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Date : Dec 06, 2024
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of November 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during November 2-11, 2024, in 19 major cities, with 6,091 valid responses, where female participation was 52.9 per cent.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median perception of current inflation rose by 30 basis points (bps) to 8.4 per cent, as compared to the previous survey round [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. Median inflation expectation for three months horizon moderated marginally by 10 bps to 9.1 per cent, whereas it inched up by 10 bps to 10.1 per cent for one year ahead period [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  3. The share of households anticipating higher inflation for the three months ahead was a shade lower vis-à-vis the previous survey round due to anticipation of lower pressures from non-food items and cost of services [Table 1(a)].

  4. Compared to September 2024 round of the survey, somewhat larger share of respondents expects the year ahead price and inflation to increase, mainly due to higher pressures from food items and housing related expenses [Table 1(b)].

  5. One year ahead price expectation of households is closely aligned with food prices and housing related expenses [Table 4].

Chart 1a. Median Inflation Rate -Perception and Three Months ahead Expectation & Chart 1b. Median Inflation Rate -Perception and One Year ahead Expectation

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-23 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 74.1 0.93 80.6 0.81 82.3 0.77 79.7 0.89 79.3 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 50.8 1.13 59.1 1.13 60.5 1.13 55.5 1.21 53.6 1.24
Price increase similar to current rate 19.1 0.85 17.5 0.83 17.3 0.86 19.2 0.86 19.9 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.42 4.0 0.43 4.5 0.48 5.0 0.55 5.8 0.49
No changes in prices 21.2 0.88 16.6 0.77 14.6 0.71 17.9 0.85 18.7 0.87
Decline in prices 4.7 0.45 2.8 0.32 3.1 0.37 2.5 0.32 2.0 0.29
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.5 0.90 81.8 0.74 84.2 0.70 83.9 0.75 83.9 0.75
Price increase more than current rate 53.7 1.04 61.0 1.07 62.1 1.03 60.7 1.07 60.7 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 16.1 0.74 15.3 0.74 16.0 0.75 16.7 0.77 17.0 0.81
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.47 5.5 0.46 6.1 0.52 6.6 0.58 6.2 0.50
No changes in prices 15.5 0.76 12.1 0.64 10.2 0.57 11.2 0.67 11.1 0.64
Decline in prices 9.0 0.57 6.1 0.46 5.6 0.47 4.9 0.42 5.0 0.44
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 73.8 0.87 75.0 0.85 77.0 0.81 76.1 0.92 75.9 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 52.4 1.04 53.7 1.11 54.5 1.10 52.4 1.11 51.7 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 16.1 0.72 15.6 0.72 16.2 0.79 17.7 0.78 17.9 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.46 5.7 0.50 6.2 0.52 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.50
No changes in prices 19.5 0.77 19.3 0.78 17.6 0.74 19.1 0.85 19.9 0.85
Decline in prices 6.7 0.48 5.7 0.43 5.4 0.48 4.7 0.42 4.2 0.39
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 63.8 0.98 68.2 0.94 68.2 0.97 64.9 1.03 66.5 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 45.5 1.02 48.3 1.10 49.6 1.09 45.9 1.11 46.3 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 13.4 0.68 15.2 0.74 13.9 0.73 14.2 0.71 14.5 0.70
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.43 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.48 5.7 0.50
No changes in prices 25.9 0.89 23.4 0.86 23.4 0.88 25.2 0.97 24.8 0.89
Decline in prices 10.3 0.59 8.5 0.53 8.4 0.58 9.8 0.55 8.7 0.55
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 76.8 0.88 80.4 0.81 78.6 0.84 77.7 0.88 78.9 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 57.2 1.09 59.3 1.06 59.6 1.07 56.9 1.11 57.4 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 15.5 0.72 16.7 0.77 14.8 0.78 16.3 0.75 16.4 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.37 4.3 0.44 4.1 0.45 4.5 0.48 5.1 0.46
No changes in prices 20.0 0.83 16.7 0.77 18.2 0.78 19.1 0.87 18.2 0.79
Decline in prices 3.2 0.36 3.0 0.34 3.2 0.37 3.3 0.35 2.9 0.33
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 63.3 0.96 68.6 0.98 71.0 0.95 66.9 1.04 66.3 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 43.7 1.09 49.2 1.12 52.7 1.12 46.9 1.15 46.6 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 15.5 0.70 14.4 0.68 13.6 0.70 15.5 0.73 14.8 0.70
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.40 5.0 0.46 4.6 0.46 4.5 0.46 5.0 0.44
No changes in prices 31.5 0.93 27.3 0.94 25.3 0.90 29.8 1.01 30.7 0.98
Decline in prices 5.1 0.48 4.1 0.39 3.7 0.38 3.2 0.35 2.9 0.33
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Nov-23 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.0 0.65 89.1 0.64 90.6 0.60 89.4 0.73 89.6 0.67
Price increase more than current rate 67.2 1.07 67.9 1.14 68.6 1.12 66.5 1.20 66.9 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.87 17.8 0.90 18.3 0.86 18.6 0.91 18.6 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.38 3.5 0.41 3.7 0.43 4.4 0.50 4.1 0.40
No changes in prices 8.4 0.56 7.9 0.56 6.6 0.50 8.6 0.67 8.2 0.62
Decline in prices 2.7 0.35 3.0 0.34 2.9 0.35 2.0 0.28 2.2 0.30
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.1 0.71 86.0 0.68 87.1 0.65 86.6 0.78 89.0 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 63.2 1.06 62.8 1.10 63.5 1.09 61.8 1.20 64.4 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.83 18.3 0.86 19.0 0.84 19.2 0.85 19.3 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.41 4.9 0.49 4.6 0.48 5.6 0.55 5.3 0.48
No changes in prices 8.8 0.56 9.3 0.58 7.9 0.52 9.7 0.66 7.3 0.53
Decline in prices 5.1 0.44 4.7 0.39 5.0 0.43 3.8 0.38 3.7 0.38
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.6 0.78 82.1 0.79 82.9 0.77 82.4 0.85 81.9 0.81
Price increase more than current rate 60.7 1.09 59.8 1.13 61.2 1.12 58.3 1.20 56.7 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 17.4 0.80 17.3 0.80 16.9 0.80 18.5 0.83 19.5 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.42 5.1 0.47 4.8 0.46 5.6 0.57 5.6 0.48
No changes in prices 12.9 0.65 12.9 0.68 12.4 0.64 14.0 0.77 14.7 0.76
Decline in prices 4.5 0.43 5.0 0.44 4.7 0.44 3.6 0.37 3.4 0.36
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 75.5 0.89 76.8 0.83 77.4 0.83 76.2 0.93 76.8 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 55.3 1.07 56.0 1.12 56.6 1.12 54.5 1.16 54.8 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.77 16.4 0.79 16.1 0.76 16.5 0.79 16.9 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.39 4.4 0.44 4.8 0.49 5.1 0.50 5.0 0.45
No changes in prices 17.7 0.76 16.6 0.72 16.3 0.73 17.3 0.79 17.6 0.81
Decline in prices 6.8 0.50 6.6 0.47 6.3 0.48 6.5 0.49 5.6 0.46
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 87.9 0.68 89.2 0.64 88.2 0.66 87.7 0.74 88.8 0.70
Price increase more than current rate 68.5 1.02 68.7 1.02 66.6 1.05 65.9 1.07 66.7 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.78 16.3 0.75 17.7 0.80 17.0 0.79 17.6 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 3.1 0.36 4.2 0.45 3.9 0.43 4.8 0.53 4.5 0.45
No changes in prices 9.4 0.61 8.4 0.57 8.6 0.55 8.9 0.60 8.7 0.61
Decline in prices 2.7 0.34 2.4 0.31 3.2 0.36 3.4 0.40 2.5 0.30
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 80.8 0.81 82.1 0.77 83.4 0.76 82.2 0.85 81.7 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 59.2 1.08 58.9 1.13 61.6 1.17 58.8 1.18 58.4 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.80 18.6 0.83 17.4 0.82 17.9 0.80 18.3 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.40 4.6 0.44 4.4 0.45 5.5 0.57 4.9 0.44
No changes in prices 16.3 0.74 14.7 0.71 13.2 0.67 15.3 0.80 15.7 0.84
Decline in prices 2.9 0.36 3.2 0.34 3.4 0.39 2.4 0.30 2.6 0.32
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Nov-24
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.2 0.13 8.6 0.19 9.9 0.14 9.3 0.29 9.8 0.16 10.1 0.15
Female 8.8 0.12 8.2 0.16 9.6 0.13 9.0 0.21 9.7 0.15 10.1 0.14
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 7.7 0.35 6.7 0.36 8.2 0.36 7.2 0.35 8.5 0.40 7.7 0.35
Other Employees 8.8 0.17 8.2 0.20 9.6 0.18 8.8 0.23 9.7 0.21 9.9 0.29
Self Employed 9.4 0.21 9.2 0.51 10.1 0.22 10.0 0.32 10.0 0.26 10.3 0.20
Homemaker 8.8 0.14 8.2 0.20 9.5 0.15 8.9 0.25 9.6 0.19 10.0 0.19
Retired Persons 9.5 0.35 9.3 0.78 10.5 0.39 9.9 0.65 10.2 0.49 10.3 0.35
Daily Workers 9.0 0.25 8.8 0.34 9.8 0.27 9.3 0.39 9.6 0.33 9.8 0.54
Other category 8.6 0.22 7.6 0.28 9.4 0.22 8.7 0.29 9.6 0.26 9.7 0.41
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.3 0.17 7.7 0.24 9.2 0.18 8.6 0.21 9.6 0.22 9.7 0.37
25 to 30 years 8.4 0.19 7.8 0.25 9.4 0.21 8.8 0.25 9.5 0.24 9.8 0.30
30 to 35 years 9.0 0.20 8.5 0.28 9.7 0.21 9.2 0.37 10.0 0.24 10.2 0.16
35 to 40 years 8.9 0.19 8.5 0.28 9.7 0.21 9.4 0.43 9.9 0.25 10.1 0.23
40 to 45 years 9.2 0.22 9.0 0.41 9.9 0.23 9.8 0.38 9.4 0.29 9.9 0.40
45 to 50 years 9.1 0.22 9.0 0.58 9.8 0.23 9.1 0.43 9.7 0.29 10.0 0.37
50 to 55 years 10.0 0.26 9.9 0.44 10.7 0.27 10.3 0.30 10.3 0.35 10.5 0.31
55 to 60 years 9.1 0.30 8.6 0.45 10.0 0.30 9.1 0.55 9.4 0.37 9.5 0.58
60 years and above 9.3 0.26 8.4 0.41 9.9 0.28 9.3 0.52 9.8 0.32 10.0 0.40
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.6 0.27 6.8 0.24 8.9 0.39 7.9 0.29 8.6 0.55 8.1 0.42
Bengaluru 6.9 0.20 5.7 0.13 7.9 0.21 6.6 0.38 8.6 0.22 8.2 0.29
Bhopal 10.1 0.73 10.2 0.54 11.3 0.60 10.9 0.88 10.8 0.67 11.0 1.14
Bhubaneswar 9.6 0.74 9.9 0.68 10.9 0.48 10.7 0.56 10.9 0.48 11.0 0.73
Chennai 9.0 0.34 9.8 0.52 9.7 0.48 10.2 0.79 10.8 0.53 11.8 1.11
Delhi 9.4 0.21 9.0 0.38 9.9 0.21 9.4 0.40 9.8 0.24 10.0 0.31
Guwahati 9.3 0.45 10.3 0.43 9.8 0.51 10.3 0.73 10.4 0.67 11.0 0.67
Hyderabad 8.8 0.39 8.3 0.87 9.7 0.40 8.7 0.59 10.4 0.40 10.7 0.50
Jaipur 7.3 0.39 7.0 0.53 8.0 0.37 7.7 0.34 7.2 0.54 7.3 0.65
Jammu 11.2 1.51 11.8 3.07 9.4 1.21 9.4 1.59 8.6 1.19 8.8 1.70
Kolkata 11.0 0.33 10.5 0.22 11.7 0.33 12.2 0.96 11.4 0.31 12.5 1.05
Lucknow 9.0 0.33 8.9 0.61 9.1 0.39 8.4 0.67 9.8 0.37 10.0 0.43
Mumbai 9.1 0.27 8.3 0.25 10.0 0.31 9.9 0.36 9.7 0.39 10.4 0.24
Nagpur 8.3 0.45 7.8 0.64 9.7 0.49 9.0 0.79 9.0 1.06 9.9 1.12
Patna 7.8 0.46 7.1 0.52 8.4 0.44 8.1 0.65 8.0 0.61 8.3 0.60
Thiruvananthapuram 6.7 0.64 5.6 0.40 8.2 0.78 7.3 0.73 9.7 0.87 9.3 0.92
Chandigarh 10.5 0.58 10.1 0.48 10.5 0.63 10.2 0.56 10.4 0.67 10.4 0.56
Ranchi 9.4 0.35 8.6 0.35 9.7 0.35 8.9 0.42 8.6 0.80 8.7 0.53
Raipur 9.9 0.56 10.2 0.59 10.2 0.53 10.2 0.47 9.8 0.73 10.3 0.65
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Nov-23 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.1 0.18 9.6 0.10 10.1 0.10
May-24 8.7 0.10 8.0 0.13 9.8 0.10 9.2 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.9 0.19
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Sep-24 8.6 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.10 9.2 0.23 9.6 0.12 10.0 0.14
Nov-24 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Nov-23 66.5 61.8 57.0 60.7 66.4
May-24 67.4 67.2 63.2 67.2 68.0
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
Sep-24 66.0 66.4 61.6 65.6 67.5
Nov-24 65.7 66.2 61.0 64.1 71.3
One Year Ahead
Nov-23 74.8 73.9 68.1 75.3 73.9
May-24 76.1 74.5 69.5 76.8 75.0
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
Sep-24 78.8 75.1 68.7 77.9 75.9
Nov-24 79.6 73.8 70.1 75.7 74.4

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Nov-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8
1-<2 0 31 17 8 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62
2-<3 1 14 85 80 41 17 2 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 247
3-<4 0 1 15 81 72 66 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 255
4-<5 0 3 12 9 122 86 41 17 7 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 301
5-<6 1 3 13 29 40 435 170 180 90 9 82 0 0 0 0 4 2 1 1059
6-<7 0 1 4 7 3 11 195 115 74 26 15 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 456
7-<8 0 2 13 4 3 14 5 184 129 40 55 5 3 1 0 2 0 0 460
8-<9 0 0 2 2 2 6 3 8 203 101 123 16 18 3 0 1 3 0 491
9-<10 0 1 1 1 0 8 5 5 6 81 71 18 25 4 6 9 5 1 247
10-<11 1 2 9 7 6 58 17 9 15 15 436 96 220 46 14 215 82 0 1248
11-<12 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 1 16 5 30 1 4 0 0 63
12-<13 0 0 1 1 3 5 1 1 2 0 8 4 33 5 17 27 8 0 116
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 2 3 0 15
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 6 0 15
15-<16 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 1 0 0 10 0 2 2 1 85 118 0 228
>=16 0 0 3 0 2 13 1 2 4 5 23 0 3 0 2 23 737 2 820
Total 8 58 176 230 296 734 458 529 532 278 830 156 312 100 51 372 966 5 6091

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Nov-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8
1-<2 9 13 18 14 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 62
2-<3 25 3 50 64 45 38 10 2 5 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 247
3-<4 32 0 5 36 59 61 35 8 6 3 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 255
4-<5 36 0 2 5 69 58 53 27 29 7 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 301
5-<6 113 1 6 6 29 220 116 186 130 35 174 3 7 2 1 18 8 4 1059
6-<7 46 0 0 0 4 8 110 76 112 30 48 7 8 1 1 4 1 0 456
7-<8 56 0 2 1 0 8 3 94 88 61 95 14 24 2 3 8 1 0 460
8-<9 48 0 1 0 2 3 3 2 87 52 173 28 53 13 1 18 7 0 491
9-<10 22 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 46 39 33 46 7 11 20 17 1 247
10-<11 108 0 3 2 3 19 2 1 7 12 258 46 178 65 61 264 219 0 1248
11-<12 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 11 27 1 6 6 0 63
12-<13 14 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 16 9 17 39 16 1 116
13-<14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 7 3 0 15
14-<15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 15
15-<16 24 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 5 44 148 0 228
>=16 84 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 31 0 0 1 2 13 680 2 820
Total 629 18 89 132 215 422 333 401 465 248 846 138 345 128 109 448 1115 10 6091

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on October 09, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

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