आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने नवम्बर 2024 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 2-11 नवम्बर, 2024 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था, जिसमें 6,091 वैध प्रतिक्रियाएँ मिलीं, और महिला भागीदारी 52.9 प्रतिशत रही।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Nov-23 |
May-24 |
Jul-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
74.1 |
0.93 |
80.6 |
0.81 |
82.3 |
0.77 |
79.7 |
0.89 |
79.3 |
0.89 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.8 |
1.13 |
59.1 |
1.13 |
60.5 |
1.13 |
55.5 |
1.21 |
53.6 |
1.24 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.1 |
0.85 |
17.5 |
0.83 |
17.3 |
0.86 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
19.9 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.42 |
4.0 |
0.43 |
4.5 |
0.48 |
5.0 |
0.55 |
5.8 |
0.49 |
No changes in prices |
21.2 |
0.88 |
16.6 |
0.77 |
14.6 |
0.71 |
17.9 |
0.85 |
18.7 |
0.87 |
Decline in prices |
4.7 |
0.45 |
2.8 |
0.32 |
3.1 |
0.37 |
2.5 |
0.32 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.5 |
0.90 |
81.8 |
0.74 |
84.2 |
0.70 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.7 |
1.04 |
61.0 |
1.07 |
62.1 |
1.03 |
60.7 |
1.07 |
60.7 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.1 |
0.74 |
15.3 |
0.74 |
16.0 |
0.75 |
16.7 |
0.77 |
17.0 |
0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.8 |
0.47 |
5.5 |
0.46 |
6.1 |
0.52 |
6.6 |
0.58 |
6.2 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
15.5 |
0.76 |
12.1 |
0.64 |
10.2 |
0.57 |
11.2 |
0.67 |
11.1 |
0.64 |
Decline in prices |
9.0 |
0.57 |
6.1 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.47 |
4.9 |
0.42 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
73.8 |
0.87 |
75.0 |
0.85 |
77.0 |
0.81 |
76.1 |
0.92 |
75.9 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.4 |
1.04 |
53.7 |
1.11 |
54.5 |
1.10 |
52.4 |
1.11 |
51.7 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.1 |
0.72 |
15.6 |
0.72 |
16.2 |
0.79 |
17.7 |
0.78 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.3 |
0.46 |
5.7 |
0.50 |
6.2 |
0.52 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
6.3 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
19.5 |
0.77 |
19.3 |
0.78 |
17.6 |
0.74 |
19.1 |
0.85 |
19.9 |
0.85 |
Decline in prices |
6.7 |
0.48 |
5.7 |
0.43 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
4.7 |
0.42 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
63.8 |
0.98 |
68.2 |
0.94 |
68.2 |
0.97 |
64.9 |
1.03 |
66.5 |
1.00 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.5 |
1.02 |
48.3 |
1.10 |
49.6 |
1.09 |
45.9 |
1.11 |
46.3 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
13.4 |
0.68 |
15.2 |
0.74 |
13.9 |
0.73 |
14.2 |
0.71 |
14.5 |
0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.43 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.48 |
5.7 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
25.9 |
0.89 |
23.4 |
0.86 |
23.4 |
0.88 |
25.2 |
0.97 |
24.8 |
0.89 |
Decline in prices |
10.3 |
0.59 |
8.5 |
0.53 |
8.4 |
0.58 |
9.8 |
0.55 |
8.7 |
0.55 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
76.8 |
0.88 |
80.4 |
0.81 |
78.6 |
0.84 |
77.7 |
0.88 |
78.9 |
0.85 |
Price increase more than current rate |
57.2 |
1.09 |
59.3 |
1.06 |
59.6 |
1.07 |
56.9 |
1.11 |
57.4 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.5 |
0.72 |
16.7 |
0.77 |
14.8 |
0.78 |
16.3 |
0.75 |
16.4 |
0.76 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.1 |
0.37 |
4.3 |
0.44 |
4.1 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.48 |
5.1 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
20.0 |
0.83 |
16.7 |
0.77 |
18.2 |
0.78 |
19.1 |
0.87 |
18.2 |
0.79 |
Decline in prices |
3.2 |
0.36 |
3.0 |
0.34 |
3.2 |
0.37 |
3.3 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
63.3 |
0.96 |
68.6 |
0.98 |
71.0 |
0.95 |
66.9 |
1.04 |
66.3 |
0.99 |
Price increase more than current rate |
43.7 |
1.09 |
49.2 |
1.12 |
52.7 |
1.12 |
46.9 |
1.15 |
46.6 |
1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.5 |
0.70 |
14.4 |
0.68 |
13.6 |
0.70 |
15.5 |
0.73 |
14.8 |
0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.40 |
5.0 |
0.46 |
4.6 |
0.46 |
4.5 |
0.46 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
31.5 |
0.93 |
27.3 |
0.94 |
25.3 |
0.90 |
29.8 |
1.01 |
30.7 |
0.98 |
Decline in prices |
5.1 |
0.48 |
4.1 |
0.39 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
3.2 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Nov-23 |
May-24 |
Jul-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
89.0 |
0.65 |
89.1 |
0.64 |
90.6 |
0.60 |
89.4 |
0.73 |
89.6 |
0.67 |
Price increase more than current rate |
67.2 |
1.07 |
67.9 |
1.14 |
68.6 |
1.12 |
66.5 |
1.20 |
66.9 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.4 |
0.87 |
17.8 |
0.90 |
18.3 |
0.86 |
18.6 |
0.91 |
18.6 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.4 |
0.38 |
3.5 |
0.41 |
3.7 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.50 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
8.4 |
0.56 |
7.9 |
0.56 |
6.6 |
0.50 |
8.6 |
0.67 |
8.2 |
0.62 |
Decline in prices |
2.7 |
0.35 |
3.0 |
0.34 |
2.9 |
0.35 |
2.0 |
0.28 |
2.2 |
0.30 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
86.1 |
0.71 |
86.0 |
0.68 |
87.1 |
0.65 |
86.6 |
0.78 |
89.0 |
0.66 |
Price increase more than current rate |
63.2 |
1.06 |
62.8 |
1.10 |
63.5 |
1.09 |
61.8 |
1.20 |
64.4 |
1.13 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.4 |
0.83 |
18.3 |
0.86 |
19.0 |
0.84 |
19.2 |
0.85 |
19.3 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.5 |
0.41 |
4.9 |
0.49 |
4.6 |
0.48 |
5.6 |
0.55 |
5.3 |
0.48 |
No changes in prices |
8.8 |
0.56 |
9.3 |
0.58 |
7.9 |
0.52 |
9.7 |
0.66 |
7.3 |
0.53 |
Decline in prices |
5.1 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.39 |
5.0 |
0.43 |
3.8 |
0.38 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
82.6 |
0.78 |
82.1 |
0.79 |
82.9 |
0.77 |
82.4 |
0.85 |
81.9 |
0.81 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.7 |
1.09 |
59.8 |
1.13 |
61.2 |
1.12 |
58.3 |
1.20 |
56.7 |
1.19 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.4 |
0.80 |
17.3 |
0.80 |
16.9 |
0.80 |
18.5 |
0.83 |
19.5 |
0.84 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.5 |
0.42 |
5.1 |
0.47 |
4.8 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.57 |
5.6 |
0.48 |
No changes in prices |
12.9 |
0.65 |
12.9 |
0.68 |
12.4 |
0.64 |
14.0 |
0.77 |
14.7 |
0.76 |
Decline in prices |
4.5 |
0.43 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.4 |
0.36 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.5 |
0.89 |
76.8 |
0.83 |
77.4 |
0.83 |
76.2 |
0.93 |
76.8 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.3 |
1.07 |
56.0 |
1.12 |
56.6 |
1.12 |
54.5 |
1.16 |
54.8 |
1.18 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
0.77 |
16.4 |
0.79 |
16.1 |
0.76 |
16.5 |
0.79 |
16.9 |
0.76 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.9 |
0.39 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
4.8 |
0.49 |
5.1 |
0.50 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
17.7 |
0.76 |
16.6 |
0.72 |
16.3 |
0.73 |
17.3 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.81 |
Decline in prices |
6.8 |
0.50 |
6.6 |
0.47 |
6.3 |
0.48 |
6.5 |
0.49 |
5.6 |
0.46 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
87.9 |
0.68 |
89.2 |
0.64 |
88.2 |
0.66 |
87.7 |
0.74 |
88.8 |
0.70 |
Price increase more than current rate |
68.5 |
1.02 |
68.7 |
1.02 |
66.6 |
1.05 |
65.9 |
1.07 |
66.7 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
0.78 |
16.3 |
0.75 |
17.7 |
0.80 |
17.0 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.1 |
0.36 |
4.2 |
0.45 |
3.9 |
0.43 |
4.8 |
0.53 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
9.4 |
0.61 |
8.4 |
0.57 |
8.6 |
0.55 |
8.9 |
0.60 |
8.7 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
2.7 |
0.34 |
2.4 |
0.31 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
3.4 |
0.40 |
2.5 |
0.30 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.8 |
0.81 |
82.1 |
0.77 |
83.4 |
0.76 |
82.2 |
0.85 |
81.7 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
59.2 |
1.08 |
58.9 |
1.13 |
61.6 |
1.17 |
58.8 |
1.18 |
58.4 |
1.19 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.6 |
0.80 |
18.6 |
0.83 |
17.4 |
0.82 |
17.9 |
0.80 |
18.3 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.0 |
0.40 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
4.4 |
0.45 |
5.5 |
0.57 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
16.3 |
0.74 |
14.7 |
0.71 |
13.2 |
0.67 |
15.3 |
0.80 |
15.7 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
2.9 |
0.36 |
3.2 |
0.34 |
3.4 |
0.39 |
2.4 |
0.30 |
2.6 |
0.32 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |