Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of July 2023 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS)1. The survey obtains current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation and own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during July 1-10, 2023, covering 6,047 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 50.2 per cent of this sample. Highlights: -
After persistent recovery for almost two years, consumer confidence for current period, as reflected in the current situation index (CSI)2, stood a shade lower than that witnessed in the previous survey round; improvement in respondents’ sentiment on income and spending was offset by somewhat higher pessimism on general economic and employment situation (Chart 1; Tables 1, 2, 5 and 6). -
Going forward, households expect improvement in general economic, employment and income conditions; they turned less pessimistic on one year ahead price situation vis-à-vis May 2023 round of the survey (Tables 1, 2, 3 and 5). -
The future expectation index (FEI) remained in optimistic terrain and recorded a marginal rise in the latest survey round (Chart 1). -
Sentiments on current income improved further and moved to optimistic zone for the first time in four years; future earnings expectations remain buoyant (Table 5). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3
| Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 21.6 | 15.4 | 63.0 | -41.5 | 46.4 | 14.9 | 38.8 | 7.6 | | Sep-22 | 26.2 | 14.6 | 59.2 | -33.0 | 46.5 | 15.4 | 38.1 | 8.4 | | Nov-22 | 28.0 | 16.3 | 55.7 | -27.8 | 48.0 | 15.6 | 36.4 | 11.6 | | Jan-23 | 28.3 | 19.6 | 52.1 | -23.7 | 50.2 | 16.6 | 33.2 | 17.0 | | Mar-23 | 31.4 | 16.9 | 51.7 | -20.4 | 49.9 | 15.1 | 35.0 | 15.0 | | May-23 | 32.1 | 19.0 | 48.9 | -16.8 | 51.0 | 15.8 | 33.2 | 17.8 | | Jul-23 | 30.4 | 18.5 | 51.1 | -20.7 | 51.1 | 15.1 | 33.8 | 17.2 |
| Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Improved | Remained Same | Worsened | Net Response | Will Improve | Will Remain Same | Will Worsen | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 28.1 | 17.3 | 54.6 | -26.5 | 50.7 | 17.2 | 32.0 | 18.7 | | Sep-22 | 28.4 | 17.6 | 54.0 | -25.7 | 49.4 | 17.3 | 33.3 | 16.1 | | Nov-22 | 31.8 | 18.6 | 49.6 | -17.8 | 51.5 | 18.3 | 30.3 | 21.2 | | Jan-23 | 30.0 | 20.1 | 49.9 | -19.9 | 51.8 | 18.0 | 30.2 | 21.6 | | Mar-23 | 32.2 | 19.9 | 47.9 | -15.7 | 52.9 | 17.1 | 30.1 | 22.8 | | May-23 | 32.1 | 20.2 | 47.7 | -15.6 | 52.1 | 18.7 | 29.2 | 22.9 | | Jul-23 | 30.8 | 21.0 | 48.2 | -17.5 | 51.4 | 18.3 | 30.3 | 21.1 |
| Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 95.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | -94.3 | 80.4 | 10.9 | 8.8 | -71.6 | | Sep-22 | 94.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | -93.6 | 79.9 | 11.0 | 9.1 | -70.8 | | Nov-22 | 94.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | -93.9 | 82.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | -73.6 | | Jan-23 | 93.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | -92.3 | 83.0 | 10.1 | 7.0 | -76.1 | | Mar-23 | 93.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | -92.9 | 84.3 | 9.0 | 6.7 | -77.5 | | May-23 | 92.2 | 6.4 | 1.4 | -90.8 | 82.7 | 10.0 | 7.3 | -75.4 | | Jul-23 | 92.7 | 6.0 | 1.3 | -91.4 | 80.9 | 10.2 | 8.9 | -72.0 |
| Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 88.5 | 8.9 | 2.6 | -85.9 | 81.8 | 13.6 | 4.6 | -77.3 | | Sep-22 | 89.6 | 7.8 | 2.6 | -87.0 | 80.6 | 14.5 | 4.9 | -75.7 | | Nov-22 | 87.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | -84.2 | 82.9 | 13.2 | 3.9 | -79.1 | | Jan-23 | 86.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | -83.6 | 80.3 | 15.5 | 4.1 | -76.2 | | Mar-23 | 86.5 | 10.0 | 3.5 | -82.9 | 81.4 | 14.0 | 4.6 | -76.8 | | May-23 | 84.0 | 12.5 | 3.4 | -80.6 | 81.8 | 14.1 | 4.1 | -77.8 | | Jul-23 | 84.5 | 11.8 | 3.7 | -80.8 | 80.8 | 14.8 | 4.4 | -76.4 | | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. |
| Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 18.2 | 46.0 | 35.9 | -17.7 | 51.6 | 40.0 | 8.4 | 43.3 | | Sep-22 | 20.2 | 45.5 | 34.4 | -14.2 | 51.3 | 39.8 | 8.9 | 42.4 | | Nov-22 | 20.9 | 46.1 | 32.9 | -12.0 | 52.5 | 39.9 | 7.6 | 44.9 | | Jan-23 | 21.4 | 49.0 | 29.6 | -8.3 | 54.5 | 38.7 | 6.9 | 47.6 | | Mar-23 | 22.2 | 49.7 | 28.1 | -5.9 | 54.1 | 38.4 | 7.5 | 46.7 | | May-23 | 23.9 | 49.7 | 26.3 | -2.4 | 53.8 | 39.4 | 6.9 | 46.9 | | Jul-23 | 25.4 | 49.9 | 24.8 | 0.6 | 54.7 | 38.6 | 6.7 | 48.0 |
| Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 72.6 | 21.1 | 6.3 | 66.3 | 73.0 | 22.4 | 4.6 | 68.3 | | Sep-22 | 75.9 | 17.5 | 6.6 | 69.2 | 74.2 | 20.7 | 5.2 | 69.0 | | Nov-22 | 74.9 | 19.2 | 5.9 | 69.0 | 75.0 | 20.3 | 4.7 | 70.2 | | Jan-23 | 73.9 | 20.6 | 5.5 | 68.4 | 75.5 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 70.8 | | Mar-23 | 75.0 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 69.6 | 75.4 | 19.9 | 4.6 | 70.8 | | May-23 | 73.4 | 21.3 | 5.3 | 68.1 | 73.8 | 21.7 | 4.6 | 69.2 | | Jul-23 | 74.5 | 20.5 | 5.0 | 69.6 | 73.8 | 21.3 | 4.8 | 69.0 |
| Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 82.0 | 13.7 | 4.3 | 77.7 | 80.0 | 16.5 | 3.6 | 76.4 | | Sep-22 | 85.2 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 15.4 | 3.7 | 77.3 | | Nov-22 | 84.7 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 81.0 | 81.1 | 15.4 | 3.5 | 77.7 | | Jan-23 | 84.1 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 80.5 | 81.3 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 77.8 | | Mar-23 | 85.3 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 82.1 | 81.7 | 14.8 | 3.5 | 78.2 | | May-23 | 84.0 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 80.8 | 81.3 | 15.2 | 3.5 | 77.8 | | Jul-23 | 85.3 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 82.3 | 81.0 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 77.5 |
| Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | | (Percentage responses) | | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | | Jul-22 | 18.7 | 35.9 | 45.5 | -26.8 | 29.3 | 38.5 | 32.2 | -2.9 | | Sep-22 | 20.9 | 32.5 | 46.7 | -25.8 | 29.5 | 37.6 | 33.0 | -3.6 | | Nov-22 | 22.4 | 33.8 | 43.8 | -21.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 32.2 | 0.6 | | Jan-23 | 22.1 | 35.2 | 42.8 | -20.7 | 31.9 | 38.4 | 29.8 | 2.1 | | Mar-23 | 25.2 | 34.8 | 40.0 | -14.8 | 34.5 | 36.8 | 28.8 | 5.7 | | May-23 | 25.8 | 38.2 | 36.1 | -10.3 | 35.3 | 37.5 | 27.2 | 8.2 | | Jul-23 | 26.6 | 36.9 | 36.5 | -10.0 | 34.8 | 37.6 | 27.6 | 7.3 |
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