Global Backdrop

Domestic Scenario

Low growth-High inflation

Savings and Investments

Fiscal Constraints

Liquidity Conditions

External Sector

Corporate Sector Performance

Chapter II : Financial Institutions: Soundness and Resilience

Scheduled Commercial Banks

Performance, Vulnerabilities and Distress Dependencies

Resilience – Stress Tests

Regional Rural Banks

Scheduled Urban Co-operative Banks

Performance

Resilience – Stress Tests

Rural Co-operative Banks

Non-Banking Financial Companies

Performance

Resilience- Stress Tests

Interconnectedness

Chapter III : Financial Sector Regulation and Infrastructure

Global Regulatory Reforms and India’s Stance

Securities Market

Commodities Derivatives Market

Financial Safety Net - Deposit Insurance

Insurance Sector

Pension Sector

Financial Market Infrastructure

Payment and Settlement Systems

Annex 1: Systemic Risk Survey

Annex 2: Methodologies

LIST OF BOXES

1.1 The Corporate Bond Market in India

3.1 Peer- to- Peer Lending / Crowd Funding

3.2 Functioning and Regulation of ARCs and Recent Policy Developments

3.3 Risk Management Framework for Asset Managers in India

3.4 Relative Merits of Single CCP and Multiple CCP Structures

LIST OF CHARTS

1.1 Upward Movement in Asset Prices

1.2 Macroeconomic Risk Map

1.3 Growth – Inflation Dynamics in India

1.4 Household Saving and Expenditure on Valuables

1.5 Gross Capital Formation and GDP Growth

1.6 Resource Mobilisation in the Indian Capital Market

1.7 GoI’s Deficit Indicators

1.8 Movement in Money Market Variables

1.9 Improvements in the External Sector

1.10 Stock Market Movement and Institutional Investments

1.11 Corporate Sector Stability Map

1.12 Profile of Select Industries

1.13 Trends in Leverage, Interest Coverage and Profi tability Ratios – Major Sectors/Industries

2.1 Banking Stability Indicator

2.2 Banking Stability Map

2.3 Credit and Deposits Growth: y-o-y Basis

2.4 Capital Adequacy

2.5 Leverage Ratio of SCBs

2.6 Share of Major Sectors in Total Advances of SCBs

2.7 GNPAs of SCBs

2.8 Stressed Advances in Major Sectors - System Level

2.9 Stressed Sub-sectors

2.10 Major Sector-wise and Size-wise GNPA of SCBs

2.11 Growth of GNPAs vis-à-vis Advances

2.12 Components of Profitability: y-o-y Growth

2.13 Bank Group- wise Share in Total Assets vis-a-vis Total PAT of SCBs

2.14 RoA and Risk Adjusted RoA

2.15 Risk Provisions

2.16 Movements of BSX

2.17 Distress Between Specific Banks

2.18 Projection of System Level GNPAs and CRAR of SCBs

2.19 Projection of Bank Group- wise GNPA Ratio and CRAR

2.20 Projected Sectoral NPA Under Various Scenarios

2.21 Expected Loss: Bank Group- wise

2.22 Unexpected Losses: Bank Group- wise

2.23 Expected Shortfalls: Bank Group- wise

2.24 Expected Losses and Unexpected Losses: Bank-wise

2.25 Credit Risk

2.26 Credit Risk: Concentration

2.27 Liquidity Risk

2.28 Bottom-up Stress Tests – Credit and Market Risks

2.29 Bottom-up Stress Tests – Liquidity Risk

2.30 Share of off-balance Sheet Assets (Credit Equivalent) of SCBs

2.31 MTM of Total Derivatives - Baseline

2.32 Stress Tests - Impact of Shocks on Derivatives Portfolio of Select Banks
(Change in net MTM on application of a shock)

2.33 Trends in CRAR of NBFCs-ND-SI

2.34 Trends in Gross NPA Ratio

2.35 Trends in Return on Assets

2.36 Exposure to Sensitive Sectors

2.37 Dispersion in Interbank Borrowings to Outside Liabilities among Bank Groups

2.38 Trends in Connectivity in the Indian Interbank Market

2.39 Top 10 Interbank Node Risk Banks and their Shares in Other Activities

3.1 Trend in Price to Book Value Ratios of Listed Indian Banks

3.2 Share of Cash and Bank Balances in Total Assets of large NFCs

3.3 Income from Financial Activities of Non-Financial Companies and Treasury Income of Banks

3.4 Amount of Assets Sold by Banks to ARCs

3.5 Share of Bank Groups in Sale of Assets to ARCs

3.6 Performance Parameters of ARCs

3.7 Trend in Quarterly Incremental Number of Cases and Amounts under CDR Cell

3.8 Ratio of Average Daily Turnovers (Cash Markets to Derivatives Markets)

3.9 Product Share in Volumes of Exchange Traded Derivatives

3.10 Trends in Off Shore Derivative Instruments in Indian Equity Markets

3.11 Trends in Y-o-Y Growth in Subscription and AUM under National Pension System

3.12 Annual Growth in Volume and Value of PPIs

LIST OF TABLES

1.1 Real GDP Growth-Supply Side (per cent)

2.1 Profi tability of SCBs

2.2 Macroeconomic Scenario Assumptions (2014-15)

2.3 Credit Risk: Sectors

2.4 Credit Risk: Key Industries

2.5 Solvency Stress Tests : Comparison of Impacts of Various Shocks

2.6 Liquidity Risk – Utilisation of Undrawn Working Capital Sanctioned Limit
/ Undrawn Committed Lines of Credit / Devolvement of Letters of Credit-guarantees

2.7 Select Financial Soundness Indicators of SUCBs

2.8 Borrowing and Lending in the Interbank Market to Total Asset

2.9 Short -Term Funds to Total Funds Raised from the Interbank Market

2.10 Interbank Borrowing to Outside Liabilities

2.11 Banks’ Investments in Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies

2.12 Funds Raised by Banks from Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies

2.13 Investments by Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies in Banks

2.14 Solvency Contagion Triggered by Top 5 Net Borrowers in the Interbank Market

2.15 Contagion Triggered by Banks with Highest Impaired Asset Ratio