 0.42
Ranchi 8.9 0.41 8.3 0.33 9.1 0.39 8.6 0.31 8.4 0.65 9.0 0.78
Raipur 10.1 0.66 10.2 0.54 11.0 0.62 10.9 0.64 10.7 0.90 11.6 1.31
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Sep-23 9.0 0.09 8.4 0.11 9.7 0.09 9.1 0.17 9.3 0.11 9.9 0.17
Mar-24 8.7 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.09 9.0 0.16 9.5 0.10 9.8 0.19
May-24 8.7 0.10 8.0 0.13 9.8 0.10 9.2 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.9 0.19
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-23 62.0 64.3 60.7 63.2 66.3
Mar-24 65.4 66.1 61.2 64.6 66.8
May-24 67.4 67.2 63.2 67.2 68.0
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
One Year Ahead
Sep-23 69.8 71.2 66.8 72.2 71.5
Mar-24 74.6 73.6 68.3 75.0 74.2
May-24 76.1 74.5 69.5 76.8 75.0
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 2 27 18 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
2-<3 0 3 111 81 30 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 238
3-<4 0 6 19 119 59 49 17 27 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 300
4-<5 1 2 9 17 133 92 62 10 11 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 343
5-<6 1 2 18 31 41 444 132 157 73 5 79 6 1 0 0 12 1 1 1004
6-<7 0 1 2 6 6 9 205 113 87 20 26 2 8 6 1 15 8 0 515
7-<8 0 0 1 1 6 15 9 232 114 54 63 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 503
8-<9 0 0 1 0 5 14 4 11 198 88 147 12 14 7 3 7 2 1 514
9-<10 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 3 89 73 186 14 3 3 3 12 5 397
10-<11 0 1 7 5 1 27 10 5 24 3 433 68 198 51 18 193 66 2 1112
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 12 42 0 7 1 0 83
12-<13 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 34 12 31 25 2 0 114
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 9 6 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 1 3 0 12
15-<16 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 84 107 0 205
>=16 0 3 1 0 2 4 1 0 2 0 29 0 3 0 2 16 582 8 653
Total 9 45 189 268 287 670 441 562 515 260 863 304 289 128 64 372 791 19 6076

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 8 14 17 11 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
2-<3 49 3 39 53 50 27 7 2 1 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 238
3-<4 47 1 6 50 43 69 35 7 23 4 12 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 300
4-<5 55 1 3 5 61 75 61 34 30 4 7 1 4 0 0 1 1 0 343
5-<6 143 2 7 13 17 230 106 150 103 34 138 6 13 3 0 27 10 2 1004
6-<7 53 1 0 2 3 8 100 81 94 44 65 6 25 4 1 16 12 0 515
7-<8 47 0 2 1 1 9 2 125 79 81 98 11 27 3 4 10 3 0 503
8-<9 54 0 1 1 3 4 3 4 109 54 142 25 73 8 6 16 10 1 514
9-<10 13 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 19 33 71 38 152 29 6 15 13 4 397
10-<11 88 0 1 4 1 15 1 4 10 31 234 47 176 42 36 239 180 3 1112
11-<12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 11 10 36 5 3 0 83
12-<13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 22 9 35 30 6 0 114
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 9 7 0 20
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 6 0 12
15-<16 15 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 57 124 1 205
>=16 57 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 24 0 0 0 1 15 547 5 653
Total 645 23 79 141 179 446 315 413 470 287 803 148 506 112 128 441 922 18 6076

1 यह सर्वेक्षण भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के द्वारा द्विमाही अंतरालों पर संचालित किया जाता है; यह निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबावों पर उत्तरदाताओं से प्राप्त निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा मान्यता प्राप्त हों।

2 मुद्रास्फीति प्रत्याशाओं के सभी अनुमान मीडियन के रूप में दिए गए हैं, जब तक अन्यथा न कहा गया हो।

3 पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर अगस्त 08, 2024 को जारी किए गए थे। सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर के डेटा, बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल (वेबलिंक: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) पर 'यूनिट-स्तर डेटा' शीर्षक के अंतर्गत उपलब्ध हैं।

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