The Reserve Bank has been conducting the survey of professional forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Forty panellists participated in the 100th round of the bi-monthly survey conducted during May 2026. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and summary statistics are presented in Annexes 1-7. Highlights: 1.Output -
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2026-27 and by 6.9 per cent in 2027-28 (Table 1). -
SPF panellists placed GDP growth forecasts in the range of 5.0-7.2 per cent for 2026-27 and in the range of 5.0-7.8 per cent for 2027-28 (Annexes 1 and 2). -
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for both 2026-27 and 2027-28 (Chart 1). Note: Tail parts of the distributions are not presented in this chart but are included in Annex 6. -
Annual growth in real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for 2026-27 are expected at 6.8 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively; and for 2027-28, they are expected at 7.0 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively. | Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components | | (in per cent) | | | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | | Real GDP | 6.5
(-0.4) | 6.9
(-0.1) | | a. Real PFCE | 6.8
(-0.2) | 7.0
(0.0) | | b. Real GFCF | 6.5
(-0.6) | 6.9
(-0.1) | | Nominal PFCE | 10.2
(+0.2) | 10.7
(+0.2) | | Real GVA | 6.6
(-0.2) | 6.9
(0.0) | | a. Agriculture and Allied Activities | 2.4
(-0.6) | 3.2
(-0.1) | | b. Industry | 6.8
(-0.2) | 7.4
(-0.2) | | c. Services | 7.7
(-0.3) | 7.8
(0.0) | Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income] | 32.9
(0.0) | 33.1
(+0.3) | Gross Capital Formation Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices] | 34.3
(-0.2) | 34.6
(-0.1) | | Note: The figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (in percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round (applicable for Tables 1-4). | | Table 2: Median Growth Forecast of Quarterly GDP, GVA and components | | (in per cent) | | | Q4:2025-26 | Q1:2026-27 | Q2:2026-27 | Q3:2026-27 | Q4:2026-27 | | Real GDP | 7.3
(0.0) | 6.5
(-0.4) | 6.4
(-0.4) | 6.7
(-0.1) | 7.0
(0.0) | | a. Real PFCE | 7.4
(-0.1) | 6.8
(+0.3) | 6.5
(-0.2) | 6.9
(-0.1) | 7.0
(-0.1) | | b. Real GFCF | 7.2
(0.0) | 6.9
(-0.1) | 6.6
(-0.4) | 6.8
(-0.2) | 7.0
(0.0) | | Real GVA | 7.3
(0.0) | 6.5
(-0.2) | 6.4
(-0.4) | 6.5
(-0.2) | 6.8
(0.0) | 2.Inflation -
Annual headline inflation, based on CPI-Combined, is expected at 4.9 per cent during 2026-27 and at 4.5 per cent during 2027-28 (Annexes 1 and 2). -
Headline CPI inflation (y-o-y) is expected at 4.0 per cent during Q1:2026-27. Thereafter, it is expected to increase to 4.9 percent in Q2:2026-27 and further to 5.5 per cent in Q3:2026-27 and then moderate to 5.2 per cent during Q4:2026-27 (Table 3). -
Core CPI (excluding Food and Fuel#) inflation is expected at 3.9 per cent during Q1: 2026-27; thereafter it is projected to remain between 4.4-4.7 per cent in the subsequent three quarters of 2026-27. | Table 3: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation | | (in per cent) | | | Q1:2026-27 | Q2:2026-27 | Q3:2026-27 | Q4:2026-27 | | CPI Combined (General) | 4.0
(-0.1) | 4.9
(+0.5) | 5.5
(+0.8) | 5.2
(+1.0) | | Core: CPI excluding Food and Fuel#2 | 3.9
(-0.1) | 4.4
(+0.3) | 4.7
(+0.4) | 4.5
(+0.5) | | WPI All Commodities | 8.9
(+4.4) | 9.0
(+3.7) | 7.9
(+2.4) | 6.5
(+2.8) | | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | 5.1
(+1.3) | 5.5
(+1.8) | 5.3
(+1.3) | 4.3
(+1.5) | Note: Tail parts of the distributions are not presented in this chart but are included in Annex 7. 3.External Sector -
Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 5.0 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively, during 2026-27 and by 4.7 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively, during 2027-28, in US dollar terms (Table 4). -
Current account deficit (CAD) is expected at 2.1 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) for 2026-27 and at 1.2 per cent for 2027-28. | Table 4: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables | | | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | 5.0
(+1.0) | 4.7
(-0.3) | Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) | 10.5
(+2.2) | 4.6
(-0.8) | Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices) | -2.1
(-0.6) | -1.2
(0.0) |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF):
Aastha Gudwani (Barclays Bank PLC), Aditi Nayar (ICRA Ltd.), Aditya Vyas (STCI Primary Dealer Ltd.), Anuradha Patnaik (University of Mumbai), Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Finance Ltd.), Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings and Research), Dharmakirti Joshi (Crisil Limited), Garima Kapoor and Subhankar Sanyal (Elara Securities), Gaura Sen Gupta (IDFC FIRST Bank), Gaurav Kapur (IndusInd Bank Ltd.), ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, Indranil Pan (Yes Bank Ltd.), Janaki Samant (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd.), Kanika Pasricha (Union Bank of India), Minakshi Chakraborty (Mahindra & Mahindra), Rajani Sinha (CareEdge Ratings), Sakshi Gupta (HDFC Bank), Samiran Chakraborty (Citigroup Global Markets India Private Limited), Shailesh Kejariwal (B&K Securities India Pvt. Ltd.), Shubhada Rao (QuantEco Research), State Bank of India, Suvodeep Rakshit (Kotak Securities), Tanvee Gupta Jain (UBS Securities India Private Ltd.), Vikram Chhabra (360 ONE Asset Management Ltd.), Vikram Murarka (Kshitij Consultancy Services) and Vivien Massot (TAC Economics).
The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen other SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2026-27 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2026-27 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.8 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.6 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 6.9 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.5 | 10.2 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 11.9 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 34.2 | 34.3 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 33.5 | 34.7 | | 4 | GVA at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.7 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | | b | Industry at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 7.0 | | c | Services at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.7 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) -at current prices | 32.3 | 32.9 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 30.8 | 33.8 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 13.2 | 13.1 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 14.0 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 7.2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.4 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.7 | 5.0 | 15.6 | -0.6 | 3.2 | 8.4 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.9 | 10.5 | 18.7 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 12.9 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -82.3 | -83.7 | -35.1 | -106.5 | -90.8 | -80.0 | | a | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -2.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -2.0 | | 14 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | -49.7 | -48.1 | -4.5 | -82.3 | -58.9 | -40.8 | | 15 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | | 16 | Inflation based on Core: CPI excluding Food and Fuel# | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | | 17 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 7.8 | 8.0 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 9.1 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 5.2 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 5.9 | | Note: # : Fuel in the new CPI (2024=100) series represents two categories, viz., ‘electricity, gas and other fuels’; and ‘Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment’ which includes ‘petrol’, ‘diesel’, and ‘other natural gas (CNG)’. |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2027-28 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2027-28 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | 1st quartile | 3rd quartile | | 1 | GDP at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.2 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | | 3 | Gross Capital Formation Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 34.6 | 34.6 | 36.7 | 33.0 | 34.4 | 35.0 | | 4 | GVA at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.0 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | | b | Industry at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.4 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.6 | | c | Services at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | | 5 | Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) -at current prices | 32.7 | 33.1 | 35.0 | 30.0 | 31.5 | 33.5 | | 6 | Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | | 7 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | | 8 | Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) | 12.9 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | | 9 | Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.2 | | 10 | Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | | 11 | Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 5.2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 6.8 | | 12 | Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) | 4.4 | 4.6 | 9.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 6.8 | | 13 | Current Account Balance in US$ bn. | -52.1 | -51.5 | -19.5 | -75.0 | -60.0 | -43.2 | | a | Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 | | 14 | Overall BoP in US$ bn. | -15.9 | -13.4 | 37.3 | -60.0 | -41.0 | 4.3 | | 15 | Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline | 4.5 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | | 16 | Inflation based on Core: CPI excluding Food and Fuel# | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | | 17 | Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities | 3.4 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.3 | | 18 | Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products | 2.9 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | | Note: # : Fuel in the new CPI (2024=100) series represents two categories, viz., ‘electricity, gas and other fuels’; and ‘Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment’ which includes ‘petrol’, ‘diesel’, and ‘other natural gas (CNG)’. |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q4:2025-26 to Q4:2026-27 | | | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q4: 2025-26 | Q1: 2026-27 | Q2: 2026-27 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.8 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 4.6 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 9.2 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 6.5 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 31.0 | 30.6 | 35.0 | 30.0 | 32.2 | 32.3 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 33.5 | 34.3 | 35.3 | 28.0 | | 4 | GVA at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.4 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | | b | Industry at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 4.2 | | c | Services at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 6.6 | | 5 | IIP: Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | - | - | - | - | 3.5 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 112.7 | 112.3 | 123.1 | 105.1 | 118.6 | 118.7 | 134.9 | 110.5 | 117.7 | 116.1 | 133.7 | 110.0 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 206.9 | 198.3 | 300.0 | 187.5 | 222.9 | 212.3 | 350.0 | 193.2 | 230.4 | 224.1 | 350.0 | 202.3 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 95.6 | 95.4 | 97.9 | 93.0 | 95.9 | 96.2 | 98.0 | 92.0 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 107.1 | 105.0 | 135.0 | 95.0 | 103.5 | 100.0 | 139.4 | 85.0 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | - | - | - | - | 5.30 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.37 | 5.25 | 6.25 | 5.25 |
| | Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | | Q3: 2026-27 | Q4: 2026-27 | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | 1 | GDP at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.8 | | a | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | | b | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | | 2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 10.4 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 14.8 | 6.2 | | 3 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) | 31.2 | 30.4 | 35.0 | 29.5 | 31.1 | 30.4 | 35.0 | 29.5 | | 4 | GVA at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.0 | | a | Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | | b | Industry at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.3 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 6.1 | | c | Services at constant prices: Annual Growth (per cent) | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 7.0 | | 5 | IIP: Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 2.5 | | 6 | Merchandise Exports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 120.4 | 119.8 | 141.2 | 110.5 | 121.7 | 122.6 | 132.0 | 111.5 | | 7 | Merchandise Imports -BoP basis (in US$ bn.) | 232.0 | 222.4 | 370.0 | 203.0 | 226.0 | 211.2 | 400.0 | 201.7 | | 8 | Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) | 95.8 | 96.6 | 99.0 | 87.8 | 95.6 | 96.0 | 100.0 | 86.3 | | 9 | Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) | 96.4 | 90.0 | 140.0 | 80.0 | 88.8 | 85.0 | 135.9 | 70.0 | | 10 | Policy Repo Rate (end-period) | 5.53 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 5.25 | 5.62 | 5.75 | 6.50 | 5.25 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation | | (per cent) | | | CPI Combined (General) | Core: CPI excluding Food and Fuel# | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q1:2026-27 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | | Q2:2026-27 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | | Q3:2026-27 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | | Q4:2026-27 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation | | (per cent) | | | WPI All Commodities | WPI Non-food Manufactured Products | | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | | Q1:2026-27 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | | Q2:2026-27 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 2.9 | | Q3:2026-27 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 15.8 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 12.2 | 3.5 | | Q4:2026-27 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 13.8 | 1.1 | | Note: # : Fuel in the new CPI (2024=100) series represents two categories, viz., ‘electricity, gas and other fuels’; and ‘Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment’ which includes ‘petrol’, ‘diesel’, and ‘other natural gas (CNG)’. |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth | | Growth Range | Forecasts for 2026-27 | Forecasts for 2027-28 | | 12.0 per cent or more | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 11.5 to 11.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 11.0 to 11.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 10.5 to 10.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 10.0 to 10.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 9.5 to 9.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 9.0 to 9.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 8.5 to 8.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.01 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0.01 | 0.08 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0.08 | 0.28 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0.41 | 0.38 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0.32 | 0.14 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0.08 | 0.05 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0.06 | 0.04 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0.03 | 0.02 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 0.0 to 0.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | below 0.0 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation | | Inflation Range | Forecasts for Q1:2026-27 | Forecasts for Q2:2026-27 | Forecasts for Q3:2026-27 | Forecasts for Q4:2026-27 | | 9.0 per cent or above | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 8.5 to 9.0 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 8.0 to 8.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 7.5 to 7.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 7.0 to 7.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | 6.5 to 6.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.03 | | 6.0 to 6.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.06 | | 5.5 to 5.9 per cent | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 0.21 | | 5.0 to 5.4 per cent | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.38 | | 4.5 to 4.9 per cent | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.17 | | 4.0 to 4.4 per cent | 0.41 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.08 | | 3.5 to 3.9 per cent | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | | 3.0 to 3.4 per cent | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | | 2.5 to 2.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 2.0 to 2.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 1.5 to 1.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 1.0 to 1.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 0.5 to 0.9 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 0.0 to 0.4 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | -0.5 to -0.1 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | -1.0 to -0.6 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Below -1.0 per cent | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. | Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure; WPI: Wholesale Price Index.
|