The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters since September 2007. The results of the survey represent views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India.
Twenty Seven professional forecasters participated in the latest survey round conducted in January 2015. The results of the survey in tabular form are presented in the Annex.
2. Quarterly Forecasts:
3. Long Term Forecasts:
Table A.1: Annual Forecasts for 2014-15 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2014-15 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GDP at factor cost (growth rate in per cent) | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.0 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.6 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 12.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 10.6 |
3 | Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP) | 30.4 | 30.7 | 31.1 | 29.0 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.1 | 28.7 | 32.4 | 27.2 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 13.2 | 13.2 | 16.0 | 11.4 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 13.4 | 13.9 | 16.0 | 11.4 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.1 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | 7.74 | 7.75 | 8.00 | 7.50 |
10 | CRR (end period) | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 7.3 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 35.9 | 36.4 | 58.5 | 4.5 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 334.2 | 333.0 | 360.0 | 322.0 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 5.0 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 1.0 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 484.0 | 479.6 | 548.0 | 462.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in percent) | 3.7 | 3.4 | 12.6 | -1.0 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -7.3 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -8.8 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 119.1 | 114.3 | 212.0 | 110.0 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -34.0 | -34.0 | -23.0 | -50.6 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -1.6 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -2.6 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 71.0 | 70.4 | 92.5 | 55.0 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
Table A.2: Annual Forecasts for 2015-16 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2015-16 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GDP at factor cost (growth rate in per cent) | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 3.3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 6.9 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current market price (growth rate in per cent) | 12.9 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 10.9 |
3 | Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP) | 31.3 | 31.3 | 32.5 | 29.5 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.8 | 29.7 | 32.0 | 27.0 |
5 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 14.4 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 |
6 | Bank Credit of Scheduled Commercial banks (growth rate in per cent) | 15.2 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 13.0 |
7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 |
8 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
9 | Repo Rate(end period) | 7.15 | 7.25 | 7.50 | 6.50 |
10 | CRR (end period) | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
11 | Yield of 91-Days Treasury Bills (end period) | 7.4 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 7.0 |
12 | YTM of Central Govt. Securities with term to maturity of 10-years (end period) | 7.4 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 6.7 |
13 | Overall Balance of Payments (in US $ bn.) | 36.3 | 33.7 | 68.8 | 5.0 |
14 | Merchandise Exports (in US $ bn.) | 355.7 | 353.0 | 414.0 | 317.0 |
15 | Merchandise Exports (growth rate in per cent) | 7.1 | 7.2 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
16 | Merchandise Imports (in US $ bn.) | 512.2 | 506.9 | 615.0 | 453.0 |
17 | Merchandise Imports (growth rate in per cent) | 6.1 | 6.4 | 12.0 | -2.0 |
18 | Merchandise Trade Balance (per cent of GDP) | -7.0 | -7.0 | -5.1 | -8.4 |
19 | Net Invisible Balance (in US $ bn.) | 125.8 | 119.7 | 218.0 | 111.5 |
20 | Current Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | -36.6 | -38.6 | -5.7 | -54.2 |
21 | Current Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -2.6 |
22 | Capital Account Balance (in US $ bn.) | 72.6 | 72.8 | 93.0 | 58.7 |
23 | Capital Account Balance (per cent of GDP) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
Table A.3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q3:2014-15 to Q3:2015-16 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q3: 2014-15 | Q4: 2014-15 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GDP at factor cost (growth rate in per cent) | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 | -2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -0.9 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 6.5 |
2 | Index of Industrial Production (growth rate in per cent) | 1.7 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
3 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 10.8 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 10.9 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 29.0 | 28.7 | 31.3 | 27.0 | 29.8 | 29.7 | 31.8 | 28.5 |
5 | ` per US Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | - | - | - | - | 62.48 | 62.50 | 64.56 | 60.00 |
6 | Repo Rate (end period) | - | - | - | - | 7.68 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.50 |
7 | CRR (end period) | - | - | - | - | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
8 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 80.6 | 80.0 | 87.2 | 77.5 | 83.7 | 85.2 | 89.1 | 77.3 |
9 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 120.2 | 120.0 | 127.4 | 114.0 | 116.1 | 116.9 | 125.5 | 104.0 |
10 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | - | - | - | - | 47.4 | 48.0 | 55.0 | 40.0 |
| Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts |
Q1: 2015-16 | Q2: 2015-16 | Q3: 2015-16 |
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min |
1 | Real GDP at factor cost (growth rate in per cent) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 |
b | Industry (growth rate in per cent) | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 3.6 |
c | Services (growth rate in per cent) | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 7.0 |
2 | Index of Industrial Production (growth rate in per cent) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.3 |
3 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 12.3 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 15.5 | 10.2 |
4 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP) | 30.4 | 30.0 | 32.4 | 28.6 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 32.2 | 28.7 | 30.3 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 28.7 |
5 | ` per US Dollar (RBI reference rate-end period) | 63.09 | 63.05 | 65.35 | 59.50 | 63.19 | 63.00 | 65.65 | 60.00 | 63.92 | 63.85 | 67.00 | 60.00 |
6 | Repo Rate (end period) | 7.49 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 7.25 | 7.41 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.25 | 7.32 | 7.25 | 7.50 | 7.00 |
7 | CRR (end period) | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
8 | Merchandise Export (in US$ bn.) | 81.9 | 80.5 | 90.9 | 76.6 | 84.6 | 83.8 | 91.1 | 81.5 | 86.0 | 84.2 | 95.2 | 80.5 |
9 | Merchandise Import (in US$ bn.) | 116.8 | 119.3 | 122.1 | 107.8 | 123.0 | 123.8 | 128.3 | 117.5 | 127.6 | 125.6 | 137.7 | 123.3 |
10 | Indian Crude Oil basket Price (in US$ per barrel) | 53.1 | 51.3 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 59.3 | 60.0 | 65.0 | 50.0 | 63.6 | 63.5 | 70.0 | 58.0 |