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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के जुलाई 2020 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविड -19 महामारी के चलते सर्वेक्षण टेलीफ़ोन के ज़रिए, जुलाई 1 से जुलाई 12, 2020 के बीच 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,411 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष :

i. मई 2020 की तुलना में जुलाई 2020 में परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति धारणा में 60 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि हुई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]।

ii. पिछले चक्र की तुलना में आगामी तीन महीने और एक वर्ष के दौरान की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओ में प्रत्येक में 10 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि हुई; लगातार दूसरे सर्वेक्षण चक्र के दौरान आगामी तीन महीने के दौरान की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं एक वर्ष के दौरान के लिए की गई अपेक्षाओ से अधिक रहीं [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]।

iii. कुल स्तर पर कीमतों में बदलाव पर परिवारों की अपेक्षाएं घनिष्ठतापूर्वक खाद्य उत्पादों और सेवा मूल्यों की अपेक्षाओ पर निर्भर करती हैं। एक वर्ष की अवधि की तुलना में तीन महीने की अवधि के दौरान खाद्य पदार्थों की उच्चतर अपेक्षाओं ने उच्चतर अलपकालिक मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में योगदान किया है [तालिका 1a, तालिका 1b]।

Chart_1

नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।


Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 77.9 0.95 83.2 0.87 83.3 0.79 85.3 0.73 83.5 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 49.8 1.15 56.1 1.16 52.5 1.10 56.0 1.02 52.2 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 24.7 0.98 23.4 0.91 25.6 0.99 23.5 0.89 26.0 1.03
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.38 3.6 0.37 5.2 0.56 5.8 0.49 5.3 0.54
No changes in prices 18.5 0.88 14.4 0.81 14.9 0.76 12.4 0.69 14.0 0.84
Decline in prices 3.6 0.39 2.4 0.31 1.8 0.25 2.3 0.32 2.5 0.43
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 80.0 0.87 81.7 0.80 81.9 0.81 84.6 0.75 82.3 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 48.5 1.09 56.0 1.11 55.4 1.02 58.6 1.00 54.7 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 25.7 1.01 20.1 0.85 20.0 0.88 20.0 0.82 21.9 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.47 5.5 0.45 6.5 0.56 6.0 0.49 5.7 0.47
No changes in prices 13.8 0.75 11.2 0.67 12.4 0.68 10.7 0.64 13.2 0.75
Decline in prices 6.2 0.52 7.2 0.50 5.7 0.43 4.7 0.45 4.5 0.56
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 73.8 0.97 77.8 0.91 77.8 0.87 76.7 0.88 79.1 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 43.1 1.14 51.4 1.15 50.8 1.00 49.5 0.99 48.3 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 25.2 0.93 21.2 0.88 20.8 0.89 20.8 0.82 24.6 0.98
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.46 5.3 0.43 6.2 0.50 6.4 0.50 6.2 0.51
No changes in prices 20.4 0.90 17.7 0.82 17.7 0.79 17.8 0.79 15.2 0.87
Decline in prices 5.8 0.48 4.4 0.39 4.5 0.42 5.5 0.49 5.6 0.59
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 57.9 1.07 60.3 1.02 64.5 1.02 55.1 1.04 57.8 1.14
Price increase more than current rate 33.7 1.05 37.9 1.03 42.3 1.03 33.6 0.96 34.7 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 19.6 0.81 17.5 0.76 17.2 0.80 16.4 0.76 17.6 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.41 4.8 0.43 5.0 0.44 5.1 0.44 5.4 0.48
No changes in prices 28.2 0.96 26.8 0.91 24.2 0.90 29.7 0.94 28.4 1.00
Decline in prices 13.9 0.67 12.9 0.65 11.2 0.63 15.2 0.76 13.8 0.86
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 68.6 1.01 69.7 1.04 71.0 1.07 48.6 1.01 46.9 1.08
Price increase more than current rate 45.2 1.04 48.4 1.10 49.5 1.10 30.2 0.93 28.1 0.98
Price increase similar to current rate 19.4 0.82 17.3 0.74 17.4 0.78 13.6 0.69 14.9 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.38 4.0 0.40 4.2 0.39 4.8 0.45 3.9 0.39
No changes in prices 22.8 0.90 22.0 0.95 22.1 0.96 30.3 0.93 29.9 1.03
Decline in prices 8.6 0.58 8.3 0.54 6.9 0.52 21.1 0.83 23.2 0.95
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 66.1 1.03 72.5 0.98 70.8 0.99 68.3 0.97 70.1 1.06
Price increase more than current rate 39.8 1.07 46.4 1.13 46.2 1.02 43.2 0.99 43.3 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 21.6 0.83 21.1 0.81 19.3 0.84 19.3 0.79 21.2 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.42 4.9 0.43 5.2 0.44 5.9 0.46 5.6 0.49
No changes in prices 28.7 0.94 23.4 0.90 25.9 0.94 27.4 0.93 25.7 0.99
Decline in prices 5.3 0.46 4.1 0.38 3.3 0.34 4.4 0.42 4.2 0.52
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 83.8 0.87 88.1 0.74 89.2 0.65 85.6 0.73 84.6 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 56.8 1.15 63.6 1.13 60.7 1.07 57.1 1.00 55.9 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 24.1 1.01 21.4 0.88 24.8 1.00 23.8 0.88 24.3 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 2.9 0.35 3.2 0.37 3.7 0.42 4.7 0.43 4.4 0.46
No changes in prices 12.6 0.78 9.5 0.67 9.0 0.62 11.9 0.67 12.9 0.82
Decline in prices 3.6 0.40 2.4 0.30 1.8 0.26 2.5 0.33 2.5 0.35
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.9 0.80 84.8 0.73 85.6 0.73 77.3 0.86 75.3 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 49.3 1.16 56.0 1.14 55.6 1.10 46.9 1.01 45.2 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 27.7 0.98 24.3 0.93 24.3 0.93 24.2 0.88 24.1 0.96
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.42 4.5 0.40 5.7 0.49 6.3 0.51 6.0 0.50
No changes in prices 12.0 0.67 9.8 0.59 10.3 0.64 15.7 0.74 17.4 0.88
Decline in prices 6.1 0.49 5.4 0.42 4.1 0.37 6.9 0.52 7.3 0.63
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 78.1 0.89 81.6 0.80 82.3 0.81 73.3 0.92 74.3 1.04
Price increase more than current rate 46.1 1.11 53.1 1.14 53.6 1.08 42.6 0.99 44.0 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 27.1 0.97 23.5 0.88 23.4 0.92 23.9 0.87 24.3 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 5.1 0.44 5.3 0.47 6.8 0.51 6.0 0.50
No changes in prices 16.6 0.80 14.1 0.72 14.2 0.73 20.7 0.84 18.7 0.97
Decline in prices 5.3 0.47 4.3 0.39 3.4 0.36 6.0 0.49 7.0 0.71
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 66.2 1.01 68.0 0.96 70.8 1.02 59.6 1.03 62.4 1.14
Price increase more than current rate 39.8 1.08 44.0 1.10 46.6 1.09 34.8 0.99 35.6 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 22.0 0.91 20.0 0.80 19.8 0.86 19.1 0.79 21.1 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.39 4.0 0.40 4.4 0.42 5.7 0.47 5.8 0.51
No changes in prices 23.0 0.89 21.2 0.84 19.7 0.87 28.4 0.93 26.0 1.01
Decline in prices 10.9 0.61 10.7 0.60 9.5 0.59 12.1 0.67 11.6 0.81
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 76.9 0.89 77.8 0.89 79.9 0.90 59.7 1.00 57.4 1.10
Price increase more than current rate 52.1 1.00 54.7 1.09 56.5 1.03 36.9 0.98 34.7 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 21.5 0.83 19.0 0.83 19.6 0.82 17.3 0.77 18.4 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.34 4.1 0.39 3.8 0.39 5.5 0.46 4.3 0.43
No changes in prices 15.3 0.75 15.0 0.77 14.5 0.78 25.1 0.89 26.1 1.01
Decline in prices 7.8 0.55 7.2 0.50 5.5 0.47 15.2 0.73 16.5 0.83
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 77.1 0.93 82.5 0.79 81.4 0.85 74.4 0.91 75.6 1.06
Price increase more than current rate 47.2 1.12 54.6 1.15 53.0 1.09 44.6 0.98 46.1 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 25.2 0.95 23.0 0.87 23.3 0.90 23.1 0.85 23.7 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.43 4.9 0.44 5.0 0.44 6.7 0.50 5.8 0.50
No changes in prices 17.8 0.82 14.6 0.72 16.0 0.81 22.1 0.87 20.5 0.97
Decline in prices 5.2 0.47 2.9 0.33 2.7 0.30 3.5 0.38 3.9 0.57
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: July 2020
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 10.0 0.11 9.9 0.21 10.8 0.11 10.5 0.06 9.8 0.14 10.3 0.08
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.9 0.14 9.5 0.39 10.7 0.13 10.3 0.08 9.7 0.17 10.2 0.11
Female 9.8 0.14 9.9 0.22 11.0 0.15 10.6 0.08 9.9 0.19 10.3 0.10
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.1 0.41 8.3 0.38 9.8 0.48 9.8 0.69 8.6 0.50 9.5 0.92
Other Employees 9.7 0.19 9.5 0.48 10.6 0.20 10.4 0.11 10.0 0.24 10.3 0.17
Self Employed 9.9 0.21 9.8 0.42 10.5 0.22 10.3 0.14 9.5 0.30 10.1 0.24
Homemaker 9.8 0.17 9.9 0.25 11.0 0.18 10.6 0.11 9.8 0.22 10.3 0.12
Retired Persons 10.5 0.29 10.2 0.27 11.2 0.28 10.6 0.18 10.3 0.35 10.5 0.18
Daily Workers 10.1 0.22 9.7 0.44 11.0 0.22 10.5 0.15 9.7 0.33 10.2 0.24
Other category 9.5 0.22 8.8 0.41 10.3 0.22 10.1 0.22 9.6 0.29 9.8 0.44
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 9.6 0.19 9.0 0.42 10.5 0.18 10.3 0.11 9.7 0.23 10.0 0.32
25 to 30 years 9.8 0.21 9.6 0.43 10.8 0.22 10.5 0.15 9.8 0.26 10.2 0.20
30 to 35 years 9.7 0.21 9.7 0.41 10.7 0.22 10.5 0.13 9.7 0.28 10.2 0.18
35 to 40 years 9.7 0.19 9.7 0.42 10.9 0.20 10.5 0.12 9.9 0.24 10.3 0.15
40 to 45 years 10.4 0.21 10.2 0.16 11.1 0.21 10.6 0.15 10.0 0.33 10.4 0.20
45 to 50 years 10.4 0.31 10.0 0.44 10.9 0.35 10.4 0.28 9.9 0.38 10.2 0.41
50 to 55 years 10.3 0.24 10.1 0.23 10.7 0.32 10.2 0.37 9.7 0.30 10.2 0.35
55 to 60 years 10.5 0.30 10.3 0.16 11.2 0.28 10.7 0.26 9.7 0.38 10.4 0.15
60 years and above 10.8 0.23 10.4 0.13 11.6 0.22 11.0 0.41 10.5 0.32 10.8 0.27
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.5 0.36 10.2 0.26 11.5 0.35 11.3 0.70 11.0 0.40 11.0 0.63
Bengaluru 10.1 0.31 10.3 0.11 11.0 0.30 10.7 0.24 10.1 0.36 10.5 0.21
Bhopal 10.1 0.61 10.2 0.57 10.6 0.70 10.5 0.51 10.4 0.76 10.8 1.06
Bhubaneswar 8.9 0.55 9.0 1.28 11.5 0.55 11.4 0.98 11.3 0.62 11.5 1.15
Chennai 10.9 0.39 10.7 0.30 12.1 0.37 13.2 1.48 11.5 0.49 13.9 1.34
Delhi 8.0 0.20 7.1 0.28 8.8 0.21 8.1 0.28 8.4 0.24 8.0 0.28
Guwahati 13.5 0.74 15.9 0.97 13.4 0.81 15.8 0.74 11.8 1.03 14.8 1.91
Hyderabad 11.4 0.75 11.8 2.12 12.4 0.73 14.8 1.95 10.3 1.04 12.8 2.68
Jaipur 10.9 0.58 10.7 0.80 11.6 0.60 11.5 1.70 9.7 0.75 10.4 1.01
Kolkata 11.4 0.28 10.7 0.25 12.3 0.27 13.9 1.24 11.5 0.34 13.4 1.38
Lucknow 10.2 0.54 10.0 0.55 10.7 0.55 10.5 0.44 9.7 0.66 10.2 0.50
Mumbai 10.1 0.26 9.2 0.39 10.9 0.27 10.3 0.23 8.8 0.35 9.2 0.54
Nagpur 8.4 0.52 7.4 0.32 10.2 0.50 9.3 0.56 10.3 0.53 10.5 0.25
Patna 8.4 0.49 8.4 0.96 9.1 0.56 9.1 0.94 8.0 0.72 8.0 0.97
Thiruvananthapuram 6.4 0.76 5.1 0.49 7.8 0.89 6.6 0.62 8.3 0.95 7.5 0.62
Chandigarh 10.1 0.60 9.7 0.76 9.9 0.66 9.9 0.64 9.1 0.69 9.4 0.91
Ranchi 8.5 0.68 7.7 0.89 9.3 0.66 8.6 0.79 8.6 0.86 8.9 0.87
Raipur 9.0 0.48 8.2 0.51 9.9 0.54 9.0 0.56 9.0 0.90 9.8 0.82
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jul-19 7.9 0.10 6.6 0.15 8.6 0.10 7.6 0.12 8.3 0.13 7.9 0.18
Jan-20 8.7 0.11 7.6 0.19 9.5 0.11 8.6 0.16 9.3 0.13 9.2 0.25
Mar-20 8.4 0.09 7.6 0.12 9.2 0.10 8.5 0.11 9.1 0.11 9.0 0.18
May-20 9.6 0.09 9.3 0.28 10.6 0.09 10.4 0.06 9.7 0.12 10.2 0.07
Jul-20 10.0 0.11 9.9 0.21 10.8 0.11 10.5 0.06 9.8 0.14 10.3 0.08
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jul-19 66.1 65.5 55.3 60.8 65.0
Jan-20 66.1 66.2 53.4 59.3 64.5
Mar-20 65.4 64.6 55.8 61.1 64.7
May-20 63.3 59.8 46.5 42.6 57.3
Jul-20 62.8 61.0 49.9 43.6 58.4
One Year Ahead
Jul-19 72.3 71.2 61.5 70.0 72.4
Jan-20 72.2 70.9 60.3 67.8 72.8
Mar-20 71.9 71.8 63.2 69.9 72.3
May-20 62.3 59.5 50.9 50.3 62.3
Jul-20 63.9 64.5 55.2 51.2 65.7
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: July 2020
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)

<1

1-<2

2-<3

3-<4

4-<5

5-<6

6-<7

7-<8

8-<9

9-<10

10-<11

11-<12

12-<13

13-<14

14-<15

15-<16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

21

0

4

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

29

1-<2

2

33

3

4

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

45

2-<3

3

7

81

39

29

16

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

178

3-<4

2

1

6

75

34

53

15

3

3

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

198

4-<5

0

0

5

2

104

40

31

16

5

4

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

212

5-<6

1

2

7

24

14

378

75

141

76

10

101

1

1

1

0

11

5

1

849

6-<7

1

0

1

2

3

9

148

39

50

18

28

4

7

1

0

1

1

1

314

7-<8

0

0

1

1

7

8

4

173

71

43

60

3

9

1

0

4

1

1

387

8-<9

0

1

2

1

2

8

5

5

164

41

107

7

26

8

1

8

6

2

394

9-<10

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

3

74

31

18

21

3

5

4

0

0

162

10-<11

1

1

1

1

4

30

3

8

14

5

464

35

98

41

8

226

106

5

1051

11-<12

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

20

5

5

5

3

1

0

41

12-<13

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

3

1

1

3

0

34

5

10

22

14

0

95

13-<14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

4

4

8

0

21

14-<15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

12

4

11

0

28

15-<16

0

0

1

0

0

2

1

1

1

0

18

0

2

0

0

102

160

0

288

>=16

3

0

0

1

1

4

4

0

2

0

34

1

2

0

1

18

1038

10

1119

Total

34

45

113

152

200

553

289

391

390

197

855

89

205

70

46

407

1353

22

5411
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: July 2020
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 12 0 6 0 3 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29
1-<2 22 11 5 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45
2-<3 33 4 45 34 25 12 7 10 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 178
3-<4 26 0 3 44 17 45 21 13 15 3 6 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 198
4-<5 29 0 2 0 65 29 34 17 21 4 5 2 2 0 1 0 0 1 212
5-<6 118 0 5 10 1 241 56 108 79 19 144 3 14 4 1 30 15 1 849
6-<7 39 0 0 1 1 7 107 33 39 16 41 3 13 0 1 6 4 3 314
7-<8 59 0 0 2 0 7 1 111 48 42 79 8 14 5 0 6 4 1 387
8-<9 58 1 0 0 1 3 4 2 118 35 97 4 33 8 8 10 11 1 394
9-<10 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 45 31 9 21 7 5 14 4 0 162
10-<11 126 0 1 2 2 18 3 7 12 2 316 15 76 36 22 196 211 6 1051
11-<12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 2 6 3 6 2 1 41
12-<13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 19 4 12 23 18 0 95
13-<14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 4 9 0 21
14-<15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 3 12 0 28
15-<16 42 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 9 0 1 1 1 56 171 1 288
>=16 180 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 1 0 17 1 1 0 0 11 890 14 1119
Total 793 16 67 96 117 376 235 306 339 168 754 59 199 76 64 366 1351 29 5411
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 यह सर्वेक्षण, जो रिजर्व बैंक द्वारा द्विमासिक अंतराल पर आयोजित किया जाता है, उत्तरदाताओं के अपेक्षित निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबाव पर उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर परिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।


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