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Date : Jun 06, 2025
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of May 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 6,079 valid responses.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median perception of current inflation declined further by 10 basis points (bps) to 7.7 per cent, when compared to March 2025 round of the survey; their inflation expectations for the next three months remained unchanged while their one year ahead expectation moderated by 20 bps [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation has come down vis-à-vis the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Price and inflationary pressures eased across major product groups including food products and non-food items [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a and 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.6 0.81 79.3 0.89 81.6 0.79 80.7 0.87 80.5 0.86
Price increase more than current rate 59.1 1.13 53.6 1.24 57.9 1.11 54.7 1.15 54.4 1.24
Price increase similar to current rate 17.5 0.83 19.9 0.87 19.2 0.86 20.8 0.86 22.0 0.92
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.43 5.8 0.49 4.4 0.44 5.2 0.47 4.1 0.42
No changes in prices 16.6 0.77 18.7 0.87 16.5 0.76 17.3 0.84 17.5 0.83
Decline in prices 2.8 0.32 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.29 2.0 0.27 2.0 0.30
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.8 0.74 83.9 0.75 83.2 0.77 83.1 0.77 82.8 0.79
Price increase more than current rate 61.0 1.07 60.7 1.08 59.3 1.03 57.8 1.09 55.8 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 15.3 0.74 17.0 0.81 17.3 0.78 18.3 0.79 17.7 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 5.5 0.46 6.2 0.50 6.7 0.53 7.0 0.54 9.3 0.62
No changes in prices 12.1 0.64 11.1 0.64 11.5 0.66 12.2 0.69 11.9 0.66
Decline in prices 6.1 0.46 5.0 0.44 5.3 0.45 4.7 0.40 5.4 0.45
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.0 0.85 75.9 0.90 75.2 0.86 75.6 0.89 75.3 0.92
Price increase more than current rate 53.7 1.11 51.7 1.14 52.5 1.04 53.3 1.07 51.5 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 15.6 0.72 17.9 0.78 16.8 0.74 15.3 0.74 17.5 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 5.7 0.50 6.3 0.50 6.0 0.47 7.0 0.54 6.2 0.50
No changes in prices 19.3 0.78 19.9 0.85 20.4 0.79 20.2 0.82 20.2 0.83
Decline in prices 5.7 0.43 4.2 0.39 4.4 0.40 4.2 0.39 4.6 0.40
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 68.2 0.94 66.5 1.00 67.0 0.99 66.7 0.98 66.3 1.01
Price increase more than current rate 48.3 1.10 46.3 1.11 46.9 1.09 45.2 1.11 45.5 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 15.2 0.74 14.5 0.70 14.7 0.71 15.8 0.74 15.3 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.44 5.7 0.50 5.4 0.45 5.8 0.51 5.5 0.46
No changes in prices 23.4 0.86 24.8 0.89 25.3 0.92 24.6 0.90 26.6 0.94
Decline in prices 8.5 0.53 8.7 0.55 7.8 0.50 8.6 0.52 7.1 0.50
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 80.4 0.81 78.9 0.85 78.5 0.91 78.0 0.88 78.3 0.93
Price increase more than current rate 59.3 1.06 57.4 1.14 58.0 1.10 56.5 1.09 57.1 1.16
Price increase similar to current rate 16.7 0.77 16.4 0.76 15.6 0.75 16.0 0.73 16.7 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 4.3 0.44 5.1 0.46 4.9 0.44 5.4 0.48 4.4 0.41
No changes in prices 16.7 0.77 18.2 0.79 18.3 0.87 19.1 0.84 19.1 0.88
Decline in prices 3.0 0.34 2.9 0.33 3.2 0.36 2.9 0.34 2.6 0.31
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 68.6 0.98 66.3 0.99 68.4 0.99 69.3 0.98 69.9 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 49.2 1.12 46.6 1.12 48.2 1.10 49.0 1.10 49.7 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 14.4 0.68 14.8 0.70 14.9 0.74 14.9 0.71 15.9 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.46 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.45 5.3 0.46 4.3 0.41
No changes in prices 27.3 0.94 30.7 0.98 28.4 0.96 27.8 0.95 28.0 0.97
Decline in prices 4.1 0.39 2.9 0.33 3.1 0.36 3.0 0.34 2.1 0.27
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended May-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 89.1 0.64 89.6 0.67 90.6 0.62 89.7 0.67 89.2 0.68
Price increase more than current rate 67.9 1.14 66.9 1.14 68.7 1.06 65.4 1.12 64.7 1.18
Price increase similar to current rate 17.8 0.90 18.6 0.85 18.1 0.87 19.7 0.88 21.5 0.97
Price increase less than current rate 3.5 0.41 4.1 0.40 3.8 0.43 4.6 0.44 3.0 0.38
No changes in prices 7.9 0.56 8.2 0.62 7.4 0.55 8.4 0.62 8.8 0.61
Decline in prices 3.0 0.34 2.2 0.30 2.0 0.29 1.9 0.27 2.0 0.26
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 86.0 0.68 89.0 0.66 88.8 0.65 87.9 0.66 87.0 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 62.8 1.10 64.4 1.13 63.5 1.10 60.8 1.09 59.2 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 18.3 0.86 19.3 0.87 19.7 0.89 21.1 0.83 20.3 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.49 5.3 0.48 5.6 0.51 6.1 0.49 7.5 0.57
No changes in prices 9.3 0.58 7.3 0.53 7.7 0.55 8.9 0.58 10.0 0.58
Decline in prices 4.7 0.39 3.7 0.38 3.5 0.36 3.2 0.33 3.0 0.32
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.1 0.79 81.9 0.81 83.3 0.78 82.6 0.78 81.9 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 59.8 1.13 56.7 1.19 59.4 1.16 56.7 1.11 55.8 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.80 19.5 0.84 18.6 0.84 20.0 0.83 20.7 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 5.1 0.47 5.6 0.48 5.2 0.46 6.0 0.50 5.4 0.46
No changes in prices 12.9 0.68 14.7 0.76 13.2 0.69 13.9 0.71 15.2 0.73
Decline in prices 5.0 0.44 3.4 0.36 3.6 0.37 3.5 0.35 2.9 0.32
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 76.8 0.83 76.8 0.90 76.3 0.90 75.4 0.90 77.0 0.89
Price increase more than current rate 56.0 1.12 54.8 1.18 54.3 1.13 51.9 1.12 54.8 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 16.4 0.79 16.9 0.76 17.0 0.80 17.9 0.78 17.8 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.44 5.0 0.45 5.0 0.47 5.6 0.46 4.4 0.40
No changes in prices 16.6 0.72 17.6 0.81 18.0 0.82 17.9 0.78 17.9 0.81
Decline in prices 6.6 0.47 5.6 0.46 5.6 0.43 6.6 0.48 5.1 0.41
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 89.2 0.64 88.8 0.70 88.7 0.66 88.3 0.67 88.2 0.69
Price increase more than current rate 68.7 1.02 66.7 1.09 67.6 1.05 66.5 1.03 65.9 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 16.3 0.75 17.6 0.83 17.0 0.80 17.6 0.80 18.5 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.45 4.5 0.45 4.1 0.45 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.40
No changes in prices 8.4 0.57 8.7 0.61 8.8 0.59 9.3 0.60 9.7 0.63
Decline in prices 2.4 0.31 2.5 0.30 2.5 0.31 2.3 0.30 2.1 0.27
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 82.1 0.77 81.7 0.90 81.9 0.85 82.4 0.79 83.0 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 58.9 1.13 58.4 1.19 58.8 1.15 59.4 1.07 59.9 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 18.6 0.83 18.3 0.82 18.2 0.82 17.6 0.79 18.2 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.44 4.9 0.44 5.0 0.47 5.4 0.45 4.8 0.44
No changes in prices 14.7 0.71 15.7 0.84 15.5 0.79 15.0 0.74 15.0 0.75
Decline in prices 3.2 0.34 2.6 0.32 2.6 0.33 2.6 0.31 2.0 0.26
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.6 0.12 7.9 0.16 9.6 0.14 9.0 0.22 9.4 0.16 9.5 0.32
Female 8.4 0.11 7.7 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.0 0.20 9.5 0.15 9.8 0.26
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.8 0.48 7.7 0.50 9.7 0.48 9.1 0.86 9.8 0.57 8.9 1.03
Other Employees 8.3 0.17 7.5 0.20 9.4 0.18 8.7 0.20 9.3 0.22 9.1 0.37
Self Employed 8.7 0.19 7.8 0.27 9.7 0.21 9.0 0.35 9.5 0.24 9.6 0.38
Homemaker 8.3 0.12 7.4 0.24 9.4 0.13 8.8 0.18 9.4 0.16 9.5 0.37
Retired Persons 9.1 0.30 8.6 0.70 10.1 0.35 9.5 0.71 9.6 0.40 9.5 0.74
Daily Workers 8.2 0.23 7.8 0.45 9.3 0.28 9.2 0.51 8.9 0.37 9.0 0.53
Other category 8.3 0.20 7.6 0.22 9.4 0.22 9.0 0.30 9.5 0.25 9.7 0.35
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.9 0.15 7.3 0.18 8.9 0.17 8.6 0.24 9.0 0.21 9.0 0.28
25 to 30 years 8.2 0.17 7.6 0.25 9.4 0.18 8.8 0.26 9.3 0.22 9.5 0.38
30 to 35 years 8.4 0.17 7.6 0.21 9.4 0.19 8.7 0.18 9.2 0.22 9.3 0.41
35 to 40 years 8.3 0.18 7.6 0.32 9.4 0.19 8.7 0.27 9.4 0.24 9.5 0.44
40 to 45 years 8.5 0.20 7.7 0.27 9.5 0.21 9.0 0.37 9.3 0.26 9.3 0.49
45 to 50 years 8.9 0.22 8.7 0.40 10.1 0.24 10.0 0.29 9.8 0.29 10.2 0.28
50 to 55 years 8.8 0.27 8.0 0.57 9.8 0.30 9.3 0.62 9.4 0.35 9.5 0.55
55 to 60 years 8.5 0.27 8.1 0.33 9.4 0.27 9.1 0.45 9.1 0.39 9.1 0.61
60 years and above 9.1 0.22 9.0 0.57 10.3 0.25 10.0 0.45 9.7 0.34 10.0 0.43
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 6.5 0.20 6.1 0.19 7.3 0.25 6.9 0.22 6.9 0.35 7.0 0.31
Bengaluru 5.9 0.18 5.3 0.11 7.4 0.21 6.7 0.26 7.8 0.24 7.3 0.28
Bhopal 9.1 0.47 8.8 1.39 10.6 0.49 10.5 0.57 10.0 0.66 10.3 0.48
Bhubaneswar 7.5 0.42 6.2 0.33 10.1 0.51 9.5 0.94 9.8 0.73 9.5 0.87
Chennai 7.9 0.33 6.8 0.85 9.0 0.47 8.3 0.81 9.7 0.57 9.9 0.62
Delhi 9.1 0.21 8.6 0.37 9.7 0.23 9.6 0.37 9.4 0.27 10.0 0.34
Guwahati 7.7 0.39 7.1 0.70 8.9 0.40 9.6 0.77 10.0 0.62 10.7 0.74
Hyderabad 8.1 0.24 7.5 0.39 9.7 0.32 9.0 0.43 9.5 0.47 9.8 0.51
Jaipur 6.8 0.30 6.4 0.43 7.2 0.34 6.7 0.49 6.5 0.51 6.3 0.61
Jammu 12.5 1.59 15.2 2.25 10.1 0.98 9.8 1.93 8.9 0.90 8.3 2.04
Kolkata 10.3 0.25 10.2 0.20 11.3 0.27 11.0 0.52 10.8 0.29 10.9 0.50
Lucknow 9.2 0.53 8.6 0.71 9.8 0.53 9.4 0.69 9.5 0.51 9.0 0.73
Mumbai 9.4 0.18 8.7 0.18 10.8 0.22 10.4 0.15 11.0 0.32 11.3 0.60
Nagpur 7.7 0.50 7.1 0.89 8.8 0.60 8.2 0.78 8.5 0.94 9.4 1.22
Patna 7.5 0.35 7.3 0.33 8.2 0.40 8.0 0.46 7.8 0.56 7.9 0.63
Thiruvananthapuram 6.8 0.73 5.6 0.50 8.5 0.68 7.6 0.74 10.4 0.60 10.0 0.83
Chandigarh 9.3 0.59 9.1 0.68 9.8 0.87 9.8 0.79 9.8 0.91 9.7 1.00
Ranchi 9.0 0.49 8.4 0.37 9.3 0.43 8.8 0.46 8.6 0.48 8.6 0.50
Raipur 10.5 0.98 10.3 0.82 11.0 1.01 10.9 1.25 9.4 1.25 10.6 1.39
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
May-24 8.7 0.10 8.0 0.13 9.8 0.10 9.2 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.9 0.19
Nov-24 8.9 0.09 8.4 0.13 9.7 0.10 9.1 0.20 9.7 0.12 10.1 0.11
Jan-25 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Mar-25 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-24 67.4 67.2 63.2 67.2 68.0
Nov-24 65.7 66.2 61.0 64.1 71.3
Jan-25 66.2 66.2 61.1 65.3 66.0
Mar-25 64.4 67.6 60.1 65.0 68.8
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
One Year Ahead
May-24 76.1 74.5 69.5 76.8 75.0
Nov-24 79.6 73.8 70.1 75.7 74.4
Jan-25 75.3 73.1 67.8 75.3 73.9
Mar-25 74.3 72.7 67.0 75.4 76.9
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 5 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
1-<2 3 32 18 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62
2-<3 0 14 119 74 50 12 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 272
3-<4 0 3 17 136 67 59 16 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 304
4-<5 0 2 11 10 149 103 53 14 9 1 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 360
5-<6 0 2 7 25 26 514 151 223 105 13 103 3 21 3 0 6 2 1 1205
6-<7 0 1 1 3 8 11 211 96 95 27 22 2 11 0 0 2 1 0 491
7-<8 0 0 1 3 0 8 8 196 121 60 78 2 6 2 2 4 1 0 492
8-<9 0 0 2 0 2 6 11 5 214 92 143 11 26 6 0 9 3 0 530
9-<10 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 2 3 103 51 15 34 5 2 5 1 0 227
10-<11 0 0 3 3 0 15 6 7 14 10 433 67 191 56 19 206 96 2 1128
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 8 4 7 2 0 3 0 28
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 43 12 11 22 5 0 98
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 4 5 4 0 26
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 8 1 2 0 14
15-<16 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 3 76 95 1 182
>=16 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 1 0 1 25 0 2 1 0 13 593 2 650
Total 9 54 182 265 304 742 460 545 564 310 872 109 345 105 52 349 806 6 6079

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 3 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
1-<2 12 12 20 6 1 7 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62
2-<3 30 8 64 65 61 25 7 3 1 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 272
3-<4 37 0 9 57 58 85 35 8 4 3 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 304
4-<5 51 0 10 6 66 91 57 23 33 11 8 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 360
5-<6 162 0 4 5 13 256 139 166 149 37 221 8 11 1 1 24 8 0 1205
6-<7 54 0 0 1 3 4 130 83 87 34 58 11 18 0 2 2 4 0 491
7-<8 52 0 0 1 4 2 4 122 82 60 97 14 30 2 4 8 10 0 492
8-<9 51 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 135 50 134 27 75 21 4 13 11 0 530
9-<10 22 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 52 38 26 42 14 9 10 7 0 227
10-<11 93 0 1 2 1 9 2 4 8 4 239 42 164 36 28 270 225 0 1128
11-<12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 3 7 3 2 2 0 28
12-<13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 24 7 11 22 21 0 98
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 5 9 0 26
14-<15 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 1 4 0 14
15-<16 16 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 46 110 1 182
>=16 48 4 4 1 2 9 0 0 0 0 17 0 1 2 0 9 553 0 650
Total 647 25 114 145 211 493 380 417 503 251 836 135 375 98 70 412 965 2 6079

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on April 09, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.