The Consumer Confidence Survey provides an assessment of the economy based on responses received from selected individuals/households spread across six metropolitan cities viz., Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi. The survey captures qualitative information on 3 point scale viz., improve, remain same, or worsen. The assessments are analysed in two parts, viz., current situation as compared with a year ago and expectations for a year ahead. There are four blocks in the survey schedule covering broadly respondents’ perceptions on general economic conditions and own financial situation. The salient findings of the latest round of the survey, conducted during last week of August 2014 based on the responses of about 5,200 respondents are given below.
Highlights:
i. The current round of the survey reflects an improvement in consumer confidence as measured by Current Situation Index (CSI). The CSI rose by about 4.6 percentage points over the previous quarter due to improvement in positive perception on all parameters except prices. The Future Expectations Index (FEI) remained at about the same level as in the last round.
Consumer Confidence Index |
|
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Current Situation Index |
90.7 |
99.9 |
100.4 |
105.0 |
Future Expectation Index |
100.3 |
114.9 |
122.9 |
123.2 |
ii. One-year ahead outlook on economic conditions, after registering a rise in the last quarter, marginally declined in the present round. Current economic condition as compared to last year is still perceived to be negative (Table 1).
iii. Current household circumstances were assessed to be better as compared with the last round. As regards future household circumstances, more than 50 per cent of respondents reported improvement during last three rounds. Increase in salary and business income has influenced the perceptions on household circumstances (Table 2 and Table 3).
iv. A higher percentage of respondents reported increase in current income as compared with the last round. Similarly, perception on increase in income one-year ahead has become stronger. More than two thirds of the respondents reported positive income expectations in this round of survey (Table 4).
v. More than three-fourths of respondents reported that their spending rose in comparison with the position one-year ago. As regards future spending, the sentiment is less optimistic – but it has improved over the previous round. Cost of consumer goods and services remain the major factors to influence the spending perception (Table 5 and Table 6).
vi. There is some improvement in the perception in favour of purchase of motor vehicle and durable goods. However, sentiments for purchase of house and gold have deteriorated substantially as compared to June 2014 round of survey (Table 7).
vii. Current employment situation witnessed improvement as compared to the last three rounds. Employment outlook remains consistently positive (Table 8).
viii. As regards the price levels and inflation, current sentiments as well as future expectations do not show any improvement (Table 9 and Table 10).
Table 1: Perceptions on Economic Conditions |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Improve |
22.7 |
29.5 |
25.5 |
29.3 |
34.8 |
47.6 |
56.7 |
54.8 |
Remain same |
23.3 |
31.3 |
34.6 |
32.1 |
35.1 |
31.2 |
25.6 |
28.1 |
Worsen |
54.0 |
39.1 |
39.9 |
38.7 |
30.1 |
21.1 |
17.6 |
17.1 |
Net Response |
-31.2 |
-9.6 |
-14.4 |
-9.4 |
4.7 |
26.5 |
39.1 |
37.7 |
Table 2: Perceptions on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Improve |
23.7 |
32.4 |
36.5 |
40.3 |
37.1 |
52.9 |
59.7 |
58.1 |
Remain same |
38.6 |
41.3 |
36.3 |
33.7 |
43.3 |
34.7 |
29.5 |
30.3 |
Worsen |
37.7 |
26.2 |
27.2 |
26.1 |
19.6 |
12.4 |
10.9 |
11.7 |
Net Response |
-14.0 |
6.2 |
9.3 |
14.2 |
17.5 |
40.5 |
48.8 |
46.4 |
Table 3: Major Factors influencing views on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Salary and business income |
70.0 |
74.8 |
84.4 |
84.9 |
77.2 |
72.1 |
90.0 |
90.4 |
Interest and dividend income |
15.4 |
22.4 |
14.9 |
17.6 |
15.6 |
18.7 |
14.8 |
16.8 |
Income from real estate sales |
12.1 |
17.6 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
12.2 |
16.1 |
13.7 |
14.2 |
Prices |
78.8 |
81.7 |
74.4 |
71.9 |
70.9 |
75.8 |
73.1 |
70.3 |
Change in value of assets |
12.8 |
17.4 |
7.6 |
17.7 |
13.6 |
17.4 |
8.1 |
16.8 |
The number of dependent in my family |
19.7 |
33.2 |
20.4 |
31.5 |
20.4 |
30.0 |
19.1 |
32.8 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, the percentage responses may add up to be more than 100. |
Table 4: Perceptions on Income |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Increase |
30.9 |
34.3 |
39.1 |
47.2 |
45.4 |
58.9 |
63.9 |
67.0 |
Remain same |
53.5 |
54.2 |
46.7 |
38.4 |
46.4 |
35.8 |
30.8 |
27.8 |
Decrease |
15.5 |
11.5 |
14.3 |
14.4 |
8.2 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
Net Response |
15.4 |
22.8 |
24.8 |
32.7 |
37.2 |
53.6 |
58.7 |
61.9 |
Table 5: Perceptions on Spending |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Increase |
76.7 |
73.9 |
77.1 |
78.1 |
26.4 |
25.1 |
36.3 |
41.9 |
Remain same |
19.4 |
19.4 |
16.0 |
18.2 |
44.8 |
46.6 |
32.6 |
28.6 |
Decrease |
3.9 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
3.8 |
28.8 |
28.3 |
31.2 |
29.5 |
Net Response |
72.8 |
67.3 |
70.3 |
74.3 |
-2.4 |
-3.3 |
5.1 |
12.4 |
Table 6: Major Factors influencing Spending Perception |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Income |
Future income |
Non- financial assets |
Financial assets |
Expenditure on real estate |
Expenditure on consumer durables |
Number of dependents |
Cost of consumer goods |
Cost of services |
Dec-13 |
51.2 |
22.2 |
9.7 |
17.7 |
20.8 |
38.2 |
41.8 |
83.0 |
66.9 |
Mar-14 |
49.0 |
26.0 |
11.3 |
24.7 |
21.6 |
46.6 |
50.2 |
75.2 |
71.7 |
Jun-14 |
61.7 |
29.6 |
10.9 |
16.7 |
23.8 |
34.5 |
36.1 |
67.6 |
62.1 |
Sep-14 |
63.0 |
30.7 |
11.0 |
25.9 |
29.5 |
42.9 |
46.2 |
83.9 |
73.9 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of percentage relating to factors may be more than 100. |
Table 7: Perceptions on Outlays for Major Expenditure |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Motor Vehicle |
Yes |
14.4 |
21.1 |
17.9 |
20.4 |
Can’t Say |
17.3 |
21.9 |
20.6 |
21.9 |
No |
68.2 |
57.0 |
61.5 |
57.7 |
House |
Yes |
17.7 |
19.7 |
25.4 |
18.5 |
Can’t Say |
15.4 |
18.7 |
19.2 |
22.9 |
No |
67.0 |
61.6 |
55.4 |
58.6 |
Durable goods |
Yes |
21.9 |
20.2 |
29.7 |
36.8 |
Can’t Say |
18.6 |
27.3 |
21.8 |
21.0 |
No |
59.4 |
52.5 |
48.5 |
42.2 |
Gold |
Yes |
18.9 |
15.5 |
32.0 |
19.8 |
Can’t Say |
15.4 |
15.7 |
17.8 |
20.6 |
No |
65.8 |
68.8 |
50.2 |
59.6 |
Table 8: Perceptions on Employment |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Improve |
29.1 |
28.3 |
30.8 |
36.0 |
45.1 |
54.6 |
65.1 |
61.4 |
Remain Same |
36.5 |
43.0 |
39.0 |
35.3 |
34.7 |
29.9 |
24.8 |
29.0 |
Worsen |
34.4 |
28.7 |
30.2 |
28.7 |
20.2 |
15.5 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
Net Response |
-5.3 |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
7.3 |
24.9 |
39.0 |
54.9 |
51.9 |
Table 9: Perceptions on price level |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
|
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Increase |
94.2 |
88.9 |
89.7 |
92.1 |
83.0 |
73.6 |
76.7 |
77.6 |
Remain same |
5.1 |
9.1 |
8.8 |
5.1 |
14.0 |
19.9 |
16.1 |
15.8 |
Decrease |
0.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
6.6 |
Net Response |
-93.5 |
-86.9 |
-88.2 |
-89.2 |
-80.0 |
-67.2 |
-69.5 |
-71.0 |
Note: Perceptions of increase in prices is considered to be negative sentiments and decrease in prices is considered to be positive sentiments. The net responses are therefore, negative. |
Table 10: Perceptions on rate of change in price levels (Inflation) |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Dec-13 |
Mar-14 |
Jun-14 |
Sep-14 |
Increase |
93.4 |
83.8 |
87.1 |
88.2 |
87.8 |
80.8 |
84.0 |
85.9 |
Remain Same |
6.2 |
14.5 |
11.1 |
10.2 |
11.1 |
16.3 |
14.5 |
13.1 |
Decrease |
0.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
Net Response |
-93.0 |
-82.2 |
-85.4 |
-86.6 |
-86.6 |
-77.9 |
-82.4 |
-84.8 |
|