Publications

PDF - Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey ()
Date : Jun 05, 2026
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of May 2026 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2026, in 19 major cities, with 5,936 responses.

Highlights:

  1. The current median inflation perception of households increased sequentially by 60 basis points (bps) to 7.8 per cent as compared to the previous round. Their inflation expectations for the next three months and one year edged up by 80 basis points and 50 basis points, respectively, reaching 9.3 per cent for both horizons [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. At the short-term horizon, the proportion of respondents anticipating higher general prices and inflation inched up; with similar trend observed across the product groups [Table 1(a)].

Chart 1A and Chart 1B

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.5 0.86 74.6 0.90 78.6 0.91 81.6 0.90 83.5 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 54.4 1.24 50.7 1.14 54.6 1.20 57.2 1.21 60.4 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 22.0 0.92 20.2 0.87 20.6 0.87 20.9 0.85 19.7 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.42 3.7 0.38 3.3 0.37 3.6 0.40 3.4 0.40
No changes in prices 17.5 0.83 21.5 0.84 18.9 0.88 16.8 0.89 14.0 0.71
Decline in prices 2.0 0.30 3.9 0.41 2.5 0.35 1.5 0.24 2.5 0.32
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.8 0.79 74.9 0.84 80.0 0.81 83.8 0.75 85.4 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 55.8 1.11 50.5 1.04 55.7 1.11 59.4 1.16 60.7 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 17.7 0.80 18.2 0.77 18.9 0.81 18.4 0.81 18.6 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 9.3 0.62 6.2 0.49 5.4 0.46 6.0 0.52 6.0 0.52
No changes in prices 11.9 0.66 16.1 0.72 14.5 0.71 12.4 0.68 10.4 0.61
Decline in prices 5.4 0.45 8.9 0.58 5.5 0.46 3.8 0.37 4.1 0.38
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.3 0.92 67.8 0.95 72.2 0.93 77.6 0.90 81.1 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 51.5 1.14 44.3 1.08 48.8 1.16 54.0 1.15 56.8 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 17.5 0.75 17.6 0.76 18.3 0.82 18.1 0.77 18.7 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 0.50 5.9 0.46 5.1 0.43 5.5 0.45 5.6 0.49
No changes in prices 20.2 0.83 24.7 0.87 22.7 0.87 19.0 0.86 14.6 0.69
Decline in prices 4.6 0.40 7.5 0.54 5.2 0.46 3.4 0.34 4.3 0.40
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 66.3 1.01 53.2 1.02 61.3 1.05 65.4 1.00 68.2 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 45.5 1.12 36.1 1.03 42.4 1.10 44.7 1.11 46.8 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 15.3 0.69 13.4 0.70 15.1 0.74 15.9 0.69 16.9 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.46 3.8 0.38 3.9 0.36 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.42
No changes in prices 26.6 0.94 29.4 0.91 28.2 0.99 25.6 0.91 24.3 0.87
Decline in prices 7.1 0.50 17.4 0.75 10.4 0.59 9.0 0.56 7.5 0.51
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.3 0.93 77.4 0.86 78.5 0.86 78.4 0.90 78.3 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 57.1 1.16 54.8 1.12 57.8 1.10 57.8 1.14 56.3 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.75 17.9 0.78 17.5 0.76 17.0 0.73 18.0 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.41 4.7 0.40 3.2 0.34 3.6 0.37 4.0 0.42
No changes in prices 19.1 0.88 18.5 0.81 17.9 0.81 19.1 0.88 18.4 0.80
Decline in prices 2.6 0.31 4.1 0.39 3.5 0.36 2.5 0.30 3.3 0.36
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 69.9 0.97 63.8 0.97 68.4 0.96 69.8 1.01 71.1 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 49.7 1.13 43.3 1.11 47.3 1.14 48.7 1.14 49.1 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 15.9 0.73 16.1 0.73 17.5 0.79 17.2 0.72 17.4 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.41 4.4 0.42 3.6 0.38 3.9 0.37 4.5 0.47
No changes in prices 28.0 0.97 32.5 0.95 28.3 0.96 27.9 0.98 25.5 0.88
Decline in prices 2.1 0.27 3.7 0.39 3.2 0.37 2.3 0.28 3.4 0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.2 0.68 83.6 0.75 88.8 0.69 90.0 0.66 86.9 0.76
Price increase more than current rate 64.7 1.18 60.0 1.17 63.6 1.13 67.5 1.19 63.6 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 21.5 0.97 20.6 0.88 22.9 0.93 19.6 0.88 19.7 0.90
Price increase less than current rate 3.0 0.38 3.1 0.34 2.3 0.30 2.8 0.35 3.6 0.41
No changes in prices 8.8 0.61 13.0 0.65 8.5 0.60 8.3 0.61 10.1 0.65
Decline in prices 2.0 0.26 3.4 0.41 2.6 0.34 1.7 0.27 3.0 0.38
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 87.0 0.66 81.8 0.80 85.5 0.75 87.4 0.68 85.9 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 59.2 1.10 54.0 1.14 58.9 1.17 61.1 1.19 59.0 1.23
Price increase similar to current rate 20.3 0.86 22.9 0.86 22.2 0.90 21.5 0.88 22.2 0.94
Price increase less than current rate 7.5 0.57 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.42 4.8 0.45 4.7 0.48
No changes in prices 10.0 0.58 12.8 0.66 10.1 0.63 9.3 0.60 9.6 0.59
Decline in prices 3.0 0.32 5.4 0.47 4.4 0.43 3.2 0.36 4.4 0.42
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.9 0.78 78.1 0.82 80.5 0.83 83.7 0.79 82.7 0.81
Price increase more than current rate 55.8 1.12 52.7 1.11 56.5 1.17 58.6 1.18 56.7 1.24
Price increase similar to current rate 20.7 0.80 20.1 0.80 19.9 0.83 21.2 0.85 21.6 0.94
Price increase less than current rate 5.4 0.46 5.2 0.45 4.2 0.40 3.9 0.40 4.5 0.44
No changes in prices 15.2 0.73 16.6 0.72 15.4 0.75 13.4 0.73 13.1 0.67
Decline in prices 2.9 0.32 5.3 0.48 4.1 0.41 2.9 0.33 4.1 0.44
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 77.0 0.89 68.0 0.95 72.9 0.91 75.3 0.92 75.0 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 54.8 1.12 46.1 1.12 51.4 1.14 52.6 1.19 51.5 1.22
Price increase similar to current rate 17.8 0.79 17.4 0.77 17.8 0.80 18.6 0.79 19.6 0.88
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.40 4.5 0.44 3.7 0.37 4.1 0.42 3.8 0.39
No changes in prices 17.9 0.81 21.1 0.80 19.3 0.84 18.7 0.80 18.7 0.81
Decline in prices 5.1 0.41 11.0 0.65 7.8 0.53 6.0 0.45 6.3 0.48
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.2 0.69 87.9 0.67 88.0 0.65 89.4 0.60 87.0 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 65.9 1.06 64.9 1.08 66.9 1.06 67.0 1.08 64.3 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 18.5 0.82 19.2 0.86 18.4 0.83 18.5 0.80 19.0 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.40 3.8 0.37 2.8 0.31 3.9 0.41 3.7 0.41
No changes in prices 9.7 0.63 8.6 0.56 8.8 0.56 8.9 0.56 10.1 0.60
Decline in prices 2.1 0.27 3.5 0.40 3.2 0.37 1.7 0.25 2.9 0.38
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 83.0 0.77 79.0 0.85 81.9 0.80 82.6 0.78 81.3 0.87
Price increase more than current rate 59.9 1.12 55.1 1.16 57.2 1.16 57.2 1.15 56.4 1.21
Price increase similar to current rate 18.2 0.77 19.2 0.83 20.5 0.85 20.8 0.83 20.6 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.44 4.7 0.45 4.1 0.39 4.6 0.43 4.3 0.41
No changes in prices 15.0 0.75 17.6 0.77 15.2 0.75 15.4 0.75 15.3 0.77
Decline in prices 2.0 0.26 3.4 0.41 2.9 0.36 2.1 0.27 3.4 0.42
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May-26
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.5 0.09 7.8 0.13 9.7 0.09 9.3 0.27 9.2 0.11 9.3 0.27
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.6 0.13 7.8 0.21 9.8 0.13 9.5 0.36 9.2 0.16 9.2 0.42
Female 8.6 0.12 8.0 0.17 9.8 0.12 9.7 0.31 9.2 0.16 9.5 0.32
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.8 0.46 8.0 0.63 9.5 0.46 8.7 0.43 8.9 0.53 8.7 0.48
Other Employees 8.4 0.16 7.6 0.25 9.7 0.19 9.1 0.39 9.3 0.22 9.3 0.48
Self Employed 9.1 0.20 8.6 0.48 10.3 0.21 10.2 0.15 9.5 0.26 9.9 0.40
Homemaker 8.5 0.15 7.9 0.21 9.8 0.15 9.4 0.38 9.1 0.19 9.3 0.35
Retired Persons 9.0 0.35 7.8 0.78 10.3 0.36 10.0 0.51 9.4 0.48 9.2 0.82
Daily Workers 8.7 0.29 8.2 0.43 9.6 0.28 9.2 0.57 9.2 0.35 10.0 0.44
Other category 8.2 0.20 7.3 0.24 9.4 0.22 8.6 0.38 9.1 0.26 9.2 0.50
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.8 0.19 7.1 0.24 9.1 0.20 8.4 0.30 9.0 0.23 8.9 0.41
25 to 30 years 8.4 0.18 7.6 0.26 9.4 0.19 8.7 0.25 9.2 0.23 9.4 0.42
30 to 35 years 8.5 0.19 7.9 0.29 9.9 0.20 9.8 0.35 8.9 0.26 9.2 0.55
35 to 40 years 8.8 0.20 8.3 0.24 9.9 0.20 9.9 0.37 9.3 0.25 9.5 0.48
40 to 45 years 8.9 0.22 8.3 0.26 9.8 0.23 9.4 0.47 9.4 0.29 9.7 0.44
45 to 50 years 9.1 0.24 8.3 0.51 10.0 0.25 9.5 0.54 9.3 0.32 9.4 0.62
50 to 55 years 8.8 0.26 7.8 0.40 9.8 0.27 9.4 0.59 9.0 0.36 8.8 0.69
55 to 60 years 8.8 0.29 8.2 0.69 10.2 0.31 9.9 0.52 9.1 0.38 9.2 0.80
60 years and above 9.0 0.27 8.2 0.52 10.3 0.26 10.3 0.17 9.4 0.36 9.7 0.59
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 6.7 0.24 6.0 0.14 7.7 0.33 6.9 0.27 7.2 0.35 6.8 0.36
Bengaluru 5.9 0.15 5.4 0.08 7.8 0.17 7.3 0.23 7.9 0.22 7.6 0.26
Bhopal 8.5 0.74 7.6 1.24 9.7 0.56 9.3 0.99 9.3 0.58 8.9 1.13
Bhubaneswar 7.6 0.59 6.4 0.65 9.0 0.49 8.1 0.56 8.9 0.61 8.7 0.55
Chennai 7.9 0.40 7.1 0.69 9.2 0.34 9.0 0.69 9.2 0.35 9.9 0.55
Delhi 9.8 0.26 9.9 0.41 11.1 0.25 10.8 0.39 9.7 0.29 10.2 0.38
Guwahati 7.6 0.59 6.9 0.81 7.7 0.57 6.6 0.93 8.1 1.05 7.8 1.31
Hyderabad 7.9 0.24 7.4 0.39 9.2 0.27 8.9 0.45 8.5 0.40 9.1 0.59
Jaipur 7.9 0.43 7.7 0.40 8.5 0.41 8.3 0.50 7.7 0.61 8.0 0.68
Jammu 9.0 0.91 9.2 1.22 8.9 0.57 8.6 1.27 8.9 0.91 8.6 1.28
Kolkata 10.2 0.32 10.2 0.17 10.9 0.30 10.6 0.21 9.5 0.40 9.9 0.63
Lucknow 9.2 0.47 8.8 0.75 10.1 0.60 9.7 0.82 9.7 0.55 9.4 0.84
Mumbai 9.7 0.21 9.1 0.41 11.2 0.23 10.6 0.14 10.8 0.32 10.9 0.33
Nagpur 8.8 0.40 8.7 0.35 10.1 0.43 10.1 0.48 9.8 0.86 10.8 0.76
Patna 7.1 0.55 6.1 0.44 7.4 0.54 6.5 0.47 7.1 0.60 6.8 0.55
Thiruvananthapuram 7.2 0.65 5.6 0.33 8.8 0.69 8.0 0.80 9.9 0.85 9.3 1.19
Chandigarh 7.9 0.63 7.2 1.00 8.4 0.66 7.7 1.41 8.4 0.65 7.7 1.17
Ranchi 8.3 0.35 7.3 0.31 8.7 0.37 7.9 0.35 8.9 0.61 8.8 0.36
Raipur 7.3 0.54 6.6 0.65 7.9 0.56 7.1 0.53 8.0 1.02 7.6 1.00
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Nov-25 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Jan-26 7.8 0.08 6.9 0.16 8.9 0.09 7.9 0.12 8.9 0.11 8.6 0.15
Mar-26 8.2 0.09 7.2 0.13 9.3 0.09 8.5 0.13 9.1 0.11 8.8 0.15
May-26 8.5 0.09 7.8 0.13 9.7 0.09 9.3 0.27 9.2 0.11 9.3 0.27
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
Nov-25 62.4 62.6 55.1 62.1 65.4
Jan-26 65.9 66.6 60.0 64.8 68.6
Mar-26 65.5 66.5 59.0 64.6 66.4
May-26 66.6 67.4 59.4 63.9 66.6
One Year Ahead
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0
Nov-25 83.4 70.3 61.7 71.0 71.1
Jan-26 71.7 71.0 64.5 73.0 72.8
Mar-26 73.6 73.8 68.0 74.7 74.2
May-26 74.3 72.7 67.4 74.1 73.8

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-26
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
1-<2 2 23 27 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69
2-<3 0 8 94 83 38 11 5 1 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 248
3-<4 0 9 6 90 70 80 11 3 2 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 282
4-<5 0 3 5 9 128 92 56 16 15 1 10 0 0 1 5 5 46 1 393
5-<6 1 1 13 24 19 437 215 206 102 13 142 1 1 0 0 7 124 2 1308
6-<7 0 1 0 5 9 8 138 103 69 20 24 2 4 0 0 1 0 0 384
7-<8 0 0 2 1 4 7 3 173 94 59 76 4 7 0 1 0 2 0 433
8-<9 0 0 2 2 3 7 6 3 152 65 152 8 25 4 3 4 4 0 440
9-<10 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 53 48 9 31 6 4 5 1 0 162
10-<11 0 0 4 4 2 81 2 9 18 4 412 79 213 54 22 183 121 1 1209
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 11 5 1 0 2 2 0 26
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 4 0 29 8 5 29 8 0 88
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 3 4 1 0 15
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 0 12
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 6 0 4 1 1 67 80 0 183
>=16 3 0 2 0 1 83 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 1 0 19 540 3 676
Total 13 46 155 231 277 837 438 516 454 215 922 114 319 81 47 329 935 7 5936

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-26
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
1-<2 13 9 23 13 6 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69
2-<3 28 5 49 71 59 28 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 248
3-<4 37 2 4 49 55 88 25 4 2 1 12 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 282
4-<5 47 1 6 10 71 74 75 23 19 3 4 1 3 1 0 7 47 1 393
5-<6 133 1 8 16 18 261 174 219 125 27 184 3 12 0 0 6 119 2 1308
6-<7 36 1 2 2 7 3 88 76 75 28 48 2 12 1 1 2 0 0 384
7-<8 40 0 0 0 1 6 0 96 56 73 113 9 26 3 2 5 3 0 433
8-<9 51 0 0 0 2 4 1 3 77 49 142 12 68 7 5 16 3 0 440
9-<10 15 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 26 35 13 28 5 7 30 1 0 162
10-<11 173 0 1 3 1 22 3 1 12 5 288 41 150 43 26 298 142 0 1209
11-<12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 3 4 4 2 1 0 26
12-<13 17 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 10 7 10 27 14 0 88
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 5 3 0 15
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 6 0 12
15-<16 23 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 89 0 183
>=16 134 0 2 2 1 35 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 501 0 676
Total 759 20 95 166 221 534 370 424 370 214 831 89 313 76 61 461 929 3 5936

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on April 08, 2026. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.