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Date : Oct 04, 2017
Consumer Confidence Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the September 2017 round of the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS)1. The survey was conducted in six metropolitan cities - Bengaluru; Chennai; Hyderabad; Kolkata; Mumbai; and New Delhi - and obtained 5,100 responses on households’ perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income and spending.

Highlights:

I. The Current Situation Index (CSI)2 waned further into the pessimistic zone, reflecting deterioration in sentiments on the employment scenario, the price level and income (Chart 1).

II. The same set of parameters caused the Future Expectations Index (FEI) to slip further in the September 2017 round relative to its reading in the June 2017 round (Chart 1).

III. Households’ current perceptions on the general economic situation remained in the pessimistic zone for four successive quarters, with the outlook worsening (Table 1).

IV. The employment situation has been the biggest cause of worry for respondents, with sentiment plunging further into the pessimistic zone; the outlook on employment has also weakened in the last two rounds. (Table 2).

V. Respondents’ pessimism on the price level has also become accentuated in the recent period; however their outlook on inflation softened in the last two rounds (Table 3 and 4).

VI. With 27 per cent of respondents polling a fall in their current income, this overall sentiment moved into the pessimistic zone in the current round; the outlook on income, though optimistic, dipped further in relation to the June 2017 round (Table 5).

VII. Despite gloomy sentiment on income, more than 80 per cent of respondents reported increased spending over the past year which could partly be attributed to higher prices (Table 6).

VIII. The outlook on both essential and non-essential spending improved in the recent quarter (Table 7 and 8).

Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on General Economic Situation
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Improved Remained Same Worsened Net Response Will Improve Will Remain Same Will Worsen Net Response
Mar-16 39.9 30.3 29.8 10.1 54.6 27.2 18.2 36.4
Jun-16 40.2 27.9 31.9 8.2 54.2 25.5 20.4 33.8
Sep-16 44.6 30.1 25.3 19.4 57.7 24.3 18.0 39.6
Nov-16 49.5 26.6 23.9 25.6 63.0 18.7 18.3 44.8
Dec-16 45.7 24.1 30.3 15.4 66.3 16.6 17.1 49.2
Mar-17 35.6 24.4 40.0 -4.5 52.1 21.4 26.5 25.6
May-17 36.4 25.9 37.7 -1.3 52.4 23.5 24.1 28.3
Jun-17 32.4 27.7 39.9 -7.5 48.6 25.9 25.5 23.1
Sep-17 34.6 24.7 40.7 -6.2 50.8 22.8 26.3 24.5

Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Improved Remained Same Worsened Net Response Will Improve Will Remain Same Will Worsen Net Response
Mar-16 34.3 31.1 34.6 -0.3 50.4 31.4 18.1 32.3
June-16 35.6 28.7 35.7 -0.2 51.1 29.6 19.3 31.8
Sept-16 31.7 36.4 31.9 -0.2 50.5 30.5 19.0 31.5
Nov-16 37.6 30.9 31.4 6.2 55.7 26.6 17.7 37.9
Dec-16 31.0 29.8 39.2 -8.3 57.3 24.1 18.6 38.7
Mar-17 32.6 28.4 39.0 -6.4 52.8 24.5 22.7 30.1
May-17 32.5 28.3 39.2 -6.8 52.7 26.7 20.7 32.0
Jun-17 30.8 30.3 38.9 -8.1 49.6 29.3 21.2 28.4
Sep-17 30.1 26.3 43.7 -13.6 49.9 24.0 26.1 23.8

Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 77.3 12.4 10.4 -66.9 78.6 11.7 9.7 -68.8
Jun-16 78.1 12.5 9.4 -68.7 80.5 11.5 8.0 -72.6
Sep-16 78.2 17.2 4.6 -73.6 77.8 15.4 6.9 -70.9
Nov-16 82.2 14.3 3.6 -78.6 82.9 11.9 5.2 -77.7
Dec-16 73.9 18.3 7.7 -66.2 69.5 16.0 14.5 -55.0
Mar-17 85.8 9.1 5.1 -80.7 81.0 10.4 8.6 -72.4
May-17 83.3 11.3 5.4 -78.0 79.7 11.5 8.8 -70.9
Jun-17 85.2 11.4 3.4 -81.8 76.1 13.8 10.1 -66.0
Sep-17 87.7 8.7 3.6 -84.1 81.0 12.5 6.5 -74.5

Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)*
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 82.7 13.9 3.4 -79.3 82.4 13.2 4.4 -78.0
June-16 85.3 12.4 2.3 -83.0 83.3 13.0 3.7 -79.6
Sept-16 61.8 22.4 15.8 -45.9 64.3 22.4 13.3 -51.0
Nov-16 64.5 18.2 17.3 -47.2 66.8 18.6 14.6 -52.1
Dec-16 57.8 18.0 24.2 -33.5 62.4 17.1 20.6 -41.8
Mar-17 80.5 12.5 7.0 -73.5 79.9 13.8 6.3 -73.6
May-17 82.0 10.0 8.0 -74.0 82.6 10.9 6.5 -76.1
Jun-17 79.9 11.5 8.5 -71.4 78.7 13.5 7.9 -70.8
Sep-17 80.6 10.4 9.0 -71.5 78.6 14.1 7.2 -71.4
*Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase.

Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 31.3 48.9 19.8 11.5 52.1 39.3 8.6 43.5
Jun-16 29.9 51.8 18.4 11.5 51.2 39.9 8.9 42.3
Sep-16 31.2 48.6 20.2 11.1 52.3 36.4 11.3 41.1
Nov-16 37.3 45.5 17.2 20.1 57.1 33.4 9.4 47.7
Dec-16 27.1 47.1 25.8 1.3 54.8 33.5 11.7 43.1
Mar-17 27.7 47.3 25.0 2.7 51.8 36.5 11.7 40.1
May-17 28.2 48.0 23.8 4.4 52.8 38.1 9.1 43.6
Jun-17 23.8 53.8 22.4 1.4 47.1 43.5 9.4 37.7
Sep-17 26.6 46.8 26.6 -0.1 48.5 39.0 12.5 36.1

Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 78.0 9.9 12.1 65.9 78.5 10.6 11.0 67.5
Jun-16 82.7 8.4 8.8 73.9 82.2 10.2 7.6 74.6
Sep-16 70.3 24.1 5.7 64.6 79.1 17.0 3.9 75.2
Nov-16 73.2 23.6 3.2 70.0 77.3 20.3 2.5 74.8
Dec-16 73.5 20.8 5.6 67.9 78.3 15.8 5.9 72.4
Mar-17 84.4 13.4 2.1 82.3 88.5 8.3 3.1 85.4
May-17 83.4 14.9 1.6 81.8 86.0 11.9 2.0 84.0
Jun-17 81.3 17.2 1.5 79.8 83.5 13.7 2.8 80.7
Sep-17 83.2 15.0 1.8 81.5 85.8 12.3 2.0 83.8

Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending-Essential Items
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 79.6 9.3 11.1 68.5 78.6 11.9 9.6 69.0
Jun-16 83.0 8.2 8.8 74.3 81.1 10.6 8.3 72.8
Sep-16 79.1 16.9 4.0 75.1 82.5 12.7 4.8 77.6
Nov-16 81.7 15.2 3.1 78.6 85.1 10.9 4.0 81.1
Dec-16 76.9 18.4 4.7 72.2 77.5 14.9 7.7 69.8
Mar-17 85.8 11.1 3.1 82.7 87.0 9.2 3.8 83.2
May-17 85.7 11.6 2.8 82.9 86.9 9.6 3.5 83.4
Jun-17 82.2 15.3 2.5 79.7 81.9 13.5 4.6 77.2
Sep-17 85.0 12.6 2.4 82.6 86.1 10.9 3.0 83.1

Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending-Non-Essential Items
(Percentage Responses)
Survey Round Current Perception One year Ahead Expectation
Increased Remained Same Decreased Net Response Will Increase Will Remain Same Will Decrease Net Response
Mar-16 37.7 31.7 30.6 7.1 44.7 33.2 22.1 22.6
Jun-16 43.9 32.3 23.8 20.1 51.2 30.3 18.5 32.7
Sep-16 50.2 37.6 12.2 38.0 60.6 29.5 9.9 50.7
Nov-16 52.2 36.8 11.1 41.1 62.7 27.6 9.7 53.0
Dec-16 37.3 44.7 18.1 19.2 49.6 35.8 14.7 34.9
Mar-17 48.9 36.4 14.7 34.2 57.8 30.3 11.8 46.0
May-17 51.9 34.6 13.5 38.3 59.9 31.1 9.0 50.9
Jun-17 51.6 35.5 13.0 38.6 56.3 32.6 11.1 45.2
Sep-17 54.0 34.4 11.7 42.4 60.2 30.6 9.2 50.9

1 The survey results are based on the views of the respondents.

2 CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively. CSI/FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters.


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