आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने मार्च 2025 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 1-10 मार्च, 2025 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में किया गया था, जिसमें 6,091 वैध प्रतिक्रियाएँ मिलीं।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
Jan-25 |
Mar-25 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
76.5 |
0.85 |
79.7 |
0.89 |
79.3 |
0.89 |
81.6 |
0.79 |
80.7 |
0.87 |
Price increase more than current rate |
53.1 |
1.08 |
55.5 |
1.21 |
53.6 |
1.24 |
57.9 |
1.11 |
54.7 |
1.15 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.2 |
0.79 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
19.9 |
0.87 |
19.2 |
0.86 |
20.8 |
0.86 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.44 |
5.0 |
0.55 |
5.8 |
0.49 |
4.4 |
0.44 |
5.2 |
0.47 |
No changes in prices |
19.6 |
0.80 |
17.9 |
0.85 |
18.7 |
0.87 |
16.5 |
0.76 |
17.3 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
3.9 |
0.38 |
2.5 |
0.32 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
2.0 |
0.27 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
76.7 |
0.81 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
83.9 |
0.75 |
83.2 |
0.77 |
83.1 |
0.77 |
Price increase more than current rate |
54.4 |
1.00 |
60.7 |
1.07 |
60.7 |
1.08 |
59.3 |
1.03 |
57.8 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.7 |
0.69 |
16.7 |
0.77 |
17.0 |
0.81 |
17.3 |
0.78 |
18.3 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.6 |
0.50 |
6.6 |
0.58 |
6.2 |
0.50 |
6.7 |
0.53 |
7.0 |
0.54 |
No changes in prices |
15.1 |
0.68 |
11.2 |
0.67 |
11.1 |
0.64 |
11.5 |
0.66 |
12.2 |
0.69 |
Decline in prices |
8.2 |
0.54 |
4.9 |
0.42 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.3 |
0.45 |
4.7 |
0.40 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
71.5 |
0.87 |
76.1 |
0.92 |
75.9 |
0.90 |
75.2 |
0.86 |
75.6 |
0.89 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.9 |
1.01 |
52.4 |
1.11 |
51.7 |
1.14 |
52.5 |
1.04 |
53.3 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.2 |
0.71 |
17.7 |
0.78 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
16.8 |
0.74 |
15.3 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.4 |
0.48 |
6.1 |
0.55 |
6.3 |
0.50 |
6.0 |
0.47 |
7.0 |
0.54 |
No changes in prices |
20.9 |
0.80 |
19.1 |
0.85 |
19.9 |
0.85 |
20.4 |
0.79 |
20.2 |
0.82 |
Decline in prices |
7.7 |
0.51 |
4.7 |
0.42 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
4.4 |
0.40 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
64.7 |
0.92 |
64.9 |
1.03 |
66.5 |
1.00 |
67.0 |
0.99 |
66.7 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
43.8 |
1.01 |
45.9 |
1.11 |
46.3 |
1.11 |
46.9 |
1.09 |
45.2 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
15.5 |
0.70 |
14.2 |
0.71 |
14.5 |
0.70 |
14.7 |
0.71 |
15.8 |
0.74 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.4 |
0.44 |
4.7 |
0.48 |
5.7 |
0.50 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
5.8 |
0.51 |
No changes in prices |
26.1 |
0.85 |
25.2 |
0.97 |
24.8 |
0.89 |
25.3 |
0.92 |
24.6 |
0.90 |
Decline in prices |
9.2 |
0.57 |
9.8 |
0.55 |
8.7 |
0.55 |
7.8 |
0.50 |
8.6 |
0.52 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
76.9 |
0.83 |
77.7 |
0.88 |
78.9 |
0.85 |
78.5 |
0.91 |
78.0 |
0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.8 |
1.07 |
56.9 |
1.11 |
57.4 |
1.14 |
58.0 |
1.10 |
56.5 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.4 |
0.74 |
16.3 |
0.75 |
16.4 |
0.76 |
15.6 |
0.75 |
16.0 |
0.73 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.7 |
0.40 |
4.5 |
0.48 |
5.1 |
0.46 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
5.4 |
0.48 |
No changes in prices |
19.6 |
0.78 |
19.1 |
0.87 |
18.2 |
0.79 |
18.3 |
0.87 |
19.1 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
3.5 |
0.36 |
3.3 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
2.9 |
0.34 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
65.0 |
0.97 |
66.9 |
1.04 |
66.3 |
0.99 |
68.4 |
0.99 |
69.3 |
0.98 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.5 |
1.09 |
46.9 |
1.15 |
46.6 |
1.12 |
48.2 |
1.10 |
49.0 |
1.10 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
14.4 |
0.70 |
15.5 |
0.73 |
14.8 |
0.70 |
14.9 |
0.74 |
14.9 |
0.71 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.45 |
4.5 |
0.46 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
5.3 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
30.1 |
0.92 |
29.8 |
1.01 |
30.7 |
0.98 |
28.4 |
0.96 |
27.8 |
0.95 |
Decline in prices |
4.8 |
0.43 |
3.2 |
0.35 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
3.1 |
0.36 |
3.0 |
0.34 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Mar-24 |
Sep-24 |
Nov-24 |
Jan-25 |
Mar-25 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
87.4 |
0.67 |
89.4 |
0.73 |
89.6 |
0.67 |
90.6 |
0.62 |
89.7 |
0.67 |
Price increase more than current rate |
64.7 |
1.08 |
66.5 |
1.20 |
66.9 |
1.14 |
68.7 |
1.06 |
65.4 |
1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.5 |
0.83 |
18.6 |
0.91 |
18.6 |
0.85 |
18.1 |
0.87 |
19.7 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.41 |
4.4 |
0.50 |
4.1 |
0.40 |
3.8 |
0.43 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
9.7 |
0.59 |
8.6 |
0.67 |
8.2 |
0.62 |
7.4 |
0.55 |
8.4 |
0.62 |
Decline in prices |
2.9 |
0.35 |
2.0 |
0.28 |
2.2 |
0.30 |
2.0 |
0.29 |
1.9 |
0.27 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
84.5 |
0.73 |
86.6 |
0.78 |
89.0 |
0.66 |
88.8 |
0.65 |
87.9 |
0.66 |
Price increase more than current rate |
59.5 |
1.10 |
61.8 |
1.20 |
64.4 |
1.13 |
63.5 |
1.10 |
60.8 |
1.09 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.8 |
0.80 |
19.2 |
0.85 |
19.3 |
0.87 |
19.7 |
0.89 |
21.1 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.2 |
0.45 |
5.6 |
0.55 |
5.3 |
0.48 |
5.6 |
0.51 |
6.1 |
0.49 |
No changes in prices |
10.1 |
0.61 |
9.7 |
0.66 |
7.3 |
0.53 |
7.7 |
0.55 |
8.9 |
0.58 |
Decline in prices |
5.4 |
0.44 |
3.8 |
0.38 |
3.7 |
0.38 |
3.5 |
0.36 |
3.2 |
0.33 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.1 |
0.76 |
82.4 |
0.85 |
81.9 |
0.81 |
83.3 |
0.78 |
82.6 |
0.78 |
Price increase more than current rate |
56.3 |
1.09 |
58.3 |
1.20 |
56.7 |
1.19 |
59.4 |
1.16 |
56.7 |
1.11 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.5 |
0.82 |
18.5 |
0.83 |
19.5 |
0.84 |
18.6 |
0.84 |
20.0 |
0.83 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.3 |
0.47 |
5.6 |
0.57 |
5.6 |
0.48 |
5.2 |
0.46 |
6.0 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
14.1 |
0.69 |
14.0 |
0.77 |
14.7 |
0.76 |
13.2 |
0.69 |
13.9 |
0.71 |
Decline in prices |
4.8 |
0.44 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.4 |
0.36 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.5 |
0.35 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
74.5 |
0.83 |
76.2 |
0.93 |
76.8 |
0.90 |
76.3 |
0.90 |
75.4 |
0.90 |
Price increase more than current rate |
52.3 |
1.06 |
54.5 |
1.16 |
54.8 |
1.18 |
54.3 |
1.13 |
51.9 |
1.12 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.3 |
0.76 |
16.5 |
0.79 |
16.9 |
0.76 |
17.0 |
0.80 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.0 |
0.45 |
5.1 |
0.50 |
5.0 |
0.45 |
5.0 |
0.47 |
5.6 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
18.1 |
0.76 |
17.3 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.81 |
18.0 |
0.82 |
17.9 |
0.78 |
Decline in prices |
7.4 |
0.51 |
6.5 |
0.49 |
5.6 |
0.46 |
5.6 |
0.43 |
6.6 |
0.48 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
87.2 |
0.66 |
87.7 |
0.74 |
88.8 |
0.70 |
88.7 |
0.66 |
88.3 |
0.67 |
Price increase more than current rate |
65.6 |
1.01 |
65.9 |
1.07 |
66.7 |
1.09 |
67.6 |
1.05 |
66.5 |
1.03 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.2 |
0.74 |
17.0 |
0.79 |
17.6 |
0.83 |
17.0 |
0.80 |
17.6 |
0.80 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.4 |
0.39 |
4.8 |
0.53 |
4.5 |
0.45 |
4.1 |
0.45 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
No changes in prices |
9.5 |
0.57 |
8.9 |
0.60 |
8.7 |
0.61 |
8.8 |
0.59 |
9.3 |
0.60 |
Decline in prices |
3.3 |
0.36 |
3.4 |
0.40 |
2.5 |
0.30 |
2.5 |
0.31 |
2.3 |
0.30 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.1 |
0.78 |
82.2 |
0.85 |
81.7 |
0.90 |
81.9 |
0.85 |
82.4 |
0.79 |
Price increase more than current rate |
56.3 |
1.08 |
58.8 |
1.18 |
58.4 |
1.19 |
58.8 |
1.15 |
59.4 |
1.07 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
18.9 |
0.78 |
17.9 |
0.80 |
18.3 |
0.82 |
18.2 |
0.82 |
17.6 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.45 |
5.5 |
0.57 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
5.0 |
0.47 |
5.4 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
16.0 |
0.71 |
15.3 |
0.80 |
15.7 |
0.84 |
15.5 |
0.79 |
15.0 |
0.74 |
Decline in prices |
3.9 |
0.38 |
2.4 |
0.30 |
2.6 |
0.32 |
2.6 |
0.33 |
2.6 |
0.31 |
Note: |
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses. |
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |