Publications

PDF - Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey ()
Date : Oct 07, 2026
Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2026 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during September 10-20, 2026, in 19 major cities, with 5,987 responses.

Highlights:

  1. The current median inflation perception of households increased by 60 basis points (bps) to 8.4 per cent as compared to the previous round [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. Households’ median inflation expectations for the next three months and one year rose by 70 bps and 60 bps to 9.9 per cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  3. The proportion of respondents anticipating a rise in general inflation has inched up for both the time horizons [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1A and Chart 1B

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-25 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 77.8 0.90 81.6 0.90 83.5 0.78 80.7 0.92 81.9 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 51.5 1.20 57.2 1.21 60.4 1.16 57.1 1.21 59.0 1.15
Price increase similar to current rate 23.1 0.89 20.9 0.85 19.7 0.90 20.8 0.93 19.3 0.87
Price increase less than current rate 3.1 0.36 3.6 0.40 3.4 0.40 2.8 0.34 3.6 0.42
No changes in prices 18.5 0.85 16.8 0.89 14.0 0.71 17.4 0.89 16.2 0.86
Decline in prices 3.7 0.43 1.5 0.24 2.5 0.32 1.9 0.28 1.9 0.26
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 79.0 0.90 83.8 0.75 85.4 0.73 84.2 0.77 84.9 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 51.5 1.22 59.4 1.16 60.7 1.13 60.0 1.16 61.6 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 22.2 1.00 18.4 0.81 18.6 0.83 18.8 0.88 17.7 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.45 6.0 0.52 6.0 0.52 5.4 0.46 5.6 0.50
No changes in prices 14.2 0.80 12.4 0.68 10.4 0.61 11.9 0.69 10.8 0.67
Decline in prices 6.8 0.53 3.8 0.37 4.1 0.38 3.9 0.36 4.3 0.39
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 73.4 0.91 77.6 0.90 81.1 0.78 79.3 0.87 79.4 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 49.4 1.19 54.0 1.15 56.8 1.16 55.4 1.20 55.8 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 18.7 0.89 18.1 0.77 18.7 0.83 18.8 0.87 18.4 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 5.3 0.45 5.5 0.45 5.6 0.49 5.0 0.44 5.2 0.44
No changes in prices 20.1 0.80 19.0 0.86 14.6 0.69 16.5 0.80 16.7 0.77
Decline in prices 6.5 0.54 3.4 0.34 4.3 0.40 4.3 0.40 3.9 0.37
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 67.8 0.97 65.4 1.00 68.2 0.97 67.5 1.02 69.6 0.99
Price increase more than current rate 49.5 1.16 44.7 1.11 46.8 1.14 46.5 1.14 49.3 1.08
Price increase similar to current rate 14.1 0.69 15.9 0.69 16.9 0.79 16.7 0.77 16.2 0.69
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.39 4.9 0.44 4.5 0.42 4.2 0.40 4.1 0.40
No changes in prices 21.5 0.83 25.6 0.91 24.3 0.87 26.2 0.96 22.6 0.88
Decline in prices 10.7 0.62 9.0 0.56 7.5 0.51 6.3 0.46 7.7 0.49
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 77.1 0.88 78.4 0.90 78.3 0.87 77.9 0.89 78.4 0.90
Price increase more than current rate 54.9 1.15 57.8 1.14 56.3 1.13 56.7 1.13 58.8 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 18.9 0.87 17.0 0.73 18.0 0.83 17.5 0.81 16.3 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.34 3.6 0.37 4.0 0.42 3.6 0.36 3.3 0.35
No changes in prices 18.7 0.81 19.1 0.88 18.4 0.80 19.5 0.87 19.0 0.83
Decline in prices 4.2 0.41 2.5 0.30 3.3 0.36 2.6 0.29 2.6 0.32
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 66.1 1.00 69.8 1.01 71.1 0.92 68.6 1.03 69.7 1.00
Price increase more than current rate 46.2 1.17 48.7 1.14 49.1 1.16 48.6 1.14 49.6 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 15.7 0.72 17.2 0.72 17.4 0.80 16.5 0.78 16.1 0.71
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.40 3.9 0.37 4.5 0.47 3.4 0.35 3.9 0.36
No changes in prices 30.0 0.98 27.9 0.98 25.5 0.88 28.5 1.00 27.7 0.97
Decline in prices 3.8 0.43 2.3 0.28 3.4 0.38 2.9 0.34 2.7 0.29
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Sep-25 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 86.8 0.79 90.0 0.66 86.9 0.76 88.7 0.74 88.9 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 61.8 1.22 67.5 1.19 63.6 1.23 66.1 1.21 67.4 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 21.7 0.94 19.6 0.88 19.7 0.90 19.9 0.94 18.5 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 3.3 0.36 2.8 0.35 3.6 0.41 2.7 0.34 3.0 0.36
No changes in prices 10.0 0.70 8.3 0.61 10.1 0.65 9.0 0.67 9.2 0.68
Decline in prices 3.2 0.41 1.7 0.27 3.0 0.38 2.2 0.29 1.8 0.26
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 83.3 0.95 87.4 0.68 85.9 0.73 87.0 0.74 86.2 0.74
Price increase more than current rate 56.5 1.34 61.1 1.19 59.0 1.23 59.9 1.23 61.3 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 22.8 1.03 21.5 0.88 22.2 0.94 22.7 0.96 20.6 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.41 4.8 0.45 4.7 0.48 4.4 0.41 4.3 0.42
No changes in prices 11.5 0.80 9.3 0.60 9.6 0.59 9.6 0.67 9.8 0.64
Decline in prices 5.2 0.49 3.2 0.36 4.4 0.42 3.3 0.34 3.9 0.37
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 79.7 0.96 83.7 0.79 82.7 0.81 83.1 0.80 82.9 0.82
Price increase more than current rate 53.6 1.27 58.6 1.18 56.7 1.24 58.2 1.23 58.2 1.11
Price increase similar to current rate 21.6 0.96 21.2 0.85 21.6 0.94 20.8 0.92 21.1 0.85
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.42 3.9 0.40 4.5 0.44 4.1 0.40 3.6 0.37
No changes in prices 15.4 0.84 13.4 0.73 13.1 0.67 13.5 0.72 13.2 0.73
Decline in prices 4.9 0.46 2.9 0.33 4.1 0.44 3.4 0.35 3.8 0.36
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 78.1 0.90 75.3 0.92 75.0 0.92 75.7 0.90 76.9 0.91
Price increase more than current rate 58.0 1.17 52.6 1.19 51.5 1.22 52.6 1.22 54.9 1.14
Price increase similar to current rate 16.5 0.81 18.6 0.79 19.6 0.88 19.6 0.87 18.0 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 3.7 0.37 4.1 0.42 3.8 0.39 3.5 0.38 4.1 0.42
No changes in prices 14.2 0.72 18.7 0.80 18.7 0.81 18.9 0.82 17.7 0.83
Decline in prices 7.7 0.57 6.0 0.45 6.3 0.48 5.4 0.43 5.4 0.43
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 87.5 0.70 89.4 0.60 87.0 0.73 88.0 0.66 87.5 0.73
Price increase more than current rate 63.8 1.14 67.0 1.08 64.3 1.12 66.0 1.16 66.4 1.06
Price increase similar to current rate 20.3 0.93 18.5 0.80 19.0 0.83 18.9 0.90 17.9 0.77
Price increase less than current rate 3.4 0.35 3.9 0.41 3.7 0.41 3.1 0.34 3.2 0.33
No changes in prices 9.1 0.58 8.9 0.56 10.1 0.60 9.6 0.59 10.2 0.66
Decline in prices 3.4 0.39 1.7 0.25 2.9 0.38 2.4 0.30 2.3 0.28
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 81.2 0.83 82.6 0.78 81.3 0.87 80.7 0.90 81.5 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 58.4 1.15 57.2 1.15 56.4 1.21 57.0 1.25 57.9 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 18.5 0.83 20.8 0.83 20.6 0.92 19.9 0.87 19.6 0.83
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.41 4.6 0.43 4.3 0.41 3.8 0.39 3.9 0.40
No changes in prices 15.4 0.77 15.4 0.75 15.3 0.77 16.4 0.83 16.2 0.79
Decline in prices 3.4 0.42 2.1 0.27 3.4 0.42 2.9 0.34 2.4 0.28
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-26
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 9.1 0.11 8.4 0.14 10.1 0.10 9.9 0.21 9.7 0.12 10.0 0.14
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.3 0.13 8.6 0.20 10.3 0.13 10.1 0.16 9.9 0.16 10.1 0.14
Female 9.0 0.14 8.3 0.22 10.1 0.14 9.8 0.28 9.8 0.17 10.0 0.21
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.6 0.46 8.7 0.81 10.5 0.49 9.6 1.12 10.4 0.56 10.3 1.02
Other Employees 9.1 0.19 8.4 0.24 10.1 0.19 9.7 0.35 9.7 0.23 9.8 0.36
Self Employed 9.4 0.22 8.7 0.32 10.3 0.22 10.1 0.26 9.7 0.26 10.2 0.27
Homemaker 8.8 0.16 8.2 0.23 9.9 0.17 9.7 0.33 9.6 0.19 10.0 0.23
Retired Persons 9.9 0.36 9.6 0.69 10.7 0.36 10.4 0.28 10.1 0.42 10.2 0.45
Daily Workers 9.5 0.29 9.1 0.59 10.6 0.31 10.4 0.25 9.9 0.35 10.3 0.25
Other category 8.4 0.21 7.7 0.27 9.5 0.22 9.0 0.36 9.5 0.26 9.3 0.44
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 8.2 0.19 7.4 0.23 9.3 0.20 8.5 0.20 9.3 0.24 8.9 0.28
25 to 30 years 8.9 0.19 8.3 0.29 9.9 0.20 9.9 0.27 9.9 0.24 10.2 0.15
30 to 35 years 8.9 0.21 8.3 0.30 9.8 0.22 9.2 0.47 9.6 0.26 9.8 0.40
35 to 40 years 9.1 0.21 8.3 0.29 10.2 0.21 10.0 0.36 9.8 0.25 10.0 0.34
40 to 45 years 9.1 0.22 8.2 0.30 10.1 0.23 9.5 0.48 9.5 0.27 9.6 0.49
45 to 50 years 9.8 0.25 9.8 0.42 10.8 0.26 10.5 0.15 10.3 0.31 10.4 0.27
50 to 55 years 9.5 0.28 9.8 0.46 10.7 0.31 10.5 0.17 10.0 0.36 10.4 0.22
55 to 60 years 9.5 0.30 9.3 0.75 10.4 0.31 10.3 0.27 9.0 0.39 9.0 0.76
60 years and above 9.6 0.28 9.2 0.62 10.5 0.27 10.3 0.31 9.8 0.31 10.0 0.51
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 8.1 0.39 7.0 0.31 9.2 0.44 8.2 0.40 8.8 0.49 8.0 0.42
Bengaluru 6.4 0.21 5.5 0.07 8.1 0.23 7.3 0.26 8.4 0.26 7.9 0.24
Bhopal 9.7 0.55 9.2 1.11 10.6 0.50 10.4 0.32 9.6 0.62 10.0 0.71
Bhubaneswar 9.2 0.87 8.9 1.17 11.1 0.72 10.8 1.35 11.1 0.92 11.1 1.17
Chennai 8.0 0.36 7.0 0.51 9.3 0.33 8.7 0.52 9.8 0.41 10.1 0.40
Delhi 10.6 0.27 10.3 0.16 11.1 0.26 10.7 0.22 10.2 0.29 10.6 0.23
Guwahati 8.0 0.68 7.4 1.03 8.4 0.57 7.8 0.70 9.4 0.76 8.9 0.80
Hyderabad 9.0 0.26 8.6 0.67 10.5 0.27 10.2 0.36 10.2 0.36 10.3 0.33
Jaipur 7.8 0.21 7.9 0.26 8.5 0.30 8.3 0.39 8.5 0.49 8.6 0.37
Jammu 9.4 1.28 9.2 1.49 9.4 0.96 9.2 1.21 9.8 0.89 9.8 0.94
Kolkata 10.9 0.39 10.6 0.15 11.7 0.37 12.0 1.06 10.6 0.35 11.2 0.78
Lucknow 8.6 0.33 8.3 0.47 9.1 0.36 8.8 0.53 9.2 0.48 9.8 0.61
Mumbai 9.2 0.37 8.6 0.44 10.3 0.36 10.2 0.35 10.0 0.41 10.5 0.37
Nagpur 8.8 0.32 8.6 0.44 10.4 0.48 10.1 0.87 10.0 0.87 11.2 2.05
Patna 8.0 0.64 6.9 0.66 8.5 0.65 7.7 0.61 8.3 0.67 7.6 0.73
Thiruvananthapuram 7.8 0.90 6.2 0.84 9.5 0.91 8.5 1.17 10.9 0.92 10.5 1.18
Chandigarh 9.1 0.57 8.9 1.26 9.5 0.51 9.4 1.00 7.4 0.74 7.3 1.43
Ranchi 8.4 0.33 7.6 0.20 8.8 0.35 8.2 0.26 8.5 0.63 8.4 0.50
Raipur 11.2 0.78 10.7 0.94 12.4 0.75 12.7 1.69 11.8 0.94 13.5 1.62
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Sep-25 8.4 0.08 7.4 0.13 9.0 0.08 8.1 0.11 8.8 0.11 8.7 0.16
Nov-25 7.7 0.08 6.6 0.14 8.4 0.08 7.6 0.10 8.1 0.10 8.0 0.15
Jan-26 7.8 0.08 6.9 0.16 8.9 0.09 7.9 0.12 8.9 0.11 8.6 0.15
Mar-26 8.2 0.09 7.2 0.13 9.3 0.09 8.5 0.13 9.1 0.11 8.8 0.15
May-26 8.5 0.09 7.8 0.13 9.7 0.09 9.3 0.27 9.2 0.11 9.3 0.27
Jul-26 8.6 0.09 7.8 0.14 9.7 0.10 9.2 0.24 9.3 0.12 9.4 0.27
Sep-26 9.1 0.11 8.4 0.14 10.1 0.10 9.9 0.21 9.7 0.12 10.0 0.14
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Household durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-25 59.6 63.8 65.3 64.3 71.8
Nov-25 62.4 62.6 55.1 62.1 65.4
Jan-26 65.9 66.6 60.0 64.8 68.6
Mar-26 65.5 66.5 59.0 64.6 66.4
May-26 66.6 67.4 59.4 63.9 66.6
Jul-26 66.4 67.4 62.3 66.0 68.7
Sep-26 68.0 68.1 62.8 65.4 68.7
One Year Ahead
Sep-25 75.5 67.8 71.4 69.7 73.0
Nov-25 83.4 70.3 61.7 71.0 71.1
Jan-26 71.7 71.0 64.5 73.0 72.8
Mar-26 73.6 73.8 68.0 74.7 74.2
May-26 74.3 72.7 67.4 74.1 73.8
Jul-26 74.1 74.0 68.7 74.5 74.7
Sep-26 75.0 73.9 70.4 74.7 76.5

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-26
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
1-<2 1 19 24 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2-<3 2 9 103 86 34 14 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 252
3-<4 0 3 10 87 82 59 10 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 257
4-<5 0 2 5 11 126 102 61 20 15 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 348
5-<6 0 0 16 21 20 385 200 226 115 7 111 0 0 1 0 3 2 1 1108
6-<7 0 0 1 3 2 7 146 106 78 18 30 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 396
7-<8 0 0 0 4 4 5 9 174 106 51 63 2 3 1 2 0 2 0 426
8-<9 0 0 5 2 0 3 3 1 161 64 163 18 31 3 3 5 2 0 464
9-<10 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 3 75 40 19 27 7 5 6 7 0 196
10-<11 0 1 0 2 4 27 4 5 10 6 440 52 213 44 16 221 92 2 1139
11-<12 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 13 6 7 7 2 2 0 42
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 49 5 9 27 11 0 102
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 5 4 0 18
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 3 0 14
15-<16 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 1 95 154 0 267
>=16 0 1 1 2 0 6 0 0 1 0 24 0 2 1 0 22 832 5 897
Total 10 36 167 226 276 615 437 534 490 223 894 106 334 77 50 393 1111 8 5987

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-26
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
1-<2 10 6 19 9 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 53
2-<3 42 4 56 62 50 26 4 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 252
3-<4 31 0 3 42 55 84 22 6 7 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 257
4-<5 36 0 2 12 52 95 72 31 33 4 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 348
5-<6 108 0 7 7 13 194 159 220 139 33 200 4 2 1 0 16 3 2 1108
6-<7 46 0 0 1 2 5 79 72 93 30 52 4 7 3 0 2 0 0 396
7-<8 48 0 1 1 3 4 6 95 73 62 91 3 22 4 1 9 3 0 426
8-<9 45 0 1 1 3 2 0 4 74 48 155 26 65 6 4 19 11 0 464
9-<10 22 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 37 32 19 31 9 9 16 16 1 196
10-<11 110 0 0 2 1 10 2 5 5 2 252 36 176 40 24 303 170 1 1139
11-<12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 9 5 4 7 8 2 0 42
12-<13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 23 6 10 28 25 0 102
13-<14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 5 4 0 18
14-<15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 7 0 14
15-<16 24 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 75 162 0 267
>=16 109 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 2 0 12 0 1 1 2 16 745 4 897
Total 653 12 91 138 185 428 346 434 430 222 810 102 335 79 63 500 1151 8 5987

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation perceptions and expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 05, 2026. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.