आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने मार्च 2024 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 2-11 मार्च, 2024 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था, जिसमें 6,083 शहरी परिवारों की प्रतिक्रियाएँ शामिल थी। इस दौर के सर्वेक्षण में महिला उत्तरदाताओं की हिस्सेदारी 50.8 प्रतिशत रही है।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-23 |
Sep-23 |
Nov-23 |
Jan-24 |
Mar-24 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
83.8 |
0.83 |
74.2 |
0.97 |
74.1 |
0.93 |
78.2 |
0.84 |
76.5 |
0.85 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.6 |
1.17 |
49.5 |
1.10 |
50.8 |
1.13 |
54.4 |
1.09 |
53.1 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.8 |
0.87 |
20.0 |
0.80 |
19.1 |
0.85 |
19.5 |
0.80 |
18.2 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.5 |
0.36 |
4.7 |
0.47 |
4.2 |
0.42 |
4.2 |
0.43 |
5.2 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
13.3 |
0.74 |
20.7 |
0.88 |
21.2 |
0.88 |
18.3 |
0.79 |
19.6 |
0.80 |
Decline in prices |
2.8 |
0.41 |
5.0 |
0.52 |
4.7 |
0.45 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.9 |
0.38 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
84.0 |
0.75 |
75.4 |
0.87 |
75.5 |
0.90 |
80.2 |
0.77 |
76.7 |
0.81 |
Price increase more than current rate |
62.1 |
1.12 |
55.1 |
1.05 |
53.7 |
1.04 |
59.3 |
1.00 |
54.4 |
1.00 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.9 |
0.79 |
15.1 |
0.71 |
16.1 |
0.74 |
15.6 |
0.72 |
15.7 |
0.69 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.1 |
0.42 |
5.3 |
0.46 |
5.8 |
0.47 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
6.6 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
9.7 |
0.59 |
13.2 |
0.68 |
15.5 |
0.76 |
12.3 |
0.65 |
15.1 |
0.68 |
Decline in prices |
6.3 |
0.53 |
11.3 |
0.66 |
9.0 |
0.57 |
7.5 |
0.51 |
8.2 |
0.54 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.3 |
0.79 |
69.2 |
0.93 |
73.8 |
0.87 |
74.0 |
0.85 |
71.5 |
0.87 |
Price increase more than current rate |
58.6 |
1.10 |
47.1 |
1.04 |
52.4 |
1.04 |
52.3 |
1.03 |
48.9 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.7 |
0.80 |
16.7 |
0.72 |
16.1 |
0.72 |
16.4 |
0.71 |
16.2 |
0.71 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.1 |
0.43 |
5.4 |
0.51 |
5.3 |
0.46 |
5.2 |
0.45 |
6.4 |
0.48 |
No changes in prices |
13.3 |
0.67 |
20.5 |
0.77 |
19.5 |
0.77 |
18.6 |
0.76 |
20.9 |
0.80 |
Decline in prices |
5.4 |
0.51 |
10.3 |
0.66 |
6.7 |
0.48 |
7.4 |
0.52 |
7.7 |
0.51 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
67.9 |
0.92 |
62.2 |
0.99 |
63.8 |
0.98 |
65.5 |
0.93 |
64.7 |
0.92 |
Price increase more than current rate |
47.8 |
1.09 |
43.2 |
1.05 |
45.5 |
1.02 |
46.3 |
1.04 |
43.8 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.8 |
0.75 |
14.1 |
0.65 |
13.4 |
0.68 |
14.5 |
0.65 |
15.5 |
0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.41 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
4.7 |
0.42 |
5.4 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
22.4 |
0.85 |
26.4 |
0.88 |
25.9 |
0.89 |
25.2 |
0.85 |
26.1 |
0.85 |
Decline in prices |
9.7 |
0.60 |
11.3 |
0.64 |
10.3 |
0.59 |
9.4 |
0.57 |
9.2 |
0.57 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
78.2 |
0.92 |
75.1 |
0.95 |
76.8 |
0.88 |
78.4 |
0.83 |
76.9 |
0.83 |
Price increase more than current rate |
57.7 |
1.14 |
54.3 |
1.09 |
57.2 |
1.09 |
58.2 |
1.05 |
55.8 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.7 |
0.76 |
16.3 |
0.66 |
15.5 |
0.72 |
16.1 |
0.72 |
16.4 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.8 |
0.39 |
4.5 |
0.43 |
4.1 |
0.37 |
4.0 |
0.41 |
4.7 |
0.40 |
No changes in prices |
18.1 |
0.83 |
20.9 |
0.90 |
20.0 |
0.83 |
18.1 |
0.79 |
19.6 |
0.78 |
Decline in prices |
3.7 |
0.44 |
4.1 |
0.46 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
3.6 |
0.34 |
3.5 |
0.36 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
73.2 |
0.90 |
63.0 |
1.04 |
63.3 |
0.96 |
65.0 |
0.93 |
65.0 |
0.97 |
Price increase more than current rate |
51.7 |
1.11 |
44.7 |
1.05 |
43.7 |
1.09 |
46.1 |
1.02 |
45.5 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.8 |
0.76 |
14.5 |
0.68 |
15.5 |
0.70 |
15.0 |
0.69 |
14.4 |
0.70 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.9 |
0.40 |
4.2 |
0.40 |
3.8 |
0.37 |
5.2 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
23.2 |
0.86 |
31.2 |
0.99 |
31.5 |
0.93 |
30.5 |
0.91 |
30.1 |
0.92 |
Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.40 |
5.7 |
0.54 |
5.1 |
0.48 |
4.5 |
0.41 |
4.8 |
0.43 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-23 |
Sep-23 |
Nov-23 |
Jan-24 |
Mar-24 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
90.4 |
0.66 |
86.2 |
0.74 |
89.0 |
0.65 |
88.7 |
0.63 |
87.4 |
0.67 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.3 |
1.11 |
62.2 |
1.05 |
67.2 |
1.07 |
66.3 |
1.06 |
64.7 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.1 |
0.87 |
19.9 |
0.81 |
18.4 |
0.87 |
19.1 |
0.83 |
18.5 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.0 |
0.33 |
4.1 |
0.43 |
3.4 |
0.38 |
3.3 |
0.36 |
4.2 |
0.41 |
No changes in prices |
6.4 |
0.50 |
9.6 |
0.59 |
8.4 |
0.56 |
8.2 |
0.55 |
9.7 |
0.59 |
Decline in prices |
3.2 |
0.43 |
4.2 |
0.48 |
2.7 |
0.35 |
3.0 |
0.36 |
2.9 |
0.35 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
86.3 |
0.71 |
82.8 |
0.80 |
86.1 |
0.71 |
86.4 |
0.68 |
84.5 |
0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate |
63.7 |
1.16 |
57.9 |
1.09 |
63.2 |
1.06 |
63.6 |
1.03 |
59.5 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.5 |
0.86 |
19.7 |
0.82 |
18.4 |
0.83 |
18.2 |
0.77 |
19.8 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.1 |
0.38 |
5.3 |
0.48 |
4.5 |
0.41 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
5.2 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
8.1 |
0.53 |
9.6 |
0.58 |
8.8 |
0.56 |
8.7 |
0.53 |
10.1 |
0.61 |
Decline in prices |
5.6 |
0.52 |
7.6 |
0.60 |
5.1 |
0.44 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
5.4 |
0.44 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
85.4 |
0.73 |
78.9 |
0.83 |
82.6 |
0.78 |
82.0 |
0.80 |
81.1 |
0.76 |
Price increase more than current rate |
62.9 |
1.12 |
54.7 |
1.05 |
60.7 |
1.09 |
59.1 |
1.11 |
56.3 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.2 |
0.78 |
19.7 |
0.78 |
17.4 |
0.80 |
18.6 |
0.79 |
19.5 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.3 |
0.40 |
4.5 |
0.44 |
4.5 |
0.42 |
4.4 |
0.41 |
5.3 |
0.47 |
No changes in prices |
9.4 |
0.55 |
13.9 |
0.66 |
12.9 |
0.65 |
13.1 |
0.66 |
14.1 |
0.69 |
Decline in prices |
5.2 |
0.51 |
7.2 |
0.57 |
4.5 |
0.43 |
4.8 |
0.45 |
4.8 |
0.44 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
76.5 |
0.85 |
73.9 |
0.91 |
75.5 |
0.89 |
74.8 |
0.84 |
74.5 |
0.83 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.8 |
1.15 |
52.4 |
1.04 |
55.3 |
1.07 |
54.0 |
1.06 |
52.3 |
1.06 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.9 |
0.80 |
17.3 |
0.71 |
16.3 |
0.77 |
16.7 |
0.69 |
17.3 |
0.76 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.8 |
0.38 |
4.1 |
0.42 |
3.9 |
0.39 |
4.1 |
0.41 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
15.4 |
0.70 |
18.5 |
0.76 |
17.7 |
0.76 |
18.3 |
0.75 |
18.1 |
0.76 |
Decline in prices |
8.1 |
0.60 |
7.7 |
0.56 |
6.8 |
0.50 |
6.9 |
0.49 |
7.4 |
0.51 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
87.4 |
0.65 |
86.1 |
0.70 |
87.9 |
0.68 |
88.0 |
0.65 |
87.2 |
0.66 |
Price increase more than current rate |
66.6 |
1.06 |
65.0 |
1.04 |
68.5 |
1.02 |
67.7 |
0.96 |
65.6 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.4 |
0.80 |
16.9 |
0.73 |
16.3 |
0.78 |
16.7 |
0.74 |
17.2 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.4 |
0.37 |
4.2 |
0.42 |
3.1 |
0.36 |
3.6 |
0.40 |
4.4 |
0.39 |
No changes in prices |
9.2 |
0.54 |
10.1 |
0.56 |
9.4 |
0.61 |
9.1 |
0.55 |
9.5 |
0.57 |
Decline in prices |
3.4 |
0.41 |
3.8 |
0.43 |
2.7 |
0.34 |
2.9 |
0.34 |
3.3 |
0.36 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
83.6 |
0.80 |
78.4 |
0.86 |
80.8 |
0.81 |
79.5 |
0.78 |
80.1 |
0.78 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.5 |
1.14 |
56.2 |
1.05 |
59.2 |
1.08 |
58.8 |
1.03 |
56.3 |
1.08 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.8 |
0.83 |
18.0 |
0.70 |
17.6 |
0.80 |
16.6 |
0.72 |
18.9 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.3 |
0.39 |
4.2 |
0.43 |
4.0 |
0.40 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
4.9 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
13.0 |
0.68 |
17.1 |
0.74 |
16.3 |
0.74 |
17.0 |
0.72 |
16.0 |
0.71 |
Decline in prices |
3.4 |
0.44 |
4.4 |
0.48 |
2.9 |
0.36 |
3.5 |
0.37 |
3.9 |
0.38 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |