Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 21st round of its quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS)1, which captures qualitative assessment and expectations of major scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) on credit parameters (viz., loan demand and terms & conditions of loans) for major economic sectors2. The latest round of the survey collected senior loan officers’ assessment of credit parameters for Q2:2022-23 and expectations for Q3:2022-23. Owing to uncertainty driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional block was included in this survey round for assessing outlook for two quarters ahead as well as three quarters ahead. Highlights: A. Assessment for Q2:2022-23 -
Bankers assessed improvement in loan demand on a sequential basis across all major sectors (Chart 1 and Table 1). -
Respondents reported easy loan terms & conditions albeit with some lowering of pace for agriculture, mining, and infrastructure loans (Table 2). B. Expectations for Q3:2022-23 C. Expectations for Q4:2022-23 and Q1:2023-24 Table 1: Sector-wise Loan Demand - Net response3 | (Per cent) | Sectors | Assessment Period | Expectations Period | Q1:2022-23 | Q2:2022-23 | Q2:2022-23 | Q3:2022-23 | All Sectors | 33.9 | 40.0 | 42.9 | 43.3 | Agriculture | 36.2 | 38.3 | 34.5 | 41.7 | Mining and Quarrying Sector | 14.3 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 12.1 | Manufacturing | 34.5 | 41.7 | 43.1 | 48.3 | Infrastructure | 37.5 | 41.7 | 37.5 | 40.0 | Services | 35.7 | 46.7 | 44.6 | 45.0 | Retail/Personal | 42.0 | 50.0 | 44.4 | 53.6 | Table 2: Sector-wise Loan Terms and Conditions - Net response | (Per cent) | Sectors | Assessment Period | Expectations Period | Q1:2022-23 | Q2:2022-23 | Q2:2022-23 | Q3:2022-23 | All Sectors | 8.9 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 12.1 | Agriculture | 13.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 20.0 | Mining and Quarrying Sector | 8.9 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | Manufacturing | 19.0 | 20.7 | 10.3 | 31.0 | Infrastructure | 12.1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 12.1 | Services | 19.6 | 22.4 | 16.1 | 22.4 | Retail/Personal | 18.8 | 19.6 | 18.8 | 28.6 | Table 3: Sector-wise Expectations for extended period - Net response | (Per cent) | Sectors | Loan Demand | Loan Terms and Conditions | Q4:2022-23 | Q1:2023-24 | Q4:2022-23 | Q1:2023-24 | All Sectors | 46.7 | 36.7 | 18.3 | 20.0 | Agriculture | 45.0 | 41.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | Mining and Quarrying Sector | 15.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | Manufacturing | 41.7 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 21.7 | Infrastructure | 43.3 | 46.7 | 11.7 | 16.7 | Services | 55.0 | 48.3 | 16.7 | 16.7 | Retail/Personal | 51.7 | 50.0 | 26.7 | 28.3 | Note: Please see the excel file for time series data. |