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प्रकाशन

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के मई 2021 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविड-19 महामारी के चलते सर्वेक्षण टेलीफ़ोन पर, अप्रैल 29 से मई 11, 2021 के बीच 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम2 5,979 शहरी परिवारों3 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।

विशेष:

  1. वर्तमान अवधि के लिए परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अनुभूति में पिछले चक्र के मुकाबले क्रमशः 150 आधार अंक की वृद्धि हुई [चार्ट 1a और 1b; तालिका 3]।

  2. तीन माह और एक वर्ष आगे की दोनों अवधि के लिए नवीनतम चक्र में,परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं में प्रत्येक के लिए 70 आधार अंक की वृद्धि हुई [चार्ट 1a और 1b; तालिका 3]।.

  3. लगभग 60 प्रतिशत उत्तरदाताओं को अगले तीन महीनों के साथ-साथ अगले एक वर्ष में सामान्य मुद्रास्फीति के बढ्ने की उम्मीद है [तालिका 1a और 1b]।

  4. सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति को लेकर उम्मीदें सामान्यतया खाद्य समूहों के साथ जुड़ी हुई थीं [तालिका 4]।

  5. गैर-खाद्य उत्पादों, घरेलू टिकाऊ वस्तुओं, आवास और सेवाओं के लिए तिमाही क्षितिज की तुलना में परिवारों को एक वर्ष के क्षितिज में कीमतों में ज्यादा वृद्धि होने की उम्मीद है [तालिका 1a और 1b]।

Chart 1

नोट: कृपया समय शृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 85.3 0.73 83.3 0.85 83.7 0.89 86.6 0.74 83.7 0.68
Price increase more than current rate 56.0 1.02 55.4 1.14 56.0 1.26 58.4 1.14 58.5 0.91
Price increase similar to current rate 23.5 0.89 23.6 0.95 22.4 0.95 24.1 0.94 21.2 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.49 4.4 0.46 5.3 0.53 4.1 0.50 4.0 0.37
No changes in prices 12.4 0.69 14.2 0.81 14.3 0.86 11.1 0.71 14.0 0.63
Decline in prices 2.3 0.32 2.4 0.32 1.9 0.30 2.3 0.29 2.3 0.30
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.6 0.75 81.5 0.83 80.9 0.95 85.2 0.70 84.4 0.72
Price increase more than current rate 58.6 1.00 54.7 1.10 54.2 1.16 61.2 1.01 60.2 0.92
Price increase similar to current rate 20.0 0.82 20.3 0.90 20.0 0.95 18.1 0.81 19.4 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.49 6.5 0.59 6.7 0.57 6.0 0.55 4.8 0.38
No changes in prices 10.7 0.64 11.6 0.67 13.0 0.82 9.3 0.60 11.8 0.63
Decline in prices 4.7 0.45 6.9 0.54 6.1 0.54 5.5 0.45 3.9 0.39
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 76.7 0.88 74.8 0.99 79.3 0.98 81.0 0.78 78.6 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 49.5 0.99 48.0 1.11 51.6 1.20 57.0 1.00 53.1 0.95
Price increase similar to current rate 20.8 0.82 20.3 0.87 20.9 0.90 19.4 0.77 19.8 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 6.4 0.50 6.4 0.57 6.7 0.56 4.7 0.43 5.6 0.44
No changes in prices 17.8 0.79 20.1 0.92 16.9 0.91 12.9 0.69 17.1 0.72
Decline in prices 5.5 0.49 5.2 0.48 3.8 0.40 6.2 0.48 4.3 0.42
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 55.1 1.04 60.3 1.09 64.3 1.11 68.1 0.92 58.8 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 33.6 0.96 38.2 1.11 42.5 1.15 46.0 0.98 37.7 0.94
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.76 16.2 0.82 16.8 0.77 17.7 0.74 16.4 0.70
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.44 5.8 0.59 5.0 0.49 4.4 0.44 4.7 0.40
No changes in prices 29.7 0.94 27.4 1.00 27.2 1.05 24.6 0.84 32.2 0.90
Decline in prices 15.2 0.76 12.3 0.71 8.4 0.58 7.3 0.50 9.0 0.56
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 48.6 1.01 60.7 1.12 66.1 1.11 68.9 0.93 54.9 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 30.2 0.93 40.4 1.14 45.1 1.20 48.4 1.03 36.5 0.92
Price increase similar to current rate 13.6 0.69 15.9 0.80 16.2 0.79 16.7 0.75 14.4 0.67
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.45 4.4 0.50 4.8 0.49 3.8 0.40 3.9 0.36
No changes in prices 30.3 0.93 25.9 1.01 24.6 1.02 22.2 0.86 30.5 0.89
Decline in prices 21.1 0.83 13.4 0.84 9.3 0.66 8.9 0.54 14.6 0.69
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 68.3 0.97 70.4 1.02 68.8 1.06 75.6 0.90 67.6 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 43.2 0.99 44.8 1.10 45.7 1.15 51.6 1.02 44.6 0.94
Price increase similar to current rate 19.3 0.79 20.3 0.88 18.5 0.81 19.4 0.79 18.0 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 5.9 0.46 5.3 0.50 4.6 0.50 4.5 0.44 5.0 0.40
No changes in prices 27.4 0.93 25.2 0.98 27.4 1.02 20.8 0.84 29.2 0.87
Decline in prices 4.4 0.42 4.4 0.44 3.8 0.47 3.6 0.36 3.2 0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 85.6 0.73 86.5 0.77 88.0 0.80 88.7 0.61 86.9 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 57.1 1.00 59.5 1.09 62.9 1.23 63.4 1.07 62.4 0.91
Price increase similar to current rate 23.8 0.88 22.9 0.92 21.2 0.95 21.4 0.87 20.3 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.43 4.1 0.44 3.9 0.43 3.8 0.44 4.2 0.38
No changes in prices 11.9 0.67 10.3 0.69 9.6 0.75 8.5 0.54 10.4 0.58
Decline in prices 2.5 0.33 3.2 0.39 2.4 0.33 2.8 0.32 2.7 0.33
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 77.3 0.86 77.7 0.97 80.5 0.96 81.7 0.74 81.7 0.76
Price increase more than current rate 46.9 1.01 48.4 1.10 53.0 1.21 54.6 1.01 53.5 0.95
Price increase similar to current rate 24.2 0.88 24.0 0.93 22.6 0.96 22.2 0.83 22.6 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 6.3 0.51 5.4 0.48 4.9 0.49 4.9 0.46 5.6 0.43
No changes in prices 15.7 0.74 14.3 0.82 13.4 0.84 12.0 0.61 12.5 0.64
Decline in prices 6.9 0.52 8.0 0.58 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.45 5.8 0.46
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 73.3 0.92 75.0 0.98 80.4 0.93 79.9 0.79 79.2 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 42.6 0.99 45.6 1.13 52.8 1.22 54.0 1.02 51.8 0.96
Price increase similar to current rate 23.9 0.87 23.5 0.93 22.7 0.93 21.4 0.83 21.8 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 6.8 0.51 5.9 0.55 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44 5.7 0.44
No changes in prices 20.7 0.84 19.3 0.89 15.0 0.84 13.4 0.66 15.8 0.70
Decline in prices 6.0 0.49 5.8 0.51 4.6 0.46 6.6 0.47 5.0 0.44
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 59.6 1.03 65.0 1.08 69.8 1.07 70.3 0.90 64.7 0.94
Price increase more than current rate 34.8 0.99 39.9 1.08 45.0 1.20 47.2 0.98 41.2 0.94
Price increase similar to current rate 19.1 0.79 19.7 0.88 19.9 0.81 18.8 0.74 18.6 0.72
Price increase less than current rate 5.7 0.47 5.4 0.54 4.9 0.48 4.4 0.42 4.9 0.39
No changes in prices 28.4 0.93 24.6 1.01 22.1 0.97 22.7 0.81 26.7 0.86
Decline in prices 12.1 0.67 10.3 0.68 8.1 0.63 6.9 0.48 8.6 0.55
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 59.7 1.00 72.1 1.01 74.8 1.05 75.7 0.86 65.4 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 36.9 0.98 47.8 1.10 49.9 1.22 53.8 1.04 43.5 0.97
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.77 19.8 0.87 20.2 0.91 18.3 0.79 17.5 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.46 4.5 0.44 4.7 0.48 3.6 0.38 4.5 0.40
No changes in prices 25.1 0.89 19.2 0.86 17.7 0.95 17.8 0.76 23.3 0.83
Decline in prices 15.2 0.73 8.7 0.65 7.5 0.61 6.5 0.48 11.2 0.62
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 74.4 0.91 77.2 0.98 78.5 0.98 81.4 0.75 76.5 0.82
Price increase more than current rate 44.6 0.98 49.0 1.11 51.1 1.21 55.2 1.02 50.0 0.94
Price increase similar to current rate 23.1 0.85 22.2 0.87 22.9 0.96 21.5 0.82 21.3 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 0.50 6.1 0.55 4.6 0.45 4.7 0.44 5.2 0.43
No changes in prices 22.1 0.87 18.6 0.91 18.2 0.94 15.2 0.67 20.1 0.77
Decline in prices 3.5 0.38 4.2 0.45 3.3 0.41 3.4 0.35 3.4 0.36
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May 2021
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 10.4 0.09 10.2 0.04 11.4 0.09 10.8 0.07 10.7 0.11 10.9 0.12
Gender-wise                        
Male 10.6 0.10 10.3 0.05 11.5 0.10 11.0 0.19 10.8 0.12 11.0 0.28
Female 9.8 0.13 9.5 0.38 11.0 0.13 10.5 0.09 10.6 0.15 10.7 0.12
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.5 0.44 8.7 0.92 10.8 0.44 10.7 0.97 10.1 0.53 10.4 1.34
Other Employees 10.3 0.14 10.2 0.07 11.3 0.14 10.8 0.15 10.7 0.17 10.8 0.18
Self Employed 10.7 0.15 10.3 0.07 11.7 0.14 11.3 0.50 10.8 0.18 11.3 0.50
Homemakers 9.8 0.14 9.6 0.38 11.0 0.14 10.5 0.09 10.6 0.18 10.7 0.14
Retired Persons 10.9 0.32 10.5 0.14 11.7 0.34 12.2 0.94 11.2 0.42 12.6 1.49
Daily Workers 10.5 0.21 10.3 0.09 11.6 0.22 11.3 0.63 10.9 0.28 11.4 0.76
Other category 10.1 0.22 10.0 0.33 10.8 0.22 10.4 0.15 10.2 0.29 10.5 0.21
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 9.4 0.17 8.6 0.24 10.5 0.18 10.1 0.19 10.3 0.21 10.5 0.12
25 to 30 years 10.2 0.16 10.2 0.12 11.2 0.16 10.7 0.13 10.6 0.21 10.8 0.24
30 to 35 years 10.5 0.17 10.3 0.08 11.5 0.16 11.0 0.31 10.7 0.20 10.9 0.29
35 to 40 years 10.4 0.17 10.2 0.09 11.4 0.17 10.9 0.28 10.9 0.21 11.3 0.57
40 to 45 years 10.6 0.17 10.3 0.08 11.7 0.16 11.1 0.41 10.9 0.21 11.2 0.51
45 to 50 years 10.6 0.22 10.4 0.10 11.6 0.21 11.8 0.60 10.7 0.25 11.2 0.58
50 to 55 years 10.8 0.27 10.4 0.13 11.6 0.27 11.2 0.68 10.5 0.34 10.7 0.40
55 to 60 years 10.7 0.28 10.4 0.11 11.4 0.27 10.7 0.22 10.3 0.34 10.7 0.37
60 years and above 10.9 0.27 10.4 0.14 11.7 0.27 11.6 0.77 11.2 0.32 12.4 1.05
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.1 0.34 10.1 0.41 11.3 0.31 11.2 0.78 11.1 0.35 11.4 0.89
Bengaluru 10.5 0.26 10.4 0.10 11.9 0.25 12.4 0.64 12.0 0.31 15.2 0.33
Bhopal 9.5 0.70 8.9 1.12 10.9 0.74 10.5 1.01 9.5 0.90 10.2 1.14
Bhubaneswar 10.0 0.74 10.1 1.00 11.2 0.75 12.5 2.26 10.3 0.82 11.1 2.04
Chennai 9.3 0.33 9.6 0.72 10.3 0.34 10.2 0.44 10.4 0.42 10.8 0.72
Delhi 10.5 0.23 10.3 0.11 11.5 0.23 11.1 0.52 10.6 0.27 10.7 0.30
Guwahati 11.6 0.63 10.8 0.80 12.4 0.66 12.7 1.23 12.4 0.77 13.9 1.69
Hyderabad 10.9 0.26 10.5 0.16 11.9 0.25 12.0 0.90 11.4 0.34 13.0 1.17
Jaipur 11.3 0.50 10.8 0.90 11.6 0.50 11.2 1.30 11.2 0.62 11.5 1.52
Kolkata 11.1 0.28 10.6 0.16 12.1 0.27 13.0 0.98 11.5 0.31 12.3 0.85
Lucknow 10.1 0.44 9.1 0.41 10.7 0.41 9.9 0.40 10.7 0.50 10.7 0.44
Mumbai 10.8 0.21 10.3 0.12 11.6 0.21 11.1 0.48 10.0 0.29 10.7 0.30
Nagpur 7.5 0.44 6.7 0.42 8.7 0.42 8.2 0.49 8.2 0.58 8.4 0.47
Patna 9.5 0.86 8.9 0.90 10.1 0.88 9.8 0.88 8.8 1.06 8.8 1.13
Thiruvananthapuram 6.1 0.80 4.8 0.64 7.6 0.79 6.3 0.55 8.7 0.99 8.1 1.30
Chandigarh 10.8 0.47 10.7 0.48 11.0 0.49 11.1 0.72 10.1 0.79 10.7 0.78
Ranchi 8.1 0.51 7.5 0.52 8.4 0.47 7.9 0.56 6.9 0.67 7.1 0.71
Raipur 9.4 0.69 8.9 0.68 10.3 0.71 9.7 0.71 9.8 0.81 9.6 0.74
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
May-20 9.6 0.09 9.3 0.28 10.6 0.09 10.4 0.06 9.7 0.12 10.2 0.07
Nov-20 9.5 0.11 8.8 0.18 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.09 9.8 0.13 10.1 0.11
Jan-21 9.1 0.12 8.2 0.17 10.0 0.12 9.3 0.29 9.7 0.13 10.1 0.15
Mar-21 9.4 0.11 8.7 0.16 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.11 10.0 0.12 10.2 0.09
May-21 10.4 0.09 10.2 0.04 11.4 0.09 10.8 0.07 10.7 0.11 10.9 0.12
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-20 63.3 59.8 46.5 42.6 57.3
Nov-20 62.7 63.5 52.4 54.0 60.7
Jan-21 63.3 64.3 54.5 55.7 62.8
Mar-21 67.0 65.7 57.4 58.6 65.1
May-21 68.0 65.1 51.8 50.3 60.5
One Year Ahead
May-20 62.3 59.5 50.9 50.3 62.3
Nov-20 66.4 65.9 56.7 62.1 68.9
Jan-21 68.4 68.6 60.6 63.0 69.0
Mar-21 69.6 70.1 62.4 65.5 71.6
May-21 68.3 67.1 57.7 57.1 67.2
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2021
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
1-<2 3 14 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31
2-<3 2 5 80 40 24 12 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 173
3-<4 0 2 7 75 39 39 23 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 190
4-<5 0 0 2 1 82 50 42 10 7 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200
5-<6 0 3 7 9 17 359 118 135 74 8 94 0 2 0 0 10 7 1 844
6-<7 0 1 1 2 6 8 118 70 64 11 22 2 7 0 0 1 0 1 314
7-<8 1 0 1 1 5 11 5 147 101 51 45 4 12 2 1 7 1 1 396
8-<9 0 0 0 2 0 1 3 6 197 70 118 16 23 8 5 4 11 0 464
9-<10 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 85 36 20 22 2 1 5 3 0 178
10-<11 0 0 0 1 1 22 6 2 21 8 497 52 174 45 18 256 144 2 1249
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 13 10 2 1 8 1 1 37
12-<13 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 39 7 14 21 8 0 93
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 17 3 1 6 0 29
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 9 6 7 0 25
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 8 1 3 4 0 120 191 0 331
>=16 1 0 0 0 3 12 0 1 1 0 16 0 0 0 1 35 1333 9 1412
Total 13 29 106 136 180 518 320 375 475 234 847 109 293 87 53 475 1713 16 5979
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2021
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 3 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 13
1-<2 5 7 7 4 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 31
2-<3 37 2 39 27 34 8 6 4 5 2 4 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 173
3-<4 29 0 5 38 26 35 18 10 13 3 7 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 190
4-<5 47 0 1 3 31 25 39 18 19 0 11 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 200
5-<6 124 0 0 8 7 204 65 119 91 22 118 7 16 5 3 38 16 1 844
6-<7 34 0 0 1 3 4 83 35 60 31 32 6 11 1 0 6 7 0 314
7-<8 56 0 1 1 3 7 5 94 49 76 52 6 13 1 9 14 9 0 396
8-<9 64 0 0 0 2 2 4 5 116 42 110 22 42 9 4 23 19 0 464
9-<10 24 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 45 33 24 21 4 2 16 7 0 178
10-<11 147 0 1 0 1 12 2 6 14 3 306 32 119 32 25 265 283 1 1249
11-<12 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 8 4 6 2 4 7 0 37
12-<13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 19 9 7 22 25 0 93
13-<14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 1 3 6 0 29
14-<15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 5 4 8 0 25
15-<16 27 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 2 83 208 0 331
>=16 171 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 23 0 1 0 1 21 1188 3 1412
Total 790 11 58 84 110 304 224 293 372 226 705 107 258 80 62 503 1786 6 5979
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1 सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा किए गए हों। पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर अप्रैल 07, 2021 को जारी किए गए थे।

2 यह सर्वेक्षण भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के द्वारा द्विमाही अंतरालों पर संचालित किया जाता है। यह सर्वेक्षण निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबावों पर उत्तरदाताओं से प्राप्त यथापेक्षित उपयोगी निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। अतः इन्हें मुद्रास्फीति पर पारिवारिक इकाइयो की भावनाओं के रूप में माना जाना चाहिए।

3 सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर के डेटा, बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल पर उपलब्ध हैं (वेबलिंक : https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData)।

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