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Date : Aug 06, 2021
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the July 2021 round of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey was conducted through field interviews, wherever possible, and telephonic interviews elsewhere, during June 28 to July 9, 2021 in 18 major cities. The results2 are based on responses from 5,963 urban households3.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median inflation perception for the current period remained elevated at 10.3 per cent [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. Median inflation expectations for three months and one year ahead period hardened by 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in the latest survey round. [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  3. Over 60 per cent of the respondents expect higher general inflation over the next quarter as well as over the next one year [Tables 1a and 1b].

  4. One year ahead expectations on general prices and inflation were mostly aligned with the respondents’ surmise for the cost of non-food products and services [Table 4].

  5. Households expect higher rise in food prices over three month horizon when compared to that over one year horizon [Tables 1a and 1b].
Chart 1

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 83.5 0.92 83.7 0.89 86.6 0.74 83.7 0.68 85.9 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 52.2 1.14 56.0 1.26 58.4 1.14 58.5 0.91 63.0 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 26.0 1.03 22.4 0.95 24.1 0.94 21.2 0.76 19.6 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.54 5.3 0.53 4.1 0.50 4.0 0.37 3.3 0.38
No changes in prices 14.0 0.84 14.3 0.86 11.1 0.71 14.0 0.63 11.3 0.70
Decline in prices 2.5 0.43 1.9 0.30 2.3 0.29 2.3 0.30 2.8 0.40
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.3 0.86 80.9 0.95 85.2 0.70 84.4 0.72 84.0 0.81
Price increase more than current rate 54.7 1.08 54.2 1.16 61.2 1.01 60.2 0.92 61.0 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 21.9 0.89 20.0 0.95 18.1 0.81 19.4 0.75 17.6 0.89
Price increase less than current rate 5.7 0.47 6.7 0.57 6.0 0.55 4.8 0.38 5.4 0.53
No changes in prices 13.2 0.75 13.0 0.82 9.3 0.60 11.8 0.63 10.5 0.65
Decline in prices 4.5 0.56 6.1 0.54 5.5 0.45 3.9 0.39 5.5 0.53
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 79.1 0.99 79.3 0.98 81.0 0.78 78.6 0.79 82.6 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 48.3 1.11 51.6 1.20 57.0 1.00 53.1 0.95 59.0 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 24.6 0.98 20.9 0.90 19.4 0.77 19.8 0.75 18.8 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 0.51 6.7 0.56 4.7 0.43 5.6 0.44 4.7 0.50
No changes in prices 15.2 0.87 16.9 0.91 12.9 0.69 17.1 0.72 12.3 0.73
Decline in prices 5.6 0.59 3.8 0.40 6.2 0.48 4.3 0.42 5.1 0.51
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 57.8 1.14 64.3 1.11 68.1 0.92 58.8 0.96 65.6 1.10
Price increase more than current rate 34.7 1.07 42.5 1.15 46.0 0.98 37.7 0.94 45.1 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 17.6 0.87 16.8 0.77 17.7 0.74 16.4 0.70 16.6 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.48 5.0 0.49 4.4 0.44 4.7 0.40 4.0 0.43
No changes in prices 28.4 1.00 27.2 1.05 24.6 0.84 32.2 0.90 25.3 0.99
Decline in prices 13.8 0.86 8.4 0.58 7.3 0.50 9.0 0.56 9.1 0.66
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 46.9 1.08 66.1 1.11 68.9 0.93 54.9 0.94 64.7 1.13
Price increase more than current rate 28.1 0.98 45.1 1.20 48.4 1.03 36.5 0.92 45.9 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 14.9 0.78 16.2 0.79 16.7 0.75 14.4 0.67 14.5 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.39 4.8 0.49 3.8 0.40 3.9 0.36 4.2 0.46
No changes in prices 29.9 1.03 24.6 1.02 22.2 0.86 30.5 0.89 23.7 0.99
Decline in prices 23.2 0.95 9.3 0.66 8.9 0.54 14.6 0.69 11.6 0.74
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 70.1 1.06 68.8 1.06 75.6 0.90 67.6 0.89 74.3 1.02
Price increase more than current rate 43.3 1.11 45.7 1.15 51.6 1.02 44.6 0.94 52.5 1.19
Price increase similar to current rate 21.2 0.92 18.5 0.81 19.4 0.79 18.0 0.71 17.3 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 5.6 0.49 4.6 0.50 4.5 0.44 5.0 0.40 4.5 0.45
No changes in prices 25.7 0.99 27.4 1.02 20.8 0.84 29.2 0.87 22.0 0.95
Decline in prices 4.2 0.52 3.8 0.47 3.6 0.36 3.2 0.35 3.7 0.43
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 84.6 0.87 88.0 0.80 88.7 0.61 86.9 0.65 86.8 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 55.9 1.12 62.9 1.23 63.4 1.07 62.4 0.91 65.6 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 24.3 0.93 21.2 0.95 21.4 0.87 20.3 0.75 18.3 0.93
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.46 3.9 0.43 3.8 0.44 4.2 0.38 2.9 0.38
No changes in prices 12.9 0.82 9.6 0.75 8.5 0.54 10.4 0.58 10.1 0.68
Decline in prices 2.5 0.35 2.4 0.33 2.8 0.32 2.7 0.33 3.1 0.41
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.3 1.00 80.5 0.96 81.7 0.74 81.7 0.76 80.8 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 45.2 1.10 53.0 1.21 54.6 1.01 53.5 0.95 55.9 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 24.1 0.96 22.6 0.96 22.2 0.83 22.6 0.77 20.7 0.98
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.50 4.9 0.49 4.9 0.46 5.6 0.43 4.2 0.45
No changes in prices 17.4 0.88 13.4 0.84 12.0 0.61 12.5 0.64 12.6 0.73
Decline in prices 7.3 0.63 6.1 0.55 6.3 0.45 5.8 0.46 6.6 0.54
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 74.3 1.04 80.4 0.93 79.9 0.79 79.2 0.78 80.3 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 44.0 1.13 52.8 1.22 54.0 1.02 51.8 0.96 56.8 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 24.3 0.92 22.7 0.93 21.4 0.83 21.8 0.76 19.0 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 6.0 0.50 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44 5.7 0.44 4.6 0.48
No changes in prices 18.7 0.97 15.0 0.84 13.4 0.66 15.8 0.70 13.4 0.76
Decline in prices 7.0 0.71 4.6 0.46 6.6 0.47 5.0 0.44 6.2 0.57
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 62.4 1.14 69.8 1.07 70.3 0.90 64.7 0.94 69.1 1.06
Price increase more than current rate 35.6 1.08 45.0 1.20 47.2 0.98 41.2 0.94 47.0 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 21.1 0.91 19.9 0.81 18.8 0.74 18.6 0.72 18.3 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.51 4.9 0.48 4.4 0.42 4.9 0.39 3.8 0.41
No changes in prices 26.0 1.01 22.1 0.97 22.7 0.81 26.7 0.86 22.7 0.97
Decline in prices 11.6 0.81 8.1 0.63 6.9 0.48 8.6 0.55 8.2 0.62
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 57.4 1.10 74.8 1.05 75.7 0.86 65.4 0.93 71.8 1.08
Price increase more than current rate 34.7 1.10 49.9 1.22 53.8 1.04 43.5 0.97 50.9 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.88 20.2 0.91 18.3 0.79 17.5 0.71 16.6 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.43 4.7 0.48 3.6 0.38 4.5 0.40 4.2 0.44
No changes in prices 26.1 1.01 17.7 0.95 17.8 0.76 23.3 0.83 19.8 0.92
Decline in prices 16.5 0.83 7.5 0.61 6.5 0.48 11.2 0.62 8.4 0.68
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 75.6 1.06 78.5 0.98 81.4 0.75 76.5 0.82 80.9 0.88
Price increase more than current rate 46.1 1.11 51.1 1.21 55.2 1.02 50.0 0.94 55.9 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 23.7 0.90 22.9 0.96 21.5 0.82 21.3 0.75 20.5 0.91
Price increase less than current rate 5.8 0.50 4.6 0.45 4.7 0.44 5.2 0.43 4.5 0.47
No changes in prices 20.5 0.97 18.2 0.94 15.2 0.67 20.1 0.77 15.7 0.80
Decline in prices 3.9 0.57 3.3 0.41 3.4 0.35 3.4 0.36 3.4 0.42
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jul-21
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 10.5 0.11 10.3 0.06 11.7 0.11 11.3 0.42 11.0 0.13 11.5 0.49
Gender-wise                        
Male 10.8 0.13 10.4 0.07 11.8 0.13 11.9 0.52 11.0 0.16 11.9 0.50
Female 10.2 0.14 10.1 0.11 11.4 0.14 10.8 0.15 10.7 0.18 10.9 0.22
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 10.4 0.73 9.3 1.13 11.0 0.64 10.5 1.00 10.5 0.65 10.7 0.44
Other Employees 10.7 0.18 10.3 0.08 11.8 0.17 11.7 0.54 11.2 0.23 12.0 0.61
Self Employed 11.0 0.20 10.5 0.09 12.0 0.19 12.1 0.75 11.0 0.26 12.3 0.69
Homemaker 10.1 0.17 10.1 0.14 11.3 0.16 10.8 0.15 10.6 0.20 10.8 0.21
Retired Persons 11.5 0.39 11.0 1.00 12.3 0.37 13.7 1.34 10.9 0.50 12.9 1.38
Daily Workers 10.3 0.26 10.0 0.31 11.3 0.27 10.8 0.30 10.4 0.33 10.7 0.26
Other category 10.0 0.25 9.5 0.51 11.1 0.24 10.7 0.27 10.7 0.29 10.8 0.31
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 9.8 0.19 8.9 0.30 10.8 0.19 10.3 0.15 10.6 0.24 10.7 0.20
25 to 30 years 10.0 0.18 9.9 0.26 11.1 0.19 10.7 0.14 10.7 0.23 10.9 0.29
30 to 35 years 10.5 0.20 10.2 0.14 11.5 0.20 11.2 0.56 11.0 0.23 11.1 0.54
35 to 40 years 10.5 0.19 10.3 0.09 11.6 0.20 11.3 0.45 10.8 0.25 11.0 0.40
40 to 45 years 10.6 0.23 10.3 0.12 11.6 0.22 11.4 0.59 10.9 0.28 11.7 0.76
45 to 50 years 10.7 0.24 10.4 0.09 11.9 0.24 12.0 0.79 11.0 0.31 11.2 0.63
50 to 55 years 11.4 0.26 10.8 0.27 12.3 0.26 13.7 1.22 11.2 0.35 12.7 1.00
55 to 60 years 10.7 0.31 10.4 0.13 11.6 0.30 11.6 0.79 10.1 0.43 10.7 0.41
60 years and above 11.1 0.29 10.6 0.13 12.2 0.29 13.0 0.98 11.1 0.41 12.7 1.36
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 10.5 0.44 10.4 0.31 12.4 0.43 13.4 1.24 12.5 0.45 14.2 1.22
Bengaluru 10.2 0.35 10.2 0.27 12.2 0.30 13.2 1.33 12.0 0.41 15.2 0.66
Bhopal 9.8 0.79 9.7 1.15 10.7 0.74 10.7 1.51 8.9 0.76 9.1 1.57
Bhubaneswar 10.1 0.69 10.3 0.53 11.2 0.66 11.2 1.01 9.2 0.90 10.4 2.16
Chennai 9.6 0.40 9.6 0.83 10.9 0.37 10.6 0.29 10.8 0.48 11.9 1.22
Delhi 11.1 0.26 10.4 0.12 12.1 0.25 12.5 0.86 11.3 0.31 11.8 1.02
Guwahati 11.6 0.56 11.1 1.37 11.8 0.54 11.5 1.16 11.9 0.72 12.0 2.08
Hyderabad 10.7 0.46 10.4 0.87 11.8 0.42 12.7 1.97 10.8 0.48 12.3 1.70
Jaipur 11.5 0.59 10.8 0.66 11.4 0.67 11.6 1.51 11.8 0.82 14.6 1.45
Kolkata 11.5 0.35 10.8 0.68 12.4 0.35 14.1 1.48 11.3 0.45 12.5 1.36
Lucknow 10.2 0.67 9.1 0.53 10.6 0.59 10.0 0.55 10.5 0.71 10.5 0.89
Mumbai 11.0 0.29 10.4 0.18 11.9 0.28 11.8 0.88 10.4 0.37 11.3 0.63
Nagpur 8.4 0.41 7.5 0.71 10.1 0.43 9.1 0.68 8.9 0.59 8.9 0.77
Patna 9.5 0.50 8.9 0.66 10.2 0.55 9.6 0.49 9.3 0.68 9.2 0.58
Thiruvananthapuram 6.7 0.80 5.3 0.65 8.3 0.84 6.9 0.63 9.3 0.96 8.1 1.24
Chandigarh 11.0 0.47 10.4 0.27 11.0 0.63 10.8 0.85 10.1 0.91 10.4 0.95
Ranchi 7.2 0.48 6.5 0.60 7.9 0.46 7.5 0.43 7.5 0.64 7.6 0.79
Raipur 6.7 0.52 5.6 0.21 8.3 0.71 7.4 0.61 10.4 0.71 10.8 0.70
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jul-20 10.0 0.11 9.9 0.21 10.8 0.11 10.5 0.06 9.8 0.14 10.3 0.08
Jan-21 9.1 0.12 8.2 0.17 10.0 0.12 9.3 0.29 9.7 0.13 10.1 0.15
Mar-21 9.4 0.11 8.7 0.16 10.4 0.11 10.1 0.11 10.0 0.12 10.2 0.09
May-21 10.4 0.09 10.2 0.04 11.4 0.09 10.8 0.07 10.7 0.11 10.9 0.12
Jul-21 10.5 0.11 10.3 0.06 11.7 0.11 11.3 0.42 11.0 0.13 11.5 0.49
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jul-20 62.8 61.0 49.9 43.6 58.4
Jan-21 63.3 64.3 54.5 55.7 62.8
Mar-21 67.0 65.7 57.4 58.6 65.1
May-21 68.0 65.1 51.8 50.3 60.5
Jul-21 67.6 69.0 58.4 56.9 65.0
One Year Ahead
Jul-20 63.9 64.5 55.2 51.2 65.7
Jan-21 68.4 68.6 60.6 63.0 69.0
Mar-21 69.6 70.1 62.4 65.5 71.6
May-21 68.3 67.1 57.7 57.1 67.2
Jul-21 70.1 71.0 63.3 63.5 71.4
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-21
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
1-<2 2 15 13 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38
2-<3 2 8 52 28 23 7 3 6 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 132
3-<4 1 1 7 55 41 35 23 9 4 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 182
4-<5 0 1 3 8 90 64 45 15 10 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 242
5-<6 1 3 9 18 22 339 113 155 87 16 119 1 2 0 2 9 1 0 897
6-<7 0 1 4 2 7 4 121 71 61 15 19 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 309
7-<8 0 0 3 1 3 7 6 116 76 58 52 4 8 1 1 2 2 0 340
8-<9 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 6 182 59 120 16 29 6 4 6 6 0 446
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 89 56 29 23 6 2 10 4 0 224
10-<11 1 0 2 0 1 35 3 6 10 6 413 56 177 36 24 259 151 0 1180
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 13 4 5 6 6 2 0 40
12-<13 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 28 4 13 36 16 0 102
13-<14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 12 8 0 30
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 14 0 23
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 7 0 1 3 0 95 159 0 269
>=16 1 1 1 1 0 9 0 0 0 1 36 0 2 1 2 26 1421 4 1506
Total 10 30 95 117 193 507 322 386 435 247 838 121 275 69 62 465 1787 4 5963
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-21
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
1-<2 8 7 5 7 2 3 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 38
2-<3 29 4 18 15 25 13 9 3 3 1 6 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 132
3-<4 25 1 2 23 16 47 14 10 13 7 12 1 5 2 1 2 0 1 182
4-<5 45 0 0 3 36 43 45 15 22 7 14 0 4 2 1 0 5 0 242
5-<6 118 0 4 5 9 178 69 132 75 33 156 9 20 6 8 55 19 1 897
6-<7 34 0 0 2 3 2 64 46 70 16 41 3 8 3 8 1 7 1 309
7-<8 40 0 1 1 0 2 3 75 47 63 56 10 14 3 10 8 7 0 340
8-<9 46 0 0 0 2 4 2 4 111 47 120 27 26 9 4 22 22 0 446
9-<10 23 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 57 38 27 32 12 7 16 7 1 224
10-<11 147 0 0 0 2 12 4 6 7 7 266 32 133 38 15 208 299 4 1180
11-<12 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 6 4 4 3 7 0 40
12-<13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 18 1 9 32 29 0 102
13-<14 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 8 12 0 30
14-<15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 15 0 23
15-<16 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 2 0 55 181 0 269
>=16 231 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 1 0 16 0 4 0 0 18 1224 5 1506
Total 796 12 31 58 96 310 211 293 351 238 736 120 272 87 72 430 1837 13 5963
Note: Figures are based on sample observations

1The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on June 04, 2021.

2The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank of India. It provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by the respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, they should be treated as households’ sentiments on inflation.

3Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) portal of the Bank (weblink: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=unitLevelData).

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