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Mint Street Memos (MSM) is a series of documents that are in the form of brief reports and analysis on contemporary topics, prepared by the staff of RBI and Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning (CAFRAL), or drawn from one of the recent publications of the Bank.

September 2017

Agriculture Loan Bank Accounts – A Waiver Scenario Analysis

Many state governments have announced farm debt waiver schemes with varying features / coverage to provide relief to indebted farmers. This note presents a scenario-based analysis of possible size of debt waiver using account level data on bank credit. The estimates range from ₹ 2.2 lakh crore to ₹ 4.2 lakh crore, depending on the extent of coverage under the waiver schemes. In all cases, however, loan waiver by states could adversely impact their fiscal position.

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Farm Loan Waivers, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation

Some Indian states have announced farm debt waivers recently, which bear ramifications for the fiscal burden of states over the medium term. Empirical estimates suggest that fiscal deficit can have an inflationary impact. If the combined fiscal deficit for 2017-18 goes up by 40 bps on account of farm loan waivers(both actual and intended), with the budgeted combined fiscal deficit at around 5.9 percent for 2017-18 and inflationary momentum remaining benign, ceteris paribus, this may lead to around 20 bps permanent increase in inflation, starting 2017-18.

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August 2017

Market Reaction to the Banking
Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017

The stock market reaction to the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017 has been positive for banks and their high quality borrowers but negative for distressed firms, suggestive of its potential to rejuvenate banking sector health and to improve capital allocation across firms.

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August 2017

Demonetisation and Bank
Deposit Growth

The study estimates ‘excess’ bank deposit growth following demonetisation employing alternative scenarios. It finds that there appears to have been a significant increase in bank deposits due to demonetisation. If sustained, such gains could have a beneficial impact in the form of financialisation of savings.

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Financialisation of Savings into Non-Banking Financial Intermediaries

The study shows that an important positive impact of demonetisation has been to induce a shift towards formal channels of saving by households, particularly into equity/debt oriented mutual funds and life insurance policies. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) also seem to have been positively impacted. The challenge, going forward, would be to channelise these funds into productive segments of the economy.

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Disclaimer- The views and opinions expressed in Mint Street Memos(MSM) are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the RBI.


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