Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of May 2025 round of its bi-monthly urban consumer confidence survey (UCCS)1. The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2025, covering 6,090 respondents. Highlights: -
Despite improvements in employment and price conditions, consumer confidence for the current period remained stable due to marginal decline in sentiments on the other survey parameters. The Current Situation Index (CSI)2 moderated by 0.1 points to 95.4 in May 2025 (Chart 1; Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6). -
Consumer confidence for the year ahead improved further owing to elevated optimism in all survey parameters. Future Expectations Index (FEI) rose by 1 point to 123.4 in the latest survey round (Chart 1; Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6). -
Pessimism about the current price level and inflation continued to ease for the second consecutive round. Households also expect a decline in both price and inflationary pressures over the coming year (Table 3 and 4). -
Households remain firmly optimistic on future earnings even though their sentiment on current earnings remained around its March 2025 level (Table 5). Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3
Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 40.0 | 22.6 | 37.4 | 2.6 | 59.0 | 15.6 | 25.4 | 33.5 | Jul-24 | 36.3 | 22.4 | 41.3 | -5.0 | 55.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 26.1 | Sep-24 | 37.3 | 21.1 | 41.6 | -4.4 | 55.5 | 16.0 | 28.6 | 26.9 | Nov-24 | 35.8 | 21.3 | 42.9 | -7.1 | 54.9 | 17.2 | 27.9 | 27.0 | Jan-25 | 34.9 | 22.1 | 43.0 | -8.0 | 55.2 | 15.8 | 29.0 | 26.2 | Mar-25 | 34.7 | 24.7 | 40.6 | -5.9 | 56.6 | 14.9 | 28.5 | 28.0 | May-25 | 35.7 | 22.4 | 41.9 | -6.2 | 57.9 | 13.4 | 28.7 | 29.2 | Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 36.8 | 23.0 | 40.2 | -3.3 | 58.0 | 18.3 | 23.7 | 34.3 | Jul-24 | 34.5 | 23.0 | 42.6 | -8.1 | 54.2 | 18.4 | 27.4 | 26.8 | Sep-24 | 35.5 | 21.8 | 42.8 | -7.3 | 54.2 | 18.9 | 26.9 | 27.3 | Nov-24 | 34.6 | 23.0 | 42.4 | -7.8 | 54.6 | 18.9 | 26.5 | 28.1 | Jan-25 | 34.5 | 22.7 | 42.7 | -8.2 | 54.7 | 18.3 | 27.0 | 27.6 | Mar-25 | 35.5 | 23.0 | 41.5 | -6.1 | 56.4 | 16.5 | 27.1 | 29.3 | May-25 | 36.2 | 21.8 | 42.1 | -5.9 | 56.9 | 16.1 | 27.0 | 29.8 | Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 90.5 | 7.8 | 1.6 | -88.9 | 79.0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | -68.4 | Jul-24 | 93.3 | 6.0 | 0.7 | -92.6 | 82.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | -74.3 | Sep-24 | 93.3 | 5.8 | 0.9 | -92.4 | 82.0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | -73.3 | Nov-24 | 94.3 | 5.0 | 0.7 | -93.6 | 82.3 | 9.2 | 8.5 | -73.8 | Jan-25 | 93.0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | -92.0 | 83.0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | -75.1 | Mar-25 | 91.0 | 7.8 | 1.3 | -89.7 | 82.2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | -73.8 | May-25 | 90.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | -88.5 | 82.5 | 8.1 | 9.4 | -73.1 | Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)* | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 77.8 | 15.1 | 7.1 | -70.6 | 79.1 | 16.0 | 4.9 | -74.3 | Jul-24 | 80.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | -74.6 | 79.4 | 16.2 | 4.4 | -75.0 | Sep-24 | 80.7 | 13.0 | 6.2 | -74.5 | 78.7 | 15.9 | 5.4 | -73.4 | Nov-24 | 82.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | -77.2 | 79.3 | 15.1 | 5.7 | -73.6 | Jan-25 | 80.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | -74.2 | 79.9 | 14.5 | 5.7 | -74.2 | Mar-25 | 79.4 | 14.0 | 6.7 | -72.7 | 78.5 | 15.0 | 6.5 | -72.0 | May-25 | 78.0 | 14.8 | 7.2 | -70.7 | 78.1 | 14.7 | 7.2 | -70.8 | *Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase. | Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 25.3 | 52.3 | 22.4 | 2.9 | 56.9 | 36.9 | 6.2 | 50.7 | Jul-24 | 24.4 | 50.8 | 24.9 | -0.5 | 55.9 | 37.3 | 6.8 | 49.1 | Sep-24 | 24.1 | 51.6 | 24.3 | -0.3 | 55.8 | 38.2 | 6.0 | 49.9 | Nov-24 | 23.8 | 51.7 | 24.5 | -0.7 | 56.6 | 37.1 | 6.4 | 50.2 | Jan-25 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 23.0 | -1.0 | 55.9 | 37.4 | 6.8 | 49.1 | Mar-25 | 23.8 | 53.0 | 23.3 | 0.5 | 57.5 | 36.0 | 6.5 | 51.0 | May-25 | 24.1 | 52.2 | 23.7 | 0.4 | 58.0 | 36.3 | 5.7 | 52.3 | Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 76.2 | 20.1 | 3.8 | 72.5 | 77.9 | 18.1 | 4.0 | 73.9 | Jul-24 | 78.9 | 18.0 | 3.1 | 75.8 | 79.5 | 16.5 | 3.9 | 75.6 | Sep-24 | 80.4 | 16.9 | 2.7 | 77.6 | 79.6 | 16.9 | 3.6 | 76.0 | Nov-24 | 80.9 | 17.2 | 1.9 | 79.0 | 80.8 | 16.4 | 2.8 | 78.0 | Jan-25 | 79.3 | 19.4 | 1.3 | 77.9 | 78.8 | 18.3 | 2.9 | 75.9 | Mar-25 | 80.1 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 78.9 | 79.6 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 77.2 | May-25 | 78.7 | 19.9 | 1.4 | 77.3 | 81.1 | 16.4 | 2.5 | 78.6 | Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 85.6 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 82.9 | 84.7 | 12.3 | 3.1 | 81.6 | Jul-24 | 87.3 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 85.1 | 85.0 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 82.0 | Sep-24 | 87.9 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 86.2 | 84.9 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 82.2 | Nov-24 | 88.6 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 86.9 | 85.9 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 83.3 | Jan-25 | 87.6 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 86.0 | 85.1 | 12.3 | 2.6 | 82.5 | Mar-25 | 87.4 | 12.0 | 0.6 | 86.9 | 86.2 | 12.1 | 1.8 | 84.4 | May-25 | 87.5 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 86.1 | 86.9 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 85.1 | Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items | (Percentage responses) | Survey Round | Current Perception | One year ahead Expectation | Increased | Remained Same | Decreased | Net Response | Will Increase | Will Remain Same | Will Decrease | Net Response | May-24 | 30.5 | 35.4 | 34.1 | -3.7 | 37.4 | 35.2 | 27.4 | 9.9 | Jul-24 | 29.0 | 36.7 | 34.4 | -5.4 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 27.0 | 10.3 | Sep-24 | 27.6 | 40.2 | 32.3 | -4.7 | 36.4 | 37.8 | 25.8 | 10.6 | Nov-24 | 30.2 | 37.2 | 32.6 | -2.4 | 38.4 | 35.0 | 26.6 | 11.8 | Jan-25 | 29.2 | 38.5 | 32.3 | -3.1 | 37.4 | 36.1 | 26.5 | 11.0 | Mar-25 | 28.5 | 40.9 | 30.7 | -2.2 | 37.7 | 37.7 | 24.6 | 13.1 | May-25 | 27.8 | 41.1 | 31.2 | -3.4 | 38.2 | 37.3 | 24.5 | 13.8 | |