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आज भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक ने जुलाई 2020 चक्र के उपभोक्ता विश्वास सर्वेक्षण (CCS)1 के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविद-19 महामारी के चलते यह सर्वेक्षण 13 बड़े शहरों – अहमदाबाद, बेंगलुरु, भोपाल, चेन्नई, दिल्ली, गुवाहाटी, हैदराबाद, जयपुर, कोलकाता, लखनऊ, मुंबई, पटना और तिरुवनंतपुरम में जुलाई 1-12, 2020 के बीच टेलीफोनिक साक्षात्कार के द्वारा आयोजित किया गया था। इसमें सामान्य आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य, समग्र मूल्य स्थिति और पारिवारिक इकाइयों की आय और व्यय के संबंध में 5,342 पारिवारिक इकाइयों की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं के लिए प्रत्युत्तर प्राप्त किए गए।
विशेष :
I. वर्तमान स्थिति सूचकांक (CSI) के अब तक के अपने सर्वाधिक निम्न स्तर पर रहने के परिणामस्वरूप जुलाई 2020 में उपभोक्ता विश्वास में भारी गिरावट देखी गयी ; हालांकि, भविष्य की प्रत्याशाओं का सूचकांक (FEI)2 सकारात्मक क्षेत्र में वापस आ गया, जो आने वाले वर्ष में हालातों में सुधार के संकेत दे रहा है (चार्ट 1)।
नोट: कृपया समय शृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।
II. मौजूदा आर्थिक स्थिति, रोजगार परिदृश्य और खुद की आय के बारे में उपभोक्ताओं की धारणा मई 2020 के मुकाबले महत्वपूर्ण रूप से कमज़ोर थी (तालिका 1, 2 और 5); तथापि, पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के मुकाबले आगामी वर्ष हेतु इन मापदंडों के लिए उत्तरदाता कुछ हद तक आशावादी थे।
III. अधिकांश उत्तरदाताओं ने विवेकाधीन खर्च में कमी की सूचना दी, यद्यपि पिछले एक वर्ष के दौरान उनका कुल खर्च बढ़ा था; वे आगामी वर्ष में भी अननिवार्य खर्च में वृद्धि की आशा नहीं करते (तालिका 6, 7 और 8)।
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
37.4 |
24.2 |
38.4 |
-1.0 |
59.4 |
16.0 |
24.6 |
34.8 |
| Sep-19 |
33.5 |
18.6 |
47.9 |
-14.4 |
53.2 |
15.0 |
31.8 |
21.4 |
| Nov-19 |
30.0 |
18.4 |
51.6 |
-21.6 |
48.9 |
16.5 |
34.7 |
14.2 |
| Jan-20 |
27.1 |
18.0 |
54.9 |
-27.8 |
48.8 |
14.3 |
36.9 |
11.9 |
| Mar-20 |
28.4 |
19.3 |
52.3 |
-23.9 |
49.8 |
15.6 |
34.7 |
15.1 |
| May-20 |
14.4 |
11.2 |
74.4 |
-60.0 |
39.6 |
9.0 |
51.4 |
-11.7 |
| Jul-20 |
11.9 |
10.3 |
77.8 |
-65.9 |
44.3 |
13.5 |
42.2 |
2.1 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Improved |
Remained Same |
Worsened |
Net Response |
Will Improve |
Will Remain Same |
Will Worsen |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
32.5 |
21.9 |
45.6 |
-13.1 |
56.7 |
17.5 |
25.8 |
30.9 |
| Sep-19 |
28.0 |
19.5 |
52.5 |
-24.5 |
51.2 |
15.4 |
33.4 |
17.8 |
| Nov-19 |
24.4 |
18.1 |
57.5 |
-33.1 |
46.3 |
17.7 |
36.0 |
10.3 |
| Jan-20 |
24.6 |
17.8 |
57.7 |
-33.1 |
48.4 |
16.3 |
35.4 |
13.0 |
| Mar-20 |
25.2 |
19.1 |
55.7 |
-30.5 |
48.8 |
17.1 |
34.1 |
14.7 |
| May-20 |
19.2 |
13.4 |
67.4 |
-48.2 |
41.5 |
11.1 |
47.4 |
-5.9 |
| Jul-20 |
13.0 |
8.9 |
78.1 |
-65.1 |
48.6 |
13.3 |
38.2 |
10.4 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.0 |
3.3 |
-78.4 |
73.9 |
16.1 |
10.0 |
-63.9 |
| Sep-19 |
86.1 |
10.6 |
3.3 |
-82.8 |
75.9 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
-65.6 |
| Nov-19 |
86.8 |
10.2 |
2.9 |
-83.9 |
78.0 |
14.1 |
7.9 |
-70.1 |
| Jan-20 |
90.6 |
7.6 |
1.9 |
-88.7 |
76.9 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
-66.7 |
| Mar-20 |
87.2 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
-84.6 |
78.1 |
14.2 |
7.7 |
-70.4 |
| May-20 |
79.1 |
17.5 |
3.4 |
-75.8 |
75.8 |
14.8 |
9.4 |
-66.4 |
| Jul-20 |
79.7 |
16.7 |
3.6 |
-76.2 |
71.6 |
18.3 |
10.1 |
-61.5 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
72.5 |
22.3 |
5.2 |
-67.3 |
77.8 |
18.0 |
4.1 |
-73.7 |
| Sep-19 |
74.2 |
19.5 |
6.3 |
-67.9 |
77.9 |
16.1 |
6.1 |
-71.8 |
| Nov-19 |
77.2 |
17.4 |
5.5 |
-71.7 |
77.3 |
17.3 |
5.4 |
-71.9 |
| Jan-20 |
84.9 |
11.2 |
4.0 |
-80.9 |
80.3 |
14.7 |
5.0 |
-75.3 |
| Mar-20 |
80.8 |
15.7 |
3.5 |
-77.3 |
75.6 |
20.3 |
4.1 |
-71.5 |
| May-20 |
74.8 |
18.6 |
6.6 |
-68.2 |
73.4 |
19.5 |
7.1 |
-66.3 |
| Jul-20 |
79.8 |
15.6 |
4.5 |
-75.3 |
76.4 |
18.6 |
5.0 |
-71.4 |
| *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
25.8 |
51.3 |
22.9 |
2.9 |
55.4 |
37.7 |
6.9 |
48.5 |
| Sep-19 |
25.0 |
48.3 |
26.7 |
-1.7 |
53.0 |
37.4 |
9.6 |
43.4 |
| Nov-19 |
24.1 |
49.2 |
26.7 |
-2.6 |
52.8 |
38.9 |
8.3 |
44.5 |
| Jan-20 |
21.9 |
51.2 |
26.9 |
-5.0 |
51.9 |
38.9 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
| Mar-20 |
22.7 |
52.4 |
24.9 |
-2.2 |
52.0 |
40.2 |
7.8 |
44.2 |
| May-20 |
12.6 |
34.0 |
53.4 |
-40.8 |
39.5 |
39.1 |
21.4 |
18.1 |
| Jul-20 |
8.3 |
28.9 |
62.8 |
-54.5 |
43.5 |
39.3 |
17.2 |
26.3 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
71.7 |
25.0 |
3.4 |
68.3 |
76.8 |
20.1 |
3.2 |
73.6 |
| Sep-19 |
74.1 |
22.0 |
3.8 |
70.3 |
77.0 |
19.0 |
4.0 |
73.0 |
| Nov-19 |
73.2 |
23.4 |
3.4 |
69.8 |
77.4 |
19.0 |
3.6 |
73.8 |
| Jan-20 |
76.3 |
20.5 |
3.2 |
73.1 |
78.7 |
17.3 |
4.0 |
74.7 |
| Mar-20 |
72.6 |
24.0 |
3.4 |
69.2 |
75.8 |
20.7 |
3.5 |
72.3 |
| May-20 |
56.1 |
31.0 |
12.9 |
43.2 |
64.3 |
27.0 |
8.7 |
55.6 |
| Jul-20 |
48.1 |
34.7 |
17.2 |
30.8 |
60.2 |
29.2 |
10.6 |
49.6 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
81.7 |
15.7 |
2.6 |
79.1 |
82.9 |
14.3 |
2.8 |
80.1 |
| Sep-19 |
83.8 |
13.6 |
2.6 |
81.2 |
83.0 |
13.7 |
3.3 |
79.7 |
| Nov-19 |
83.6 |
13.6 |
2.7 |
80.9 |
83.0 |
13.9 |
3.1 |
79.9 |
| Jan-20 |
85.3 |
12.2 |
2.6 |
82.7 |
83.7 |
12.9 |
3.4 |
80.3 |
| Mar-20 |
83.0 |
14.6 |
2.4 |
80.6 |
82.1 |
15.0 |
2.9 |
79.2 |
| May-20 |
69.3 |
20.9 |
9.8 |
59.5 |
73.0 |
20.6 |
6.4 |
66.7 |
| Jul-20 |
64.0 |
23.9 |
12.1 |
51.9 |
69.4 |
22.9 |
7.7 |
61.7 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items |
| (Percentage responses) |
| Survey Round |
Current Perception |
One year ahead Expectation |
| Increased |
Remained Same |
Decreased |
Net Response |
Will Increase |
Will Remain Same |
Will Decrease |
Net Response |
| Jul-19 |
31.0 |
44.9 |
24.1 |
6.9 |
36.2 |
42.2 |
21.6 |
14.6 |
| Sep-19 |
29.9 |
40.0 |
30.1 |
-0.2 |
34.7 |
39.2 |
26.0 |
8.7 |
| Nov-19 |
27.5 |
42.4 |
30.1 |
-2.6 |
33.4 |
43.0 |
23.5 |
9.9 |
| Jan-20 |
28.0 |
37.3 |
34.6 |
-6.6 |
34.3 |
37.8 |
27.9 |
6.4 |
| Mar-20 |
27.7 |
42.0 |
30.3 |
-2.6 |
32.4 |
43.5 |
24.1 |
8.3 |
| May-20 |
13.9 |
39.6 |
46.4 |
-32.5 |
22.0 |
42.4 |
35.6 |
-13.6 |
| Jul-20 |
9.2 |
29.4 |
61.4 |
-52.2 |
22.2 |
37.9 |
39.9 |
-17.7 |
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