आज रिजर्व बैंक ने अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के सितंबर 2021 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। सर्वेक्षण 29 अगस्त से 7 सितंबर, 2021 के दौरान 18 प्रमुख शहरों में मुख्य रूप से फील्ड साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से किया गया था और कुल नमूने का लगभग एक प्रतिशत कोविड-19 संबंधित प्रतिबंधों के कारण टेलीफोनिक साक्षात्कार के माध्यम से संचालित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम2 5,958 शहरी परिवारों3 के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Sep-20 |
Mar-21 |
May-21 |
Jul-21 |
Sep-21 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
81.6 |
0.78 |
86.6 |
0.74 |
83.7 |
0.68 |
85.9 |
0.79 |
84.9 |
0.77 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.9 |
1.02 |
58.4 |
1.14 |
58.5 |
0.91 |
63.0 |
1.15 |
61.5 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.5 |
0.84 |
24.1 |
0.94 |
21.2 |
0.76 |
19.6 |
0.90 |
19.9 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.46 |
4.1 |
0.50 |
4.0 |
0.37 |
3.3 |
0.38 |
3.5 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
15.9 |
0.74 |
11.1 |
0.71 |
14.0 |
0.63 |
11.3 |
0.70 |
12.9 |
0.72 |
Decline in prices |
2.5 |
0.31 |
2.3 |
0.29 |
2.3 |
0.30 |
2.8 |
0.40 |
2.2 |
0.29 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.4 |
0.80 |
85.2 |
0.70 |
84.4 |
0.72 |
84.0 |
0.81 |
84.8 |
0.74 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.6 |
1.00 |
61.2 |
1.01 |
60.2 |
0.92 |
61.0 |
1.15 |
61.4 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.2 |
0.81 |
18.1 |
0.81 |
19.4 |
0.75 |
17.6 |
0.89 |
18.2 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.6 |
0.51 |
6.0 |
0.55 |
4.8 |
0.38 |
5.4 |
0.53 |
5.3 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
14.3 |
0.70 |
9.3 |
0.60 |
11.8 |
0.63 |
10.5 |
0.65 |
10.8 |
0.64 |
Decline in prices |
5.3 |
0.46 |
5.5 |
0.45 |
3.9 |
0.39 |
5.5 |
0.53 |
4.4 |
0.40 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.8 |
0.87 |
81.0 |
0.78 |
78.6 |
0.79 |
82.6 |
0.85 |
82.1 |
0.82 |
Price increase more than current rate |
47.3 |
0.99 |
57.0 |
1.00 |
53.1 |
0.95 |
59.0 |
1.17 |
58.8 |
1.15 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.9 |
0.82 |
19.4 |
0.77 |
19.8 |
0.75 |
18.8 |
0.92 |
18.2 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.6 |
0.50 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
5.6 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.50 |
5.1 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
19.2 |
0.80 |
12.9 |
0.69 |
17.1 |
0.72 |
12.3 |
0.73 |
13.6 |
0.73 |
Decline in prices |
5.0 |
0.45 |
6.2 |
0.48 |
4.3 |
0.42 |
5.1 |
0.51 |
4.3 |
0.42 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
56.3 |
1.02 |
68.1 |
0.92 |
58.8 |
0.96 |
65.6 |
1.10 |
67.3 |
0.97 |
Price increase more than current rate |
35.0 |
0.96 |
46.0 |
0.98 |
37.7 |
0.94 |
45.1 |
1.19 |
46.5 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.8 |
0.74 |
17.7 |
0.74 |
16.4 |
0.70 |
16.6 |
0.86 |
16.2 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.5 |
0.47 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.40 |
4.0 |
0.43 |
4.6 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
30.7 |
0.94 |
24.6 |
0.84 |
32.2 |
0.90 |
25.3 |
0.99 |
25.0 |
0.87 |
Decline in prices |
13.1 |
0.69 |
7.3 |
0.50 |
9.0 |
0.56 |
9.1 |
0.66 |
7.7 |
0.53 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
51.8 |
0.98 |
68.9 |
0.93 |
54.9 |
0.94 |
64.7 |
1.13 |
68.7 |
0.95 |
Price increase more than current rate |
32.8 |
0.93 |
48.4 |
1.03 |
36.5 |
0.92 |
45.9 |
1.21 |
49.6 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
14.4 |
0.69 |
16.7 |
0.75 |
14.4 |
0.67 |
14.5 |
0.79 |
15.1 |
0.77 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.43 |
3.8 |
0.40 |
3.9 |
0.36 |
4.2 |
0.46 |
4.0 |
0.42 |
No changes in prices |
29.1 |
0.91 |
22.2 |
0.86 |
30.5 |
0.89 |
23.7 |
0.99 |
21.9 |
0.85 |
Decline in prices |
19.1 |
0.78 |
8.9 |
0.54 |
14.6 |
0.69 |
11.6 |
0.74 |
9.4 |
0.59 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
70.3 |
0.91 |
75.6 |
0.90 |
67.6 |
0.89 |
74.3 |
1.02 |
73.3 |
0.93 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.5 |
1.01 |
51.6 |
1.02 |
44.6 |
0.94 |
52.5 |
1.19 |
52.1 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.1 |
0.79 |
19.4 |
0.79 |
18.0 |
0.71 |
17.3 |
0.83 |
16.8 |
0.75 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.7 |
0.47 |
4.5 |
0.44 |
5.0 |
0.40 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.4 |
0.41 |
No changes in prices |
25.8 |
0.88 |
20.8 |
0.84 |
29.2 |
0.87 |
22.0 |
0.95 |
23.7 |
0.90 |
Decline in prices |
3.9 |
0.38 |
3.6 |
0.36 |
3.2 |
0.35 |
3.7 |
0.43 |
3.0 |
0.33 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Sep-20 |
Mar-21 |
May-21 |
Jul-21 |
Sep-21 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
84.8 |
0.73 |
88.7 |
0.61 |
86.9 |
0.65 |
86.8 |
0.78 |
87.7 |
0.72 |
Price increase more than current rate |
59.6 |
1.00 |
63.4 |
1.07 |
62.4 |
0.91 |
65.6 |
1.18 |
66.5 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.4 |
0.82 |
21.4 |
0.87 |
20.3 |
0.75 |
18.3 |
0.93 |
18.0 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.7 |
0.43 |
3.8 |
0.44 |
4.2 |
0.38 |
2.9 |
0.38 |
3.3 |
0.36 |
No changes in prices |
12.1 |
0.67 |
8.5 |
0.54 |
10.4 |
0.58 |
10.1 |
0.68 |
9.3 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
3.1 |
0.35 |
2.8 |
0.32 |
2.7 |
0.33 |
3.1 |
0.41 |
2.9 |
0.36 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
77.3 |
0.85 |
81.7 |
0.74 |
81.7 |
0.76 |
80.8 |
0.87 |
81.6 |
0.79 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.3 |
0.99 |
54.6 |
1.01 |
53.5 |
0.95 |
55.9 |
1.18 |
57.4 |
1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.5 |
0.82 |
22.2 |
0.83 |
22.6 |
0.77 |
20.7 |
0.98 |
19.5 |
0.89 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.4 |
0.51 |
4.9 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.43 |
4.2 |
0.45 |
4.7 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
14.8 |
0.72 |
12.0 |
0.61 |
12.5 |
0.64 |
12.6 |
0.73 |
11.9 |
0.66 |
Decline in prices |
7.9 |
0.55 |
6.3 |
0.45 |
5.8 |
0.46 |
6.6 |
0.54 |
6.5 |
0.47 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.7 |
0.87 |
79.9 |
0.79 |
79.2 |
0.78 |
80.3 |
0.91 |
81.5 |
0.81 |
Price increase more than current rate |
47.3 |
1.00 |
54.0 |
1.02 |
51.8 |
0.96 |
56.8 |
1.21 |
57.9 |
1.13 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.2 |
0.83 |
21.4 |
0.83 |
21.8 |
0.76 |
19.0 |
0.91 |
19.5 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.1 |
0.49 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
5.7 |
0.44 |
4.6 |
0.48 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
18.2 |
0.78 |
13.4 |
0.66 |
15.8 |
0.70 |
13.4 |
0.76 |
13.2 |
0.71 |
Decline in prices |
6.1 |
0.49 |
6.6 |
0.47 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
6.2 |
0.57 |
5.3 |
0.42 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
62.3 |
0.98 |
70.3 |
0.90 |
64.7 |
0.94 |
69.1 |
1.06 |
71.5 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
38.8 |
0.98 |
47.2 |
0.98 |
41.2 |
0.94 |
47.0 |
1.18 |
49.4 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.4 |
0.77 |
18.8 |
0.74 |
18.6 |
0.72 |
18.3 |
0.88 |
17.5 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.1 |
0.45 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
4.9 |
0.39 |
3.8 |
0.41 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
26.5 |
0.88 |
22.7 |
0.81 |
26.7 |
0.86 |
22.7 |
0.97 |
22.3 |
0.89 |
Decline in prices |
11.2 |
0.64 |
6.9 |
0.48 |
8.6 |
0.55 |
8.2 |
0.62 |
6.2 |
0.47 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
63.9 |
0.95 |
75.7 |
0.86 |
65.4 |
0.93 |
71.8 |
1.08 |
76.5 |
0.87 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.0 |
0.99 |
53.8 |
1.04 |
43.5 |
0.97 |
50.9 |
1.21 |
55.2 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.4 |
0.75 |
18.3 |
0.79 |
17.5 |
0.71 |
16.6 |
0.87 |
16.8 |
0.81 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.6 |
0.43 |
3.6 |
0.38 |
4.5 |
0.40 |
4.2 |
0.44 |
4.5 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
23.8 |
0.85 |
17.8 |
0.76 |
23.3 |
0.83 |
19.8 |
0.92 |
17.3 |
0.78 |
Decline in prices |
12.2 |
0.67 |
6.5 |
0.48 |
11.2 |
0.62 |
8.4 |
0.68 |
6.2 |
0.47 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
76.8 |
0.86 |
81.4 |
0.75 |
76.5 |
0.82 |
80.9 |
0.88 |
79.8 |
0.85 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.5 |
1.01 |
55.2 |
1.02 |
50.0 |
0.94 |
55.9 |
1.17 |
56.7 |
1.14 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.0 |
0.83 |
21.5 |
0.82 |
21.3 |
0.75 |
20.5 |
0.91 |
18.8 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.3 |
0.50 |
4.7 |
0.44 |
5.2 |
0.43 |
4.5 |
0.47 |
4.3 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
19.6 |
0.81 |
15.2 |
0.67 |
20.1 |
0.77 |
15.7 |
0.80 |
16.6 |
0.77 |
Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.4 |
0.35 |
3.4 |
0.36 |
3.4 |
0.42 |
3.6 |
0.38 |
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |