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Date : Feb 06, 2026
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of January 2026 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during January 2-11, 2026, in 19 major cities, with 6,079 responses.

Highlights:

  1. The current median inflation perception of households inched up by 30 basis points (bps) to 6.9 per cent as compared to the previous round. Additionally, their inflation expectations for the three months and one year ahead rose by 30 bps and 60 bps, to 7.9 per cent and 8.6 per cent, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both the short-term and one-year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating a rise in general prices and inflation increased, reversing their declining trend [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Households reported expectations of price and inflationary pressures across all the product groups for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a and 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 81.6 0.79 79.5 1.22 77.8 0.90 74.6 0.90 78.6 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 57.9 1.11 52.7 1.58 51.5 1.20 50.7 1.14 54.6 1.20
Price increase similar to current rate 19.2 0.86 24.0 1.42 23.1 0.89 20.2 0.87 20.6 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.44 2.8 0.39 3.1 0.36 3.7 0.38 3.3 0.37
No changes in prices 16.5 0.76 18.4 1.18 18.5 0.85 21.5 0.84 18.9 0.88
Decline in prices 2.0 0.29 2.1 0.35 3.7 0.43 3.9 0.41 2.5 0.35
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.2 0.77 80.0 1.36 79.0 0.90 74.9 0.84 80.0 0.81
Price increase more than current rate 59.3 1.03 53.1 1.60 51.5 1.22 50.5 1.04 55.7 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.78 23.8 1.37 22.2 1.00 18.2 0.77 18.9 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 6.7 0.53 3.1 0.41 5.3 0.45 6.2 0.49 5.4 0.46
No changes in prices 11.5 0.66 15.9 1.30 14.2 0.80 16.1 0.72 14.5 0.71
Decline in prices 5.3 0.45 4.1 0.47 6.8 0.53 8.9 0.58 5.5 0.46
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.2 0.86 74.3 1.33 73.4 0.91 67.8 0.95 72.2 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 52.5 1.04 50.6 1.45 49.4 1.19 44.3 1.08 48.8 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 16.8 0.74 20.2 1.23 18.7 0.89 17.6 0.76 18.3 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.47 3.5 0.42 5.3 0.45 5.9 0.46 5.1 0.43
No changes in prices 20.4 0.79 21.8 1.27 20.1 0.80 24.7 0.87 22.7 0.87
Decline in prices 4.4 0.40 3.9 0.46 6.5 0.54 7.5 0.54 5.2 0.46
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 67.0 0.99 67.4 1.14 67.8 0.97 53.2 1.02 61.3 1.05
Price increase more than current rate 46.9 1.09 46.6 1.28 49.5 1.16 36.1 1.03 42.4 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 14.7 0.71 17.5 0.98 14.1 0.69 13.4 0.70 15.1 0.74
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.45 3.2 0.38 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.38 3.9 0.36
No changes in prices 25.3 0.92 25.9 1.05 21.5 0.83 29.4 0.91 28.2 0.99
Decline in prices 7.8 0.50 6.7 0.57 10.7 0.62 17.4 0.75 10.4 0.59
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.5 0.91 77.7 1.10 77.1 0.88 77.4 0.86 78.5 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 58.0 1.10 55.5 1.32 54.9 1.15 54.8 1.12 57.8 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 15.6 0.75 19.7 1.11 18.9 0.87 17.9 0.78 17.5 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.44 2.5 0.38 3.4 0.34 4.7 0.40 3.2 0.34
No changes in prices 18.3 0.87 19.1 1.04 18.7 0.81 18.5 0.81 17.9 0.81
Decline in prices 3.2 0.36 3.2 0.41 4.2 0.41 4.1 0.39 3.5 0.36
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 68.4 0.99 71.7 1.11 66.1 1.00 63.8 0.97 68.4 0.96
Price increase more than current rate 48.2 1.10 50.7 1.42 46.2 1.17 43.3 1.11 47.3 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 14.9 0.74 17.6 1.11 15.7 0.72 16.1 0.73 17.5 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.45 3.3 0.41 4.2 0.40 4.4 0.42 3.6 0.38
No changes in prices 28.4 0.96 25.6 1.07 30.0 0.98 32.5 0.95 28.3 0.96
Decline in prices 3.1 0.36 2.8 0.38 3.8 0.43 3.7 0.39 3.2 0.37
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jan-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 90.6 0.62 88.1 1.15 86.8 0.79 83.6 0.75 88.8 0.69
Price increase more than current rate 68.7 1.06 63.2 1.73 61.8 1.22 60.0 1.17 63.6 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 18.1 0.87 20.1 1.40 21.7 0.94 20.6 0.88 22.9 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.43 4.9 0.64 3.3 0.36 3.1 0.34 2.3 0.30
No changes in prices 7.4 0.55 9.8 1.11 10.0 0.70 13.0 0.65 8.5 0.60
Decline in prices 2.0 0.29 2.1 0.35 3.2 0.41 3.4 0.41 2.6 0.34
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 88.8 0.65 84.8 1.18 83.3 0.95 81.8 0.80 85.5 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 63.5 1.10 57.9 1.66 56.5 1.34 54.0 1.14 58.9 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 19.7 0.89 23.7 1.46 22.8 1.03 22.9 0.86 22.2 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.51 3.2 0.41 4.0 0.41 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.42
No changes in prices 7.7 0.55 11.6 1.12 11.5 0.80 12.8 0.66 10.1 0.63
Decline in prices 3.5 0.36 3.6 0.42 5.2 0.49 5.4 0.47 4.4 0.43
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.3 0.78 80.7 1.23 79.7 0.96 78.1 0.82 80.5 0.83
Price increase more than current rate 59.4 1.16 55.2 1.66 53.6 1.27 52.7 1.11 56.5 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 0.84 22.3 1.41 21.6 0.96 20.1 0.80 19.9 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.2 0.46 3.1 0.44 4.4 0.42 5.2 0.45 4.2 0.40
No changes in prices 13.2 0.69 15.7 1.17 15.4 0.84 16.6 0.72 15.4 0.75
Decline in prices 3.6 0.37 3.6 0.44 4.9 0.46 5.3 0.48 4.1 0.41
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 76.3 0.90 77.7 1.53 78.1 0.90 68.0 0.95 72.9 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 54.3 1.13 56.2 1.63 58.0 1.17 46.1 1.12 51.4 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 0.80 18.3 1.13 16.5 0.81 17.4 0.77 17.8 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.47 3.2 0.41 3.7 0.37 4.5 0.44 3.7 0.37
No changes in prices 18.0 0.82 18.7 1.49 14.2 0.72 21.1 0.80 19.3 0.84
Decline in prices 5.6 0.43 3.6 0.42 7.7 0.57 11.0 0.65 7.8 0.53
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.7 0.66 87.8 0.78 87.5 0.70 87.9 0.67 88.0 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 67.6 1.05 64.8 1.44 63.8 1.14 64.9 1.08 66.9 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 0.80 20.1 1.24 20.3 0.93 19.2 0.86 18.4 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.45 2.8 0.37 3.4 0.35 3.8 0.37 2.8 0.31
No changes in prices 8.8 0.59 9.3 0.70 9.1 0.58 8.6 0.56 8.8 0.56
Decline in prices 2.5 0.31 3.0 0.39 3.4 0.39 3.5 0.40 3.2 0.37
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 81.9 0.85 84.8 0.85 81.2 0.83 79.0 0.85 81.9 0.80
Price increase more than current rate 58.8 1.15 61.5 1.45 58.4 1.15 55.1 1.16 57.2 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 18.2 0.82 20.1 1.24 18.5 0.83 19.2 0.83 20.5 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.47 3.2 0.41 4.4 0.41 4.7 0.45 4.1 0.39
No changes in prices 15.5 0.79 12.5 0.79 15.4 0.77 17.6 0.77 15.2 0.75
Decline in prices 2.6 0.33 2.7 0.38 3.4 0.42 3.4 0.41 2.9 0.36
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jan-26
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 7.8 0.08 6.9 0.16 8.9 0.09 7.9 0.12 8.9 0.11 8.6 0.15
Gender-wise                        
Male 7.8 0.12 6.9 0.23 8.9 0.13 8.0 0.18 8.9 0.16 8.6 0.20
Female 7.8 0.12 6.8 0.22 8.9 0.13 8.0 0.16 8.9 0.15 8.6 0.19
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 7.0 0.43 6.1 0.46 8.8 0.55 7.5 0.64 8.0 0.88 7.5 0.49
Other Employees 7.7 0.16 6.6 0.26 8.7 0.19 7.8 0.21 9.0 0.22 8.6 0.27
Self Employed 8.1 0.19 7.1 0.31 9.1 0.20 8.1 0.29 9.1 0.24 8.7 0.40
Homemaker 7.9 0.15 6.9 0.26 8.9 0.16 7.9 0.18 8.9 0.18 8.5 0.23
Retired Persons 8.3 0.31 7.0 0.62 9.6 0.33 8.6 0.59 9.4 0.40 8.6 0.57
Daily Workers 8.1 0.24 7.1 0.50 9.3 0.27 8.5 0.30 9.0 0.32 8.6 0.50
Other category 7.5 0.20 6.8 0.30 8.6 0.20 7.8 0.23 9.0 0.25 8.7 0.37
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.2 0.16 6.2 0.21 8.4 0.17 7.4 0.18 8.7 0.21 8.2 0.24
25 to 30 years 7.9 0.18 7.1 0.25 8.7 0.18 7.9 0.20 9.0 0.24 9.0 0.39
30 to 35 years 7.6 0.18 6.6 0.26 8.6 0.19 7.8 0.24 8.7 0.24 8.4 0.34
35 to 40 years 7.8 0.19 6.9 0.32 9.0 0.20 8.0 0.26 8.9 0.24 8.8 0.34
40 to 45 years 8.1 0.21 7.2 0.39 8.9 0.24 8.0 0.28 8.7 0.27 8.3 0.44
45 to 50 years 8.0 0.23 7.1 0.36 9.3 0.25 8.2 0.34 9.0 0.29 8.9 0.53
50 to 55 years 8.1 0.24 6.9 0.54 8.9 0.25 7.9 0.32 9.2 0.31 8.7 0.48
55 to 60 years 8.2 0.27 7.5 0.58 9.1 0.29 8.2 0.48 8.6 0.35 8.5 0.71
60 years and above 7.9 0.25 6.4 0.39 9.3 0.27 8.1 0.36 9.1 0.32 8.5 0.37
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 6.2 0.25 5.6 0.09 7.4 0.45 6.4 0.26 7.2 0.43 6.7 0.27
Bengaluru 5.8 0.15 5.4 0.07 7.2 0.19 6.5 0.23 7.7 0.22 7.3 0.24
Bhopal 8.1 0.47 6.9 0.85 9.0 0.46 8.3 0.69 8.3 0.60 7.4 0.77
Bhubaneswar 8.9 0.51 9.4 1.03 10.6 0.65 10.5 0.68 10.8 0.99 10.9 0.98
Chennai 7.5 0.37 6.3 0.48 8.1 0.43 7.2 0.50 9.1 0.55 9.1 0.88
Delhi 8.1 0.21 7.1 0.46 9.5 0.22 8.8 0.58 9.0 0.25 8.8 0.72
Guwahati 6.6 0.50 5.9 0.49 7.1 0.47 6.5 0.60 7.3 0.61 7.1 0.58
Hyderabad 6.9 0.25 5.9 0.26 8.8 0.30 7.9 0.36 9.0 0.35 8.9 0.55
Jaipur 7.4 0.29 7.2 0.47 7.9 0.35 7.9 0.35 7.8 0.41 8.0 0.31
Jammu 7.3 0.65 6.4 0.99 8.0 0.54 7.3 0.85 8.5 0.68 8.3 1.19
Kolkata 9.1 0.32 9.6 0.68 10.5 0.27 10.1 0.49 10.4 0.30 10.7 0.43
Lucknow 8.2 0.42 8.0 0.46 8.8 0.51 8.3 0.46 8.9 0.54 9.1 0.67
Mumbai 9.2 0.26 8.4 0.18 9.5 0.26 9.0 0.39 9.6 0.34 10.2 0.23
Nagpur 8.3 0.53 7.9 0.73 9.4 0.56 9.1 0.78 9.4 0.75 10.1 0.85
Patna 7.2 0.72 6.3 0.82 7.4 0.73 6.6 0.79 6.4 0.90 5.9 0.89
Thiruvananthapuram 6.5 0.61 5.5 0.26 7.8 0.68 7.0 0.68 9.0 0.76 8.2 0.90
Chandigarh 9.3 0.52 8.8 0.47 9.9 0.63 9.2 0.84 9.8 0.74 9.4 0.85
Ranchi 7.7 0.33 7.1 0.32 8.0 0.34 7.3 0.35 7.7 0.54 7.7 0.31
Raipur 8.1 0.70 8.1 1.49 9.1 0.70 9.1 1.33 9.3 0.66 9.9 1.08
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jan-25 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Nov-25 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Jan-26 7.8 0.08 6.9 0.16 8.9 0.09 7.9 0.12 8.9 0.11 8.6 0.15
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jan-25 66.2 66.2 61.1 65.3 66.0
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
Nov-25 62.4 62.6 55.1 62.1 65.4
Jan-26 65.9 66.6 60.0 64.8 68.6
One Year Ahead
Jan-25 75.3 73.1 67.8 75.3 73.9
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0
Nov-25 83.4 70.3 61.7 71.0 71.1
Jan-26 71.7 71.0 64.5 73.0 72.8

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-26
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 6 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-<2 0 42 38 5 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90
2-<3 1 9 122 110 48 12 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 121 0 431
3-<4 1 2 8 130 76 60 19 8 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 1 126 0 439
4-<5 0 2 9 11 183 117 56 13 8 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 403
5-<6 1 3 13 22 22 545 239 249 92 14 118 2 6 0 0 3 2 0 1331
6-<7 0 1 4 5 7 8 169 93 58 12 20 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 381
7-<8 1 0 2 0 2 11 4 209 98 41 50 2 4 0 0 1 1 0 426
8-<9 0 1 1 1 0 8 6 3 185 68 128 13 22 3 0 2 4 0 445
9-<10 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 67 47 14 26 3 3 7 0 1 176
10-<11 1 1 3 3 72 79 4 6 13 6 374 67 212 49 13 174 78 1 1156
11-<12 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 13 3 6 1 1 1 0 32
12-<13 0 0 1 0 8 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 21 9 15 26 11 0 95
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 4 2 1 0 17
14-<15 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 1 5 1 14
15-<16 0 0 0 0 15 18 0 0 1 0 6 0 1 1 1 50 41 0 134
>=16 2 0 1 1 62 52 0 0 1 0 17 0 0 0 0 11 343 3 493
Total 14 63 207 289 500 922 502 586 460 211 775 112 298 78 40 282 734 6 6079

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jan-26
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 6 0 2 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
1-<2 11 17 40 14 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90
2-<3 42 5 91 77 85 34 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 88 0 431
3-<4 41 0 5 103 52 87 28 10 11 2 5 0 1 0 0 1 93 0 439
4-<5 45 1 3 11 90 115 81 25 24 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 403
5-<6 123 2 6 6 8 338 188 249 159 27 183 9 7 2 1 17 6 0 1331
6-<7 50 0 3 1 1 3 93 77 87 17 36 4 6 0 0 2 1 0 381
7-<8 48 0 1 0 0 4 2 98 70 66 104 6 15 3 5 1 3 0 426
8-<9 44 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 90 42 164 12 60 10 2 7 6 1 445
9-<10 18 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 26 46 15 23 8 12 17 7 0 176
10-<11 130 0 1 0 0 5 1 2 4 3 270 55 169 52 22 278 163 1 1156
11-<12 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 10 4 0 5 2 0 32
12-<13 9 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 7 12 29 22 0 95
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 4 3 1 17
14-<15 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 5 0 14
15-<16 19 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 62 0 134
>=16 67 0 1 0 14 14 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 394 1 493
Total 659 25 153 215 254 614 404 467 450 187 812 107 306 91 61 415 855 4 6079

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on December 05, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rou1nds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.